A fun question. In 5 years time, what looks better? The US’s enormous bet & capex on AI? Or China’s equally enormous bet and capex on renewables?
China has made cheap, clean energy available in huge quantities. The world should take the win econ.st/4oqFszB
Photo: Eyevine
Photo: Eyevine
November 7, 2025 at 7:10 AM
A fun question. In 5 years time, what looks better? The US’s enormous bet & capex on AI? Or China’s equally enormous bet and capex on renewables?
It’s all about the capex. 🇺🇸
July 22, 2025 at 2:40 PM
It’s all about the capex. 🇺🇸
Not going to pile on the onshore-iPhones guy directly but a philosophical problem you run into when doing onshore capex to avoid the whims of a mad king is that you have then done your capex in the country ruled by said mad king
May 23, 2025 at 9:50 PM
Not going to pile on the onshore-iPhones guy directly but a philosophical problem you run into when doing onshore capex to avoid the whims of a mad king is that you have then done your capex in the country ruled by said mad king
Nominating "There's no justification for this however you cut it but the beatings will continue until a stillborn god is born." for perfect sentences, @lifewinning.com
September 10, 2025 at 3:39 AM
Nominating "There's no justification for this however you cut it but the beatings will continue until a stillborn god is born." for perfect sentences, @lifewinning.com
April 10, 2026 at 1:06 AM
This also makes me ask: where the hell is all of Microsoft’s capex going?
September 11, 2026 at 8:27 PM
This also makes me ask: where the hell is all of Microsoft’s capex going?
Oil capex guidance is now a very big deal. #OOTT
The US produces >13 mn barrels of oil per day. Venezuela produces <1 million bpd
There's a global oil glut i.e. lower prices. That's bad for US producers, who need higher prices to break even. Hard to imagine they're eager to make big new investments in an unstable place w/ decrepit infrastructure
There's a global oil glut i.e. lower prices. That's bad for US producers, who need higher prices to break even. Hard to imagine they're eager to make big new investments in an unstable place w/ decrepit infrastructure
January 3, 2026 at 9:43 PM
Oil capex guidance is now a very big deal. #OOTT
like a man with a full back tattoo of a phoenix should not know how to use the phrase "capex spend" correctly
January 18, 2026 at 5:50 AM
like a man with a full back tattoo of a phoenix should not know how to use the phrase "capex spend" correctly
Politico’s piece explains why, even with tariffs, US manufacturing capex expectations are near multi-year lows.
@politico.com 🤡
www.politico.com/news/2025/10...
@politico.com 🤡
www.politico.com/news/2025/10...
October 19, 2025 at 3:12 PM
Politico’s piece explains why, even with tariffs, US manufacturing capex expectations are near multi-year lows.
@politico.com 🤡
www.politico.com/news/2025/10...
@politico.com 🤡
www.politico.com/news/2025/10...
like greentech build out requires huge amounts of innovation policy and capex. if designed properly, it should make people wealthier, not poorer
September 21, 2026 at 2:17 PM
like greentech build out requires huge amounts of innovation policy and capex. if designed properly, it should make people wealthier, not poorer
Six-month capex expectations from Empire Fed survey. New cycle low.
June 17, 2025 at 11:08 AM
Six-month capex expectations from Empire Fed survey. New cycle low.
The problem is that the actual economic significance of LLMs is very small - $40bn this year? - compared to the economic activity required to sustain it ($400bn+ capex/vc). Will every government fund every data center buildout? What about their capex? Or will the illusion break?
The assumption I assume now is that OpenAI and it's clients need to convince the government to prop it up before then...even then, I dunno if that'd save them from being torn apart by the markets when the wind changes.
September 5, 2025 at 5:46 AM
The problem is that the actual economic significance of LLMs is very small - $40bn this year? - compared to the economic activity required to sustain it ($400bn+ capex/vc). Will every government fund every data center buildout? What about their capex? Or will the illusion break?
well thankfully Microsoft hasn't spent too much money on th- OH MY GOD!
www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-...
www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-...
June 4, 2025 at 6:41 PM
well thankfully Microsoft hasn't spent too much money on th- OH MY GOD!
www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-...
www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-...
The thing nobody wants to say yet is addressing inflation would mean actually slowing down AI capex. If you’re not impacting capex you’re not doing enough.
September 11, 2026 at 12:34 PM
The thing nobody wants to say yet is addressing inflation would mean actually slowing down AI capex. If you’re not impacting capex you’re not doing enough.
Apple could make a new retro ipod nano and shit gold for a decade. Instead they’re doing AI capex plays nobody wants
Apple CEO Tim Cook is signaling that Visual Intelligence will be the defining feature of the company’s push into wearable AI devices, writes Mark Gurman.
Read this week's Power On newsletter: bloom.bg/3OH2Cot
📷️: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg
Read this week's Power On newsletter: bloom.bg/3OH2Cot
📷️: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg
February 22, 2026 at 2:04 PM
Apple could make a new retro ipod nano and shit gold for a decade. Instead they’re doing AI capex plays nobody wants
Really great chart from Matt Klein showing how much tariffs are dropping businesses’ capex plans and increasing their input cost expectations.
March 6, 2025 at 6:54 PM
Really great chart from Matt Klein showing how much tariffs are dropping businesses’ capex plans and increasing their input cost expectations.
Hyperscalers aside, it’s been a rough week for CapEx intentions. 👀
July 25, 2025 at 12:06 PM
Hyperscalers aside, it’s been a rough week for CapEx intentions. 👀
the problem is that the market is getting jittery about AI stocks right now and this one is entirely based on AI hype
“no capex, only growth”
spacex is all capex zero growth
“no capex, only growth”
spacex is all capex zero growth
I'll be honest I thought the vibe weirdness would last a LITTLE longer on this one.
Not, to be clear, much longer, but I thought it wouldn't crash at all till basically the start of next month, then it would start to tunnel underground.
But yeah, how was this unexpected.
Not, to be clear, much longer, but I thought it wouldn't crash at all till basically the start of next month, then it would start to tunnel underground.
But yeah, how was this unexpected.
July 23, 2026 at 3:54 PM
the problem is that the market is getting jittery about AI stocks right now and this one is entirely based on AI hype
“no capex, only growth”
spacex is all capex zero growth
“no capex, only growth”
spacex is all capex zero growth
Taneja forecasts $20 billion in CapEx over 2026, which would make it Tesla's biggest CapEx year ever. He calls the prospect "daunting."
Gonna be real interesting if the car sales keep tanking!
Gonna be real interesting if the car sales keep tanking!
January 28, 2026 at 10:55 PM
Taneja forecasts $20 billion in CapEx over 2026, which would make it Tesla's biggest CapEx year ever. He calls the prospect "daunting."
Gonna be real interesting if the car sales keep tanking!
Gonna be real interesting if the car sales keep tanking!
NY Fed's Services capex component: new cycle low. 🇺🇸
(via Kevin Gordon)
(via Kevin Gordon)
May 16, 2025 at 12:46 PM
NY Fed's Services capex component: new cycle low. 🇺🇸
(via Kevin Gordon)
(via Kevin Gordon)
Now that’s a capex chart. 🇺🇸
(via Yardeni)
(via Yardeni)
May 1, 2026 at 10:31 AM
Now that’s a capex chart. 🇺🇸
(via Yardeni)
(via Yardeni)
When your army of masked “police” get in the way of your capex “boom”:
@wsj.com $META
www.wsj.com/us-news/ice-...
@wsj.com $META
www.wsj.com/us-news/ice-...
January 15, 2026 at 1:07 PM
When your army of masked “police” get in the way of your capex “boom”:
@wsj.com $META
www.wsj.com/us-news/ice-...
@wsj.com $META
www.wsj.com/us-news/ice-...
Anyhow GOOGL just reported Q2 capex 23% higher than expected, raised full year capex guide by 13% (or $10bn), is now spending 23% of revenues on capex, and said it's going to increase capex spend further in 2026. So they're putting their money where their mouth is.
July 23, 2025 at 9:03 PM
Anyhow GOOGL just reported Q2 capex 23% higher than expected, raised full year capex guide by 13% (or $10bn), is now spending 23% of revenues on capex, and said it's going to increase capex spend further in 2026. So they're putting their money where their mouth is.