Polls suggest Trump's approval slipping

Scholar power: 138.4%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 60%, Sociology 20%, Economics 10%, Communication & Media Studies 10%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Patrick Dunleavy	68%	46	138.4%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index

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Scholar power

0.0%

4.2 h

0

138.4%

Ranking score

0.0

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Reposted by Patrick Dunleavy

46%

Scholar power: 46.1%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 60%, Sociology 20%, Economics 10%, Communication & Media Studies 10%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Patrick Dunleavy	68%	46	46.1%

Formula for scholar power: sum of each reposter's field match × √reposter's h-index

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Scholar power

0.0%

4.7 h

3

46.1%

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0.0

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

by Jon Green

33%

Scholar power: 33.8%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 60%, Sociology 20%, Economics 10%, Communication & Media Studies 10%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Jon Green	23%	24	33.8%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index

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47.0%

6.0 h

6

33.8%

Ranking score

0.059

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Jon Green

@jongreen.bsky.social

worth adding that the national parties -- who have invested a ton of resources into this question and have additional private information -- are behaving as if the public polling is basically right

Daniel Gilmore @gilmored85.bsky.social · 9h

You can basically break this down into "elections Donald Trump ran in" and "all other elections." For whatever reason, ppl on here keep ptsding themselves (and political news media keeps wishcasting) into thinking that a non-Trump election is going to act like a Trump one

ashley (birthday month) 🕸️ @clearlyashley.bsky.social · 19h

curious

October 4, 2026 at 3:06 PM

by Robert B. Reich

56%

Scholar power: 56.6%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 60%, Sociology 20%, Economics 10%, Communication & Media Studies 10%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Robert B. Reich	31%	37	56.6%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index

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Scholar power

48.0%

7.0 h

1246

56.6%

Ranking score

0.609

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Robert Reich

@rbreich.bsky.social

I continue to warn against complacence. It’s still vitally important that we vote and remain vigilant against Trump’s interference in our elections.

But with a little more than four weeks to go before the midterms, I’m breathing a wee bit easier. Here's why...

Sunday thought: What’s Up With Kansas?

The power of kitchen-table economics

robertreich.substack.com

October 4, 2026 at 2:05 PM

by Timothy D. McBride

1%

Scholar power: 1.4%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 60%, Sociology 20%, Economics 10%, Communication & Media Studies 10%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Timothy D. McBride	1%	23	1.4%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index

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Scholar power

49.0%

7.2 h

1

1.4%

Ranking score

0.011

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Timothy McBride

@mcbridetd.bsky.social

Poll: Latino voters swing away from Trump and Republicans www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...

Poll: Latino voters swing away from Trump and Republicans

Democrats have a significant lead among Latino voters in 2026 amid economic concerns, according to the NBC News/Telemundo poll, though the GOP has made some long-term gains.

www.nbcnews.com

October 4, 2026 at 1:54 PM

by Timothy D. McBride

1%

Scholar power: 1.4%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 60%, Sociology 20%, Economics 10%, Communication & Media Studies 10%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Timothy D. McBride	1%	23	1.4%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index

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Scholar power

45.0%

7.3 h

3

1.4%

Ranking score

0.008

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Timothy McBride

@mcbridetd.bsky.social

US job growth slows, easing pressure on Fed to hike rates before midterms www.politico.com/news/2026/10...

US job growth slows, easing pressure on Fed to hike rates before midterms

Employment gains last month came in below expectations, with previous estimates revised down.

www.politico.com

October 4, 2026 at 1:45 PM

by David Darmofal

24%

Scholar power: 24.9%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 60%, Sociology 20%, Economics 10%, Communication & Media Studies 10%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 David Darmofal	25%	11	24.9%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index

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Scholar power

50.0%

7.7 h

3

24.9%

Ranking score

0.039

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

David Darmofal

@daviddarmofal.bsky.social

The CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker Poll is currently projecting a 229-206 Democratic House majority in the next Congress. Their current range for Democratic seats is 216-237 and for Republicans ones is 198-219.
www.cbsnews.com/news/midterm...

CBS News Battleground Tracker poll finds Democrats maintain House advantage amid concern about prices

Here are 10 things to know about the 2026 midterm elections, in no particular order, based on what voters are telling us today.

www.cbsnews.com

October 4, 2026 at 1:22 PM

Reposted by David Darmofal

8%

Scholar power: 8.3%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 60%, Sociology 20%, Economics 10%, Communication & Media Studies 10%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 David Darmofal	25%	11	8.3%

Formula for scholar power: sum of each reposter's field match × √reposter's h-index

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Scholar power

51.0%

7.7 h

27

8.3%

Ranking score

0.03

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Mona Burns

@monaburns.bsky.social

NEW
CNN:
"Ahead of the November midterm elections, top Democrats are planning for doomsday scenarios for how President Trump and his administration could intervene in the voting process and laying the groundwork for a forceful response."
www.cnn.com/2026/10/04/p...

Inside Democrats’ efforts to secure Election Day and respond to fears of Trump interference | CNN Politics

Ahead of the November midterm elections, top Democrats are planning for doomsday scenarios for how President Donald Trump and his administration could intervene in the voting process and laying the gr...

www.cnn.com

October 4, 2026 at 1:20 PM

Reposted by David Darmofal

8%

Scholar power: 8.3%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 60%, Sociology 20%, Economics 10%, Communication & Media Studies 10%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 David Darmofal	25%	11	8.3%

Formula for scholar power: sum of each reposter's field match × √reposter's h-index

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Scholar power

49.0%

8.2 h

32

8.3%

Ranking score

0.019

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

The Upshot

@upshot.nytimes.com

Democrats are within reach of flipping four Republican-held governorships, opening a wide lead in Iowa and an expanding advantage in Ohio among likely voters, new Times/Siena polls show.

www.nytimes.com/2026/10/04/u...

Democrats Lead Governor Races Deep in Republican Territory, Polls Show (Gift Article)

Democratic advantages in the races for governor in Texas, Iowa, Ohio and Alaska reflect deep unhappiness with President Trump and the economy. A Republican leads in Kansas.

www.nytimes.com

October 4, 2026 at 12:53 PM

Reposted by David Darmofal

8%

Scholar power: 8.3%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 60%, Sociology 20%, Economics 10%, Communication & Media Studies 10%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 David Darmofal	25%	11	8.3%

Formula for scholar power: sum of each reposter's field match × √reposter's h-index

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Reposts

Scholar power

45.0%

8.6 h

258

8.3%

Ranking score

0.029

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Bill Kristol

@billkristolbulwark.bsky.social

In new NYT/Siena poll of AK, IA, KS, OH, & TX, all won by Trump by > 10% in 2024, Trump approve-disapprove:

AK: 41%-56% (June was 47%-49%)
IA: 40%-58% (June 44%-54%)
KS: 40%-55% (no poll in June)
OH: 38%-59% (June 44%-54%)
TX: 40%-58% (June 44%-52%)

Blue wave city.

www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

Toplines: September 2026 Times/Siena Poll of the Likely Electorate in Iowa

Results of a New York Times/Siena poll conducted among 606 voters from Sept. 22 to Oct. 1, 2026.

www.nytimes.com

October 4, 2026 at 12:28 PM

by Erica Weintraub Austin

25%

Scholar power: 25.3%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 60%, Sociology 20%, Economics 10%, Communication & Media Studies 10%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Erica Weintraub Austin	13%	42	25.3%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index

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Scholar power

46.0%

18.7 h

0

25.3%

Ranking score

0.013

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Erica Weintraub Austin

@ericawaustin.bsky.social

Play along! #medialiteracy

Kate Starbird @katestarbird.bsky.social · 1d

It's Oct 3. The midterms are a month away, but early voting has already begun in some states. Mail-in ballots will start circulating soon. Some of the usual suspects are already pushing the same "rigged election" rumors we've all heard before. This year, you can play along at home. bingo.cip.uw.edu

"Rigged Election" Bingo

Spot the tropes before they spread. Recognize the common story elements behind election rumors — can you get BINGO?

bingo.cip.uw.edu

October 4, 2026 at 2:25 AM

by Erica Weintraub Austin

25%

Scholar power: 25.3%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 60%, Sociology 20%, Economics 10%, Communication & Media Studies 10%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Erica Weintraub Austin	13%	42	25.3%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index

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Scholar power

0.0%

18.7 h

2

25.3%

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0.0

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Erica Weintraub Austin

@ericawaustin.bsky.social

Love this! #medialiteracy

October 4, 2026 at 2:24 AM

by Brooke Harrington

28%

Scholar power: 28.8%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 60%, Sociology 20%, Economics 10%, Communication & Media Studies 10%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Brooke Harrington	22%	19	28.8%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index

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Scholar power

0.0%

21.2 h

9

28.8%

Ranking score

0.0

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Brooke Harrington

@ebharrington.bsky.social

Trump's victory in 2024 was largely down to mobilizing men--not just the well-to-do white men at the GOP core, but men who in ordinary election years often do not vote at all, such as young men & men of color. "Populist" fascists around the world win by getting typical non-voters to the polls.

October 3, 2026 at 11:55 PM

by Timothy D. McBride

1%

Scholar power: 1.4%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 60%, Sociology 20%, Economics 10%, Communication & Media Studies 10%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Timothy D. McBride	1%	23	1.4%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index

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Reposts

Scholar power

53.0%

21.6 h

6

1.4%

Ranking score

0.005

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Timothy McBride

@mcbridetd.bsky.social

Fear sets in and Trump campaigns in red states ahead of midterm elections www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news...

Trump campaigns in red states ahead of midterm elections

With just a month to go before the midterm elections, President Trump is hitting the campaign trail to support Republican candidates in key races. This move comes as polling shows growing disapproval ...

www.nbcnews.com

October 3, 2026 at 11:30 PM

by Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò

34%

Scholar power: 34.4%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 60%, Sociology 20%, Economics 10%, Communication & Media Studies 10%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò	27%	18	34.4%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index

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Scholar power

0.0%

22.1 h

225

34.4%

Ranking score

0.0

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Olúfẹ́mi O. Táíwò

@olufemiotaiwo.bsky.social

there are the normal reasons to be skeptical about polling (their performance in the last decade of so, thorny methodological problems) but is there any reason to think that polling error swings right instead of left this time around?

Poll Tracker 📊 @polltracker.bsky.social · 1d

NYT/Siena Senate Polls (9/21-9/30)

Texas: 🔵 Talarico 51% – 🔴 Paxton 45%
Alaska: 🔵 Peltola 50% – 🔴 Sullivan 43%
Ohio: 🔵 Brown 49% – 🔴 Husted 46%
Kansas: 🔵 Hamiliton 45% – 🔴 Marshall 45%
Iowa: 🔴 Hinson 48% – 🔵 Turek 47%

www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

October 3, 2026 at 11:00 PM

by Richard F. Catalano

6%

Scholar power: 6.1%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 60%, Sociology 20%, Economics 10%, Communication & Media Studies 10%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Richard F. Catalano	2%	104	6.1%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index

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Scholar power

0.0%

23.0 h

0

6.1%

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0.0

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Richard Catalano

@fabiancat.bsky.social

"it has become clear that Trump never intended to address the real problems he identified. His tariffs, deep tax cuts for the wealthy, extraordinary corruption, multiple vanity projects, and war on Iran are benefiting him, his family..."

heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/october-2-...

October 2, 2026

Trump held a campaign rally tonight in Mobile, Alabama, the city where, as Shawn McCreesh of the New York Times recalled, his MAGA rallies really took off in August 2015, when more than 30,000 people ...

heathercoxrichardson.substack.com

October 3, 2026 at 10:05 PM

Reposted by David Darmofal

8%

Scholar power: 8.3%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 60%, Sociology 20%, Economics 10%, Communication & Media Studies 10%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 David Darmofal	25%	11	8.3%

Formula for scholar power: sum of each reposter's field match × √reposter's h-index

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Reposts

Scholar power

53.0%

25.5 h

7

8.3%

Ranking score

0.009

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Jewish Dems

@jewishdems.bsky.social

Republican candidates are beginning to quietly scrub mentions of Trump from their websites due to his plummeting approval rate.

Don’t let their distance fool you. A vote for a Republican in the midterms is a vote for Trump.

www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/09/30/some-candidates-are-scrubbing-their-websites-here-is-why-that-matters/

www.washingtonpost.com

October 3, 2026 at 7:34 PM

by Robert Black

17%

Scholar power: 17.8%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 60%, Sociology 20%, Economics 10%, Communication & Media Studies 10%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Robert Black	14%	18	17.8%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index

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Scholar power

0.0%

26.2 h

20

17.8%

Ranking score

0.0

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Robert Black

@hurricanexyz.bsky.social

Also, it's not like the polls are telling a story that's wildly better for us than all the other indicators

Quite the reverse actually! They're arguably the most bearish factor

October 3, 2026 at 6:51 PM

by Cas Mudde

154%

Scholar power: 154.3%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 60%, Sociology 20%, Economics 10%, Communication & Media Studies 10%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Cas Mudde	72%	51	154.3%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index

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Reposts

Scholar power

54.0%

26.8 h

9

154.3%

Ranking score

0.113

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Cas Mudde

@casmudde.bsky.social

This Monday, I will participate (online) in a forum on the U.S. Midterm elections with @erinjenne.bsky.social & @rheinisch.bsky.social — organized by @kreiskyforum.bsky.social

“Realignment in America. How the Midterm Elections 2026 Are Shaping the Future”

Realignment in America. How the Midterm Elections 2026 are Shaping the Future - Kreisky Forum

The midterm elections will be a crucial test of the political and social divisions that have increasingly shaped the United States. One third of the Senate and all members of the House of Representati...

www.kreisky-forum.org

October 3, 2026 at 6:18 PM

by Dean Baker

8%

Scholar power: 8.2%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 60%, Sociology 20%, Economics 10%, Communication & Media Studies 10%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Dean Baker	6%	21	8.2%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index

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Scholar power

47.0%

27.4 h

0

8.2%

Ranking score

0.004

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

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News, ranked by scholars

Polls suggest Trump's approval slipping

Add to Home Screen

News, ranked by scholars

Polls suggest Trump's approval slipping

Scholar power: 138.4%

Scholar power: 46.1%

Scholar power: 33.8%

Scholar power: 56.6%

Scholar power: 1.4%

Scholar power: 1.4%

Scholar power: 24.9%

Scholar power: 8.3%

Scholar power: 8.3%

Scholar power: 8.3%

Scholar power: 25.3%

Scholar power: 25.3%

Scholar power: 28.8%

Scholar power: 1.4%

Scholar power: 34.4%

Scholar power: 6.1%

Scholar power: 8.3%

Scholar power: 17.8%

Scholar power: 154.3%

Scholar power: 8.2%

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