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Financial traders and prediction markets are rapidly reassessing expectations for US monetary policy ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate

By Alden Bentley NEW YORK (Reuters) - Making sense of the forces driving global markets Jamie is enjoying some well-deserved time off, but the Reuters markets team will still keep you up to date on what moved markets today. Today’s Key Market Moves * The S&P 500 ends up 0.55% at 5,611.51 * The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield falls 3.3 basispoints to 4.222% * The euro falls 0.12% against the dollar to $1.0814 * The dollar rises 0.1% against the yen to 149.93 yen * Gold bullion rises 1.29% to $3,123.92 an ounce Wall Street shakes off tariff trepidation Investors’ aversion to uncertainty was the theme across global markets on Monday in the run-up to U.S. President Donald Trump’s promised April 2 "Liberation Day" tariff announcements. After sharp share falls in Asia and Europe, the risk-off contagion hit Wall Street in early trade, while safe-haven Treasuries were bought and gold topped $3,100 an ounce for the first time. However, the S&P 500 and the Dow clawed their way back into the green even as Treasury yields stayed slightly lower on the day amid worries about how Trump’s trade war will impact U.S. and overseas growth. Goldman Sachs increased the probability of a U.S. recession this year to 35%, also lowering its U.S. GDP growth forecast and year-end target for the S&P 500, establishing itself as the most bearish big firm so far. Month-end and quarter-end adjustments were also afoot, so the choppiness was not a surprise. What could move markets tomorrow? * Japan February unemployment * Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting * U.S. Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey for February * U.S. March ISM Manufacturing PMI 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. If you have more time to read today, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today. * As ‘Buy Canadian’ grows, more US companies say retailersshunning their products * Trump auto tariffs threaten new supply-price shock * Gold sails above $3,100 to uncharted territory as UStariffs approach * FX options volume surge as investors juggle tariff risks * Markets in Q1: Everything’s been Trumped! Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. Trading Day is also sent by email every weekday morning. Think your friend or colleague should know about us? Forward this newsletter to them. They can also sign up here. (Written by Alden Bentley; Editing by Nia Williams)

WARSAW, March 14 (Reuters) - Fitch Ratings has affirmedPoland's long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating (IDR)at 'A-' with a stable outlook, the agency said late on Friday. The agency forecasts average inflation of 4.5% in 2025, and3.7% in 2026, it said. Given the inflation outlook Fitch expects two 25 basispoints interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025 and four 25basis points cuts in 2026.(Reporting by Marek Strzelecki; editing by Diane Craft)