Eday will be redder but holy shit
November 4, 2026 at 12:07 AM
Eday will be redder but holy shit
No he got lucky. This is eday text
November 6, 2026 at 4:18 AM
No he got lucky. This is eday text
still need to see eday but good God was the EV apocalyptic for him and I don't think eday was that red by registration...
November 4, 2026 at 1:32 AM
still need to see eday but good God was the EV apocalyptic for him and I don't think eday was that red by registration...
low eday turnout is bad news for Rs.
November 3, 2026 at 7:29 PM
low eday turnout is bad news for Rs.
Isn't Miami-Dade eday often not much redder than that EV at all?
November 4, 2026 at 12:15 AM
Isn't Miami-Dade eday often not much redder than that EV at all?
I need EDay votes so badly
November 3, 2026 at 11:57 PM
I need EDay votes so badly
Dembo gained with the latest vote drop
Trump+50 county, still need the eday
Trump+50 county, still need the eday
November 3, 2026 at 11:37 PM
Dembo gained with the latest vote drop
Trump+50 county, still need the eday
Trump+50 county, still need the eday
The fact that we still have no eday almost 50 minutes later… don’t irritate me!
November 3, 2026 at 11:50 PM
The fact that we still have no eday almost 50 minutes later… don’t irritate me!
afternoon refresh: Rs' good morning seems to maybe be coming to an end as Dems start increasing their share of the eday vote
Rs off to a very red start in Florida eday, but one thing I hadn't considered is that unlike in EV, everywhere is open from 7-7 today—mornings may have only skewed blue in EV because bluer counties opened earlier in the morning (Dems closing strong in the evening is a more established pattern)
November 3, 2026 at 6:14 PM
afternoon refresh: Rs' good morning seems to maybe be coming to an end as Dems start increasing their share of the eday vote
Collin hardly moved at all with EDay
Nearly a 24% swing there
(Hinojosa +6)
Nearly a 24% swing there
(Hinojosa +6)
November 4, 2026 at 5:06 AM
Collin hardly moved at all with EDay
Nearly a 24% swing there
(Hinojosa +6)
Nearly a 24% swing there
(Hinojosa +6)
they both might hold on but this will...actually come down to eday, NPAs, and the goddamn Panhandle
November 4, 2026 at 12:30 AM
they both might hold on but this will...actually come down to eday, NPAs, and the goddamn Panhandle
they better hope what's left of eday is red as hell (it could be!)
November 4, 2026 at 6:06 AM
they better hope what's left of eday is red as hell (it could be!)
also were I not opposed to gambling on principle I would bet money eday finishes a good bit bluer than that
November 3, 2026 at 5:46 PM
also were I not opposed to gambling on principle I would bet money eday finishes a good bit bluer than that
idk if it's real, but that's a much better start than 2024's EV there
EDay should narrow the gap though
EDay should narrow the gap though
November 3, 2026 at 11:09 PM
idk if it's real, but that's a much better start than 2024's EV there
EDay should narrow the gap though
EDay should narrow the gap though
November 6, 2026 at 6:41 PM
A couple of thoughts:
One of the dangers of GOTV locking on intraparty turnout (strategically correct still!) is that you go into Eday kind of blind to the wider picture.
One of the dangers of GOTV locking on intraparty turnout (strategically correct still!) is that you go into Eday kind of blind to the wider picture.
November 7, 2026 at 12:59 PM
A couple of thoughts:
One of the dangers of GOTV locking on intraparty turnout (strategically correct still!) is that you go into Eday kind of blind to the wider picture.
One of the dangers of GOTV locking on intraparty turnout (strategically correct still!) is that you go into Eday kind of blind to the wider picture.
EDay has to be exceptionally red here, but Trump won this county's early vote by over 25%
November 4, 2026 at 12:30 AM
EDay has to be exceptionally red here, but Trump won this county's early vote by over 25%
registered Republicans have fallen below 50% of the eday electorate as of 3 PM and will almost certainly continue to fall as the day progresses
November 3, 2026 at 8:08 PM
registered Republicans have fallen below 50% of the eday electorate as of 3 PM and will almost certainly continue to fall as the day progresses
Duval - major vote mode switches in FL, vs '24. The Eday vote was +6R in '24, now +20R. But the early vote shifted almost 13 pts to Dems, and the Eday vote isn't enough to counteract that. Still just a rough estimate, but it looks like about a 5 pt shift to Dems (turnout share).
November 3, 2026 at 6:45 PM
Duval - major vote mode switches in FL, vs '24. The Eday vote was +6R in '24, now +20R. But the early vote shifted almost 13 pts to Dems, and the Eday vote isn't enough to counteract that. Still just a rough estimate, but it looks like about a 5 pt shift to Dems (turnout share).
Actual Election Day turnout data!!! FL does a good job of sharing this info. I'm going to start with Orange County, where the Eday turnout is evenly split between GOPs and Dems. In 2024, the total Eday vote was Dem +3.6%. So that is a shift to GOPs. Good for them? Probably not.
November 3, 2026 at 5:45 PM
Actual Election Day turnout data!!! FL does a good job of sharing this info. I'm going to start with Orange County, where the Eday turnout is evenly split between GOPs and Dems. In 2024, the total Eday vote was Dem +3.6%. So that is a shift to GOPs. Good for them? Probably not.
Borderline safe peltola - no VBM has been reported yet, and a supermajority of outstanding EDay precincts are in HDs 36-40, the super blue native-heavy rurals
Second update has it nearly tied
November 4, 2026 at 7:06 AM
Borderline safe peltola - no VBM has been reported yet, and a supermajority of outstanding EDay precincts are in HDs 36-40, the super blue native-heavy rurals
The COS in Trump 1.0 called him a fascist (a big story before Eday '24 that the media largely ignored). Now the COS will be an actual fascist.
November 6, 2026 at 7:22 PM
The COS in Trump 1.0 called him a fascist (a big story before Eday '24 that the media largely ignored). Now the COS will be an actual fascist.
if anyone has the hourly eday data from 2024 or 2022 it would be appreciated though I doubt anyone does
November 3, 2026 at 12:25 PM
if anyone has the hourly eday data from 2024 or 2022 it would be appreciated though I doubt anyone does
The election day vote so far is Talarico +33, with 44/59 precincts reporting
No blood red eday to save Rs in south texas
No blood red eday to save Rs in south texas
November 4, 2026 at 3:41 AM
The election day vote so far is Talarico +33, with 44/59 precincts reporting
No blood red eday to save Rs in south texas
No blood red eday to save Rs in south texas
November 5, 2026 at 9:43 PM