#AL90
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rogue-nhc-atlantic.bsky.social
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores.

tropical weather outlook over the next 2 days greyscale satellite image of Atlantic Ocean for NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. 1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): Recent satellite-derived wind data indicates that an area of low pressure located less than 200 miles to the south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing winds of 40-45 mph to the north of its center, which is gradually becoming better defined. In addition, the system is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are also showing signs of organization. If these current trends continue, the system is likely to become a short-lived tropical storm as soon as later tonight or on Friday while it moves northwestward to northward. Increasing upper-level winds, however, should prevent further development over the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas of heavy rain, and flash flooding are possible over the islands by Friday. Heavy rain and flash flooding could also occur well to the east along the coast of western Africa, particularly in western portions of Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, and southwest portions of Mauritania. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Forecaster Papin tropical weather outlook over the next 7 days color illustrated image of Atlantic Ocean for NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. 1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): Recent satellite-derived wind data indicates that an area of low pressure located less than 200 miles to the south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing winds of 40-45 mph to the north of its center, which is gradually becoming better defined. In addition, the system is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are also showing signs of organization. If these current trends continue, the system is likely to become a short-lived tropical storm as soon as later tonight or on Friday while it moves northwestward to northward. Increasing upper-level winds, however, should prevent further development over the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas of heavy rain, and flash flooding are possible over the islands by Friday. Heavy rain and flash flooding could also occur well to the east along the coast of western Africa, particularly in western portions of Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, and southwest portions of Mauritania. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Forecaster Papin
September 25, 2026 at 4:09 AM
tnvalleyweather.com
AL90 near Cabo Verde Islands now has an 80% chance of becoming a short-lived tropical storm tonight or Friday, up from 70%, bringing gusty winds, heavy rain, and flash flooding to the islands and nearby West African coasts before upper winds shut it down.
September 24, 2026 at 11:41 PM
wxdustin.bsky.social
Cabo Verde Islands face gusty winds, heavy rain, and flash flooding by Friday from AL90, which has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm; western Senegal, The Gambia, and Guinea-Bissau also face heavy rain risk.
September 24, 2026 at 7:51 PM
tnvalleyweather.com
Cabo Verde Islands, heads up! AL90 now has a 70% chance of becoming a short-lived tropical depression or storm today or Friday before winds shut it down, bringing gusty winds, heavy rain, and flash flooding your way by Friday.
September 24, 2026 at 11:37 AM
rogue-nhc-atlantic.bsky.social
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores.

tropical weather outlook over the next 2 days greyscale satellite image of Atlantic Ocean for NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. 1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system could become a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm later today or on Friday while it moves northwestward to northward. Increasing upper-level winds, however, should prevent further development over the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas of heavy rain, and flash flooding are possible over the islands by Friday. Heavy rain and flash flooding could also occur well to the east along the coast of western Africa, particularly in western portions of Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, and southwest portions of Mauritania. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Roberts tropical weather outlook over the next 7 days color illustrated image of Atlantic Ocean for NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. 1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system could become a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm later today or on Friday while it moves northwestward to northward. Increasing upper-level winds, however, should prevent further development over the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas of heavy rain, and flash flooding are possible over the islands by Friday. Heavy rain and flash flooding could also occur well to the east along the coast of western Africa, particularly in western portions of Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, and southwest portions of Mauritania. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Roberts
September 24, 2026 at 9:26 PM
rogue-nhc-atlantic.bsky.social
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores.

tropical weather outlook over the next 2 days greyscale satellite image of Atlantic Ocean for NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. 1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system could become a short-lived tropical depression or a tropical storm later today or on Friday while it moves northwestward to northward. Increasing upper-level winds, however, should prevent further development by the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas of heavy rain, and flash flooding are possible over the islands by Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fay are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fay are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. Forecaster Roberts tropical weather outlook over the next 7 days color illustrated image of Atlantic Ocean for NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. 1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system could become a short-lived tropical depression or a tropical storm later today or on Friday while it moves northwestward to northward. Increasing upper-level winds, however, should prevent further development by the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas of heavy rain, and flash flooding are possible over the islands by Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fay are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fay are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. Forecaster Roberts
September 24, 2026 at 4:47 PM
rogue-nhc-atlantic.bsky.social
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores.

tropical weather outlook over the next 2 days greyscale satellite image of Atlantic Ocean for NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. 1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system could become a short-lived tropical depression or a tropical storm later today or on Friday while it moves northwestward to northward. Increasing upper-level winds, however, should prevent further development by the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas of heavy rain, and flash flooding are possible over the islands by Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fay are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fay are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. Forecaster Roberts tropical weather outlook over the next 7 days color illustrated image of Atlantic Ocean for NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. 1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system could become a short-lived tropical depression or a tropical storm later today or on Friday while it moves northwestward to northward. Increasing upper-level winds, however, should prevent further development by the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas of heavy rain, and flash flooding are possible over the islands by Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fay are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fay are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. Forecaster Roberts
September 24, 2026 at 11:34 AM
rogue-nhc-atlantic.bsky.social
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of
the Azores.

tropical weather outlook over the next 2 days greyscale satellite image of Atlantic Ocean for NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. 1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is accompanied by a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system could become a short-lived tropical depression on Thursday or Friday while it moves northwestward to northward. However, strong upper-level winds should end the opportunity for development by the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas of heavy rain and flash flooding are possible there by Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fay are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fay are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. Forecaster Hagen tropical weather outlook over the next 7 days color illustrated image of Atlantic Ocean for NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. 1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is accompanied by a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system could become a short-lived tropical depression on Thursday or Friday while it moves northwestward to northward. However, strong upper-level winds should end the opportunity for development by the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas of heavy rain and flash flooding are possible there by Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fay are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fay are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. Forecaster Hagen
September 24, 2026 at 3:55 AM
rogue-nhc-atlantic.bsky.social
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

tropical weather outlook over the next 2 days greyscale satellite image of Atlantic Ocean for NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwest off the coast of western Africa is gradually becoming better defined, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday. This system could become a short-lived tropical depression on Thursday or Friday while it moves northwestward to northward. However, strong upper-level winds should end the opportunity for development by the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas of heavy rain and flash flooding is possible there by Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. 2. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Former Tropical Storm Fay): Showers and thunderstorms have increased with the remnants of Fay located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for development, this system could become a tropical depression again today or tonight if the current thunderstorm activity persists. The system is forecast to move westward during the next couple of days, and by the weekend upper-level winds should inhibit formation chances. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Blake tropical weather outlook over the next 7 days color illustrated image of Atlantic Ocean for NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwest off the coast of western Africa is gradually becoming better defined, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday. This system could become a short-lived tropical depression on Thursday or Friday while it moves northwestward to northward. However, strong upper-level winds should end the opportunity for development by the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas of heavy rain and flash flooding is possible there by Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. 2. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Former Tropical Storm Fay): Showers and thunderstorms have increased with the remnants of Fay located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for development, this system could become a tropical depression again today or tonight if the current thunderstorm activity persists. The system is forecast to move westward during the next couple of days, and by the weekend upper-level winds should inhibit formation chances. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Blake
September 23, 2026 at 9:25 PM
aiueo.ooo
Hopefully I’m not misunderstanding what you’re saying: You can see all of your cards here: semble.so/profile/al90... You can also select “Filters” → “Status: Not in collection” to see cards that aren’t in a collection (and you can save cards without putting them in a collection by not selecting one)
alan's cards — Semble
Explore alan's cards on Semble
semble.so
September 8, 2026 at 7:12 AM
nhcbot.bsky.social
NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One (formerly AL90) located over southern Texas, at 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC). https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/2066886484511080757
June 16, 2026 at 2:14 PM
nhcbot.bsky.social
2p Aug 23- A tropical storm is expected to form over the SW Atlantic by tonight (#AL90) and move northward. Elsewhere, some development is possible with a tropical wave (#AL99), and locally heavy rain & gusty winds are expected Sunday & Monday... https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1959316391066005699
August 23, 2025 at 6:10 PM
nhcbot.bsky.social
2am 8/23: The system well SSE of #Bermuda (#AL90) is expected to develop this weekend. There is also a low chance of formation with the system located over 1,000 miles east of the Windward Islands (#AL99). More info: hurricanes.gov https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1959123827000053932
August 23, 2025 at 5:37 AM
nhcbot.bsky.social
2p EDT Aug 22 - We are watching 2 areas behind Erin - the first is a system well SSE of Bermuda (#AL90) which is very likely to become a tropical storm this weekend. Interests in Bermuda should monitor for any watches/warnings. Over the centra... https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1958952345133293997
August 22, 2025 at 6:20 PM
nhcbot.bsky.social
8pm EDT June 22nd - An area of low pressure (#AL90) located about 450 miles E of Bermuda is showing some signs of organization. This system now has a medium chance (40%🟠) to become a TC over the next day or so, but still poses no threat to ... https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1936934597855432721
June 23, 2025 at 12:04 AM
subletteweather.com
15 minutes with that thing in the Atlantic this afternoon (aka AL90).
November 22, 2024 at 10:40 PM
rogue-nhc-atlantic.bsky.social
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

tropical weather outlook over the next 2 days greyscale satellite image of Atlantic Ocean for NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Atlantic (AL90): Satellite images and Air Force Reserve aircraft reconnaissance data indicate that an area of low pressure about 400 miles south- southeast of Bermuda continues to get better-defined, and recent satellite-derived winds indicate that the low pressure area has gale-force winds east of the center. This system is expected to become a tropical storm this afternoon or evening, with further intensification likely through Sunday while the low moves northward at 10 to 15 mph over the southwestern Atlantic. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system, though the threat to that island appears to be less than yesterday. For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent. 2. East of the Windward Islands (AL99): Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located about 650 miles east of the Windward Islands. Some development of this system could occur during the next couple of days while the system moves quickly westward at about 20 to 25 mph. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible across portions of the Windward Islands as the system moves through on Sunday and Monday. By Tuesday, conditions over the central Caribbean are expected to be unfavorable for further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Forecaster Blake tropical weather outlook over the next 7 days color illustrated image of Atlantic Ocean for NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Atlantic (AL90): Satellite images and Air Force Reserve aircraft reconnaissance data indicate that an area of low pressure about 400 miles south- southeast of Bermuda continues to get better-defined, and recent satellite-derived winds indicate that the low pressure area has gale-force winds east of the center. This system is expected to become a tropical storm this afternoon or evening, with further intensification likely through Sunday while the low moves northward at 10 to 15 mph over the southwestern Atlantic. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system, though the threat to that island appears to be less than yesterday. For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent. 2. East of the Windward Islands (AL99): Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located about 650 miles east of the Windward Islands. Some development of this system could occur during the next couple of days while the system moves quickly westward at about 20 to 25 mph. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible across portions of the Windward Islands as the system moves through on Sunday and Monday. By Tuesday, conditions over the central Caribbean are expected to be unfavorable for further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Forecaster Blake
August 23, 2025 at 6:09 PM
rogue-nhc-atlantic.bsky.social
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

tropical weather outlook over the next 2 days greyscale satellite image of Atlantic Ocean for NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Atlantic (AL90): Satellite images indicate that an area of low pressure has formed about 500 miles south-southeast of Bermuda, and the associated showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization. A tropical depression is expected to form later today or tonight, with further intensification to a tropical storm likely on Sunday while the low moves northward over the southwestern Atlantic. An Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this afternoon. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system as watches could be still required later today. For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent. 2. East of the Windward Islands (AL99): Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located about 850 miles east of the Windward Islands. Some development of this system could occur during the next few days while the system moves quickly westward at about 20 mph. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible across portions of the Windward Islands as the system moves through on Sunday and Monday. By the middle of next week, conditions over the central Caribbean are expected to be unfavorable for further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Forecaster Blake tropical weather outlook over the next 7 days color illustrated image of Atlantic Ocean for NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Atlantic (AL90): Satellite images indicate that an area of low pressure has formed about 500 miles south-southeast of Bermuda, and the associated showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization. A tropical depression is expected to form later today or tonight, with further intensification to a tropical storm likely on Sunday while the low moves northward over the southwestern Atlantic. An Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this afternoon. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system as watches could be still required later today. For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent. 2. East of the Windward Islands (AL99): Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located about 850 miles east of the Windward Islands. Some development of this system could occur during the next few days while the system moves quickly westward at about 20 mph. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible across portions of the Windward Islands as the system moves through on Sunday and Monday. By the middle of next week, conditions over the central Caribbean are expected to be unfavorable for further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Forecaster Blake
August 23, 2025 at 12:12 PM
rogue-nhc-atlantic.bsky.social
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

tropical weather outlook over the next 2 days greyscale satellite image of Atlantic Ocean for NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Atlantic (AL90): Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in association with a trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles north of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical storm is expected to form this weekend while it moves north-northwestward and then northward over the southwestern Atlantic. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system as watches or warnings could be required later today. For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. 2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located more than one thousand miles east of the Windward Islands have become less organized over the past 24 hours, and the system is currently being affected by strong wind shear. No development is expected through tonight while the system traverses the area of strong wind shear. The wave could reach a slightly more favorable environment Sunday and Monday as it approaches the Windward Islands, and some slow development is possible during that time. By the middle of next week, conditions over the Caribbean are expected to be unfavorable for further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Forecaster Hagen tropical weather outlook over the next 7 days color illustrated image of Atlantic Ocean for NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Atlantic (AL90): Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in association with a trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles north of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical storm is expected to form this weekend while it moves north-northwestward and then northward over the southwestern Atlantic. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system as watches or warnings could be required later today. For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. 2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located more than one thousand miles east of the Windward Islands have become less organized over the past 24 hours, and the system is currently being affected by strong wind shear. No development is expected through tonight while the system traverses the area of strong wind shear. The wave could reach a slightly more favorable environment Sunday and Monday as it approaches the Windward Islands, and some slow development is possible during that time. By the middle of next week, conditions over the Caribbean are expected to be unfavorable for further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Forecaster Hagen
August 23, 2025 at 6:11 AM
rogue-nhc-atlantic.bsky.social
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic
Ocean.

tropical weather outlook over the next 2 days greyscale satellite image of Atlantic Ocean for NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. 1. Southwestern Atlantic (AL90): Showers and thunderstorms have not become any better organized this evening in association with a trough of low pressure located a couple hundred miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical storm is very likely to form this weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward over the southwestern Atlantic. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system as watches or warnings could be required on Saturday. For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. 2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about midway between Africa and the Windward Islands remain disorganized. While there is still some chance that a short-lived tropical depression could form during the next day or so, the system is expected to move through a less conducive environment on Saturday. The wave could reach a slightly more favorable environment late this weekend into early next week as it approaches the Windward Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Forecaster Kelly tropical weather outlook over the next 7 days color illustrated image of Atlantic Ocean for NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. 1. Southwestern Atlantic (AL90): Showers and thunderstorms have not become any better organized this evening in association with a trough of low pressure located a couple hundred miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical storm is very likely to form this weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward over the southwestern Atlantic. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system as watches or warnings could be required on Saturday. For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. 2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about midway between Africa and the Windward Islands remain disorganized. While there is still some chance that a short-lived tropical depression could form during the next day or so, the system is expected to move through a less conducive environment on Saturday. The wave could reach a slightly more favorable environment late this weekend into early next week as it approaches the Windward Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Forecaster Kelly
August 23, 2025 at 12:34 AM
rogue-nhc-atlantic.bsky.social
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

tropical weather outlook over the next 2 days greyscale satellite image of Atlantic Ocean for NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. 1. Southwestern Atlantic (AL90): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of organization in association with a trough of low pressure located about 250 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical storm is very likely to form this weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward over the southwestern Atlantic. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system as watches or warnings could be required on Saturday. For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. 2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about midway between Africa and the Windward Islands remain disorganized. While there is still some chance that a short-lived tropical depression could form during the next day or so, the system is expected to move through a less conducive environment into Saturday. The wave could reach a slightly more favorable environment late this weekend into early next week as it approaches the Windward Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Forecaster Blake tropical weather outlook over the next 7 days color illustrated image of Atlantic Ocean for NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. 1. Southwestern Atlantic (AL90): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of organization in association with a trough of low pressure located about 250 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical storm is very likely to form this weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward over the southwestern Atlantic. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system as watches or warnings could be required on Saturday. For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. 2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about midway between Africa and the Windward Islands remain disorganized. While there is still some chance that a short-lived tropical depression could form during the next day or so, the system is expected to move through a less conducive environment into Saturday. The wave could reach a slightly more favorable environment late this weekend into early next week as it approaches the Windward Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Forecaster Blake
August 22, 2025 at 6:10 PM
rogue-nhc-atlantic.bsky.social
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

tropical weather outlook over the next 2 days greyscale satellite image of Atlantic Ocean for NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. 1. Near the Leeward Islands (AL90): Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located about a hundred miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is very likely to form this weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward, in between the northern Leeward Islands and Bermuda. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. 2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about midway between Africa and the Windward Islands have become less organized overnight. While there is still some chance that a short-lived tropical depression could form during the next day or so, the system is expected to move through a less conducive environment into Saturday. The wave could reach a slightly more favorable environment again late this weekend into early next week as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic and approaches the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. 3. Central Subtropical Atlantic: A small area of low pressure located well southwest of the Azores has weakened overnight, and no development is expected while it drifts northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent. Forecaster Blake tropical weather outlook over the next 7 days color illustrated image of Atlantic Ocean for NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. 1. Near the Leeward Islands (AL90): Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located about a hundred miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is very likely to form this weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward, in between the northern Leeward Islands and Bermuda. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. 2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about midway between Africa and the Windward Islands have become less organized overnight. While there is still some chance that a short-lived tropical depression could form during the next day or so, the system is expected to move through a less conducive environment into Saturday. The wave could reach a slightly more favorable environment again late this weekend into early next week as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic and approaches the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. 3. Central Subtropical Atlantic: A small area of low pressure located well southwest of the Azores has weakened overnight, and no development is expected while it drifts northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent. Forecaster Blake
August 22, 2025 at 12:13 PM
rogue-nhc-atlantic.bsky.social
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

tropical weather outlook over the next 2 days greyscale satellite image of Atlantic Ocean for NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. 1. Near the Leeward Islands (AL90): An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located a couple hundred miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward, in between the Lesser Antilles and Bermuda. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high..70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. 2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about a thousand miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands remain well organized. This system could become a tropical depression at any time, but the latest satellite-derived wind data indicate that the system does not have a well-defined circulation center. The system is expected to move into a less conducive environment later today through Saturday, but could reach a slightly more favorable environment again late this weekend into early next week as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic and approaches the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. 3. Central Subtropical Atlantic: A small area of low pressure located well southwest of the Azores is moving through a dry environment and only producing occasional showers. Upper-level winds appear unfavorable, and development chances are decreasing. The weak low is likely to dissipate over the next day or so as it moves little. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. Forecaster Hagen tropical weather outlook over the next 7 days color illustrated image of Atlantic Ocean for NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. 1. Near the Leeward Islands (AL90): An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located a couple hundred miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward, in between the Lesser Antilles and Bermuda. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high..70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. 2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about a thousand miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands remain well organized. This system could become a tropical depression at any time, but the latest satellite-derived wind data indicate that the system does not have a well-defined circulation center. The system is expected to move into a less conducive environment later today through Saturday, but could reach a slightly more favorable environment again late this weekend into early next week as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic and approaches the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. 3. Central Subtropical Atlantic: A small area of low pressure located well southwest of the Azores is moving through a dry environment and only producing occasional showers. Upper-level winds appear unfavorable, and development chances are decreasing. The weak low is likely to dissipate over the next day or so as it moves little. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. Forecaster Hagen
August 22, 2025 at 6:12 AM
rogue-nhc-atlantic.bsky.social
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

tropical weather outlook over the next 2 days greyscale satellite image of Atlantic Ocean for NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. 1. Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic (AL90): An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while it moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium..60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. 2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have become better organized this evening. However, earlier satellite-derived surface wind data showed that the system does not have a well-defined center. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development over the next day or so while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph, and a short-lived tropical depression could form. In a couple of days, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. 3. Central Atlantic: A small area of low pressure located well southwest of the Azores has moved into a drier environment and is currently producing occasional showers. Upper-level winds are only marginally conducive for development while the system moves slowly eastward over the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Kelly tropical weather outlook over the next 7 days color illustrated image of Atlantic Ocean for NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. 1. Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic (AL90): An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while it moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium..60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. 2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have become better organized this evening. However, earlier satellite-derived surface wind data showed that the system does not have a well-defined center. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development over the next day or so while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph, and a short-lived tropical depression could form. In a couple of days, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. 3. Central Atlantic: A small area of low pressure located well southwest of the Azores has moved into a drier environment and is currently producing occasional showers. Upper-level winds are only marginally conducive for development while the system moves slowly eastward over the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Kelly
August 22, 2025 at 12:35 AM
rogue-nhc-atlantic.bsky.social
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

tropical weather outlook over the next 2 days greyscale satellite image of Atlantic Ocean for NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. 1. Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic (AL90): An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while it moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium..50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. 2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have changed little in organization since earlier today. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development over the next day or so while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph, and a short-lived tropical depression could form. In a couple of days, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. 3. Central Atlantic: A small area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of the Azores is producing a few showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are only marginally conducive for development while the system moves slowly eastward over the next couple of days * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Pasch tropical weather outlook over the next 7 days color illustrated image of Atlantic Ocean for NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. 1. Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic (AL90): An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while it moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium..50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. 2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have changed little in organization since earlier today. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development over the next day or so while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph, and a short-lived tropical depression could form. In a couple of days, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. 3. Central Atlantic: A small area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of the Azores is producing a few showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are only marginally conducive for development while the system moves slowly eastward over the next couple of days * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Pasch
August 21, 2025 at 6:11 PM