4/ The new CMIP7 paper makes a claim about the start of that chain:
→ SSP5-8.5, the very-high-emissions scenario, has become implausible.
That's a reasonable update. But it's being read as: high-end warming risk is off the table.
That doesn't follow, because it's a claim about just one link.
→ SSP5-8.5, the very-high-emissions scenario, has become implausible.
That's a reasonable update. But it's being read as: high-end warming risk is off the table.
That doesn't follow, because it's a claim about just one link.
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7)
Abstract. Scenarios serve as a critical tool in climate change analysis, enabling the exploration of future evolution of the climate system, climate impacts, and the human system (including mitigation...
gmd.copernicus.org
May 4, 2026 at 8:37 AM
4/ The new CMIP7 paper makes a claim about the start of that chain:
→ SSP5-8.5, the very-high-emissions scenario, has become implausible.
That's a reasonable update. But it's being read as: high-end warming risk is off the table.
That doesn't follow, because it's a claim about just one link.
→ SSP5-8.5, the very-high-emissions scenario, has become implausible.
That's a reasonable update. But it's being read as: high-end warming risk is off the table.
That doesn't follow, because it's a claim about just one link.
NEW – Explainer: The CMIP7 emissions scenarios – and how they explore future climate change
✍️ Written by @zekehausfather.com
Read here: buff.ly/t2daZcD
✍️ Written by @zekehausfather.com
Read here: buff.ly/t2daZcD
August 31, 2026 at 11:01 PM
NEW – Explainer: The CMIP7 emissions scenarios – and how they explore future climate change
✍️ Written by @zekehausfather.com
Read here: buff.ly/t2daZcD
✍️ Written by @zekehausfather.com
Read here: buff.ly/t2daZcD
So... now we can breathe again. Let's talk about ScenarioMIP.
The final version is now up on GMD - and there's some changes since the first draft. /THREAD/
gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...
The final version is now up on GMD - and there's some changes since the first draft. /THREAD/
gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7)
Abstract. Scenarios serve as a critical tool in climate change analysis, enabling the exploration of future evolution of the climate system, climate impacts, and the human system (including mitigation...
gmd.copernicus.org
April 8, 2026 at 9:50 AM
So... now we can breathe again. Let's talk about ScenarioMIP.
The final version is now up on GMD - and there's some changes since the first draft. /THREAD/
gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...
The final version is now up on GMD - and there's some changes since the first draft. /THREAD/
gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...
New paper on #CMIP7 emissions-driven design out today in GMD.
Earth System Modeling has long relied on simulations driven by GHG concentrations. But this approach is outdated.
ESMs need to resolve human activity and its consquences.
gmd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
Earth System Modeling has long relied on simulations driven by GHG concentrations. But this approach is outdated.
ESMs need to resolve human activity and its consquences.
gmd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7
Abstract. Previous phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) have primarily focused on simulations driven by atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), for both idealized ...
gmd.copernicus.org
November 19, 2024 at 2:00 PM
New paper on #CMIP7 emissions-driven design out today in GMD.
Earth System Modeling has long relied on simulations driven by GHG concentrations. But this approach is outdated.
ESMs need to resolve human activity and its consquences.
gmd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
Earth System Modeling has long relied on simulations driven by GHG concentrations. But this approach is outdated.
ESMs need to resolve human activity and its consquences.
gmd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
🌟 Silent star of the day
CDDS-CMIP7-mappings — Definition and review of CDDS mappings for CMIP7
#indiedev #opensource
CDDS-CMIP7-mappings — Definition and review of CDDS mappings for CMIP7
#indiedev #opensource
CDDS-CMIP7-mappings · SilentStars
Definition and review of CDDS mappings for CMIP7
capuz.github.io
June 28, 2026 at 7:04 AM
🌟 Silent star of the day
CDDS-CMIP7-mappings — Definition and review of CDDS mappings for CMIP7
#indiedev #opensource
CDDS-CMIP7-mappings — Definition and review of CDDS mappings for CMIP7
#indiedev #opensource
Was bedeutet CMIP7?
CMIP7 ist das Projekt, SSP5-8.5 war ein einzelnes Szenario der Vorgängergeneration CMIP6. CMIP7 hat SSP5-8.5 nicht übernommen, weil es als nicht mehr plausibel gilt. Das neue oberste Szenario heißt High und liegt deutlich darunter.
CMIP7 ist das Projekt, SSP5-8.5 war ein einzelnes Szenario der Vorgängergeneration CMIP6. CMIP7 hat SSP5-8.5 nicht übernommen, weil es als nicht mehr plausibel gilt. Das neue oberste Szenario heißt High und liegt deutlich darunter.
May 23, 2026 at 6:50 AM
Was bedeutet CMIP7?
CMIP7 ist das Projekt, SSP5-8.5 war ein einzelnes Szenario der Vorgängergeneration CMIP6. CMIP7 hat SSP5-8.5 nicht übernommen, weil es als nicht mehr plausibel gilt. Das neue oberste Szenario heißt High und liegt deutlich darunter.
CMIP7 ist das Projekt, SSP5-8.5 war ein einzelnes Szenario der Vorgängergeneration CMIP6. CMIP7 hat SSP5-8.5 nicht übernommen, weil es als nicht mehr plausibel gilt. Das neue oberste Szenario heißt High und liegt deutlich darunter.
13/ Worth turning the word "implausible" around.
The CMIP7 paper says SSP5-8.5 is implausible. Good.
But, alas, a 2°C world being a safe one is also looking implausible.
The CMIP7 paper says SSP5-8.5 is implausible. Good.
But, alas, a 2°C world being a safe one is also looking implausible.
May 4, 2026 at 8:37 AM
13/ Worth turning the word "implausible" around.
The CMIP7 paper says SSP5-8.5 is implausible. Good.
But, alas, a 2°C world being a safe one is also looking implausible.
The CMIP7 paper says SSP5-8.5 is implausible. Good.
But, alas, a 2°C world being a safe one is also looking implausible.
This is going to be useful: The CMIP Rapid Evaluation Framework (REF) for derived data from the CMIP archives:
dashboard.climate-ref.org
Still working out the kinks and focused on CMIP6, but will expand for CMIP7.
#CMIP2026
dashboard.climate-ref.org
Still working out the kinks and focused on CMIP6, but will expand for CMIP7.
#CMIP2026
Rapid Evaluation Framework
dashboard.climate-ref.org
March 9, 2026 at 5:35 AM
This is going to be useful: The CMIP Rapid Evaluation Framework (REF) for derived data from the CMIP archives:
dashboard.climate-ref.org
Still working out the kinks and focused on CMIP6, but will expand for CMIP7.
#CMIP2026
dashboard.climate-ref.org
Still working out the kinks and focused on CMIP6, but will expand for CMIP7.
#CMIP2026
Here is how the 2100 warming outcomes in the new CMIP7 emissions scenarios compare to their CMIP6-era SSP counterparts:
September 1, 2026 at 3:23 PM
Here is how the 2100 warming outcomes in the new CMIP7 emissions scenarios compare to their CMIP6-era SSP counterparts:
Final version now online: gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...
April 7, 2026 at 3:27 PM
Final version now online: gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...
Let me also (a) quote @hausfath.bsky.social, @glenpeters.bsky.social & Piers Forster on the new CMIP7 scenarios (www.theclimatebrink.com/p/on-the-dea...) and (b) remind folks what 3C (5.4F) of warming looks like (unclimatesummit.org/comparing-cl...):
May 18, 2026 at 10:12 PM
Let me also (a) quote @hausfath.bsky.social, @glenpeters.bsky.social & Piers Forster on the new CMIP7 scenarios (www.theclimatebrink.com/p/on-the-dea...) and (b) remind folks what 3C (5.4F) of warming looks like (unclimatesummit.org/comparing-cl...):
'The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7)'
@detlefvanvuuren.bsky.social et al. (2026)
No mention of CERESMIP, while it's crucial to compare models with the radiative flux changes in the real world.
@climateofgavin.bsky.social
gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...
@detlefvanvuuren.bsky.social et al. (2026)
No mention of CERESMIP, while it's crucial to compare models with the radiative flux changes in the real world.
@climateofgavin.bsky.social
gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7)
Abstract. Scenarios serve as a critical tool in climate change analysis, enabling the exploration of future evolution of the climate system, climate impacts, and the human system (including mitigation...
gmd.copernicus.org
May 1, 2026 at 7:01 PM
'The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7)'
@detlefvanvuuren.bsky.social et al. (2026)
No mention of CERESMIP, while it's crucial to compare models with the radiative flux changes in the real world.
@climateofgavin.bsky.social
gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...
@detlefvanvuuren.bsky.social et al. (2026)
No mention of CERESMIP, while it's crucial to compare models with the radiative flux changes in the real world.
@climateofgavin.bsky.social
gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...
In a world of policy reversal and active support for fossil fuel burning (the CMIP7 "High" scenario), we could end up well above 3C by 2100, have a ~70% chance of >4C by 2150, and a 30% chance of over 5C.
September 22, 2026 at 3:27 PM
In a world of policy reversal and active support for fossil fuel burning (the CMIP7 "High" scenario), we could end up well above 3C by 2100, have a ~70% chance of >4C by 2150, and a 30% chance of over 5C.
Ch3 proposes that SSP585 is often presented as business as usual. Cherry-picked examples ignore the strategy of the SSP framework, that high-emission scenarios are designed to inform the upper bound of climate risk -a moving target under constant discussion. egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7)
Abstract. Scenarios represent a critical tool in climate change analysis, enabling the exploration of future evolution of the climate system, climate impacts, and the human system (including mitigatio...
egusphere.copernicus.org
July 30, 2025 at 2:33 PM
Ch3 proposes that SSP585 is often presented as business as usual. Cherry-picked examples ignore the strategy of the SSP framework, that high-emission scenarios are designed to inform the upper bound of climate risk -a moving target under constant discussion. egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
Register for the CMIP7: UK Modelling Contribution webinar
📅 8 May 2025 | 10:00–11:30 AM (BST)
🔗 bit.ly/3GtCZDz
Bringing together those across the UK research community who are contributing —or planning to contribute—to CMIP7, particularly through Community MIPs.
📅 8 May 2025 | 10:00–11:30 AM (BST)
🔗 bit.ly/3GtCZDz
Bringing together those across the UK research community who are contributing —or planning to contribute—to CMIP7, particularly through Community MIPs.
May 2, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Register for the CMIP7: UK Modelling Contribution webinar
📅 8 May 2025 | 10:00–11:30 AM (BST)
🔗 bit.ly/3GtCZDz
Bringing together those across the UK research community who are contributing —or planning to contribute—to CMIP7, particularly through Community MIPs.
📅 8 May 2025 | 10:00–11:30 AM (BST)
🔗 bit.ly/3GtCZDz
Bringing together those across the UK research community who are contributing —or planning to contribute—to CMIP7, particularly through Community MIPs.
If you are planning to analyze CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track simulations, register to attend a CMIP7 Analysis Workshop! Each virtual workshop will focus on a fundamental CMIP7 science question. Learn more and register. wcrp-cmip.org/registration...
Registration Open for CMIP7 Analysis Workshops - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
We are pleased to invite the climate modelling community to participate in the CMIP7 Analysis Workshops, a new series of community-led virtual workshops
wcrp-cmip.org
September 21, 2026 at 6:01 PM
If you are planning to analyze CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track simulations, register to attend a CMIP7 Analysis Workshop! Each virtual workshop will focus on a fundamental CMIP7 science question. Learn more and register. wcrp-cmip.org/registration...
For context, the authors of the Nature article are the main organisers of the CMIP7 input data cat herding exercise.
August 26, 2025 at 1:23 PM
For context, the authors of the Nature article are the main organisers of the CMIP7 input data cat herding exercise.
Quellen und Weiterlesen
Die Primärquelle ist das Fachpaper "The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7" in Geoscientific Model Development. Es beschreibt die sieben neuen Szenarien und erklärt, warum SSP5-8.5 nicht mehr als plausibler Standardpfad gilt.
Die Primärquelle ist das Fachpaper "The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7" in Geoscientific Model Development. Es beschreibt die sieben neuen Szenarien und erklärt, warum SSP5-8.5 nicht mehr als plausibler Standardpfad gilt.
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7)
Abstract. Scenarios serve as a critical tool in climate change analysis, enabling the exploration of future evolution of the climate system, climate impacts, and the human system (including mitigation...
gmd.copernicus.org
May 23, 2026 at 6:50 AM
Quellen und Weiterlesen
Die Primärquelle ist das Fachpaper "The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7" in Geoscientific Model Development. Es beschreibt die sieben neuen Szenarien und erklärt, warum SSP5-8.5 nicht mehr als plausibler Standardpfad gilt.
Die Primärquelle ist das Fachpaper "The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7" in Geoscientific Model Development. Es beschreibt die sieben neuen Szenarien und erklärt, warum SSP5-8.5 nicht mehr als plausibler Standardpfad gilt.
Der akt. Diskurs zum Ende des High Emissiin Scenario geht nicht auf ein altes paper sondern auf eines aus April 2026 zurück, das Hausfather veranlasst hat anzukündigen, dass RCP8.5 aus dem nächsten IPCC-Bericht falle. Politisch naive Wissenschaft ist das. gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7)
Abstract. Scenarios serve as a critical tool in climate change analysis, enabling the exploration of future evolution of the climate system, climate impacts, and the human system (including mitigation...
gmd.copernicus.org
May 18, 2026 at 4:52 AM
Der akt. Diskurs zum Ende des High Emissiin Scenario geht nicht auf ein altes paper sondern auf eines aus April 2026 zurück, das Hausfather veranlasst hat anzukündigen, dass RCP8.5 aus dem nächsten IPCC-Bericht falle. Politisch naive Wissenschaft ist das. gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...
Guest post: How CMIP7 will shape the next wave of climate science
✍️ written by Beth Dingley, Helene Hewitt, John Dunne and Eleanor O'Rourke
Read here ⬇️
✍️ written by Beth Dingley, Helene Hewitt, John Dunne and Eleanor O'Rourke
Read here ⬇️
Guest post: How CMIP7 will shape the next wave of climate science - Carbon Brief
Hundreds of scientists in dozens of institutions are embarking on the next phase of the world’s largest coordinated climate-modelling effort.
www.carbonbrief.org
May 22, 2026 at 10:05 AM
Guest post: How CMIP7 will shape the next wave of climate science
✍️ written by Beth Dingley, Helene Hewitt, John Dunne and Eleanor O'Rourke
Read here ⬇️
✍️ written by Beth Dingley, Helene Hewitt, John Dunne and Eleanor O'Rourke
Read here ⬇️
The CMIP7 scenarios will be finalized in the coming months, and the new high scenario will be notably lower than in CMIP5/CMIP6.
February 12, 2026 at 4:20 AM
The CMIP7 scenarios will be finalized in the coming months, and the new high scenario will be notably lower than in CMIP5/CMIP6.
In this article, the new CMIP7 Emissions Scenarios reveal how much the world will rely on Carbon Dioxide Removal to stand any chance of holding to a 2ºC rise in temperature, let alone avoid a 3ºC world.
drtomharris.substack.com/p/the-carbon...
#climatechange #CMIP7 #emissions #CDR #SRM #IPCC
drtomharris.substack.com/p/the-carbon...
#climatechange #CMIP7 #emissions #CDR #SRM #IPCC
The Carbon Dioxide Removal implications of the new CMIP7 future emission scenarios
Out with RCP and SSP, the modelling community has published the new scenario set for the next IPCC reporting round. They throw CDR & SRM requirements into sharp focus for meeting the Paris goals.
drtomharris.substack.com
May 27, 2026 at 8:01 AM
In this article, the new CMIP7 Emissions Scenarios reveal how much the world will rely on Carbon Dioxide Removal to stand any chance of holding to a 2ºC rise in temperature, let alone avoid a 3ºC world.
drtomharris.substack.com/p/the-carbon...
#climatechange #CMIP7 #emissions #CDR #SRM #IPCC
drtomharris.substack.com/p/the-carbon...
#climatechange #CMIP7 #emissions #CDR #SRM #IPCC
Wichtige Einordnung
Nicht der IPCC streicht also („heimlich“) ein Szenario. Im wissenschaftlichen CMIP7-Prozess wurde ein neues Szenario-Set entwickelt, das künftige Klimamodellierungen prägt. Eine bedeutende Änderung, aber ein regulärer Aktualisierungsschritt, keine Widerlegung der Klimaforschung.
Nicht der IPCC streicht also („heimlich“) ein Szenario. Im wissenschaftlichen CMIP7-Prozess wurde ein neues Szenario-Set entwickelt, das künftige Klimamodellierungen prägt. Eine bedeutende Änderung, aber ein regulärer Aktualisierungsschritt, keine Widerlegung der Klimaforschung.
May 23, 2026 at 6:50 AM
Wichtige Einordnung
Nicht der IPCC streicht also („heimlich“) ein Szenario. Im wissenschaftlichen CMIP7-Prozess wurde ein neues Szenario-Set entwickelt, das künftige Klimamodellierungen prägt. Eine bedeutende Änderung, aber ein regulärer Aktualisierungsschritt, keine Widerlegung der Klimaforschung.
Nicht der IPCC streicht also („heimlich“) ein Szenario. Im wissenschaftlichen CMIP7-Prozess wurde ein neues Szenario-Set entwickelt, das künftige Klimamodellierungen prägt. Eine bedeutende Änderung, aber ein regulärer Aktualisierungsschritt, keine Widerlegung der Klimaforschung.
Some new preliminary CMIP7 scenarios have been proposed.
We already knew this but… Major reductions in global GHG emissions are required SOON to avoid surpassing 2C of (average) global warming. The paper also proposes that RCP8.5 emissions levels are implausible
gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...
We already knew this but… Major reductions in global GHG emissions are required SOON to avoid surpassing 2C of (average) global warming. The paper also proposes that RCP8.5 emissions levels are implausible
gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...
April 30, 2026 at 7:03 PM
Some new preliminary CMIP7 scenarios have been proposed.
We already knew this but… Major reductions in global GHG emissions are required SOON to avoid surpassing 2C of (average) global warming. The paper also proposes that RCP8.5 emissions levels are implausible
gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...
We already knew this but… Major reductions in global GHG emissions are required SOON to avoid surpassing 2C of (average) global warming. The paper also proposes that RCP8.5 emissions levels are implausible
gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...
And the „new“ extreme scenario in CMIP7 reaches the same temperature around 50 years later.
This changed the whole story for me completely.
Nothing got better for humanity as the projection still ends in „Game Over“ for our current game with passing 5°C.
In CMIP6 as well as in CMIP7.
This changed the whole story for me completely.
Nothing got better for humanity as the projection still ends in „Game Over“ for our current game with passing 5°C.
In CMIP6 as well as in CMIP7.
May 25, 2026 at 5:49 PM
And the „new“ extreme scenario in CMIP7 reaches the same temperature around 50 years later.
This changed the whole story for me completely.
Nothing got better for humanity as the projection still ends in „Game Over“ for our current game with passing 5°C.
In CMIP6 as well as in CMIP7.
This changed the whole story for me completely.
Nothing got better for humanity as the projection still ends in „Game Over“ for our current game with passing 5°C.
In CMIP6 as well as in CMIP7.