Polls suggest Trump's approval slipping
1h
Some polls suggested President Donald Trump’s approval was slipping and Democrats gaining ground ahead of November’s U.S. midterm elections, increasing pressure on Republicans.
I continue to warn against complacence. It’s still vitally important that we vote and remain vigilant against Trump’s interference in our elections.
But with a little more than four weeks to go before the midterms, I’m breathing a wee bit easier. Here's why...
But with a little more than four weeks to go before the midterms, I’m breathing a wee bit easier. Here's why...
Sunday thought: What’s Up With Kansas?
The power of kitchen-table economics
robertreich.substack.com
October 4, 2026 at 2:05 PM
I continue to warn against complacence. It’s still vitally important that we vote and remain vigilant against Trump’s interference in our elections.
But with a little more than four weeks to go before the midterms, I’m breathing a wee bit easier. Here's why...
But with a little more than four weeks to go before the midterms, I’m breathing a wee bit easier. Here's why...
This Monday, I will participate (online) in a forum on the U.S. Midterm elections with @erinjenne.bsky.social & @rheinisch.bsky.social — organized by @kreiskyforum.bsky.social
“Realignment in America. How the Midterm Elections 2026 Are Shaping the Future”
“Realignment in America. How the Midterm Elections 2026 Are Shaping the Future”
Realignment in America. How the Midterm Elections 2026 are Shaping the Future - Kreisky Forum
The midterm elections will be a crucial test of the political and social divisions that have increasingly shaped the United States. One third of the Senate and all members of the House of Representati...
www.kreisky-forum.org
October 3, 2026 at 6:18 PM
This Monday, I will participate (online) in a forum on the U.S. Midterm elections with @erinjenne.bsky.social & @rheinisch.bsky.social — organized by @kreiskyforum.bsky.social
“Realignment in America. How the Midterm Elections 2026 Are Shaping the Future”
“Realignment in America. How the Midterm Elections 2026 Are Shaping the Future”
worth adding that the national parties -- who have invested a ton of resources into this question and have additional private information -- are behaving as if the public polling is basically right
You can basically break this down into "elections Donald Trump ran in" and "all other elections." For whatever reason, ppl on here keep ptsding themselves (and political news media keeps wishcasting) into thinking that a non-Trump election is going to act like a Trump one
curious
October 4, 2026 at 3:06 PM
worth adding that the national parties -- who have invested a ton of resources into this question and have additional private information -- are behaving as if the public polling is basically right
It's Oct 3. The midterms are a month away, but early voting has already begun in some states. Mail-in ballots will start circulating soon. Some of the usual suspects are already pushing the same "rigged election" rumors we've all heard before. This year, you can play along at home. bingo.cip.uw.edu
"Rigged Election" Bingo
Spot the tropes before they spread. Recognize the common story elements behind election rumors — can you get BINGO?
bingo.cip.uw.edu
October 3, 2026 at 3:15 PM
It's Oct 3. The midterms are a month away, but early voting has already begun in some states. Mail-in ballots will start circulating soon. Some of the usual suspects are already pushing the same "rigged election" rumors we've all heard before. This year, you can play along at home. bingo.cip.uw.edu
The CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker Poll is currently projecting a 229-206 Democratic House majority in the next Congress. Their current range for Democratic seats is 216-237 and for Republicans ones is 198-219.
www.cbsnews.com/news/midterm...
www.cbsnews.com/news/midterm...
CBS News Battleground Tracker poll finds Democrats maintain House advantage amid concern about prices
Here are 10 things to know about the 2026 midterm elections, in no particular order, based on what voters are telling us today.
www.cbsnews.com
October 4, 2026 at 1:22 PM
The CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker Poll is currently projecting a 229-206 Democratic House majority in the next Congress. Their current range for Democratic seats is 216-237 and for Republicans ones is 198-219.
www.cbsnews.com/news/midterm...
www.cbsnews.com/news/midterm...
This *was* true pre-2016 but it hasn’t been true for a while. For example, well-educated voters are far more likely to vote in non-presidential years and that bloc has swung decidedly Democratic over the past decade.
Republicans tend to have strong voting blocks from groups that vote in high percentages (ie white Evangelicals), whereas democratic voters seem to be younger and more easily discouraged.
October 3, 2026 at 3:01 PM
This *was* true pre-2016 but it hasn’t been true for a while. For example, well-educated voters are far more likely to vote in non-presidential years and that bloc has swung decidedly Democratic over the past decade.
I've posted an analysis of early voting activity, focusing on mail ballot return rates michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/mail-ballo...
Mail Ballot Return Rates as of the First Weekend in October
We’re still in the initial stages of the early voting process, so I strongly caution about drawing strong inferences about the direction of the election.
michaelmcdonald.substack.com
October 3, 2026 at 3:27 PM
I've posted an analysis of early voting activity, focusing on mail ballot return rates michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/mail-ballo...
Reposted by David Darmofal
NEW
CNN:
"Ahead of the November midterm elections, top Democrats are planning for doomsday scenarios for how President Trump and his administration could intervene in the voting process and laying the groundwork for a forceful response."
www.cnn.com/2026/10/04/p...
CNN:
"Ahead of the November midterm elections, top Democrats are planning for doomsday scenarios for how President Trump and his administration could intervene in the voting process and laying the groundwork for a forceful response."
www.cnn.com/2026/10/04/p...
Inside Democrats’ efforts to secure Election Day and respond to fears of Trump interference | CNN Politics
Ahead of the November midterm elections, top Democrats are planning for doomsday scenarios for how President Donald Trump and his administration could intervene in the voting process and laying the gr...
www.cnn.com
October 4, 2026 at 1:20 PM
NEW
CNN:
"Ahead of the November midterm elections, top Democrats are planning for doomsday scenarios for how President Trump and his administration could intervene in the voting process and laying the groundwork for a forceful response."
www.cnn.com/2026/10/04/p...
CNN:
"Ahead of the November midterm elections, top Democrats are planning for doomsday scenarios for how President Trump and his administration could intervene in the voting process and laying the groundwork for a forceful response."
www.cnn.com/2026/10/04/p...
Reposted by David Darmofal
In new NYT/Siena poll of AK, IA, KS, OH, & TX, all won by Trump by > 10% in 2024, Trump approve-disapprove:
AK: 41%-56% (June was 47%-49%)
IA: 40%-58% (June 44%-54%)
KS: 40%-55% (no poll in June)
OH: 38%-59% (June 44%-54%)
TX: 40%-58% (June 44%-52%)
Blue wave city.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
AK: 41%-56% (June was 47%-49%)
IA: 40%-58% (June 44%-54%)
KS: 40%-55% (no poll in June)
OH: 38%-59% (June 44%-54%)
TX: 40%-58% (June 44%-52%)
Blue wave city.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Toplines: September 2026 Times/Siena Poll of the Likely Electorate in Iowa
Results of a New York Times/Siena poll conducted among 606 voters from Sept. 22 to Oct. 1, 2026.
www.nytimes.com
October 4, 2026 at 12:28 PM
In new NYT/Siena poll of AK, IA, KS, OH, & TX, all won by Trump by > 10% in 2024, Trump approve-disapprove:
AK: 41%-56% (June was 47%-49%)
IA: 40%-58% (June 44%-54%)
KS: 40%-55% (no poll in June)
OH: 38%-59% (June 44%-54%)
TX: 40%-58% (June 44%-52%)
Blue wave city.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
AK: 41%-56% (June was 47%-49%)
IA: 40%-58% (June 44%-54%)
KS: 40%-55% (no poll in June)
OH: 38%-59% (June 44%-54%)
TX: 40%-58% (June 44%-52%)
Blue wave city.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Reposted by David Darmofal
Democrats are within reach of flipping four Republican-held governorships, opening a wide lead in Iowa and an expanding advantage in Ohio among likely voters, new Times/Siena polls show.
www.nytimes.com/2026/10/04/u...
www.nytimes.com/2026/10/04/u...
Democrats Lead Governor Races Deep in Republican Territory, Polls Show (Gift Article)
Democratic advantages in the races for governor in Texas, Iowa, Ohio and Alaska reflect deep unhappiness with President Trump and the economy. A Republican leads in Kansas.
www.nytimes.com
October 4, 2026 at 12:53 PM
Democrats are within reach of flipping four Republican-held governorships, opening a wide lead in Iowa and an expanding advantage in Ohio among likely voters, new Times/Siena polls show.
www.nytimes.com/2026/10/04/u...
www.nytimes.com/2026/10/04/u...
Poll: Latino voters swing away from Trump and Republicans www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...
Poll: Latino voters swing away from Trump and Republicans
Democrats have a significant lead among Latino voters in 2026 amid economic concerns, according to the NBC News/Telemundo poll, though the GOP has made some long-term gains.
www.nbcnews.com
October 4, 2026 at 1:54 PM
Poll: Latino voters swing away from Trump and Republicans www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...
Play along! #medialiteracy
It's Oct 3. The midterms are a month away, but early voting has already begun in some states. Mail-in ballots will start circulating soon. Some of the usual suspects are already pushing the same "rigged election" rumors we've all heard before. This year, you can play along at home. bingo.cip.uw.edu
"Rigged Election" Bingo
Spot the tropes before they spread. Recognize the common story elements behind election rumors — can you get BINGO?
bingo.cip.uw.edu
October 4, 2026 at 2:25 AM
Play along! #medialiteracy
Reposted by David Darmofal
Republican candidates are beginning to quietly scrub mentions of Trump from their websites due to his plummeting approval rate.
Don’t let their distance fool you. A vote for a Republican in the midterms is a vote for Trump.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
Don’t let their distance fool you. A vote for a Republican in the midterms is a vote for Trump.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/09/30/some-candidates-are-scrubbing-their-websites-here-is-why-that-matters/
www.washingtonpost.com
October 3, 2026 at 7:34 PM
Republican candidates are beginning to quietly scrub mentions of Trump from their websites due to his plummeting approval rate.
Don’t let their distance fool you. A vote for a Republican in the midterms is a vote for Trump.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
Don’t let their distance fool you. A vote for a Republican in the midterms is a vote for Trump.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
US job growth slows, easing pressure on Fed to hike rates before midterms www.politico.com/news/2026/10...
US job growth slows, easing pressure on Fed to hike rates before midterms
Employment gains last month came in below expectations, with previous estimates revised down.
www.politico.com
October 4, 2026 at 1:45 PM
US job growth slows, easing pressure on Fed to hike rates before midterms www.politico.com/news/2026/10...
Reposted by Ilya Somin
Democrats now have multiple paths to retake the majority in the US Senate despite a challenging map that had favored Republicans going into the midterms, according to NYT/Siena University polls. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
October 3, 2026 at 2:42 PM
Democrats now have multiple paths to retake the majority in the US Senate despite a challenging map that had favored Republicans going into the midterms, according to NYT/Siena University polls. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Fear sets in and Trump campaigns in red states ahead of midterm elections www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news...
Trump campaigns in red states ahead of midterm elections
With just a month to go before the midterm elections, President Trump is hitting the campaign trail to support Republican candidates in key races. This move comes as polling shows growing disapproval ...
www.nbcnews.com
October 3, 2026 at 11:30 PM
Fear sets in and Trump campaigns in red states ahead of midterm elections www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news...