Das Szenario war ein reines Emissionsszenario mit Annahme Vervierfachung Kohlenutzung 2100 ggü 2000. Das kann nicht mehr eintreten.
Das heißt nicht, dass d im RCP8 beschriebenen Entwicklg aufgrund zb höherer Klimasensitivität unplausibel sind. Siehe CMIP7 High Szenario (das "neue" RCP8).
Das heißt nicht, dass d im RCP8 beschriebenen Entwicklg aufgrund zb höherer Klimasensitivität unplausibel sind. Siehe CMIP7 High Szenario (das "neue" RCP8).
October 1, 2026 at 4:53 PM
Das Szenario war ein reines Emissionsszenario mit Annahme Vervierfachung Kohlenutzung 2100 ggü 2000. Das kann nicht mehr eintreten.
Das heißt nicht, dass d im RCP8 beschriebenen Entwicklg aufgrund zb höherer Klimasensitivität unplausibel sind. Siehe CMIP7 High Szenario (das "neue" RCP8).
Das heißt nicht, dass d im RCP8 beschriebenen Entwicklg aufgrund zb höherer Klimasensitivität unplausibel sind. Siehe CMIP7 High Szenario (das "neue" RCP8).
🌍 The CLIVAR Confronting Earth System Model Trends and Multidecadal Variability with Observations Research Focus (CEMT-MV) is pleased to announce the CMIP7 Hackathon 2027!
📅 6–8 January 2027
📍 Boulder, Taipei and Tokyo
📝 Application deadline: 24 October 2026
🔗 ncar.github.io/CMIP7_hackat...
📅 6–8 January 2027
📍 Boulder, Taipei and Tokyo
📝 Application deadline: 24 October 2026
🔗 ncar.github.io/CMIP7_hackat...
October 1, 2026 at 11:28 AM
🌍 The CLIVAR Confronting Earth System Model Trends and Multidecadal Variability with Observations Research Focus (CEMT-MV) is pleased to announce the CMIP7 Hackathon 2027!
📅 6–8 January 2027
📍 Boulder, Taipei and Tokyo
📝 Application deadline: 24 October 2026
🔗 ncar.github.io/CMIP7_hackat...
📅 6–8 January 2027
📍 Boulder, Taipei and Tokyo
📝 Application deadline: 24 October 2026
🔗 ncar.github.io/CMIP7_hackat...
Interested in getting involved in the CMIP7 Analysis Workshops as a facilitator? Join @wcrp-cmip.org for facilitator training, taking place on October 5.
Sign up before Wednesday to become a facilitator! airtable.com/appGEHtbRi0w...
Sign up before Wednesday to become a facilitator! airtable.com/appGEHtbRi0w...
September 28, 2026 at 9:37 PM
Interested in getting involved in the CMIP7 Analysis Workshops as a facilitator? Join @wcrp-cmip.org for facilitator training, taking place on October 5.
Sign up before Wednesday to become a facilitator! airtable.com/appGEHtbRi0w...
Sign up before Wednesday to become a facilitator! airtable.com/appGEHtbRi0w...
.. and you can explore results across regions and approaches for yourself. Check out all scenarios, more indicators and the CMIP7 comparison here: setupelz.com/faircoop
Equitable cooperation deepens the solution space for high ambition pathways: explorer
setupelz.com
September 28, 2026 at 8:44 AM
.. and you can explore results across regions and approaches for yourself. Check out all scenarios, more indicators and the CMIP7 comparison here: setupelz.com/faircoop
Our main cost-effective source scenario is close to, though not the same as, the ScenarioMIP-CMIP7 Low marker from the same model family. The interactive scenario explorer places them side by side. In Western Europe, e.g. every lowest-feasible variant phases out gas and oil faster..
September 28, 2026 at 8:44 AM
Our main cost-effective source scenario is close to, though not the same as, the ScenarioMIP-CMIP7 Low marker from the same model family. The interactive scenario explorer places them side by side. In Western Europe, e.g. every lowest-feasible variant phases out gas and oil faster..
Uudet IPCC:n käyttöön tarkoitetut miten-kriisi-etenee-skenaariot saavat vihaiseksi. Parhaimmassakin tilanteessa jätettiin ihan hillitön sotku jälkeemme. Aikuiset juhli "villillä 20-luvulla" - lapset siivoavat jälkiä ainakin seuraavat sata vuotta.
www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-th...
www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-th...
Explainer: The CMIP7 emissions scenarios – and how they explore future climate change - Carbon Brief
Every few years, climate modelling groups run a coordinated set of simulations that explore climate change in the future. Carbon Brief unpacks how the new scenarios were designed and how they differ.
www.carbonbrief.org
September 27, 2026 at 4:53 PM
Uudet IPCC:n käyttöön tarkoitetut miten-kriisi-etenee-skenaariot saavat vihaiseksi. Parhaimmassakin tilanteessa jätettiin ihan hillitön sotku jälkeemme. Aikuiset juhli "villillä 20-luvulla" - lapset siivoavat jälkiä ainakin seuraavat sata vuotta.
www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-th...
www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-th...
+ alt text and this and people acting like we’re good scares the shit out of me because these are by 2100 and 40+% chance of ≥ +3°C which puts us at a place where the mostly dead/acidic oceans slowly warm and deep clathrates gradually release greenhouse super gas methane driving us to a hothouse
September 22, 2026 at 7:21 PM
+ alt text and this and people acting like we’re good scares the shit out of me because these are by 2100 and 40+% chance of ≥ +3°C which puts us at a place where the mostly dead/acidic oceans slowly warm and deep clathrates gradually release greenhouse super gas methane driving us to a hothouse
"The world’s leading climate modelers have also just released a new set of scenarios that will be used to inform the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s next assessment report, AR7. These new #scenarios —the seventh Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, or CMIP7—...
September 22, 2026 at 4:34 PM
"The world’s leading climate modelers have also just released a new set of scenarios that will be used to inform the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s next assessment report, AR7. These new #scenarios —the seventh Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, or CMIP7—...
In a world of policy reversal and active support for fossil fuel burning (the CMIP7 "High" scenario), we could end up well above 3C by 2100, have a ~70% chance of >4C by 2150, and a 30% chance of over 5C.
September 22, 2026 at 3:27 PM
In a world of policy reversal and active support for fossil fuel burning (the CMIP7 "High" scenario), we could end up well above 3C by 2100, have a ~70% chance of >4C by 2150, and a 30% chance of over 5C.
And on the path we are on today those odds are deeply worrying. Its virtually certain we reach 2C by 2100. By 2150 we have a 77% chance of being above 3C, a ~30% chance of being above 4C, and a 6% of >5C warming:
Explainer: The CMIP7 emissions scenarios – and how they explore future climate change - Carbon Brief
Every few years, climate modelling groups run a coordinated set of simulations that explore climate change in the future. Carbon Brief unpacks how the new scenarios were designed and how they differ.
www.carbonbrief.org
September 22, 2026 at 3:26 PM
And on the path we are on today those odds are deeply worrying. Its virtually certain we reach 2C by 2100. By 2150 we have a 77% chance of being above 3C, a ~30% chance of being above 4C, and a 6% of >5C warming:
If you are planning to analyze CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track simulations, register to attend a CMIP7 Analysis Workshop! Each virtual workshop will focus on a fundamental CMIP7 science question. Learn more and register. wcrp-cmip.org/registration...
Registration Open for CMIP7 Analysis Workshops - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
We are pleased to invite the climate modelling community to participate in the CMIP7 Analysis Workshops, a new series of community-led virtual workshops
wcrp-cmip.org
September 21, 2026 at 6:01 PM
If you are planning to analyze CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track simulations, register to attend a CMIP7 Analysis Workshop! Each virtual workshop will focus on a fundamental CMIP7 science question. Learn more and register. wcrp-cmip.org/registration...
CMIP7's medium path at 2.9°C implies gigatonne-scale CDR by mid-century, but current durable removals are around 0.5 Mt/yr delivered. That's a 1000x gap in 25 years. CDR only works as a supplement to fossil phase-out, never a substitute.
September 20, 2026 at 3:27 AM
CMIP7's medium path at 2.9°C implies gigatonne-scale CDR by mid-century, but current durable removals are around 0.5 Mt/yr delivered. That's a 1000x gap in 25 years. CDR only works as a supplement to fossil phase-out, never a substitute.
The latest climate modelling is narrowing the range of possible futures. New CMIP7 scenarios project 1.6–3.3°C of warming by 2100, down from the previous 1.5–4.7°C range. For the first time, the highest scenario has fallen below 4°C—reflecting lower projected emissions. But the outlook (1/3)
September 20, 2026 at 2:59 AM
The latest climate modelling is narrowing the range of possible futures. New CMIP7 scenarios project 1.6–3.3°C of warming by 2100, down from the previous 1.5–4.7°C range. For the first time, the highest scenario has fallen below 4°C—reflecting lower projected emissions. But the outlook (1/3)
My read is that Joshi said that those levels of emissions would be consistent with 2.5C to 3C warming by 2100, not 2050. Thats a tad below the new CMIP7 medium scenario.
September 18, 2026 at 6:22 PM
My read is that Joshi said that those levels of emissions would be consistent with 2.5C to 3C warming by 2100, not 2050. Thats a tad below the new CMIP7 medium scenario.
Les centres de modélisation du climat du monde entier vont maintenant se coordonner pour faire tourner leurs modèles avec ces scénarios d'émissions.
Les résultats de leurs simulations (CMIP7) seront ensuite analysés par de multiples études caractérisant les changements climatiques ainsi projetés.
Les résultats de leurs simulations (CMIP7) seront ensuite analysés par de multiples études caractérisant les changements climatiques ainsi projetés.
September 18, 2026 at 12:02 PM
Les centres de modélisation du climat du monde entier vont maintenant se coordonner pour faire tourner leurs modèles avec ces scénarios d'émissions.
Les résultats de leurs simulations (CMIP7) seront ensuite analysés par de multiples études caractérisant les changements climatiques ainsi projetés.
Les résultats de leurs simulations (CMIP7) seront ensuite analysés par de multiples études caractérisant les changements climatiques ainsi projetés.
Qui décide de ces choix?
Bah des chercheur/ses.
Plus spécifiquement, un groupe de chercheu/ses sélectionné/es par le programme mondial de recherche sur le climat (WCRP), après un large appel à candidatures.
wcrp-cmip.org/explainer-sc...
Bah des chercheur/ses.
Plus spécifiquement, un groupe de chercheu/ses sélectionné/es par le programme mondial de recherche sur le climat (WCRP), après un large appel à candidatures.
wcrp-cmip.org/explainer-sc...
Explainer: Scenarios for CMIP7 - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
Figure adapted from van Vuuren et al., 2026
wcrp-cmip.org
September 18, 2026 at 12:02 PM
Qui décide de ces choix?
Bah des chercheur/ses.
Plus spécifiquement, un groupe de chercheu/ses sélectionné/es par le programme mondial de recherche sur le climat (WCRP), après un large appel à candidatures.
wcrp-cmip.org/explainer-sc...
Bah des chercheur/ses.
Plus spécifiquement, un groupe de chercheu/ses sélectionné/es par le programme mondial de recherche sur le climat (WCRP), après un large appel à candidatures.
wcrp-cmip.org/explainer-sc...
Voici un article très complet sur ces scénarios, mais en anglais et plutôt destiné à un public déjà bien familiarisé avec le sujet, voire expert.
Explainer: The CMIP7 emissions scenarios – and how they explore future climate change - Carbon Brief
Every few years, climate modelling groups run a coordinated set of simulations that explore climate change in the future. Carbon Brief unpacks how the new scenarios were designed and how they differ.
www.carbonbrief.org
September 18, 2026 at 12:02 PM
Voici un article très complet sur ces scénarios, mais en anglais et plutôt destiné à un public déjà bien familiarisé avec le sujet, voire expert.
This link is to the cmip7 page
September 17, 2026 at 7:09 AM
This link is to the cmip7 page
🌍 New #FuturePop preprint!
WorldPop researchers and partners have developed a global dataset mapping population, GDP and assets from 1850-2100, helping power climate and impact modelling for #CMIP7 and beyond.
egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
#ClimateScience #PopulationData #OpenScience
WorldPop researchers and partners have developed a global dataset mapping population, GDP and assets from 1850-2100, helping power climate and impact modelling for #CMIP7 and beyond.
egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
#ClimateScience #PopulationData #OpenScience
September 16, 2026 at 1:03 PM
🌍 New #FuturePop preprint!
WorldPop researchers and partners have developed a global dataset mapping population, GDP and assets from 1850-2100, helping power climate and impact modelling for #CMIP7 and beyond.
egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
#ClimateScience #PopulationData #OpenScience
WorldPop researchers and partners have developed a global dataset mapping population, GDP and assets from 1850-2100, helping power climate and impact modelling for #CMIP7 and beyond.
egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
#ClimateScience #PopulationData #OpenScience
I just updated our analysis of plausible scenarios - Pielke et al. 2022 - with updated emissions data, IPCC AR6 scenarios, IEA WEO 2025, and CMIP7 scenarios
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/plausible-...
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/plausible-...
Plausible Scenarios Still Indicate 2°C to 3°C
An update of Pielke et al. 2022 with four more years of emissions data, 2025 IEA outlook, IPCC AR6 database, and the new CMIP7 scenarios
rogerpielkejr.substack.com
September 15, 2026 at 4:18 PM
I just updated our analysis of plausible scenarios - Pielke et al. 2022 - with updated emissions data, IPCC AR6 scenarios, IEA WEO 2025, and CMIP7 scenarios
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/plausible-...
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/plausible-...
Plausible Scenarios Still Indicate 2°C to 3°C
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/plausible-...
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/plausible-...
Plausible Scenarios Still Indicate 2°C to 3°C
An update of Pielke et al. 2022 with four more years of emissions data, 2025 IEA outlook, IPCC AR6 database, and the new CMIP7 scenarios
rogerpielkejr.substack.com
September 14, 2026 at 8:04 PM
Plausible Scenarios Still Indicate 2°C to 3°C
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/plausible-...
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/plausible-...