LightNews — News, ranked by scholars

Chris Geidner

@chrisgeidner.bsky.social

If you look just a bit, you see how wild this is. Dems are winning or leading in all but one of the most competitive races (and that’s the closest of all of those races).

They’re also winning all the races they were expected narrowly to win — and 2/3 of the seats Rs were expected narrowly to win.

District
Margin
% In
Calif. 22
D+30
57%
Colo. 5
D+6
85%
Fla. 14
D+5
>95%
Fla. 22
D+4
>95%
lowa 2
D+4
>95%
Ky. 6
D+9
>95%
Mich. 4
R+0.19
80%
Mich. 7
D+2
>95%
Mich. 10
D+5
73%
Mont. 1
D+6
80%
N.Y. 17
D+4
81%
N.C. 1
D+2
>95%
Ohio 7
D+9
く
85%
Pa. 1
D+5
92%
S.C. 1
D+1
>95%
Texas 15
D+25
>95%
Texas 35
D+11
94%
Va. 1
D+1.2
>95%

Results
Democrats expected to win narrowly
District
Margin
Ariz. 1
D+11
Ariz. 6
Calif. 48
Colo. 8
Fla. 25
lowa 1
lowa 3
N.J. 7
N.M. 2
N.C. 11
Ohio 9
Pa. 7
Pa. 8
Pa. 10
Texas 34
Va. 2
Wash. 3
Wis. 3
D+10
D+19
D+15
D+5
D+9
D+7
く
D+16
く
D+17
く
D+16
く
D+5
D+12
D+9
く
D+10
D+16
D+8
D+11
D+7
% In
77%
81%
57%
90%
>95%
>95%
>95%
>95%
>95%
>95%
94%
>95%
94%
>95%
>95%
>95%
87%
>95%
• Updates
Republicans expected to win narrowly
District
Margin
Ala. 2
Alaska 1
Ariz. 2
Colo. 4
Fla. 7
Fla. 9
Fla. 13
Fla. 27
Ind. 5
Maine 2
Minn. 1
Nev. 2
N.Y. 21
Ohio 10
Ohio 15
Texas 23
Va. 5
Wis. 1
D+8
R+10
D+0.8
D+1.4
R+0.59
D+0.52
R+0.8
R+0.45
D+3
D+0.24
D+0.1
D+6
R+2
D+1.6
D+7
D+8
く
R+1.5
D+4
% In
> 95%
67%
82%
94%
>95%
>95%
>95%
>95%
>95%
86%
>95%
92%
>95%
>95%
>95%
94%
>95%
>95%

November 4, 2026 at 8:45 AM

Andy Pearlman

@apearlma.bsky.social

um guys...

This time? Well, look for yourself. Here’s what our final polls this year would show if we had used the weighting from prior cycles:

Michigan: D+16 (today’s actual published result is D+11)

Alaska: D+6 (actual D+2)

Iowa: D+4 (actual D+1)

Kansas: D+10 (actual D+5)

Maine: D+5 (actual D+6)

Ohio: D+11 (actual D+5)

Texas: D+9 (actual D+7)

November 2, 2026 at 1:26 AM

Robert Black

@hurricanexyz.bsky.social

Full breakdown by Cook rating:

Safe D, 185 D wins, 1 uncalled (D lead)
Likely D, 16 D wins, 2 uncalled (D lead)
Leans D, 15 D wins, 3 uncalled (D lead)
Toss-Up, 11 D wins, 7 uncalled (D's lead all of them)
Leans R, 5 D wins lmao, 13 uncalled, D's lead in four of those, six others are close

November 4, 2026 at 7:07 PM

mady castigan✨ 🏳️‍⚧️

@mady.cat

You can literally run a trans woman in a red district in a deep South red state and win 22% more voters than the cis Democrat in the previous election.

Every Democrat who has been lying about trans rights being bad electorally needs to be removed from politics forever!

General election
General election for Alabama House of Representatives District 25

Phillip Rigsby (R) defeated Mallory Hagan (D) in the general election for Alabama House of Representatives District 25 on November 8, 2022.

Candidate

%
Votes
✔
Image of Phillip Rigsby
Phillip Rigsby (R)

57.9

10,813

Image of Mallory Hagan
Mallory Hagan (D)

41.9

7,837

District 25
Called by APR

Allison T Montgomery D✓APR call53.2%
Phillip K. Rigsby R46.7%
Write-In Other0.1%

D+6.5 2 of 2 ←D+22.5

November 4, 2026 at 5:36 AM

☀️

@stel.energy

a trans woman pushed a state house district in alabama over by 22 points

StatusAll precincts reported
LeadMontgomery +6.51,527 votes
Total votes23,400
Shift from 2022←D+22.5 shift, 22.5 points toward Democrats R+15.9 in 2022, D+6.5 now across the 2 counties reporting

November 4, 2026 at 4:34 AM

Kasey Kagawa

@punkey.org

D+2 in WD-Sen

November 2, 2026 at 4:01 AM

lodetail ✨

@lodetail.bsky.social

part 2 :D

November 3, 2026 at 9:57 PM

T. Greg Doucette

@gregdoucette.bsky.social

2024 was R+6; today is D+2

A D+8 swing is a positive start to the day 😄

VoteHub @votehub.com · 1d

Guam Non-Voting Delegate to the U.S. House

All precincts reported:
🔵 Alicia Anne Garrido Limtiaco – 15,645 (51.0%)
🔴 James Craig Moylan – 14,983 (48.8%)
⚪ Write-in – 49 (0.2%)

November 3, 2026 at 4:14 PM

iotemka | Zwiebel_chen 🏳️‍🌈

@iotemka.bsky.social

2-Faktor-Authentifizierung im Tierreich! :D

November 3, 2026 at 2:46 PM

Christian Stöcker

@christianstoecker.de

Democrats are flipping LOTS of seats that Republicans were expected to win. The are on course to even win some that Republicans were expected to win “easily” (they already took one in Missouri). This is a shellacking of epic proportions.

Results
-
• Updates
Democrats expected to win narrowly
to win narrowly
Republicans expected

District
Margin
% In
District
Margin
% In
Ariz. 1
D+11
77%
Ala. 2
D+8
>95%
Ariz. 6
D+10
82%
Alaska 1
R+10
68%
Calif. 48
D+19
58%
Ariz. 2
D+0.96
86%
Colo. 8
D+15
90%
Colo. 4
D+1.4
94%
Fla. 25
D+5
>95%
Fla. 7
R+0.59
>95%
lowa 1
D+9
>95%
Fla. 9
D+0.52
>95%
lowa 3
D+7
>95%
Fla. 13
R+0.8
>95%
N.J. 7
D+16
>95%
Fla. 27
R+0.45
>95%
N.M. 2
D+17
>95%
Ind. 5
D+3
>95%
N.C. 11
D+16
>95%
Maine 2
R+0.07
87%
Ohio 9
D+5
94%
Minn. 1
D+0.1
>95%
Pa. 7
D+12
>95%
Nev. 2
D+6
>95%
Pa. 8
D+9
94%
N.Y. 21
R+2
>95%
Pa. 10
D+10
>95%
Ohio 10
D+1.6
>95%
Texas 34
D+16
く
>95%
Ohio 15
D+7
く
>95%
Va. 2
D+8
>95%
Texas 23
D+8
く
94%
Wash. 3
D+11
87%
Va. 5
R+1.5
>95%
Wis. 3
D+7
>95%
Wis. 1
D+4
>95%

LIVE
Last updated 4:29 a.m. E.T.
Missouri Second
Congressional District
Election Results
‹ See all Missouri state results
WINNER V
Fred Wellman, a Democrat, wins the Second District in Missouri.
Race called by The Associated Press.
Latest results from 32m ago
Candidate
Fred Wellman
Ann Wagner*
Brandon Coulter Daugherty
Total reported
>95% OF VOTES IN E
NYT
Party
Votes
Pct.
Dem. 169,477 51.1%
Rep. 153,132
46.2
Lib.
8,782
2.7
331,391

November 4, 2026 at 9:32 AM

V 🔜 SC, NFC

@v-art.co.uk

Sing 2 :D

November 4, 2026 at 10:00 PM

zamiverse.art (comms open)

@zamiverseart.bsky.social

D-251 of drawing Startrix || future Startrix 2

#dailystartrix #mlp #fanart

November 2, 2026 at 5:27 PM

S.E. Danesti

@seedanesti.bsky.social

Angie Nixon (D) only lost in Florida by 2%

BLUE WAVE IS HERE 🌊

November 4, 2026 at 1:37 AM

Elizabeth N. Saunders

@profsaunders.bsky.social

Keep thinking about GA having not just 2 D senators but a D Gov and AG. And maybe...TX? Ohio? Just wow.

Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 1d

While people are understandably focused on the national level, the wave is going to reshape state legislatures, Governor's offices, AGs etc.
Not much legislation from DC in the next 2 years, but the action will be at the state level.

November 4, 2026 at 3:15 AM

Leah McElrath

@leahmcelrath.bsky.social

I just started crying.

Texas >

LEAN D
Candidate
Party
Votes
Pct.
James Talarico
Dem.
1,417,997
60%
Ken Paxton
Rep.
903,015
38
Ted Brown
Lib.
35,752
2

November 4, 2026 at 1:24 AM

Eric Columbus

@ericcolumbus.bsky.social

Wow look at NYT racial breakdown in key Senate contests. One of these states is not like the others!
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

Updates
Senate
House
Live Forecast
Governor
Precinct Maps
States v
Alaska
lowa
Kan.
Maine
Mich.
Miss.
N.C.
Ohio
Gender
Male
47% of U.S. voters
Female
53%
R+6
R+8
R+6
R+8
R+6
R+11
D+8
R+4
D+17
D+15
D+13
D+13
D+15
D+7
D+29
D+14
Race
White
70%
Nonwhite
30%
R+2
Even
R+3
D+2
R+8
R+49
R+3
R+6
D+29
D+43
D+50
D+26
D+59
D+70
D+71
D+61
Texas
Even
D+21
R+20
D+49

November 4, 2026 at 12:21 PM

David Burbach 🇺🇸

@dburbach.bsky.social

Local interst: Dems flip Cranston RI city council will go from 5-4 GOP to 7-2 D, holy crap

November 4, 2026 at 1:37 AM

daverg63.bsky.social

@daverg63.bsky.social

2 pour le prix d une😉

November 3, 2026 at 9:09 PM

S.E. Danesti

@seedanesti.bsky.social

Me watching Angie Nixon (D) only lose by 2 points in Florida, knowing that was the earthquake before a blue tsunami:

November 4, 2026 at 5:02 PM

Sky Marchini

@sky.skymarchini.net

>stops running 2 months ago
>>gets elected anyways

I N C R E D I B L E

November 5, 2026 at 2:52 AM

🏳️‍🌈🚲Cole🚄🚟

@coleurbanist.bsky.social

Men were D+2?! Democrats won men?!

November 4, 2026 at 8:20 PM

G Elliott Morris

@gelliottmorris.com

So, let me just issue a correction -- this may end up being premature. The CA ballots may not break quite as strongly as my model indicated, and current Dem House popular vote is D+11. It will be somewhere between D+12 and +14 I think.

So if it's D+12, that means our error wasn't -2, but exactly 0.

G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 14h

Strength In Numbers poll tied for most accurate survey of House popular vote, D+12 in our final survey vs D+13-14 likely result once all ballots are counted (and D+9 polling average) www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democrats-...