My statement regarding the recent developments at the IPCC and the uncertainty surrounding the Seventh Assessment Report (AR7).
Indecision has consequences for the scientists volunteering their time and expertise to this assessment.
@ipcc.bsky.social
#IPCC #AR7 #ClimateScience #ClimateChange
Indecision has consequences for the scientists volunteering their time and expertise to this assessment.
@ipcc.bsky.social
#IPCC #AR7 #ClimateScience #ClimateChange
November 5, 2026 at 8:58 PM
My statement regarding the recent developments at the IPCC and the uncertainty surrounding the Seventh Assessment Report (AR7).
Indecision has consequences for the scientists volunteering their time and expertise to this assessment.
@ipcc.bsky.social
#IPCC #AR7 #ClimateScience #ClimateChange
Indecision has consequences for the scientists volunteering their time and expertise to this assessment.
@ipcc.bsky.social
#IPCC #AR7 #ClimateScience #ClimateChange
They can't recompile the GST data to include AR7 if it's too late. But they could just delay the GST until after AR7. Idiotic if they don't.
November 7, 2026 at 5:11 PM
They can't recompile the GST data to include AR7 if it's too late. But they could just delay the GST until after AR7. Idiotic if they don't.
I could be wrong but presumably AR8 is delayed because of appeals over eligibility same as AR7 was rather than any ministerial decision?
November 4, 2026 at 12:13 PM
I could be wrong but presumably AR8 is delayed because of appeals over eligibility same as AR7 was rather than any ministerial decision?
🌄 Help shape the next #IPCC assessment of #ClimateChange in #OurChangingMountains!
Join our webinar to discover how to become an #AR7 WGII Expert Reviewer. Early-career scientists welcome!
📅 23 Nov | 13:15-14:15 CET
🔗 Register by 20 Nov: buff.ly/gWqWinf
Join our webinar to discover how to become an #AR7 WGII Expert Reviewer. Early-career scientists welcome!
📅 23 Nov | 13:15-14:15 CET
🔗 Register by 20 Nov: buff.ly/gWqWinf
November 5, 2026 at 7:45 AM
🌄 Help shape the next #IPCC assessment of #ClimateChange in #OurChangingMountains!
Join our webinar to discover how to become an #AR7 WGII Expert Reviewer. Early-career scientists welcome!
📅 23 Nov | 13:15-14:15 CET
🔗 Register by 20 Nov: buff.ly/gWqWinf
Join our webinar to discover how to become an #AR7 WGII Expert Reviewer. Early-career scientists welcome!
📅 23 Nov | 13:15-14:15 CET
🔗 Register by 20 Nov: buff.ly/gWqWinf
Capital flowed toward transition narratives, ignoring the planet's trajectory for two decades.
Now, in Arusha, Tanzania, IPCC scientists finalize AR7 report, marking the end of the data phase and the beginning of the hard truth phase.
Now, in Arusha, Tanzania, IPCC scientists finalize AR7 report, marking the end of the data phase and the beginning of the hard truth phase.
Climate Finance: IPCC scientists finalize AR7 report in Arusha, Tanzania, end
IPCC scientists finalize AR7 report in Arusha, Tanzania, ending data gathering.... Read more
www.ipcc.ch
November 4, 2026 at 7:01 PM
Capital flowed toward transition narratives, ignoring the planet's trajectory for two decades.
Now, in Arusha, Tanzania, IPCC scientists finalize AR7 report, marking the end of the data phase and the beginning of the hard truth phase.
Now, in Arusha, Tanzania, IPCC scientists finalize AR7 report, marking the end of the data phase and the beginning of the hard truth phase.
Not quite true: before AR7 the projection for the break even price over the lifetime of projects was £94.
Offshore wind AR7 price was £91.20.
Gas sets the price most of the time, but the more renewables we build, the more gas will be edged out.
Offshore wind AR7 price was £91.20.
Gas sets the price most of the time, but the more renewables we build, the more gas will be edged out.
(They won't lower bills because the price of energy is still always set by natural gas)
November 1, 2026 at 5:10 PM
Not quite true: before AR7 the projection for the break even price over the lifetime of projects was £94.
Offshore wind AR7 price was £91.20.
Gas sets the price most of the time, but the more renewables we build, the more gas will be edged out.
Offshore wind AR7 price was £91.20.
Gas sets the price most of the time, but the more renewables we build, the more gas will be edged out.
I feel like I’m missing something here… do people not watch the unit rates? How can anyone think gas is better when even AR7 rates look like a steal
November 1, 2026 at 9:13 AM
I feel like I’m missing something here… do people not watch the unit rates? How can anyone think gas is better when even AR7 rates look like a steal
It looks like I'm getting a few new follows from the 'IPCC AR7 Scientists on Bluesky' starter pack. Just for full disclosure: I was one of the LAs but now I am not (not enough time to do the role justice).
November 6, 2026 at 5:53 PM
It looks like I'm getting a few new follows from the 'IPCC AR7 Scientists on Bluesky' starter pack. Just for full disclosure: I was one of the LAs but now I am not (not enough time to do the role justice).
Not sure that’s necessarily true. Depends how you define increasing cost of course, but estimates were that even the quite expensive AR7 auction would just about lower bills.
And much easier to make that case post-Iran.
The more interesting one is if they applied this to nuclear…
And much easier to make that case post-Iran.
The more interesting one is if they applied this to nuclear…
October 31, 2026 at 12:47 PM
Not sure that’s necessarily true. Depends how you define increasing cost of course, but estimates were that even the quite expensive AR7 auction would just about lower bills.
And much easier to make that case post-Iran.
The more interesting one is if they applied this to nuclear…
And much easier to make that case post-Iran.
The more interesting one is if they applied this to nuclear…
197 IPCC authors are meeting in Arusha, Tanzania, Nov 2–6 to advance the physical science part of the next big climate assessment, working through expert review comments on the first draft.
is.gd/yvZEA1 #IPCC #ClimateAssessment #ClimateScience #ClimateData #AR7
is.gd/yvZEA1 #IPCC #ClimateAssessment #ClimateScience #ClimateData #AR7
November 3, 2026 at 12:45 AM
197 IPCC authors are meeting in Arusha, Tanzania, Nov 2–6 to advance the physical science part of the next big climate assessment, working through expert review comments on the first draft.
is.gd/yvZEA1 #IPCC #ClimateAssessment #ClimateScience #ClimateData #AR7
is.gd/yvZEA1 #IPCC #ClimateAssessment #ClimateScience #ClimateData #AR7
I wish I was clear what that actually means. All the AR7 fixed bottom OFW projects could say they lowered bills. Can connect? Does that mean at time of auction or at time of delivery? How does that interact with flex connections/active network management?
November 3, 2026 at 9:04 AM
I wish I was clear what that actually means. All the AR7 fixed bottom OFW projects could say they lowered bills. Can connect? Does that mean at time of auction or at time of delivery? How does that interact with flex connections/active network management?
Def not a bar to OFW (Flow maybe as long as they are happy to kill that tech) Costs are not that different to AR7
N exists in its own special bubble where VfM assessment is a work of fiction
N exists in its own special bubble where VfM assessment is a work of fiction
October 31, 2026 at 4:06 PM
Def not a bar to OFW (Flow maybe as long as they are happy to kill that tech) Costs are not that different to AR7
N exists in its own special bubble where VfM assessment is a work of fiction
N exists in its own special bubble where VfM assessment is a work of fiction
Anyway, nuclear snark aside, if you want an explainer on offshore wind costs, here is what I wrote after the AR7 offshore wind auction early this year…
www.nesta.org.uk/blog/the-ene...
www.nesta.org.uk/blog/the-ene...
The energy edit: what do the offshore wind auction and the Warm Homes Plan mean for energy bills?
Every six weeks Andrew Sissons - deputy director of the sustainable future mission - will assess the most important signals and trends underpinning the UK’s energy transition.
www.nesta.org.uk
October 31, 2026 at 12:57 PM
Anyway, nuclear snark aside, if you want an explainer on offshore wind costs, here is what I wrote after the AR7 offshore wind auction early this year…
www.nesta.org.uk/blog/the-ene...
www.nesta.org.uk/blog/the-ene...
No one can really be sure how much is substance and how much bluster. Best guess is Flow shd be nervious and we'll see less fixed bottom than AR7. We'll see the pot in a couple of weeks, might give clues. <5GW misses CP30, eff <8 allowing for drop outs.
BUS cuts are 800m on original path.
BUS cuts are 800m on original path.
November 1, 2026 at 10:56 AM
No one can really be sure how much is substance and how much bluster. Best guess is Flow shd be nervious and we'll see less fixed bottom than AR7. We'll see the pot in a couple of weeks, might give clues. <5GW misses CP30, eff <8 allowing for drop outs.
BUS cuts are 800m on original path.
BUS cuts are 800m on original path.
You'd have to re-run AR8 at this point which I imagine is effectively impossible; they'd get JR'd. We might be looking at a proposal-consultation cycle for AR9 like the one which delayed AR7
November 1, 2026 at 10:14 AM
You'd have to re-run AR8 at this point which I imagine is effectively impossible; they'd get JR'd. We might be looking at a proposal-consultation cycle for AR9 like the one which delayed AR7
Berwick Bank phases A and C are ready to bid in AR8, (1.4GW each), planning all awarded
phase B was successful earlier this year in AR7
phase B was successful earlier this year in AR7
October 31, 2026 at 8:55 PM
Berwick Bank phases A and C are ready to bid in AR8, (1.4GW each), planning all awarded
phase B was successful earlier this year in AR7
phase B was successful earlier this year in AR7
The October MRI Newsletter is out! 🏔️📬
🧊 Glacier governance & #cryosphere data
🌍 Fifth International Polar Year
🤝 #IPCC #AR7 & upcoming events
📢 Jobs, funding & more
Plus, reflections on the invisible work sustaining scientific collaboration.
📖 bit.ly/MRIOctober26NL
#OurChangingMountains
🧊 Glacier governance & #cryosphere data
🌍 Fifth International Polar Year
🤝 #IPCC #AR7 & upcoming events
📢 Jobs, funding & more
Plus, reflections on the invisible work sustaining scientific collaboration.
📖 bit.ly/MRIOctober26NL
#OurChangingMountains
October 30, 2026 at 1:06 PM
The October MRI Newsletter is out! 🏔️📬
🧊 Glacier governance & #cryosphere data
🌍 Fifth International Polar Year
🤝 #IPCC #AR7 & upcoming events
📢 Jobs, funding & more
Plus, reflections on the invisible work sustaining scientific collaboration.
📖 bit.ly/MRIOctober26NL
#OurChangingMountains
🧊 Glacier governance & #cryosphere data
🌍 Fifth International Polar Year
🤝 #IPCC #AR7 & upcoming events
📢 Jobs, funding & more
Plus, reflections on the invisible work sustaining scientific collaboration.
📖 bit.ly/MRIOctober26NL
#OurChangingMountains
But not all AR7 projects meet his 'can connect to the grid' test, because they depend on grid infrastructure that is still coming through the delivery.
If the grid capacity doesn't already exist he won't approve the windfarms, and the grid cannot be built unless govt approves it over the NIMBies.
If the grid capacity doesn't already exist he won't approve the windfarms, and the grid cannot be built unless govt approves it over the NIMBies.
October 31, 2026 at 2:48 PM
But not all AR7 projects meet his 'can connect to the grid' test, because they depend on grid infrastructure that is still coming through the delivery.
If the grid capacity doesn't already exist he won't approve the windfarms, and the grid cannot be built unless govt approves it over the NIMBies.
If the grid capacity doesn't already exist he won't approve the windfarms, and the grid cannot be built unless govt approves it over the NIMBies.
195 member states _govern_ the IPCC. The member states _elect_ a bureau of scientists to serve through an "Assessment" cycle (currently #ar7). So #ipcc assessments depend on governments.
On the contrary, climate scientists build consensus science without the IPCC or governments […]
On the contrary, climate scientists build consensus science without the IPCC or governments […]
Original post on social.coop
social.coop
October 31, 2026 at 10:26 AM
Yes. I hope that the #ScenarioCompass initiative will have two effects:
1) increase adoption of better calibration procedures and more care in scenario design among (IAM) modeling teams
2) allow more nuanced analysis by scenario users
Hope that this will also prove useful for IOCC’s #AR7…
1) increase adoption of better calibration procedures and more care in scenario design among (IAM) modeling teams
2) allow more nuanced analysis by scenario users
Hope that this will also prove useful for IOCC’s #AR7…
October 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM
Yes. I hope that the #ScenarioCompass initiative will have two effects:
1) increase adoption of better calibration procedures and more care in scenario design among (IAM) modeling teams
2) allow more nuanced analysis by scenario users
Hope that this will also prove useful for IOCC’s #AR7…
1) increase adoption of better calibration procedures and more care in scenario design among (IAM) modeling teams
2) allow more nuanced analysis by scenario users
Hope that this will also prove useful for IOCC’s #AR7…
AR7 will be based on the literature from AR6, primarily (sometimes earlier literature is still there). But, I doubt there will be a paper that will come that would completely change conclusions. Sure, papers may come that add more nuance.
October 29, 2026 at 3:07 PM
AR7 will be based on the literature from AR6, primarily (sometimes earlier literature is still there). But, I doubt there will be a paper that will come that would completely change conclusions. Sure, papers may come that add more nuance.
There's lots of confusion about recent IPCC meeting. The disagreement, absent US presence, is about timing & what the reports are to serve, not whether to finish them. The $24m USD to finish AR7 is a rounding error, being withheld for negotiating power. www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Global climate body fights for survival: why the IPCC must be saved
The UN organization faces perhaps the most serious crisis in its nearly 40-year history — but it is too precious to lose.
www.nature.com
October 29, 2026 at 4:32 PM
There's lots of confusion about recent IPCC meeting. The disagreement, absent US presence, is about timing & what the reports are to serve, not whether to finish them. The $24m USD to finish AR7 is a rounding error, being withheld for negotiating power. www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Not to burst the bubble but the peak of CfDs has passed.
AR4 wind farms (we're up to AR7 now) were financed at rock bottom prices, with a loose European supply chain.
CfDs will never be that low again.
The good news is, they are juuuust about to hit the system. And they are big.
AR4 wind farms (we're up to AR7 now) were financed at rock bottom prices, with a loose European supply chain.
CfDs will never be that low again.
The good news is, they are juuuust about to hit the system. And they are big.
October 28, 2026 at 8:08 PM
Not to burst the bubble but the peak of CfDs has passed.
AR4 wind farms (we're up to AR7 now) were financed at rock bottom prices, with a loose European supply chain.
CfDs will never be that low again.
The good news is, they are juuuust about to hit the system. And they are big.
AR4 wind farms (we're up to AR7 now) were financed at rock bottom prices, with a loose European supply chain.
CfDs will never be that low again.
The good news is, they are juuuust about to hit the system. And they are big.