Magical thinking does not persuade bond markets
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tells CBS that the tax bill won't increase the deficit because:
- Tariffs will bring in $2 trillion
- Admin will find $1 trillion in "savings" (presumably DOGE-style)
- Trump has a "prescription drug plan with the pharmaceutical companies" that will save another $1t
- Tariffs will bring in $2 trillion
- Admin will find $1 trillion in "savings" (presumably DOGE-style)
- Trump has a "prescription drug plan with the pharmaceutical companies" that will save another $1t
June 1, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Magical thinking does not persuade bond markets
You think the bond markets didn’t like the tariffs, they really won’t like this …..
Also real authoritarian stuff
Also real authoritarian stuff
April 17, 2025 at 12:19 PM
You think the bond markets didn’t like the tariffs, they really won’t like this …..
Also real authoritarian stuff
Also real authoritarian stuff
My “bond markets functioning” t-shirt, etc.
October 2, 2026 at 11:33 AM
My “bond markets functioning” t-shirt, etc.
HAPPENING NOW
📈 EURO AND YEN SURGING
⚠️ US DOLLAR FALLING
⚠️ STOCK FUTURES CRASHING
⚠️ BOND MARKETS IMPLODING
⚠️ 10YR TREASURY YIELD SOARING
📈 EURO AND YEN SURGING
⚠️ US DOLLAR FALLING
⚠️ STOCK FUTURES CRASHING
⚠️ BOND MARKETS IMPLODING
⚠️ 10YR TREASURY YIELD SOARING
April 11, 2025 at 1:07 AM
HAPPENING NOW
📈 EURO AND YEN SURGING
⚠️ US DOLLAR FALLING
⚠️ STOCK FUTURES CRASHING
⚠️ BOND MARKETS IMPLODING
⚠️ 10YR TREASURY YIELD SOARING
📈 EURO AND YEN SURGING
⚠️ US DOLLAR FALLING
⚠️ STOCK FUTURES CRASHING
⚠️ BOND MARKETS IMPLODING
⚠️ 10YR TREASURY YIELD SOARING
Watch the bond markets, baby!
November 14, 2025 at 8:35 AM
Watch the bond markets, baby!
buffering - check back after bond markets stabilize
August 31, 2026 at 3:06 PM
buffering - check back after bond markets stabilize
Watch the bond markets, he said…
May 22, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Watch the bond markets, he said…
If you can’t change Prime Minister because of the bond markets, then the bond markets *are* the Prime Minister.
May 12, 2026 at 6:40 AM
If you can’t change Prime Minister because of the bond markets, then the bond markets *are* the Prime Minister.
“.. Low-information voters may be fooled for a little while, but bond markets won’t.”
I wrote about the risks of a "sudden stop" if investors lose faith in America. The bond market is amplifying those risks minute by minute as yields shoot higher after the budget monstrosity paulkrugman.substack.com/p/gaming-out...
Gaming Out a Sudden Stop
What happens if investors lose faith in America?
paulkrugman.substack.com
May 22, 2025 at 1:27 PM
“.. Low-information voters may be fooled for a little while, but bond markets won’t.”
I hope the next bond markets are women
June 29, 2026 at 10:33 AM
I hope the next bond markets are women
How much will the bond markets constrain Trump's tariff mania?
April 12, 2025 at 1:21 AM
How much will the bond markets constrain Trump's tariff mania?
Farage wants to bring cryptocurrency in from the cold. Tell that to the bond markets.
February 8, 2026 at 12:54 PM
Farage wants to bring cryptocurrency in from the cold. Tell that to the bond markets.
do this and the bond markets freak out worse than liberation day
Top White House advisers signals that firing Powell maybe is not out of the question as the admin begins to probe these accusations around Fed renovations. Hassett said it would depend potentially on what Powell's answers turn up www.nytimes.com/live/2025/07...
Update from Tony Romm
www.nytimes.com
July 13, 2025 at 2:22 PM
do this and the bond markets freak out worse than liberation day
Trevor Phillips this morning: "The bond markets are not a lie, the Bond markets are real"
Eddie Dempsey: "What about the bond markets they say. Well who elected the bond market? No me. Who runs this country, either us or the markets"
Eddie Dempsey: "What about the bond markets they say. Well who elected the bond market? No me. Who runs this country, either us or the markets"
September 7, 2025 at 8:59 AM
Trevor Phillips this morning: "The bond markets are not a lie, the Bond markets are real"
Eddie Dempsey: "What about the bond markets they say. Well who elected the bond market? No me. Who runs this country, either us or the markets"
Eddie Dempsey: "What about the bond markets they say. Well who elected the bond market? No me. Who runs this country, either us or the markets"
$SPCX - SPACEX BOND SALE SIGNALS MARKETS ARE IN ‘BUBBLE TERRITORY’, WARNS ALLIANZ CIO
June 25, 2026 at 11:30 AM
$SPCX - SPACEX BOND SALE SIGNALS MARKETS ARE IN ‘BUBBLE TERRITORY’, WARNS ALLIANZ CIO
How do you try to piece together the mis-shapen, independent jigsaw pieces of consumer issues, business, the economy, bond markets, stock markets, job markets, world economies, tariffs, and more.
Contd
Contd
July 2, 2025 at 6:48 PM
How do you try to piece together the mis-shapen, independent jigsaw pieces of consumer issues, business, the economy, bond markets, stock markets, job markets, world economies, tariffs, and more.
Contd
Contd
If you don’t look at bond markets they can’t hurt you. They’re just numbers on a screen.
April 9, 2025 at 4:37 AM
If you don’t look at bond markets they can’t hurt you. They’re just numbers on a screen.
Murphy: When you see the 10-year bond exploding… when you see markets moving like a sine curve—that’s the opposite of stability. A strong dollar is in our national interest. What we’re seeing now is the opposite of that.
April 12, 2025 at 3:06 AM
Murphy: When you see the 10-year bond exploding… when you see markets moving like a sine curve—that’s the opposite of stability. A strong dollar is in our national interest. What we’re seeing now is the opposite of that.
How bond markets and Trump interact
April 26, 2025 at 3:07 PM
How bond markets and Trump interact
If you need proof that Russia is close to economic collapse then look no further than the Russian bond markets.
August 17, 2026 at 1:29 AM
If you need proof that Russia is close to economic collapse then look no further than the Russian bond markets.
If you find talk of bond and forex markets hard to track, this graph does an amazing job illustrating what's going on.
April 11, 2025 at 3:36 PM
If you find talk of bond and forex markets hard to track, this graph does an amazing job illustrating what's going on.
Bond markets have an i* problem and a oui problem
October 6, 2026 at 12:31 PM
Bond markets have an i* problem and a oui problem
The US dollar is crashing, stock futures are crashing, and bond markets are imploding.
What is the plan here, exactly?
What is the plan here, exactly?
April 11, 2025 at 2:22 AM
The US dollar is crashing, stock futures are crashing, and bond markets are imploding.
What is the plan here, exactly?
What is the plan here, exactly?
I’ve worked with several treasury secretaries, and I can honestly say that Scott Bessent is the worst I’ve ever witnessed.
He seems to be doing everything possible to lose credibility, which is critical to soothing markets and maintaining faith in the dollar.
He seems to be doing everything possible to lose credibility, which is critical to soothing markets and maintaining faith in the dollar.
Bessent dared the markets to ‘bet against’ him. Bond traders did — and appear to be winning.
As the Trump administration digs deeper into its toolbox to lower longer-term bond yields, they’re only surging higher.
www.nbcnews.com
September 14, 2026 at 8:00 PM
I’ve worked with several treasury secretaries, and I can honestly say that Scott Bessent is the worst I’ve ever witnessed.
He seems to be doing everything possible to lose credibility, which is critical to soothing markets and maintaining faith in the dollar.
He seems to be doing everything possible to lose credibility, which is critical to soothing markets and maintaining faith in the dollar.