“52% of all autocratization episodes become U-Turns, which increases to 73% when focusing on the last 30 years. The vast majority of U-Turns (90%) lead to restored or even improved levels of democracy”
V-Dem data
V-Dem data
When autocratization is reversed: episodes of U-Turns since 1900
The world is in a “wave of autocratization.” Yet, recent events in Brazil, the Maldives, and Zambia demonstrate that autocratization can be halted and reversed. This article introduces “U-Turn” as ...
www.tandfonline.com
September 20, 2025 at 4:05 PM
“52% of all autocratization episodes become U-Turns, which increases to 73% when focusing on the last 30 years. The vast majority of U-Turns (90%) lead to restored or even improved levels of democracy”
V-Dem data
V-Dem data
The brakes on runaway autocratization are off
Texas Republicans have locked Democratic Rep. Nicole Collier inside the state house chamber and refuse to allow her to leave.
They are requiring Democrats to sign “permission slips” and have a police escort in order to leave the chamber, and she refuses to sign it.
They are requiring Democrats to sign “permission slips” and have a police escort in order to leave the chamber, and she refuses to sign it.
August 19, 2025 at 1:36 AM
The brakes on runaway autocratization are off
Evidensbaserat hopp från @vdeminstitute.bsky.social:
"Out of the 44 cases where autocratization started
in a democracy, (...) almost all of them became democracies again – the average turnaround happens around 5 years after the start
of autocratization."
Working paper 147
v-dem.net/wp.html
"Out of the 44 cases where autocratization started
in a democracy, (...) almost all of them became democracies again – the average turnaround happens around 5 years after the start
of autocratization."
Working paper 147
v-dem.net/wp.html
January 24, 2025 at 9:47 AM
Evidensbaserat hopp från @vdeminstitute.bsky.social:
"Out of the 44 cases where autocratization started
in a democracy, (...) almost all of them became democracies again – the average turnaround happens around 5 years after the start
of autocratization."
Working paper 147
v-dem.net/wp.html
"Out of the 44 cases where autocratization started
in a democracy, (...) almost all of them became democracies again – the average turnaround happens around 5 years after the start
of autocratization."
Working paper 147
v-dem.net/wp.html
btw I'm talking about a phenomenon not a political party.
When autocratization is reversed: episodes of U-Turns since 1900
The world is in a “wave of autocratization.” Yet, recent events in Brazil, the Maldives, and Zambia demonstrate that autocratization can be halted and reversed. This article introduces “U-Turn” as ...
www.tandfonline.com
September 16, 2026 at 11:26 PM
btw I'm talking about a phenomenon not a political party.
The next step in the Russian autocratization playbook is to sell government holdings off to cronies
Trump has discussed privatizing the Post Office. Removing its independence is a step toward doing that.
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
Trump expected to take control of USPS, fire postal board, officials say
The move threatens to upend trillions of dollars in ecommerce business and the 250 year-old Postal Service.
www.washingtonpost.com
February 21, 2025 at 1:45 AM
The next step in the Russian autocratization playbook is to sell government holdings off to cronies
Further signs of creeping autocratization
This seems…troubling. “What we are clearly seeing is that with this administration, they are not responding to congressional inquiries.” @nicolefoy.bsky.social
Congress Has Demanded Answers to ICE Detaining Americans. The Administration Has Responded With Silence.
Amid increasing reports that U.S. citizens have been caught up in the Trump administration’s immigration dragnet, a dozen members of Congress have written to the government with pointed questions. Non...
www.propublica.org
April 14, 2025 at 1:05 PM
Further signs of creeping autocratization
we shouldn't be altering our behaviour as democratic citizens. I expect freedom of speech and the rule of law and won't adjust to creeping US autocratization by self-censoring. We should be exposing and confronting autocratization in whichever form we encounter it.
March 28, 2025 at 4:25 PM
we shouldn't be altering our behaviour as democratic citizens. I expect freedom of speech and the rule of law and won't adjust to creeping US autocratization by self-censoring. We should be exposing and confronting autocratization in whichever form we encounter it.
An antidote to despair and cynicism -- academics studying countries facing autocratic takeovers document that more than half of these episodes lead to "U-turns" and more than 90% result in strengthened democracies. Up to us to make it so!
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
When autocratization is reversed: episodes of U-Turns since 1900
The world is in a “wave of autocratization.” Yet, recent events in Brazil, the Maldives, and Zambia demonstrate that autocratization can be halted and reversed. This article introduces “U-Turn” as ...
www.tandfonline.com
September 20, 2025 at 7:25 PM
An antidote to despair and cynicism -- academics studying countries facing autocratic takeovers document that more than half of these episodes lead to "U-turns" and more than 90% result in strengthened democracies. Up to us to make it so!
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
reposting the text image referenced above, this time with Alt text
September 21, 2025 at 6:11 PM
reposting the text image referenced above, this time with Alt text
Arrests of lawmakers, investigations of political opponents, and the Trump administration's statements about Habeas Corpus are signs of autocratization in the U.S.A. But there's a good chance we can reverse the course.
My latest for @americandoom.bsky.social
www.american-doom.com/p/autocratiz...
My latest for @americandoom.bsky.social
www.american-doom.com/p/autocratiz...
Autocratization In Action
Arrests of lawmakers, investigations of political opponents, and the Trump administration's disturbing statements about Habeas Corpus signify the ongoing process of autocratization in the U.S.A.
www.american-doom.com
May 23, 2025 at 3:05 PM
Arrests of lawmakers, investigations of political opponents, and the Trump administration's statements about Habeas Corpus are signs of autocratization in the U.S.A. But there's a good chance we can reverse the course.
My latest for @americandoom.bsky.social
www.american-doom.com/p/autocratiz...
My latest for @americandoom.bsky.social
www.american-doom.com/p/autocratiz...
"A key finding is that 52% of all autocratization episodes become U-Turns, which increases to 73% when focusing on the last 30 years. The vast majority of U-Turns (90%) lead to restored or even improved levels of democracy"
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
When autocratization is reversed: episodes of U-Turns since 1900
The world is in a “wave of autocratization.” Yet, recent events in Brazil, the Maldives, and Zambia demonstrate that autocratization can be halted and reversed. This article introduces “U-Turn” as ...
www.tandfonline.com
January 31, 2025 at 1:37 PM
"A key finding is that 52% of all autocratization episodes become U-Turns, which increases to 73% when focusing on the last 30 years. The vast majority of U-Turns (90%) lead to restored or even improved levels of democracy"
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Autocracies outnumber democracies for the first time globally in 20 years says new V-Dem assessment. United States "definitely" to be downgraded due to unprecedented and rapid autocratization www.democracywithoutborders.org/36317/autocr...
Autocracies outnumber democracies for the first time in 20 years: V-Dem
The 2025 V-Dem report finds that 45 countries are affected by autocratization and 19 are in episodes of democratization.
www.democracywithoutborders.org
March 27, 2025 at 8:29 PM
Autocracies outnumber democracies for the first time globally in 20 years says new V-Dem assessment. United States "definitely" to be downgraded due to unprecedented and rapid autocratization www.democracywithoutborders.org/36317/autocr...
🚨New publication!
We introduce the “U-Turn” as a new regime transformation where autocratization is closely followed by and linked to subsequent democratization.
Key findings:
• 52% of autocratizations become U-Turns,
• 73% when focusing on the last 30 years
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... 🧵
We introduce the “U-Turn” as a new regime transformation where autocratization is closely followed by and linked to subsequent democratization.
Key findings:
• 52% of autocratizations become U-Turns,
• 73% when focusing on the last 30 years
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... 🧵
When autocratization is reversed: episodes of U-Turns since 1900
The world is in a “wave of autocratization.” Yet, recent events in Brazil, the Maldives, and Zambia demonstrate that autocratization can be halted and reversed. This article introduces “U-Turn” as ...
www.tandfonline.com
January 27, 2025 at 1:50 PM
🚨New publication!
We introduce the “U-Turn” as a new regime transformation where autocratization is closely followed by and linked to subsequent democratization.
Key findings:
• 52% of autocratizations become U-Turns,
• 73% when focusing on the last 30 years
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... 🧵
We introduce the “U-Turn” as a new regime transformation where autocratization is closely followed by and linked to subsequent democratization.
Key findings:
• 52% of autocratizations become U-Turns,
• 73% when focusing on the last 30 years
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... 🧵
All my life I have studied democratization and autocratization. My 1st field trip was to newly democratic Argentina. I then added autocracies to my portfolio: Cuba, Ven, etc. I think I can recognize the stages of transition to authoritarianism. Here are the boxes Trump has already checked off.
February 16, 2025 at 12:10 PM
All my life I have studied democratization and autocratization. My 1st field trip was to newly democratic Argentina. I then added autocracies to my portfolio: Cuba, Ven, etc. I think I can recognize the stages of transition to authoritarianism. Here are the boxes Trump has already checked off.
Government increasing the costs of opposing it; clear indication of autocratization
Exclusive: The Department of Health and Human Services has terminated seven grants totaling millions of dollars to the American Academy of Pediatrics. The association has been one of the harshest critics of Health Secretary RFK Jr.’s changes to federal vaccine policy.
American Academy of Pediatrics loses HHS funding after criticizing RFK Jr.
HHS cuts key AAP grants, citing concerns about “identity-based language” and insufficient focus on agency priorities. The organization said the cuts could harm child health.
www.washingtonpost.com
December 17, 2025 at 8:10 PM
Government increasing the costs of opposing it; clear indication of autocratization
Democracies are under pressure worldwide. As Vanessa Boese and Sebastian Hellmeier show in their contribution to the Online-Mitteilungen, we are globally in an ongoing wave of autocratization. The two researchers look at the current transformations of democracy and more. www.wzb.eu/en/article/a...
Autocratization and its consequences
In many parts of the world, democracies are under siege. Globally, we are in an ongoing wave of autocratization. In their research, Vanessa Boese and Sebatian Hellmeier monitor current...
www.wzb.eu
November 27, 2024 at 5:42 PM
Democracies are under pressure worldwide. As Vanessa Boese and Sebastian Hellmeier show in their contribution to the Online-Mitteilungen, we are globally in an ongoing wave of autocratization. The two researchers look at the current transformations of democracy and more. www.wzb.eu/en/article/a...
Like, I can't emphasize enough how much the simultaneous autocratization of power in the federal government with the enfeeblement of the individual vested with that power should freak you out
Jake Tapper did a whole interview with Trump by text message? Which means he can't actually confirm it was him. And now everyone's asking even more than before very reasonable questions about the wannabe dictator's health.
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/a...
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/a...
October 6, 2025 at 7:10 PM
Like, I can't emphasize enough how much the simultaneous autocratization of power in the federal government with the enfeeblement of the individual vested with that power should freak you out
For sure. Kudos to the Hungarian electorate for delivering such overwhelming defeat. Also a sign that autocratization wasn’t so complete that denial or repression could have been a feasible strategy. Orban did not have a Lukashenka strategy at his disposal.
Orban is not conceding because he's honourable. He's conceding because his defeat is so comprehensive even he can't pretend he won.
April 12, 2026 at 11:53 PM
For sure. Kudos to the Hungarian electorate for delivering such overwhelming defeat. Also a sign that autocratization wasn’t so complete that denial or repression could have been a feasible strategy. Orban did not have a Lukashenka strategy at his disposal.
In my view, the window to *forestall* autocratization of the US political system is basically closed. We're now in the consolidation phase of a new authoritarian constitutional settlement. The question is how far it'll get (will it achieve its apparent goal of fascism?) & at what pace.
Here's why:
Here's why:
July 18, 2025 at 6:26 PM
In my view, the window to *forestall* autocratization of the US political system is basically closed. We're now in the consolidation phase of a new authoritarian constitutional settlement. The question is how far it'll get (will it achieve its apparent goal of fascism?) & at what pace.
Here's why:
Here's why:
The expansion of the opposition coalition is a natural result of asymmetric radicalization and autocratization within a two-party system
it's sort of funny that the ideology of the democratic party spans everywhere from "guy who would be at home in the 1920 austrian social democratic party" and "former republic lt gov of georgia"
September 17, 2025 at 5:33 PM
The expansion of the opposition coalition is a natural result of asymmetric radicalization and autocratization within a two-party system
📣 New Working Paper 'When Autocratization Is Reversed' 📣
We define 'democratic turnarounds', identify a total of 98 cases since 1900, and show that 40-48% (!) of all autocratization episodes are followed by democratization episodes!
Read at v-dem.net/media/public...
polisky dictatorsky
We define 'democratic turnarounds', identify a total of 98 cases since 1900, and show that 40-48% (!) of all autocratization episodes are followed by democratization episodes!
Read at v-dem.net/media/public...
polisky dictatorsky
v-dem.net
January 31, 2024 at 3:46 PM
📣 New Working Paper 'When Autocratization Is Reversed' 📣
We define 'democratic turnarounds', identify a total of 98 cases since 1900, and show that 40-48% (!) of all autocratization episodes are followed by democratization episodes!
Read at v-dem.net/media/public...
polisky dictatorsky
We define 'democratic turnarounds', identify a total of 98 cases since 1900, and show that 40-48% (!) of all autocratization episodes are followed by democratization episodes!
Read at v-dem.net/media/public...
polisky dictatorsky
To repeat: I have studied a lot of cases of autocratization over the past 15 years. Wrote about them, taught about them, consulting about them.
I do not recall an opposition so apathetic, ignorant, and inept as the @democrats.org. They cling to their power, rather than fight for democracy. Shame.
I do not recall an opposition so apathetic, ignorant, and inept as the @democrats.org. They cling to their power, rather than fight for democracy. Shame.
March 13, 2025 at 11:22 PM
To repeat: I have studied a lot of cases of autocratization over the past 15 years. Wrote about them, taught about them, consulting about them.
I do not recall an opposition so apathetic, ignorant, and inept as the @democrats.org. They cling to their power, rather than fight for democracy. Shame.
I do not recall an opposition so apathetic, ignorant, and inept as the @democrats.org. They cling to their power, rather than fight for democracy. Shame.
I don’t think this article is right & there is academic literature on the topic www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
v-dem.net/media/public...
v-dem.net/media/public...
When autocratization is reversed: episodes of U-Turns since 1900
The world is in a “wave of autocratization.” Yet, recent events in Brazil, the Maldives, and Zambia demonstrate that autocratization can be halted and reversed. This article introduces “U-Turn” as ...
www.tandfonline.com
August 25, 2025 at 11:38 PM
I don’t think this article is right & there is academic literature on the topic www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
v-dem.net/media/public...
v-dem.net/media/public...
Im seeing a lot of arguments like this from colleagues in PoliSci
My view from working on autocracy is that Dems were winning on the biggest fight- making autocratization unpopular and now they're giving that up.
Those are the costs
My view from working on autocracy is that Dems were winning on the biggest fight- making autocratization unpopular and now they're giving that up.
Those are the costs
I’m not sure the benefits outweigh the costs, but this is a reasonable case that there are benefits to ending the shutdown.
I will probably get excommunicated from Bsky for saying that, but I can see a case for ending the shutdown now.
- Millions of civil servants did not get a salary for over a month, and millions are losing SNAP going into the holiday season.
- But, just as important...
- Millions of civil servants did not get a salary for over a month, and millions are losing SNAP going into the holiday season.
- But, just as important...
November 10, 2025 at 1:07 AM
Im seeing a lot of arguments like this from colleagues in PoliSci
My view from working on autocracy is that Dems were winning on the biggest fight- making autocratization unpopular and now they're giving that up.
Those are the costs
My view from working on autocracy is that Dems were winning on the biggest fight- making autocratization unpopular and now they're giving that up.
Those are the costs
