According to ERA5 reanalysis, Florida had its wettest October on record (1940-present).
November 7, 2026 at 5:05 PM
According to ERA5 reanalysis, Florida had its wettest October on record (1940-present).
Punktlandung (für die ERA5-Daten von @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social ):
Prognose vor 13 Tagen war eine Oktober-Anomalie von 0,85-0,95°C.
Heute gemeldet wurde 0,90°C.
Jahr ERA5 (vs. 1991-2020) [1850-1900]
26 0,9±0,5°C [1,75°C]‼️
23 0,85°C [1,70°C]
24 0,80°C [1,65°C]
25 0,70°C [1,55°C]
Prognose vor 13 Tagen war eine Oktober-Anomalie von 0,85-0,95°C.
Heute gemeldet wurde 0,90°C.
Jahr ERA5 (vs. 1991-2020) [1850-1900]
26 0,9±0,5°C [1,75°C]‼️
23 0,85°C [1,70°C]
24 0,80°C [1,65°C]
25 0,70°C [1,55°C]
November 6, 2026 at 12:05 PM
Punktlandung (für die ERA5-Daten von @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social ):
Prognose vor 13 Tagen war eine Oktober-Anomalie von 0,85-0,95°C.
Heute gemeldet wurde 0,90°C.
Jahr ERA5 (vs. 1991-2020) [1850-1900]
26 0,9±0,5°C [1,75°C]‼️
23 0,85°C [1,70°C]
24 0,80°C [1,65°C]
25 0,70°C [1,55°C]
Prognose vor 13 Tagen war eine Oktober-Anomalie von 0,85-0,95°C.
Heute gemeldet wurde 0,90°C.
Jahr ERA5 (vs. 1991-2020) [1850-1900]
26 0,9±0,5°C [1,75°C]‼️
23 0,85°C [1,70°C]
24 0,80°C [1,65°C]
25 0,70°C [1,55°C]
Not a specialist but possible "unseasonal" stratospheric warming fascinates me. Here's 2026 ERA5 60N 10hPa u-wind vs. the >1000 years of Oct seasonal hindcast data from 1981-2025. This year sits at 0.9th percentile of u (ERA5 with 5-day lag). Or you could say 1/0.009 = 111-year return period.
November 7, 2026 at 12:22 PM
Not a specialist but possible "unseasonal" stratospheric warming fascinates me. Here's 2026 ERA5 60N 10hPa u-wind vs. the >1000 years of Oct seasonal hindcast data from 1981-2025. This year sits at 0.9th percentile of u (ERA5 with 5-day lag). Or you could say 1/0.009 = 111-year return period.
Global temperatures have tied their all-time highest value on record at 2.04C above preindustrial levels (measured as a change from the 1850-1900 period) in the Copernicus/ERA5 dataset. The prior record was set back in November 2023.
The world has now experienced seven days above 2C.
The world has now experienced seven days above 2C.
November 6, 2026 at 7:17 PM
Global temperatures have tied their all-time highest value on record at 2.04C above preindustrial levels (measured as a change from the 1850-1900 period) in the Copernicus/ERA5 dataset. The prior record was set back in November 2023.
The world has now experienced seven days above 2C.
The world has now experienced seven days above 2C.
October 2026 was the warmest October on record in Copernicus' ERA5 dataset, coming in at 1.75C above preindustrial levels.
November 2, 2026 at 7:52 PM
October 2026 was the warmest October on record in Copernicus' ERA5 dataset, coming in at 1.75C above preindustrial levels.
Yes, these station-based datasets do not resolve microclimates very well, but they can be found in datasets such as doi.org/10.24381/cds...
ERA5-Land monthly averaged data from 1950 to present
ERA5-Land is a reanalysis dataset providing a consistent view of the evolution of land variables over several decades at an enhanced resolution compared to ERA5. ERA5-Land has been produced by replayi...
doi.org
November 6, 2026 at 9:59 PM
Yes, these station-based datasets do not resolve microclimates very well, but they can be found in datasets such as doi.org/10.24381/cds...
🔴 ⚠️ ♨️ The latest #Copernicus ERA5 data show an intensifying #ElNiño on October 2026. The Niño3.4 region had an average anomaly of +3.9°C, with a max of+5.5°C.Even worse consequences along the coasts of Perù,with the highest anomaly almost at +8°C. #ClimateEmergency #COP31
November 8, 2026 at 3:42 AM
🔴 ⚠️ ♨️ The latest #Copernicus ERA5 data show an intensifying #ElNiño on October 2026. The Niño3.4 region had an average anomaly of +3.9°C, with a max of+5.5°C.Even worse consequences along the coasts of Perù,with the highest anomaly almost at +8°C. #ClimateEmergency #COP31
Zeke Hausfather: October 2026 was the warmest October on record in Copernicus' ERA5 dataset, coming in at 1.75ºC above preindustrial levels.
November 3, 2026 at 3:40 AM
Zeke Hausfather: October 2026 was the warmest October on record in Copernicus' ERA5 dataset, coming in at 1.75ºC above preindustrial levels.
Ein guter Artikel von @cleanthinking.wsocial.eu zur KI in der Wettervorhersage, inklusive ihrer Stärken und Schwächen.
www.cleanthinking.de/ki-wettervor...
www.cleanthinking.de/ki-wettervor...
KI-Wettervorhersage: AIFS, AICON und ihre Grenzen
KI-Wettervorhersage erklärt: Wie AIFS, AICON und GraphCast rechnen, warum sie ERA5 brauchen und wo sie an Rekorden scheitern.
www.cleanthinking.de
November 8, 2026 at 3:50 PM
Ein guter Artikel von @cleanthinking.wsocial.eu zur KI in der Wettervorhersage, inklusive ihrer Stärken und Schwächen.
www.cleanthinking.de/ki-wettervor...
www.cleanthinking.de/ki-wettervor...
In 2015, the projected date for reaching 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels was 2042, based on ERA5 data. Today, our C3S global temperature-trend-monitor anticipates the threshold breach within this decade.
Read the article: climate.copernicus.eu/how-fast-wor...
@ecmwf.int
#CopernicusClimate
Read the article: climate.copernicus.eu/how-fast-wor...
@ecmwf.int
#CopernicusClimate
November 9, 2026 at 2:32 PM
In 2015, the projected date for reaching 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels was 2042, based on ERA5 data. Today, our C3S global temperature-trend-monitor anticipates the threshold breach within this decade.
Read the article: climate.copernicus.eu/how-fast-wor...
@ecmwf.int
#CopernicusClimate
Read the article: climate.copernicus.eu/how-fast-wor...
@ecmwf.int
#CopernicusClimate
🚨 Last month was the hottest October on record for our planet.
This was about 1.75°C warmer than a pre-industrial (1850-1900) average (wow!). The last 12 months have been about 1.51°C above that same baseline.
Summary from @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social at climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-...
This was about 1.75°C warmer than a pre-industrial (1850-1900) average (wow!). The last 12 months have been about 1.51°C above that same baseline.
Summary from @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social at climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-...
November 6, 2026 at 12:44 PM
🚨 Last month was the hottest October on record for our planet.
This was about 1.75°C warmer than a pre-industrial (1850-1900) average (wow!). The last 12 months have been about 1.51°C above that same baseline.
Summary from @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social at climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-...
This was about 1.75°C warmer than a pre-industrial (1850-1900) average (wow!). The last 12 months have been about 1.51°C above that same baseline.
Summary from @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social at climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-...
Die globale Tagesmitteltemperatur hat am 3. November 2026 die 2-K-Marke gegenüber dem vorindustriellen Mittel (1850–1900) überschritten, erst zum sechsten Mal im seit 1940 laufenden #ERA5-Datensatz. Bei klar steigender Tendenz und sich verstärkendem El Niño dürften neue #Tagesrekorde folgen!
November 5, 2026 at 8:47 AM
Die globale Tagesmitteltemperatur hat am 3. November 2026 die 2-K-Marke gegenüber dem vorindustriellen Mittel (1850–1900) überschritten, erst zum sechsten Mal im seit 1940 laufenden #ERA5-Datensatz. Bei klar steigender Tendenz und sich verstärkendem El Niño dürften neue #Tagesrekorde folgen!
Laut ERA5 Daten (48 M running mean) im Oktober: 1,501°C
November 6, 2026 at 9:15 PM
Laut ERA5 Daten (48 M running mean) im Oktober: 1,501°C
Hottest October ever recorded: 1.75°C above pre-industrial in Copernicus ERA5, beating October 2023. And the peak is still coming. El Niño is on track for a record December peak, and its heat lands in the atmosphere months later, so 2027 has a 95% chance of setting a new annual record. 🌡️
November 5, 2026 at 8:57 PM
Hottest October ever recorded: 1.75°C above pre-industrial in Copernicus ERA5, beating October 2023. And the peak is still coming. El Niño is on track for a record December peak, and its heat lands in the atmosphere months later, so 2027 has a 95% chance of setting a new annual record. 🌡️
Copernicus: Warmest October on record with 2026 virtually certain to exceed 1.5°C climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-w...
Copernicus: Warmest October on record with 2026 virtually certain to exceed 1.5°C
2026 is now virtually certain to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, becoming the second calendar year to do so after 2024, according to a statistical prediction based on ERA5 data up to October...
climate.copernicus.eu
November 8, 2026 at 7:35 AM
Copernicus: Warmest October on record with 2026 virtually certain to exceed 1.5°C climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-w...
🔴 #CLIMA × #OZEAN – Rekordwarmer Oktober, extreme #ENSO-Messung
#Copernicus/ERA5 bestätigt:
* Oktober 2026 war mit 15,35 °C globalem Mittel der wärmste Oktober der Messreihe: +1,75 °C gegenüber 1850–1900.
* Das nichtpolare Meeresoberflächenmittel erreichte 20,95 °C, ebenfalls Oktoberrekord.
#Copernicus/ERA5 bestätigt:
* Oktober 2026 war mit 15,35 °C globalem Mittel der wärmste Oktober der Messreihe: +1,75 °C gegenüber 1850–1900.
* Das nichtpolare Meeresoberflächenmittel erreichte 20,95 °C, ebenfalls Oktoberrekord.
Copernicus: Warmest October on record with 2026 virtually certain to exceed 1.5°C
2026 is now virtually certain to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, becoming the second calendar year to do so after 2024, according to a statistical prediction based on ERA5 data up to October...
climate.copernicus.eu
November 6, 2026 at 11:24 PM
🔴 #CLIMA × #OZEAN – Rekordwarmer Oktober, extreme #ENSO-Messung
#Copernicus/ERA5 bestätigt:
* Oktober 2026 war mit 15,35 °C globalem Mittel der wärmste Oktober der Messreihe: +1,75 °C gegenüber 1850–1900.
* Das nichtpolare Meeresoberflächenmittel erreichte 20,95 °C, ebenfalls Oktoberrekord.
#Copernicus/ERA5 bestätigt:
* Oktober 2026 war mit 15,35 °C globalem Mittel der wärmste Oktober der Messreihe: +1,75 °C gegenüber 1850–1900.
* Das nichtpolare Meeresoberflächenmittel erreichte 20,95 °C, ebenfalls Oktoberrekord.
Probably you already know about this, but in case you didn't.
earthdatahub.destine.eu/collections/...
earthdatahub.destine.eu/collections/...
ERA5 Zarr mirror - Earth Data Hub
ERA5 is the fifth generation ECMWF reanalysis for the global climate and weather. Data is available from 1940 onwards. we propose a selection of the original data based on the most popular datasets an...
earthdatahub.destine.eu
November 4, 2026 at 4:36 PM
Probably you already know about this, but in case you didn't.
earthdatahub.destine.eu/collections/...
earthdatahub.destine.eu/collections/...
The preliminary global mean surface temperature for November 7 was 14.619C (ERA5). That would break the daily record of 14.450C from 2023. #ClimateChange
November 9, 2026 at 4:16 AM
The preliminary global mean surface temperature for November 7 was 14.619C (ERA5). That would break the daily record of 14.450C from 2023. #ClimateChange
Based on 0.35 per decade (calculated from ERA5) and longterm warming of 1.4 in 2025 (Copernicus) it is another 15 years - aka early 2030s
November 8, 2026 at 5:29 PM
Based on 0.35 per decade (calculated from ERA5) and longterm warming of 1.4 in 2025 (Copernicus) it is another 15 years - aka early 2030s
* Die monatliche #ERA5-Anomalie in #Niño‑3.4 lag bei +3,21 °C – der höchste Wert dieser ERA5-Reihe.
* Für das Gesamtjahr prognostiziert Copernicus mit über 99 % Wahrscheinlichkeit +1,56 bis +1,61 °C. Damit wäre 2026 nach 2024 das zweite Kalenderjahr oberhalb von 1,5 °C.
* Für das Gesamtjahr prognostiziert Copernicus mit über 99 % Wahrscheinlichkeit +1,56 bis +1,61 °C. Damit wäre 2026 nach 2024 das zweite Kalenderjahr oberhalb von 1,5 °C.
Climate Bulletins
climate.copernicus.eu
November 6, 2026 at 11:24 PM
* Die monatliche #ERA5-Anomalie in #Niño‑3.4 lag bei +3,21 °C – der höchste Wert dieser ERA5-Reihe.
* Für das Gesamtjahr prognostiziert Copernicus mit über 99 % Wahrscheinlichkeit +1,56 bis +1,61 °C. Damit wäre 2026 nach 2024 das zweite Kalenderjahr oberhalb von 1,5 °C.
* Für das Gesamtjahr prognostiziert Copernicus mit über 99 % Wahrscheinlichkeit +1,56 bis +1,61 °C. Damit wäre 2026 nach 2024 das zweite Kalenderjahr oberhalb von 1,5 °C.
With 10 months of the year now in, 2026 as a whole is on track to see the second warmest year on record in ERA5. And with a record-setting El Nino we are very likely to see a record warm 2027:
November 2, 2026 at 7:52 PM
With 10 months of the year now in, 2026 as a whole is on track to see the second warmest year on record in ERA5. And with a record-setting El Nino we are very likely to see a record warm 2027:
Ozeane warm wie nie: Meerestemp. 7,12 Standardabw. über Mittel, Lufttemp. egalisierte mit +2,04°C Allzeitrekord. El Niño heizt, Bolivien im Notstand. Im Allgäu liefern Laster Trinkwasser, k. Grundwasserneubildung.
Alles bei gerade 1,5°C. 2026 wird zweitwärmstes Jahr, 2027 mit ~1,8°C wohl wärmstes.
Alles bei gerade 1,5°C. 2026 wird zweitwärmstes Jahr, 2027 mit ~1,8°C wohl wärmstes.
November 7, 2026 at 8:12 AM
Ozeane warm wie nie: Meerestemp. 7,12 Standardabw. über Mittel, Lufttemp. egalisierte mit +2,04°C Allzeitrekord. El Niño heizt, Bolivien im Notstand. Im Allgäu liefern Laster Trinkwasser, k. Grundwasserneubildung.
Alles bei gerade 1,5°C. 2026 wird zweitwärmstes Jahr, 2027 mit ~1,8°C wohl wärmstes.
Alles bei gerade 1,5°C. 2026 wird zweitwärmstes Jahr, 2027 mit ~1,8°C wohl wärmstes.
The preliminary global mean surface temperature for November 6 was 14.706C (ERA5). That would break the daily record of 14.502C that was set in 2024. #ClimateChange
November 8, 2026 at 4:25 AM
The preliminary global mean surface temperature for November 6 was 14.706C (ERA5). That would break the daily record of 14.502C that was set in 2024. #ClimateChange