Bessent on Gary Cohn saying we're still weeks away from tariff-related shortages and price increases: "I can't tell you what various retailers have done in terms of stockpiling, substitutions, and elasticities."
April 28, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Bessent on Gary Cohn saying we're still weeks away from tariff-related shortages and price increases: "I can't tell you what various retailers have done in terms of stockpiling, substitutions, and elasticities."
i think people may not have fully internalized what the process of determining tariff incidence by finding elasticities looks like
April 26, 2025 at 7:31 PM
i think people may not have fully internalized what the process of determining tariff incidence by finding elasticities looks like
1. Undergrad exam question: Under what constellation of elasticities is this true? (It's a knife edge case.)
2. Question for the Secretary: What if you tariff all the goods? (This is not hypothetical.)
2. Question for the Secretary: What if you tariff all the goods? (This is not hypothetical.)
".. During a radio interview Saturday .., Bessent said 'tariffs can’t be inflationary because if the price of one thing goes up -- unless you give people more money -- then they have less money to spend on the other thing, so there is no inflation.'"
@cnn.com
www.cnn.com/2024/11/25/b...
@cnn.com
www.cnn.com/2024/11/25/b...
‘Huge relief.’ CEOs exhale after Trump taps Scott Bessent to lead Treasury | CNN Business
Hedge fund executive Scott Bessent survived an internal squabble over the role of Treasury secretary, a key position that will face almost immediate deadlines and pressures.
www.cnn.com
April 26, 2025 at 8:33 PM
1. Undergrad exam question: Under what constellation of elasticities is this true? (It's a knife edge case.)
2. Question for the Secretary: What if you tariff all the goods? (This is not hypothetical.)
2. Question for the Secretary: What if you tariff all the goods? (This is not hypothetical.)
I am beginning to see "tax hikes to shore up social security could cost jobs" stories/commentary popping up. It's not yet a counter narratives. But it means folks are pulling out and dusting off their preferred substitution elasticities again.
October 1, 2026 at 2:48 PM
I am beginning to see "tax hikes to shore up social security could cost jobs" stories/commentary popping up. It's not yet a counter narratives. But it means folks are pulling out and dusting off their preferred substitution elasticities again.
By "elasticities" he means price hikes leading people to not buy stuff right lol
BESSENT SAYS NOT WORRIED ABOUT EMPTY SHELVES BESSENT SAYS WE'LL SEE ELASTICITIES, WE'LL SEE REPLACEMENTS
April 28, 2025 at 6:15 PM
By "elasticities" he means price hikes leading people to not buy stuff right lol
“elasticities”
Yo-yo pricing here we come
Yo-yo pricing here we come
April 28, 2025 at 7:26 PM
“elasticities”
Yo-yo pricing here we come
Yo-yo pricing here we come
I have one word for you, Benjamin. Elasticities.
BESSENT SAYS NOT WORRIED ABOUT EMPTY SHELVES BESSENT SAYS WE'LL SEE ELASTICITIES, WE'LL SEE REPLACEMENTS
April 28, 2025 at 8:19 PM
I have one word for you, Benjamin. Elasticities.
Price elasticities
December 24, 2024 at 6:57 AM
Price elasticities
It doesn't account for elasticities, no, but given our three biggest trading partners saw tariff rates go up today (significantly) I think that's uh, relevant? Lower imports are also *worse* than tariffed imports.
That calculated weighted average has very little to do with what would happen in the real world, though?
April 9, 2025 at 8:10 PM
It doesn't account for elasticities, no, but given our three biggest trading partners saw tariff rates go up today (significantly) I think that's uh, relevant? Lower imports are also *worse* than tariffed imports.
BESSENT SAYS NOT WORRIED ABOUT EMPTY SHELVES BESSENT SAYS WE'LL SEE ELASTICITIES, WE'LL SEE REPLACEMENTS
April 28, 2025 at 12:23 PM
BESSENT SAYS NOT WORRIED ABOUT EMPTY SHELVES BESSENT SAYS WE'LL SEE ELASTICITIES, WE'LL SEE REPLACEMENTS
Capital for labor? Leisure for work? You got employers and employees and extensive and intensive margins to play with. And there is such a useful range of estimated elasticities. Why not pick the ones that suggest ruin?
October 1, 2026 at 2:49 PM
Capital for labor? Leisure for work? You got employers and employees and extensive and intensive margins to play with. And there is such a useful range of estimated elasticities. Why not pick the ones that suggest ruin?
"I find that zoning is the primary determinant of local floorspace supply elasticities and substantially constrains the city's growth, particularly in high-priced, low-density neighborhoods." papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
August 22, 2025 at 11:45 PM
"I find that zoning is the primary determinant of local floorspace supply elasticities and substantially constrains the city's growth, particularly in high-priced, low-density neighborhoods." papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
These findings provide valuable insights for energy policymakers addressing urban energy challenges in developing countries.
Read the full paper:-
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Read the full paper:-
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Price elasticities of residential electricity demand: Estimates from household panel data in Bangladesh
We collect a household level panel dataset to estimate the price elasticities of electricity demand for different types of urban households in Banglad…
www.sciencedirect.com
October 6, 2025 at 5:24 AM
These findings provide valuable insights for energy policymakers addressing urban energy challenges in developing countries.
Read the full paper:-
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Read the full paper:-
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Another paper that does not recognize supply elasticities are endogenous to housing constraint and thus completely mispecifies the actual empirical relationship between prices and supply
City officials and policy wonks have mostly sought to respond to rising rents by building new housing, arguing that increased supply is the only way to bring down rental costs.
But that idea, according to a major new housing study, is dead wrong.
hellgatenyc.com/take-that-ez...
But that idea, according to a major new housing study, is dead wrong.
hellgatenyc.com/take-that-ez...
'No Amount of Housing We Build Is Going to Make Prices Drop'
A major new housing study is challenging the idea behind the "abundance agenda."
hellgatenyc.com
March 17, 2026 at 1:46 AM
Another paper that does not recognize supply elasticities are endogenous to housing constraint and thus completely mispecifies the actual empirical relationship between prices and supply
I am always fighting about elasticities.
September 15, 2026 at 2:19 PM
I am always fighting about elasticities.
Pencils to a 30% tariff rate (though of course there would be declines in imports so to get revenue this high you would actually need to go even higher; I’m not even going to begin at hazarding a guess on the elasticities there but they’re not nothing).
Senator Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) tells reporters Trump is talking of tariff revenue of as much as $1 trillion — Johnson says he’s trying to talk Trump out of it but doesn’t know what he’ll decide
January 20, 2025 at 1:20 AM
Pencils to a 30% tariff rate (though of course there would be declines in imports so to get revenue this high you would actually need to go even higher; I’m not even going to begin at hazarding a guess on the elasticities there but they’re not nothing).
One of the biggest areas where I think economic intuition generally leads people astray is it’s very easy to assume high elasticities (“if you ban X, people will just…”) and as a broad simplification empirical elasticities are never that high. Everything subject to lots of frictions
November 17, 2024 at 7:53 PM
One of the biggest areas where I think economic intuition generally leads people astray is it’s very easy to assume high elasticities (“if you ban X, people will just…”) and as a broad simplification empirical elasticities are never that high. Everything subject to lots of frictions
you could actually kind of stop there, in part because storper et al misuse the papers they cite to get low elasticities, and in part because their hypotheticals push these elasticities way too far, but let's ignore that and continue.
bsky.app/profile/did:...
bsky.app/profile/did:...
in their simulation, most of the price channel is because of the demand elasticity. want housing to work well? assume inelastic demand; want housing to work badly? assume super elastic demand.
they pull the bad number from mense 2025, but look at the text: it's elasticity of *new supply* to prices
they pull the bad number from mense 2025, but look at the text: it's elasticity of *new supply* to prices
March 17, 2026 at 2:16 AM
you could actually kind of stop there, in part because storper et al misuse the papers they cite to get low elasticities, and in part because their hypotheticals push these elasticities way too far, but let's ignore that and continue.
bsky.app/profile/did:...
bsky.app/profile/did:...
He’s plainly wrong that this is the extent of how it’s going to go, but more importantly, the translation of “we’ll see elasticities” is “prices will go up, sales will go down”
BESSENT SAYS NOT WORRIED ABOUT EMPTY SHELVES BESSENT SAYS WE'LL SEE ELASTICITIES, WE'LL SEE REPLACEMENTS
April 28, 2025 at 4:55 PM
He’s plainly wrong that this is the extent of how it’s going to go, but more importantly, the translation of “we’ll see elasticities” is “prices will go up, sales will go down”
It feels like a form of Gell Mann amnesia that I believe economists when they estimate marginal elasticities, then find out that the people those elasticities model don't understand marginal taxes at all.
March 15, 2025 at 10:00 PM
It feels like a form of Gell Mann amnesia that I believe economists when they estimate marginal elasticities, then find out that the people those elasticities model don't understand marginal taxes at all.
FOI : MMRF elasticities - energy types - Released on 28 June 2012
MMRF elasticities - energy types
FOI : MMRF elasticities - energy types - Released on 28 June 2012
treasury.gov.au
October 6, 2026 at 5:18 PM
FOI : MMRF elasticities - energy types - Released on 28 June 2012
FOI : MMRF elasticities - energy types - Released on 28 June 2012
MMRF elasticities - energy types
FOI : MMRF elasticities - energy types - Released on 28 June 2012
treasury.gov.au
October 6, 2026 at 5:18 AM
FOI : MMRF elasticities - energy types - Released on 28 June 2012
people who take absolutist stances on AI either creating mass unemployment or being a nothing-burger have never taken a labor economics class and it shows
technological advancements can either increase or decrease employment it is entirely contingent on other elasticities
technological advancements can either increase or decrease employment it is entirely contingent on other elasticities
tech.
“AI is not only not replacing (radiologists), but it’s actually increasing the amount of work they can do and increasing demand for their services,” www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/art... @ctvnews-mirror.bsky.social
“AI is not only not replacing (radiologists), but it’s actually increasing the amount of work they can do and increasing demand for their services,” www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/art... @ctvnews-mirror.bsky.social
This job has become the ultimate case study for why AI won’t replace human workers
Want to understand how artificial intelligence could change your job? Look to radiology as a clue. Radiology has become a recent talking point in the AI race. It was mentioned multiple times last mont...
www.ctvnews.ca
February 9, 2026 at 4:58 PM
people who take absolutist stances on AI either creating mass unemployment or being a nothing-burger have never taken a labor economics class and it shows
technological advancements can either increase or decrease employment it is entirely contingent on other elasticities
technological advancements can either increase or decrease employment it is entirely contingent on other elasticities
Correct. Even assuming a crash decarbonization scenario where you halt all ICE vehicle sales tomorrow, etc, you can’t drop petroleum consumption fast enough to match the drop in supply, at least in the short term. Elasticities are such that a 20% drop in supply might as well be 100%.
March 14, 2026 at 3:39 PM
Correct. Even assuming a crash decarbonization scenario where you halt all ICE vehicle sales tomorrow, etc, you can’t drop petroleum consumption fast enough to match the drop in supply, at least in the short term. Elasticities are such that a 20% drop in supply might as well be 100%.