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#IMF sees #GDP in #Canada growing by 1.4% in 2025, trailing only #Spain and the #US among 8 key #advancedeconomies
#cdnecon #growth
An IMF chart of its GDP growth forecasts for key global economies.
April 22, 2025 at 1:59 PM
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“Today, there are dead rats all around. New #temperaturerecords have been set and reset this summer, the earth has baked in #droughts, and #wildfires have raged. #Debt across #advancedeconomies is approaching historic highs.” www.nytimes.com/2026/09/01/o...
Opinion | A New World Order Is Coming. We Aren’t Ready.
We must be honest about the seriousness of the situation we’re in.
www.nytimes.com
September 1, 2026 at 3:59 PM
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🎙️The Budgetary Challenge of #AdvancedEconomies: Is an Impasse Inevitable?
Between rising interest rates, an ageing population, and massive rearmament needs, the budgetary equation for developed nations is becoming increasingly complex.
🎧 The full podcast 👉 bnpp.lk/E2qLJ0
#PublicDebt
February 25, 2026 at 4:45 PM
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1 Desjardins: “ #Sovereign #yieldcurves steepened following the announcement of a higher #NATO target, including for the #GovernmentofCanada ( #GoC). Canada’s #fiscal position is currently one of the most enviable among #advancedeconomies, leaving some room for potential new #spending” #cdnecon
June 25, 2025 at 5:22 PM
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“ #Advancedeconomies expand and remain #competitive not through additional #labor inputs but through #capital deepening, #technologicalprogress, and #totalfactorproductivity #growth.” www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/a...
A Stronger Work Ethic Won’t Fix Advanced Economies
Jun Du thinks German Chancellor Friedrich Merz learned the wrong lesson on his recent trip to China.
www.project-syndicate.org
March 9, 2026 at 5:22 PM
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🌍 🔍︎ #MiddleEast: A Moderate Impact on #AdvancedEconomies at This Stage, but Subject to Significant Uncertainties
Discover our four development scenarios in our latest #EcoInsight
👉 link.bnpparibas/bmW75E
#Inflation #Growth #Resilience #EuroZone #UnitedStates
Middle East: A Moderate Impact on Advanced Economies at This Stage, but Subject to Significant Uncertainties
April 29, 2026 at 6:30 AM
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📊 The latest issue of #EcoPerspectives, our quarterly #EconomicOverview of #AdvancedEconomies is available!
In this new release, Lucie Barette, Marianne Mueller and Anis Bensaidani examine the situation of #Spain, the #UnitedKingdom and #Japan.
👉 link.bnpparibas/Ey6Ogo
The Spanish economy is in a favourable long-term cycle, characterised by strong growth, underpinned by domestic demand. In 2026, outperformance relative to the Eurozone is expected to continue, but growth is projected to decelerate due to the weakening of its structural foundations, a lack of momentum and the inflationary shock. Following a strong performance in 2025, the UK economy will suffer in 2026 as a result of its dependence on imported commodities, with little fiscal headroom to address the situation. GDP growth is expected to fall to 0.7%. Inflation is expected to remain persistently above the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2% target, standing at 3.6% in 2026 and 3.3% in 2027. After a difficult 2025 marked by uncertainty over US tariffs, the de-escalation and the new government’s early actions pointed to a marked improvement in 2026. The year got off to a good start, with consumer confidence hitting a post-COVID high in February.
April 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM
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#EcoPulse — The monthly economic overview of #AdvancedEconomies and China.
In this new edition, Stéphane Colliac, Thomas Humblot and Lucie Barette examine #France, #Italy and #Spain

Find the full analysis here
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France Household confidence stable at a low level, standing at 88 in June and in May (91 in April). The balances of opinion on the past standard of living (nearly 20 points below its historic average), on the outlook for the standard of living (nearly 30 points below) and on the outlook for unemployment trends (nearly 25 points above) are stable but down. Stéphane Colliac, Thomas Humblot Italy The unemployment rate rose slightly in May (+0.4 pp to 6.5%, but -0.1 pp y/y). At the same time, the employment rate continued to rise (62.9; +0.1 pp). Wage growth stabilised at 3.4% y/y (+0.0 pp). However, it remains strong and well above inflation, thereby supporting household purchasing power. Lucie Barette Spain The labour market is breaking new records. The number of people registered with social security reached a historic high in June (21.9 million; +2.2% y/y). At the same time, the number of unemployed people fell to 2.4 million (the lowest since 2008), pushing the unemployment rate down (10.8%; -0.1 pp). Negotiated wages continued to rise (+3.4% y/y in May, the same level as in April). Lucie Barette
July 10, 2025 at 7:30 AM
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📊 The latest issue of #EcoPerspectives, our quarterly #EconomicOverview of #AdvancedEconomies is available!
In this new release, Stéphane Colliac, Thomas Humblot, Lucie Barette, Simona Costagli and Paola Verduci examine the situation of #Germany, #France and #Italy.
👉 link.bnpparibas/Ey6Ogo
After two years of recession, German growth began to recover in 2025. We expect it to strengthen in 2026, driven by the ramp-up of investment plans. We are, however, revising our forecasts downwards, as the German economy remains vulnerable to the current shock to energy prices. The deterioration of the geopolitical situation and the resulting energy shock have come at a time when the Italian economy was showing the first signs of a modest recovery. Real GDP grew by +0.3% q/q in Q4 2025, mainly due to a rebound in investment. Since rebounding in Q2 2025, French growth has been relatively robust. Things are not expected to have changed in Q1 2026, with growth supported in particular by precautionary spending. In Q2, higher inflation (and thus lower purchasing power) should weigh on household consumption.
April 29, 2026 at 10:30 AM
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📊 The latest issue of #EcoPerspectives, our quarterly #EconomicOverview of #AdvancedEconomies is available!

In this new release, Hélène Baudchon, Anis Bensaidani and Guillaume Derrien examine the situation of advanced economies, including the #USA and the #Eurozone

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Advanced economies are continuing to show resilience in the face of the US trade war. Despite significant fluctuations in trade in the first half of 2025, global trade has been broadly unaffected so far. Hélène Baudchon Growth in the United States has slowed significantly compared with 2024 and is expected to remain moderate in the coming months, while maintaining some dynamism. Inflation is gradually rising again, mainly due to higher tariffs, while the labour market is already showing clear signs of weakening.  Anis Bensaidani Growth in the Eurozone has so far proved fairly resilient to shocks (accompanied in particular by an acceleration in new lending against a backdrop of falling interest rates) and should gradually accelerate. Exports will continue to be weakened by Chinese competition and US protectionism.  Guillaume Derrien
September 25, 2025 at 9:55 AM
intellinews.com
Many highly indebted advanced economies face a grim fiscal outlook. Under current policies, the public debt ratios of countries including Belgium, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States are set to… Bne IntelliNews #IMF #DebtDistress #FiscalPolicy #EconomicOutlook #AdvancedEconomies
IMF: Can advanced economies avoid debt distress?
Many highly indebted advanced economies face a grim fiscal outlook. Under current policies, the public debt ratios of countries including Belgium, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States are set to deteriorate over the next two decades.
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April 27, 2026 at 4:51 PM
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Great insights in the latest #EcoPerspectives! Looking forward to reading the in-depth analysis on Germany, France, and Italy's economies. Thanks to the team for keeping us updated! 📈 #EconomicOverview #AdvancedEconomies
September 30, 2025 at 11:33 PM
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Insightful analysis! Looking forward to understanding the latest trends and challenges in Germany, France, and Italy. Thanks to the BNP Paribas team for this valuable update. 📈 #EcoPerspectives #EconomicOverview #AdvancedEconomies
September 27, 2025 at 1:48 PM
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Excited to dive into the latest #EcoPerspectives! Looking forward to insights from Marianne Mueller and the team on #Germany, #France, and #Italy's current economic trends. Thanks for sharing! 📉📈👉 bnpp.lk/ENBX2E #EconomicOverview #AdvancedEconomies
September 26, 2025 at 8:18 PM
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🎧 Conflict in the Middle East: analysis of the consequences for advanced economies
In this new episode, Lucie Barette and Marianne Mueller analyse the consequences of the current #EnergyShock triggered by the conflict in the #MiddleEast on #AdvancedEconomies
👉 link.bnpparibas/EMGjYb
June 13, 2026 at 8:04 AM
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📊 The latest issue of #EcoPerspectives, our quarterly #EconomicOverview of #AdvancedEconomies is available!
In this new release, Hélène Baudchon, Anis Bensaidani, Guillaume Derrien, Thomas Humblot and Céline Choulet examine the situation of the #US and the #Eurozone.
👉 link.bnpparibas/Ey6Ogo
Before the outbreak of war in the Middle East in late February, our 2026 forecasts for the major advanced economies pointed to higher growth and lower inflation. However, this new conflict in the Persian Gulf is a game-changer. The resulting energy shock is of a stagflationary nature. US growth remains robust, exhibiting strong momentum, but is still reliant on a narrow base – AI on the activity side and healthcare for jobs. The energy shock presents a new challenge, and its impact will depend on both the duration and severity of the Iran war. The conflict in the Middle East is undermining the prospects for a recovery in household consumption in the first half of the year, as rising energy prices are weighing on real wages. Real wages are expected to fall this year, with wage growth falling below inflation from Q2 2026 onwards.
April 28, 2026 at 3:30 PM
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🌐 #2026 Economic Outlook in Advanced Countries: Building on the Success of 2025
❓ Will the #GlobalEconomy, and #AdvancedEconomies in particular manage to navigate the challenges ahead as they did in 2025?
✨ Read Hélène Baudchon's analysis in her latest editorial for #EcoWeek
👉 bnpp.lk/EMnQxo
January 13, 2026 at 1:15 PM
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📊 The latest issue of #EcoPerspectives, our quarterly #EconomicOverview of #AdvancedEconomies is available!
In this new release, Lucie Barette, Guillaume Derrien and Anis Bensaidani examine the situation of #Spain, the #UnitedKingdom and #Japan
👉 bnpp.lk/oXLGBo
Spanish growth should continue to outpace Eurozone growth. It is underpinned by a dynamic labour market, which is generating gains in purchasing power and bolstering consumption. Lucie Barette Growth is expected to reach 1.1% in 2026, down from 1.4% in 2025, the latter benefiting from an exceptionally strong first quarter. However, GDP growth is likely to be unevenly distributed. Guillaume Derrien The Japanese economy is caught between a rock and a hard place. Growth has begun to slow towards its potential level. Japan can boast full employment, a buoyant corporate sector and a reduction in its debt-to-GDP ratio. Anis Bensaidani
December 22, 2025 at 8:00 AM
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📊 The latest issue of #EcoPerspectives, our quarterly #EconomicOverview of #AdvancedEconomies is available!
In this new release, Marianne Mueller, Stéphane Colliac, Thomas Humblot, Simona Costagli and Paola Verduci examine the situation of #Germany, #France and #Italy
👉 bnpp.lk/oXLGBo
The German economy is undergoing a strategic transformation, with increased public spending poised to significantly change its economic model. This transformation has the potential to boost business investment and household spending, while also reducing the country's reliance on exports. Marianne Mueller French growth has been rebounding since Q2 2025, driven primarily by aeronautics production, but also by business investment in a context of decreasing interest rates. Stéphane Colliac, Thomas humblot The Italian economy is showing some resilience: GDP experienced a modest rebound in Q3 2025, and moderate inflation is helping to maintain household purchasing power. We forecast growth to be around 1% over the next two years (1% in 2026 and 0.9% in 2027). Simona Costagli, Paola Verduci
December 21, 2025 at 8:00 AM
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📊 The latest issue of #EcoPerspectives, our quarterly #EconomicOverview of #AdvancedEconomies is available!
In this new release, Hélène Baudchon, Anis Bensaidani, Guillaume Derrien, Thomas Humblot and Céline Choulet examine the situation of the #US and the #Eurozone
👉 bnpp.lk/oXLGBo
After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026  Hélène Baudchon Pressures on public finances in advanced countries are mounting, but remain manageable The structural rise in interest rates is already complicating the situation, but its effects are not yet being fully felt. When they do, most countries will need to generate primary surpluses in order to stabilise their debt ratios. Growth in the United States is expected to come close to its potential pace in 2026. This resilience would mask “K-shaped growth”, supported by AI-optimism related investment and consumption by the wealthiest. Anis Bensaidani, Céline Choulet Growth in the Eurozone is expected to strengthen in 2026 (1.6%) primarily driven by investment and a resurgence in activity in Germany. Our forecasts indicate that inflation is likely to remain below the 2% target. Guillaume Derrien, Thomas Humblot
December 19, 2025 at 12:00 PM
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✨Not to be missed | Our economists take stock of the global economic situation at a dedicated conference.
Watch the replay of our latest conference on our website 👉 bnpp.lk/o4V1K0
#Economy #Growth #FiscalPolicy #MonetaryPolicy #PublicDebt #Tariffs #EmergingMarkets #AdvancedEconomies
Conference | Economic Research Global Economy: Looking back at 2025, looking ahead to 2026
December 15, 2025 at 11:45 AM
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📣 Discover “#EcoCharts Public Finances,” our new annual publication dedicated to analyzing #PublicFinances in the main #AdvancedEconomies.
You can read the full publication here
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Publication: EcoCharts Public Finances Title: Public debt set to increase in most countries by 2030
November 21, 2025 at 11:15 AM
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📊 The latest issue of #EcoPerspectives, our quarterly #EconomicOverview of #AdvancedEconomies is available!

In this new release, Lucie Barette, Arne Maes, Guillaume Derrien and Anis Bensaidani examine the situation of #Spain, #Belgium, #UnitedKingdom and #Japan.

👉 bnpp.lk/ENBX2E
After a strong first half of the year, Spanish growth should remain higher than that of its European neighbours in 2025 and 2026. Domestic demand is likely to remain the main driver, primarily supported by job creation, while the contribution of foreign trade is expected to become slightly negative. Lucie Barette Belgian growth fluctuated in the first half of this year, with a strong Q1 followed by a slowdown in Q2. Nevertheless, our nowcast for Q3 points to growth of 0.3% q/q, with renewed confidence among households and businesses. Export growth was subdued, hit by tariffs and the related uncertainty.  Arne Maes After solid growth in H1 2025, the second half of the year is expected to see a slowdown (under the weight of US trade policy and UK fiscal policy). Despite the downside risks on the labour market and industry difficulties, growth is expected to be at a higher and stable rate in 2026 thanks to monetary easing. Guillaume Derrien The Japanese economy has been showing some momentum for just over a year. However, this performance is likely to fade in the second half of the year, not least as a result of the tightening of US trade policy. The labour market remains tight, and inflation continues to exceed the 2% target. Anis Bensaidani
September 27, 2025 at 7:45 AM
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📊 The latest issue of #EcoPerspectives, our quarterly #EconomicOverview of #AdvancedEconomies is available!

In this new release, Marianne Mueller, Stéphane Colliac, Laurent Quignon, Simona Costagli and Paola Verduci examine the situation of #Germany, #France and #Italy.

👉 bnpp.lk/ENBX2E
The resumption of German growth has been hampered by US tariffs. However, the outlook continues to brighten thanks to the government's strategy, which is structured around a vast programme of public investment and incentives for business investment. Marianne Mueller Uncertainty persists buy the rebound in growth should be sustained. Unlike the political situation, other aspects of the French economy have improved (agricultural and aeronautical production, interest rates in the private sector, investment). Stéphane Colliac, Laurent Quignon In Q2 2025, Italy's real GDP fell by -0.1% q/q. On the supply side, this can be explained by a decline in value added in agriculture and industry and a stagnation in services. On the demand side, growth in domestic components did not offset the decline in net exports. Simona Costagli, Paola Verduci
September 26, 2025 at 7:30 AM
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🇺🇸 How high can they go? A longer-term perspective on long-term interest rates, with a focus on the #USA
➡️ After a decline of real long-term interest rates in #AdvancedEconomies, the direction has changed in recent years.
✨ William De Vijlder's analysis is in #EcoInsight
👉 bnpp.lk/bWZL2o
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September 3, 2025 at 9:58 AM