So called defections are fake
November 4, 2026 at 1:36 AM
So called defections are fake
Schnorkles continued drum banging that the most important number tonight is the number of D defections vs. the number of R defections.
That number is probably low teens.
That number is probably low teens.
This isn't just a turnout issue, loads of Dem candidates are getting more raw votes than Harris did despite it being a midterm
Hamilton, Andrews, Talarico (Hinojosa should get there too). It's just a total R collapse
Hamilton, Andrews, Talarico (Hinojosa should get there too). It's just a total R collapse
November 4, 2026 at 5:26 AM
Schnorkles continued drum banging that the most important number tonight is the number of D defections vs. the number of R defections.
That number is probably low teens.
That number is probably low teens.
Almost certainly Alito, leaking to prevent defections from imposing Catholic theology as policy.
The Trump-owned Justice Dept seems to think Dobbs was a Liberal leak. But the leak shut down Liberal justices’ attempts at reaching a compromise. Most likely it was Alito himself or a cohort. Saying he has “a pretty good idea who is responsible” illustrates his supreme arrogance. archive.is/Zgkq9
DOJ Steps Up Leak Investigation on Supreme Court Decision Overturning Roe v. Wade
Investigators, using subpoenas and other law enforcement powers, are accelerating an inquiry that takes the Trump administration into the inner workings of the court.
www.nytimes.com
November 6, 2026 at 3:40 PM
Almost certainly Alito, leaking to prevent defections from imposing Catholic theology as policy.
There will be republican defections.
November 5, 2026 at 1:03 PM
There will be republican defections.
The messaging was even softer in 2018, and he was impeached with zero Democratic defections 13 months later
November 5, 2026 at 6:33 PM
The messaging was even softer in 2018, and he was impeached with zero Democratic defections 13 months later
"The blue tsunami was caused by a Latino earthquake."
ICYMI, @adriancarrasquillo.bsky.social on the midterms and the Hispanic vote:
ICYMI, @adriancarrasquillo.bsky.social on the midterms and the Hispanic vote:
‘Latino Fury’: How Anti-ICE Fervor Helped Democrats Take Back Congress
Trump promised mass deportations. His party got mass defections.
lnk.thebulwark.com
November 5, 2026 at 7:00 PM
"The blue tsunami was caused by a Latino earthquake."
ICYMI, @adriancarrasquillo.bsky.social on the midterms and the Hispanic vote:
ICYMI, @adriancarrasquillo.bsky.social on the midterms and the Hispanic vote:
D's are right in line with their benchmarks on most of these EVs
Pasco: actual -1 vs benchmark even
Osceola: +24 vs +23
Alachua: +43 vs +35
Broward +40 vs +36
Benchmarks were based on 5% D defections, 8% R defections, NPA +30 applied to the actual early+mail electorate
Pasco: actual -1 vs benchmark even
Osceola: +24 vs +23
Alachua: +43 vs +35
Broward +40 vs +36
Benchmarks were based on 5% D defections, 8% R defections, NPA +30 applied to the actual early+mail electorate
November 4, 2026 at 12:10 AM
D's are right in line with their benchmarks on most of these EVs
Pasco: actual -1 vs benchmark even
Osceola: +24 vs +23
Alachua: +43 vs +35
Broward +40 vs +36
Benchmarks were based on 5% D defections, 8% R defections, NPA +30 applied to the actual early+mail electorate
Pasco: actual -1 vs benchmark even
Osceola: +24 vs +23
Alachua: +43 vs +35
Broward +40 vs +36
Benchmarks were based on 5% D defections, 8% R defections, NPA +30 applied to the actual early+mail electorate
BREAKING: DOJ Election Chief Resigns, WH Panics Over GOP Defections, Burgum’s Data Center Payday Exposed, and more...
open.substack.com/pub/adamkinz...
open.substack.com/pub/adamkinz...
BREAKING: DOJ Election Chief Resigns, WH Panics Over GOP Defections, Burgum’s Data Center Payday Exposed, and more...
Top Stories for November 6, 2026.
open.substack.com
November 6, 2026 at 11:25 PM
BREAKING: DOJ Election Chief Resigns, WH Panics Over GOP Defections, Burgum’s Data Center Payday Exposed, and more...
open.substack.com/pub/adamkinz...
open.substack.com/pub/adamkinz...
Talarico ignored the fear some Democrats had of being viewed as a defund-ICE candidate, choosing instead to reflect the sentiments many Latino (and other) Texans were feeling about ICE. He was right.
‘Latino Fury’: How Anti-ICE Fervor Helped Democrats Take Back Congress
Trump promised mass deportations. His party got mass defections.
lnk.thebulwark.com
November 5, 2026 at 7:00 AM
Talarico ignored the fear some Democrats had of being viewed as a defund-ICE candidate, choosing instead to reflect the sentiments many Latino (and other) Texans were feeling about ICE. He was right.
We have our first big resignation since the election, and it’s the Justice Department official behind Trump’s whole election strategy. Harmeet Dhillon took an office built to protect voters and used it to intimidate them, all to soothe Trump’s ego. Now she’s out.
open.substack.com/pub/adamkinz...
open.substack.com/pub/adamkinz...
BREAKING: DOJ Election Chief Resigns, WH Panics Over GOP Defections, Burgum’s Data Center Payday Exposed, and more...
Top Stories for November 6, 2026.
open.substack.com
November 6, 2026 at 8:23 PM
We have our first big resignation since the election, and it’s the Justice Department official behind Trump’s whole election strategy. Harmeet Dhillon took an office built to protect voters and used it to intimidate them, all to soothe Trump’s ego. Now she’s out.
open.substack.com/pub/adamkinz...
open.substack.com/pub/adamkinz...
"Hispanic voters understood Trump to be opposed to immigrant crime, but over the past two years, Latinos in America experienced degrading levels of racial profiling." Last night, they spoke.
‘Latino Fury’: How Anti-ICE Fervor Helped Democrats Take Back Congress
Trump promised mass deportations. His party got mass defections.
lnk.thebulwark.com
November 5, 2026 at 3:30 AM
"Hispanic voters understood Trump to be opposed to immigrant crime, but over the past two years, Latinos in America experienced degrading levels of racial profiling." Last night, they spoke.
MAGA is dead and the GOP knows it. Expect defections.
November 4, 2026 at 11:03 AM
MAGA is dead and the GOP knows it. Expect defections.
If they aren’t kicked out expect mass defections
November 5, 2026 at 1:35 AM
If they aren’t kicked out expect mass defections
Same goes for veto overrides. Regardless of who the next speaker is, I see potential for a lot of defections. Miller is all stick, no carrot
November 6, 2026 at 7:06 PM
Same goes for veto overrides. Regardless of who the next speaker is, I see potential for a lot of defections. Miller is all stick, no carrot
Wait 'til they get to the realization that the blue wave was in part due to Republican defections.
Anyway, post game analysis will be wild.
Anyway, post game analysis will be wild.
November 7, 2026 at 3:33 PM
Wait 'til they get to the realization that the blue wave was in part due to Republican defections.
Anyway, post game analysis will be wild.
Anyway, post game analysis will be wild.
A reminder that the stupid plane has been saying for awhile now that the most important number for how tonight goes is the difference between Dem and GOP defections against their own party.
November 3, 2026 at 11:18 PM
A reminder that the stupid plane has been saying for awhile now that the most important number for how tonight goes is the difference between Dem and GOP defections against their own party.
I called it (sort of) based on the white defections in GA-14 bsky.app/profile/mero...
Senator Scott Colom (D-MS)
November 5, 2026 at 10:25 PM
I called it (sort of) based on the white defections in GA-14 bsky.app/profile/mero...
Yes, based on 5% D defections, 8% R defections and NPAs D+30
November 4, 2026 at 12:04 AM
Yes, based on 5% D defections, 8% R defections and NPAs D+30
The thought of getting 4 defections for a veto proof majority is the cherry on top
November 4, 2026 at 5:54 PM
The thought of getting 4 defections for a veto proof majority is the cherry on top
Idk, you might get more party defections and an insane NPA break from there too.
November 3, 2026 at 11:39 PM
Idk, you might get more party defections and an insane NPA break from there too.
I am hoping for a large number of republican defections
We will see if it happens with this kegseth impeachment
We will see if it happens with this kegseth impeachment
November 5, 2026 at 10:18 PM
I am hoping for a large number of republican defections
We will see if it happens with this kegseth impeachment
We will see if it happens with this kegseth impeachment
Updated turnout reports for Florida and Nevada and added NM.
Right now, if there were no partisan defections, FL Democrats need 65.9% of the other vote to win statewide. That is still within reach
Right now, if there were no partisan defections, FL Democrats need 65.9% of the other vote to win statewide. That is still within reach
November 3, 2026 at 7:35 PM
Updated turnout reports for Florida and Nevada and added NM.
Right now, if there were no partisan defections, FL Democrats need 65.9% of the other vote to win statewide. That is still within reach
Right now, if there were no partisan defections, FL Democrats need 65.9% of the other vote to win statewide. That is still within reach