The stock markets and bond markets are no supporters of democracy, and we should never allow them to dictate the limits of politics.
Yeah, but what about the markets?
“Stocks closed on Friday almost 7% above their level going into the first round, while the real currency was nearly 5% stronger against the US dollar. Interest-rate futures had …” Blah di blah.
www.reuters.com/business/fin...
“Stocks closed on Friday almost 7% above their level going into the first round, while the real currency was nearly 5% stronger against the US dollar. Interest-rate futures had …” Blah di blah.
www.reuters.com/business/fin...
Investors expect Brazilian stocks, currency to fall after Lula reelected
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won reelection on Sunday, defeating right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and setting up a test for financial markets, with investors expecting recent bet...
www.reuters.com
October 26, 2026 at 8:18 AM
The stock markets and bond markets are no supporters of democracy, and we should never allow them to dictate the limits of politics.
lol reminder that betting markets are extremely accurate measures of conventional wisdom
October 26, 2026 at 12:47 AM
lol reminder that betting markets are extremely accurate measures of conventional wisdom
They’re predation markets, not prediction markets.
Rubes only need apply.
Rubes only need apply.
October 26, 2026 at 1:02 AM
They’re predation markets, not prediction markets.
Rubes only need apply.
Rubes only need apply.
They aren’t prediction markets; they reaction markets.
October 26, 2026 at 12:29 AM
They aren’t prediction markets; they reaction markets.
the markets have essentially become a gauge for how much corruption the government in power is going to let the business class get away with
![[The Economist headline/dek with pic of Lula]
Leaders | Brazil’s comeback king
Markets are dismayed by Lula’s surprise win—and for good reason
The pressure is on Brazil’s re-elected president to avoid an economic slump
Share](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:aq6ucuguuc67yqwu4x4eipro/bafkreicopewdqd7yhuxu2pqfl4phvei6mhv3wv7iyr6tunbga2vlo6amv4)
October 27, 2026 at 12:05 PM
the markets have essentially become a gauge for how much corruption the government in power is going to let the business class get away with
"Markets" just means rich people.
October 26, 2026 at 11:13 PM
"Markets" just means rich people.
Definitely ban prediction markets and most crypto.
October 26, 2026 at 11:50 PM
Definitely ban prediction markets and most crypto.
for once in my fucking life I’d like to be able to trust the degenerate political gamblers on the prediction markets
This might be one of the great greatest political comebacks we’ve ever seen
Huge Lula side buying going thru
Huge Lula side buying going thru
October 25, 2026 at 10:31 PM
for once in my fucking life I’d like to be able to trust the degenerate political gamblers on the prediction markets
"Why do you believe capitalism is inherently evil?"
Markets go down when good things happen.
Markets go down when good things happen.
October 26, 2026 at 2:52 PM
"Why do you believe capitalism is inherently evil?"
Markets go down when good things happen.
Markets go down when good things happen.
One of my crank theories is that the insanely deep liquidity in the private markets is one of the reasons that governance standards has slipped so much in public markets.
October 26, 2026 at 2:03 PM
One of my crank theories is that the insanely deep liquidity in the private markets is one of the reasons that governance standards has slipped so much in public markets.
Betting markets are a random sample of dudes who lost money on NFTs and you need to stop taking them seriously.
The people most heavily into these things are all crypto-bro Twitter addicts. I know actual, smart people who insist these things are more accurate than polling and I don't know what to say anymore. It's a sample of dudes with advanced brain rot.
October 26, 2026 at 2:06 PM
Betting markets are a random sample of dudes who lost money on NFTs and you need to stop taking them seriously.
Prediction markets:
October 26, 2026 at 1:34 PM
Prediction markets:
Amazing how correct prediction markets are after the event happened.
someone at Polymarket is drafting a tweet about how their users accurately predicted the Brazilian election result within one point
October 26, 2026 at 2:16 AM
Amazing how correct prediction markets are after the event happened.
prediction markets just flipped to Lula??
October 25, 2026 at 10:11 PM
prediction markets just flipped to Lula??
Brazil elected Lula again tonight.
Poll averages appear to have had Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro effectively tied, maybe Bolsonaro up 1 on Lula — so not sure why the markets had this race at 80-20 Bolsonaro.
Markets might miss big in the U.S. midterms in 9 days too.
Poll averages appear to have had Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro effectively tied, maybe Bolsonaro up 1 on Lula — so not sure why the markets had this race at 80-20 Bolsonaro.
Markets might miss big in the U.S. midterms in 9 days too.
October 26, 2026 at 12:27 AM
Brazil elected Lula again tonight.
Poll averages appear to have had Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro effectively tied, maybe Bolsonaro up 1 on Lula — so not sure why the markets had this race at 80-20 Bolsonaro.
Markets might miss big in the U.S. midterms in 9 days too.
Poll averages appear to have had Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro effectively tied, maybe Bolsonaro up 1 on Lula — so not sure why the markets had this race at 80-20 Bolsonaro.
Markets might miss big in the U.S. midterms in 9 days too.
On Prediction Markets
On Prediction Markets
There are lots of arguments about “prediction markets”. Some of the most...
talkingpointsmemo.com
October 26, 2026 at 3:05 PM
On Prediction Markets
election betting markets once again fail to predict jack shit
Massive swing in the prediction markets, who see the underlying data favouring Lula > Bolsanaro
October 25, 2026 at 11:36 PM
election betting markets once again fail to predict jack shit
IGNORE THE POLLS.
IGNORE THE PREDICTION MARKETS.
PROTEST VOTES DON’T COUNT.
MAKE YOUR VOTE COUNT.
VOTE, FFS.
IGNORE THE PREDICTION MARKETS.
PROTEST VOTES DON’T COUNT.
MAKE YOUR VOTE COUNT.
VOTE, FFS.
October 26, 2026 at 11:28 PM
IGNORE THE POLLS.
IGNORE THE PREDICTION MARKETS.
PROTEST VOTES DON’T COUNT.
MAKE YOUR VOTE COUNT.
VOTE, FFS.
IGNORE THE PREDICTION MARKETS.
PROTEST VOTES DON’T COUNT.
MAKE YOUR VOTE COUNT.
VOTE, FFS.
This is why "prediction markets" caught on so ferociously. While prediction markets are sold as a way to "inject information" into markets, they are *actually* a rigged system, transferring money from "investors" to insiders:
pluralistic.net/2026/03/24/d...
pluralistic.net/2026/03/24/d...
Pluralistic: Goodhart’s Law vs “prediction markets” (24 Mar 2026) – Pluralistic: Daily links from Cory Doctorow
pluralistic.net
October 27, 2026 at 9:24 AM
This is why "prediction markets" caught on so ferociously. While prediction markets are sold as a way to "inject information" into markets, they are *actually* a rigged system, transferring money from "investors" to insiders:
pluralistic.net/2026/03/24/d...
pluralistic.net/2026/03/24/d...
These GOP Candidates Let Wall Street Hijack Gas Prices
Some senators even knew the markets were being manipulated but still did nothing about it.
Some senators even knew the markets were being manipulated but still did nothing about it.
These GOP Candidates Let Wall Street Hijack Gas Prices
Some senators even knew the markets were being manipulated but still did nothing about it
jonathanlarsen.substack.com
October 26, 2026 at 12:41 AM
These GOP Candidates Let Wall Street Hijack Gas Prices
Some senators even knew the markets were being manipulated but still did nothing about it.
Some senators even knew the markets were being manipulated but still did nothing about it.
Maybe prediction markets are bullshit?
Lula wins Brazil runoff after prediction markets favored Bolsonaro
While prediction market odds pointed to a clear Bolsonaro victory, Lula emerged the winner in a tight race.
www.cnbc.com
October 26, 2026 at 6:58 PM
Maybe prediction markets are bullshit?
Prediction markets have broken hard for Lula since results started coming out.
October 25, 2026 at 11:32 PM
Prediction markets have broken hard for Lula since results started coming out.
Our election research team put out an article today explaining how the prediction markets (e.g. Kalshi, Polymarket) — and social media posts featuring visualizations from those platforms — may feed election rumors & conspiracy theories around the U.S. midterms: uwcip.substack.com/p/what-to-kn...
What to Know About Election Forecasting and Prediction Markets This November
What to Expect When We’re Electing
uwcip.substack.com
October 27, 2026 at 4:10 AM
Our election research team put out an article today explaining how the prediction markets (e.g. Kalshi, Polymarket) — and social media posts featuring visualizations from those platforms — may feed election rumors & conspiracy theories around the U.S. midterms: uwcip.substack.com/p/what-to-kn...
Prediction markets really not beating the "we just reflect information you could easily gather yourself" allegations there
Massive swing in the prediction markets, who see the underlying data favouring Lula > Bolsanaro
October 25, 2026 at 11:39 PM
Prediction markets really not beating the "we just reflect information you could easily gather yourself" allegations there