[norman rockwell guy] i think it has been very bad that ARPU has become the dominant measure of business success
@whstancil.bsky.social vindication
August 28, 2025 at 6:18 PM
[norman rockwell guy] i think it has been very bad that ARPU has become the dominant measure of business success
Starlink ARPU -23% YoY, which is what you would expect when you add lower price point users. Here’s the thing: that means the unit economics are getting worse at the margin not better. Each incremental satellite launch is worth less margin not more. YIKE.
May 20, 2026 at 9:37 PM
Starlink ARPU -23% YoY, which is what you would expect when you add lower price point users. Here’s the thing: that means the unit economics are getting worse at the margin not better. Each incremental satellite launch is worth less margin not more. YIKE.
I'm proud of Anthropic for declaring this.
I also feel it is an easy business decision, since the ARPU of an advertising user is ~$50 in the wild success case, and the ARPU for a Claude Max user is $2400.
The ad-supported users are also the most likely to switch, as OpenAI will discover.
I also feel it is an easy business decision, since the ARPU of an advertising user is ~$50 in the wild success case, and the ARPU for a Claude Max user is $2400.
The ad-supported users are also the most likely to switch, as OpenAI will discover.
February 4, 2026 at 4:34 PM
I'm proud of Anthropic for declaring this.
I also feel it is an easy business decision, since the ARPU of an advertising user is ~$50 in the wild success case, and the ARPU for a Claude Max user is $2400.
The ad-supported users are also the most likely to switch, as OpenAI will discover.
I also feel it is an easy business decision, since the ARPU of an advertising user is ~$50 in the wild success case, and the ARPU for a Claude Max user is $2400.
The ad-supported users are also the most likely to switch, as OpenAI will discover.
Starlink operates at a profit, but with a long line of asterisks (dropping ARPU, congestion, heavily subsidized, looming competition), but their growth projections (from 10 million to 300 million users) are pure nonsense and nowhere close to justifying even a quarter of the IPO value
June 12, 2026 at 12:28 PM
Starlink operates at a profit, but with a long line of asterisks (dropping ARPU, congestion, heavily subsidized, looming competition), but their growth projections (from 10 million to 300 million users) are pure nonsense and nowhere close to justifying even a quarter of the IPO value
1. Offer the most powerful console gaming experience on the market
2. Increase hardware ARPU and profit margins across its console business
(4/19)
2. Increase hardware ARPU and profit margins across its console business
(4/19)
September 13, 2024 at 12:37 PM
1. Offer the most powerful console gaming experience on the market
2. Increase hardware ARPU and profit margins across its console business
(4/19)
2. Increase hardware ARPU and profit margins across its console business
(4/19)
The lower the ARPU, the higher the churn.
The lower the ARPU, the more the tech support (esp. relative to ARPU).
The lower the ARPU, the less likely to upgrade to higher ARPU later.
Going low $/mo for high N is not a bad strategy, but there are consequences.
The lower the ARPU, the more the tech support (esp. relative to ARPU).
The lower the ARPU, the less likely to upgrade to higher ARPU later.
Going low $/mo for high N is not a bad strategy, but there are consequences.
October 23, 2025 at 1:24 PM
The lower the ARPU, the higher the churn.
The lower the ARPU, the more the tech support (esp. relative to ARPU).
The lower the ARPU, the less likely to upgrade to higher ARPU later.
Going low $/mo for high N is not a bad strategy, but there are consequences.
The lower the ARPU, the more the tech support (esp. relative to ARPU).
The lower the ARPU, the less likely to upgrade to higher ARPU later.
Going low $/mo for high N is not a bad strategy, but there are consequences.
questions like "what the fuck is this memstock valuation when the biggest part of the justified value (xAI) is a shitty fifth place chatbot money pit nobody uses, and the only profitable company in the group is a congested satellite network with sagging ARPU about to be swamped by competitors"
June 11, 2026 at 6:44 PM
questions like "what the fuck is this memstock valuation when the biggest part of the justified value (xAI) is a shitty fifth place chatbot money pit nobody uses, and the only profitable company in the group is a congested satellite network with sagging ARPU about to be swamped by competitors"
Latest OpenAI numbers from the FT:
800m users, 5% paying (40m).
$13bn in ARR.
Implies a $325 annual ARPU, or $27/month per paying user.
70% of rev from subscriptions, rest is API.
$8bn loss in H1, prob $20bn run rate loss now? So basically spending $3 for each $1 in revenue.
800m users, 5% paying (40m).
$13bn in ARR.
Implies a $325 annual ARPU, or $27/month per paying user.
70% of rev from subscriptions, rest is API.
$8bn loss in H1, prob $20bn run rate loss now? So basically spending $3 for each $1 in revenue.
October 16, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Latest OpenAI numbers from the FT:
800m users, 5% paying (40m).
$13bn in ARR.
Implies a $325 annual ARPU, or $27/month per paying user.
70% of rev from subscriptions, rest is API.
$8bn loss in H1, prob $20bn run rate loss now? So basically spending $3 for each $1 in revenue.
800m users, 5% paying (40m).
$13bn in ARR.
Implies a $325 annual ARPU, or $27/month per paying user.
70% of rev from subscriptions, rest is API.
$8bn loss in H1, prob $20bn run rate loss now? So basically spending $3 for each $1 in revenue.
Anyways, expecting hardware prices to keep going up, for more premium targeted accessories to be made available, and for even more creative ways of packaging games into fancy editions at higher price points.
Idea will continue to be to drive higher ARPU from a more concentrated console audience.
Idea will continue to be to drive higher ARPU from a more concentrated console audience.
January 29, 2026 at 1:16 PM
Anyways, expecting hardware prices to keep going up, for more premium targeted accessories to be made available, and for even more creative ways of packaging games into fancy editions at higher price points.
Idea will continue to be to drive higher ARPU from a more concentrated console audience.
Idea will continue to be to drive higher ARPU from a more concentrated console audience.
lol spacex ARPU looks like the latest starship launch
![(in millions)
June 30, 2026: 12.0
June 30, 2025: 6.0
Starlink subscribers: 12.0 (for June 30, 2026) and 6.0 (for June 30, 2025)
Starlink Subscriber ARPU: We calculate ARPU as service revenue generated from Starlink subscribers during the period divided by (i) the average number of Starlink subscribers during the period and by (ii) the number of months in the period.
(dollars per month)
Three Months Ended June 30, 2026: $66
Three Months Ended June 30, 2025: $85
Six Months Ended June 30, 2026: $66
Six Months Ended June 30, 2025: $85
Starlink ARPU: $66 (Three Months Ended June 30, 2026), $85 (Three Months Ended June 30, 2025), $66 (Six Months Ended June 30, 2026), $85 (Six Months Ended June 30, 2025)
[This alt text added by gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview AI]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:y24gcrfugd3wnhzvl7or5ft5/bafkreifpxtfwc2tojbvcmkku6wfkbi6ljfbmcmcpxphbj23wfwkvmutohm)
August 4, 2026 at 8:35 PM
lol spacex ARPU looks like the latest starship launch
Opportunity areas should tariffs extend are, naturally, the big live service games, free-to-play, subscription and legacy content.
We may see upticks in both player count and engagement as well, but likely at a lower ARPU.
We'll see. It's... not great!
We may see upticks in both player count and engagement as well, but likely at a lower ARPU.
We'll see. It's... not great!
May 15, 2025 at 2:14 PM
Opportunity areas should tariffs extend are, naturally, the big live service games, free-to-play, subscription and legacy content.
We may see upticks in both player count and engagement as well, but likely at a lower ARPU.
We'll see. It's... not great!
We may see upticks in both player count and engagement as well, but likely at a lower ARPU.
We'll see. It's... not great!
The funny thing is that this is an advertiser's dream – a cohort of gullible, bovine people whose entire world is mediated by this one stupid bot being told what to think and buy – and yet it's still advertising so nowhere near enough ARPU to justify OpenAI's costs.
December 31, 2025 at 5:46 AM
The funny thing is that this is an advertiser's dream – a cohort of gullible, bovine people whose entire world is mediated by this one stupid bot being told what to think and buy – and yet it's still advertising so nowhere near enough ARPU to justify OpenAI's costs.
Spend no more than ARPU/25 for CPC because:
LTV ≈ ARPU × 20 months, CAC ≤ LTV/5, 1% CPC rate.
Not obvious from that summary, but the article explains, and shows you how to input your own numbers:
LTV ≈ ARPU × 20 months, CAC ≤ LTV/5, 1% CPC rate.
Not obvious from that summary, but the article explains, and shows you how to input your own numbers:
Bootstrapped CPC rule of thumb: ARPU/25
Bootstrapped and unsure about CPC? Use the rule of ARPU/25.
longform.asmartbear.com
June 11, 2025 at 2:36 PM
Spend no more than ARPU/25 for CPC because:
LTV ≈ ARPU × 20 months, CAC ≤ LTV/5, 1% CPC rate.
Not obvious from that summary, but the article explains, and shows you how to input your own numbers:
LTV ≈ ARPU × 20 months, CAC ≤ LTV/5, 1% CPC rate.
Not obvious from that summary, but the article explains, and shows you how to input your own numbers:
Starlink makes money, but it topped out and has to discount for new subscribers, ARPU fell from $99 to $66. On the rocket side, customer launches collapsed from 43 to 7 in a quarter (revenue -42%), the rockets mostly carry SpaceX's own satellites now. MechaHitler incinerates all profits anyway.
/6
/6
June 10, 2026 at 1:16 PM
Starlink makes money, but it topped out and has to discount for new subscribers, ARPU fell from $99 to $66. On the rocket side, customer launches collapsed from 43 to 7 in a quarter (revenue -42%), the rockets mostly carry SpaceX's own satellites now. MechaHitler incinerates all profits anyway.
/6
/6
April 25, 2025 at 5:41 AM
Starlink heavily discounted to boost subscriber count ahead of the IPO, causing a 23% decline in revenue per user, and the S-1 doesn't mention user retention. SpaceX wants to grow via satellite-to-mobile; they have no agreements with handset manufacturers that would make such possible.
/8
/8
May 21, 2026 at 10:43 AM
Starlink heavily discounted to boost subscriber count ahead of the IPO, causing a 23% decline in revenue per user, and the S-1 doesn't mention user retention. SpaceX wants to grow via satellite-to-mobile; they have no agreements with handset manufacturers that would make such possible.
/8
/8
9/ Truecaller: ARPU och MAU – intäktsgenerering och användarbas
April 12, 2025 at 1:35 PM
9/ Truecaller: ARPU och MAU – intäktsgenerering och användarbas
Ok but what does our ARPU look like and what are the MAU figures, for woke? The shareholders need to know
November 16, 2024 at 5:39 AM
Ok but what does our ARPU look like and what are the MAU figures, for woke? The shareholders need to know
Most SaaS companies report about a 1% conversion rate - you need 100 visitors to make 1 sale.
This means your maximum CPC should be 1% of your maximum CAC.
Here’s how to calculate all these things:
This means your maximum CPC should be 1% of your maximum CAC.
Here’s how to calculate all these things:
Bootstrapped CPC rule of thumb: ARPU/25
Bootstrapped and unsure about CPC? Use the rule of ARPU/25.
longform.asmartbear.com
March 10, 2026 at 9:33 PM
Most SaaS companies report about a 1% conversion rate - you need 100 visitors to make 1 sale.
This means your maximum CPC should be 1% of your maximum CAC.
Here’s how to calculate all these things:
This means your maximum CPC should be 1% of your maximum CAC.
Here’s how to calculate all these things:
"...our hardware sales strategy can be adjusted flexibly, and we intend to minimize the impact of the increased memory cost on this segment going forward by prioritizing monetization of the install base"
Very interesting. Going to try and goose the ARPU even more - but how is the question.
Very interesting. Going to try and goose the ARPU even more - but how is the question.
February 5, 2026 at 3:08 PM
"...our hardware sales strategy can be adjusted flexibly, and we intend to minimize the impact of the increased memory cost on this segment going forward by prioritizing monetization of the install base"
Very interesting. Going to try and goose the ARPU even more - but how is the question.
Very interesting. Going to try and goose the ARPU even more - but how is the question.
Won’t you people think about the ARPU?
December 18, 2025 at 11:23 PM
Won’t you people think about the ARPU?
Across the board, we see rising subscription prices, digital-only game releases, and a lack of hardware price drops, which are indicative of a focus on maximizing ARPU within a console market where platform holders are no longer seeing substantial install base growth. (16/19)
September 13, 2024 at 12:37 PM
Across the board, we see rising subscription prices, digital-only game releases, and a lack of hardware price drops, which are indicative of a focus on maximizing ARPU within a console market where platform holders are no longer seeing substantial install base growth. (16/19)
not to brag but i’ve been selling OF gg’s on the side lately and p sure the ARPU for my fans is one of the highest of all the sellers on this marketplace
February 24, 2026 at 4:34 PM
not to brag but i’ve been selling OF gg’s on the side lately and p sure the ARPU for my fans is one of the highest of all the sellers on this marketplace
Simple SEO strategy for a low ticket SaaS (<$49/m)
- To get sustainable long term traffic -
- 10 winning blog posts
- Each getting 500 views per month
- Converting at 1%
- So 50 New signups
- ARPU -> $20
- $1000 new MRR added every month
Simple NOT easy.
#IndieHackers #BuildInPublic
- To get sustainable long term traffic -
- 10 winning blog posts
- Each getting 500 views per month
- Converting at 1%
- So 50 New signups
- ARPU -> $20
- $1000 new MRR added every month
Simple NOT easy.
#IndieHackers #BuildInPublic
November 23, 2024 at 10:30 PM
Simple SEO strategy for a low ticket SaaS (<$49/m)
- To get sustainable long term traffic -
- 10 winning blog posts
- Each getting 500 views per month
- Converting at 1%
- So 50 New signups
- ARPU -> $20
- $1000 new MRR added every month
Simple NOT easy.
#IndieHackers #BuildInPublic
- To get sustainable long term traffic -
- 10 winning blog posts
- Each getting 500 views per month
- Converting at 1%
- So 50 New signups
- ARPU -> $20
- $1000 new MRR added every month
Simple NOT easy.
#IndieHackers #BuildInPublic
The Amphibious Reconnaissance and Patrol of the Taiwan (ROC) Marine Corps recently conducted simulated stay-behind operations during Exercise Han Kuang 42.
The ARPU simulated operating infiltration and sabotage missions with minimal identifiers from a safe house.
Video: Military News Agency
The ARPU simulated operating infiltration and sabotage missions with minimal identifiers from a safe house.
Video: Military News Agency
August 12, 2026 at 4:51 PM
The Amphibious Reconnaissance and Patrol of the Taiwan (ROC) Marine Corps recently conducted simulated stay-behind operations during Exercise Han Kuang 42.
The ARPU simulated operating infiltration and sabotage missions with minimal identifiers from a safe house.
Video: Military News Agency
The ARPU simulated operating infiltration and sabotage missions with minimal identifiers from a safe house.
Video: Military News Agency