Latest polling predictions from ElectoralCalculus. Link in comment. Reform with largest number of seats at 192. Westminster split 3ways. SNP back at 43 MPs. Surely to god, we then walk out of Commons and declare independence.
February 28, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Latest polling predictions from ElectoralCalculus. Link in comment. Reform with largest number of seats at 192. Westminster split 3ways. SNP back at 43 MPs. Surely to god, we then walk out of Commons and declare independence.
#ElectoralCalculus is out!
And HOLY FUCK they believe Greens will end up LOSING seats ahahahahahahahaha. Down from five to two. I'd been predicting six, but clearly that's 66% more generous than I should have been.
And HOLY FUCK they believe Greens will end up LOSING seats ahahahahahahahaha. Down from five to two. I'd been predicting six, but clearly that's 66% more generous than I should have been.
October 7, 2026 at 10:39 AM
#ElectoralCalculus is out!
And HOLY FUCK they believe Greens will end up LOSING seats ahahahahahahahaha. Down from five to two. I'd been predicting six, but clearly that's 66% more generous than I should have been.
And HOLY FUCK they believe Greens will end up LOSING seats ahahahahahahahaha. Down from five to two. I'd been predicting six, but clearly that's 66% more generous than I should have been.
For fun, this is what you get when you input the party percentage changes from the G&D by-election to the electoralcalculus election prediction generator ...
🟢 Grn: 287
➡️ Ref: 262
🟠 Lib: 43
🟡 SNP: 36
⏺️ PC: 4
🔴 Lab: 0
🔵 Con: 0
(Northern Ireland not shown, but they get their usual 18 seats)
🟢 Grn: 287
➡️ Ref: 262
🟠 Lib: 43
🟡 SNP: 36
⏺️ PC: 4
🔴 Lab: 0
🔵 Con: 0
(Northern Ireland not shown, but they get their usual 18 seats)
February 27, 2026 at 8:32 AM
For fun, this is what you get when you input the party percentage changes from the G&D by-election to the electoralcalculus election prediction generator ...
🟢 Grn: 287
➡️ Ref: 262
🟠 Lib: 43
🟡 SNP: 36
⏺️ PC: 4
🔴 Lab: 0
🔵 Con: 0
(Northern Ireland not shown, but they get their usual 18 seats)
🟢 Grn: 287
➡️ Ref: 262
🟠 Lib: 43
🟡 SNP: 36
⏺️ PC: 4
🔴 Lab: 0
🔵 Con: 0
(Northern Ireland not shown, but they get their usual 18 seats)
If tactical voting is factored in the ElectoralCalculus system says that Reform will be 28 short of a majority and would almost certainly be forced to create a coalition with the Conservatives.
March 12, 2026 at 3:25 PM
If tactical voting is factored in the ElectoralCalculus system says that Reform will be 28 short of a majority and would almost certainly be forced to create a coalition with the Conservatives.
The latest survation poll seems to have broken electoralcalculus as everyone rushes to type in the percentages.
July 3, 2024 at 9:14 AM
The latest survation poll seems to have broken electoralcalculus as everyone rushes to type in the percentages.
Electoralcalculus .co.uk har en optional tactical voting option. Det er oppe i luften om den bliver relevant om 3 år 🤷♂️
February 17, 2026 at 11:41 AM
Electoralcalculus .co.uk har en optional tactical voting option. Det er oppe i luften om den bliver relevant om 3 år 🤷♂️
Congratulations to the fabulous #HannahSpencer on her deserved win for the #GreenPaty in #GortonAndDenton!💚🥳
And a "moment's silence" for the cr*p #InfluencePollsters:
#ElectoralCalculus,#YouGov,#Opinium,#FindOutNow..and the rest of the"political scammers"-who were SO WRONG!
But #Omnisis was RIGHT!
And a "moment's silence" for the cr*p #InfluencePollsters:
#ElectoralCalculus,#YouGov,#Opinium,#FindOutNow..and the rest of the"political scammers"-who were SO WRONG!
But #Omnisis was RIGHT!
February 27, 2026 at 12:57 PM
Congratulations to the fabulous #HannahSpencer on her deserved win for the #GreenPaty in #GortonAndDenton!💚🥳
And a "moment's silence" for the cr*p #InfluencePollsters:
#ElectoralCalculus,#YouGov,#Opinium,#FindOutNow..and the rest of the"political scammers"-who were SO WRONG!
But #Omnisis was RIGHT!
And a "moment's silence" for the cr*p #InfluencePollsters:
#ElectoralCalculus,#YouGov,#Opinium,#FindOutNow..and the rest of the"political scammers"-who were SO WRONG!
But #Omnisis was RIGHT!
ElectoralCalculus currently have the Greens winning Tottenham too.
March 12, 2026 at 9:32 AM
ElectoralCalculus currently have the Greens winning Tottenham too.
Slightly surprised my feed isn't flooded with references to this... new ElectoralCalculus/PLMR MRP which has Labour coming *6th* (after LibDems, Greens and SNP).
I don't think anyone's really saying this is what will happen, but it's still mindblowing.
www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vip...
I don't think anyone's really saying this is what will happen, but it's still mindblowing.
www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vip...
MRP Poll January 2026
www.electoralcalculus.co.uk
January 13, 2026 at 12:06 PM
Slightly surprised my feed isn't flooded with references to this... new ElectoralCalculus/PLMR MRP which has Labour coming *6th* (after LibDems, Greens and SNP).
I don't think anyone's really saying this is what will happen, but it's still mindblowing.
www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vip...
I don't think anyone's really saying this is what will happen, but it's still mindblowing.
www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vip...
Are those MRPs stale?
The Economist one was polled 30th May - 21st June.
ElectoralCalculus 14-24th June
Reform have gone down a bit over last couple of days, as Farage has come out with his pro-Putin stuff.
The Economist one was polled 30th May - 21st June.
ElectoralCalculus 14-24th June
Reform have gone down a bit over last couple of days, as Farage has come out with his pro-Putin stuff.
June 26, 2024 at 4:44 PM
Are those MRPs stale?
The Economist one was polled 30th May - 21st June.
ElectoralCalculus 14-24th June
Reform have gone down a bit over last couple of days, as Farage has come out with his pro-Putin stuff.
The Economist one was polled 30th May - 21st June.
ElectoralCalculus 14-24th June
Reform have gone down a bit over last couple of days, as Farage has come out with his pro-Putin stuff.
This current predicition from the ElectoralCalculus website is more in line with what I expected here in the new Chippenham constituency, with LibDems the best choice for tactical voting.
They're certainly trying hard. Had yet another leaflet arrive while I was typing this!
They're certainly trying hard. Had yet another leaflet arrive while I was typing this!
June 2, 2024 at 9:04 AM
This current predicition from the ElectoralCalculus website is more in line with what I expected here in the new Chippenham constituency, with LibDems the best choice for tactical voting.
They're certainly trying hard. Had yet another leaflet arrive while I was typing this!
They're certainly trying hard. Had yet another leaflet arrive while I was typing this!
I remember everyone plugging the numbers after each new poll into Flavible or ElectoralCalculus to see the maps, the seats counts just jumping in every direction with each fraction of a percent, that was so much fun for a couple weeks
April 8, 2025 at 6:46 PM
I remember everyone plugging the numbers after each new poll into Flavible or ElectoralCalculus to see the maps, the seats counts just jumping in every direction with each fraction of a percent, that was so much fun for a couple weeks
And the Gorton & Denton results are in*:
🔴 Labour HOLD
Full Results:
🔴 Labour - 9364 (100%)
🔵 Reform - 0 (0%)
🟢 Green - 0 (0%)
🔵 Conservative - 0 (0%)
🟠 Lib Dem - 0 (0%)
⚪ Other - 0 (0%)
(*Using the patented Tactical Choice analytical method & excluding any votes not cast for Labour)
🔴 Labour HOLD
Full Results:
🔴 Labour - 9364 (100%)
🔵 Reform - 0 (0%)
🟢 Green - 0 (0%)
🔵 Conservative - 0 (0%)
🟠 Lib Dem - 0 (0%)
⚪ Other - 0 (0%)
(*Using the patented Tactical Choice analytical method & excluding any votes not cast for Labour)
February 27, 2026 at 5:33 PM
‘Somerset North East and Hanham, Labour gain from Jacob Rees-Mogg’.
Oh my good Lord, tell me who or what I have to meet at a crossroads and what I have to sell them to make that happen.
Oh my good Lord, tell me who or what I have to meet at a crossroads and what I have to sell them to make that happen.
March 17, 2024 at 11:04 PM
‘Somerset North East and Hanham, Labour gain from Jacob Rees-Mogg’.
Oh my good Lord, tell me who or what I have to meet at a crossroads and what I have to sell them to make that happen.
Oh my good Lord, tell me who or what I have to meet at a crossroads and what I have to sell them to make that happen.
So, now that Your Party has an Electoral Commission ID, and is in the new ElectoralCalculus/PLMR MRP, I should add it to election2029.uk
It's unclear what colour I should use though. Maybe it'll become more obvious after their conference.
It's unclear what colour I should use though. Maybe it'll become more obvious after their conference.
UK Election 2029
election2029.uk
October 15, 2025 at 1:06 PM
So, now that Your Party has an Electoral Commission ID, and is in the new ElectoralCalculus/PLMR MRP, I should add it to election2029.uk
It's unclear what colour I should use though. Maybe it'll become more obvious after their conference.
It's unclear what colour I should use though. Maybe it'll become more obvious after their conference.
For people asking, here's a screenshot of the electoralcalculus projection (it wouldn't load a more detailed breakdown for me)
May 22, 2024 at 5:17 PM
For people asking, here's a screenshot of the electoralcalculus projection (it wouldn't load a more detailed breakdown for me)
132 seats from 23.8% of the vote [the currecnt ElectoralCalculus prediction] means FPTP is still helping Reform win more seats than it would under a proportional system, because it has the same geographical concentration enjoyed by the SNP
September 21, 2026 at 5:47 PM
132 seats from 23.8% of the vote [the currecnt ElectoralCalculus prediction] means FPTP is still helping Reform win more seats than it would under a proportional system, because it has the same geographical concentration enjoyed by the SNP
#ElectoralCalculus for September is out!
Oh look! Reform continue to slip back, the Tories continue to be a car without wheels, and Greens, who are in their words 'the only party who can stop Reform', are predicted to have a whopping SIX MPs after the next election.
Laughably out of touch.
Oh look! Reform continue to slip back, the Tories continue to be a car without wheels, and Greens, who are in their words 'the only party who can stop Reform', are predicted to have a whopping SIX MPs after the next election.
Laughably out of touch.
September 2, 2026 at 11:43 AM
#ElectoralCalculus for September is out!
Oh look! Reform continue to slip back, the Tories continue to be a car without wheels, and Greens, who are in their words 'the only party who can stop Reform', are predicted to have a whopping SIX MPs after the next election.
Laughably out of touch.
Oh look! Reform continue to slip back, the Tories continue to be a car without wheels, and Greens, who are in their words 'the only party who can stop Reform', are predicted to have a whopping SIX MPs after the next election.
Laughably out of touch.
Would lead to a hung parliament with Labour needing to ally with the LibDems.
August 11, 2026 at 8:55 AM
Would lead to a hung parliament with Labour needing to ally with the LibDems.
I have been looking at predictions and projections for the constituency that I live in. Seems there is some split in thinking, I really don't believe Labour will win here as in the last 139 years we have had 6 years with a Liberal MP and the rest was all Tory. Still going with the Greens.
June 2, 2024 at 8:18 PM
I have been looking at predictions and projections for the constituency that I live in. Seems there is some split in thinking, I really don't believe Labour will win here as in the last 139 years we have had 6 years with a Liberal MP and the rest was all Tory. Still going with the Greens.
Just seen the ElectoralCalculus predictions based on fieldwork 1-8 December 2025.
Reform on 398 seats without tactical voting and 335 with tactical voting so easy to see why Reform now think FPTP is the way to go.
Labour pretty much wiped out with a predicted (at best) 41 seats...
Reform on 398 seats without tactical voting and 335 with tactical voting so easy to see why Reform now think FPTP is the way to go.
Labour pretty much wiped out with a predicted (at best) 41 seats...
January 16, 2026 at 10:20 AM
Just seen the ElectoralCalculus predictions based on fieldwork 1-8 December 2025.
Reform on 398 seats without tactical voting and 335 with tactical voting so easy to see why Reform now think FPTP is the way to go.
Labour pretty much wiped out with a predicted (at best) 41 seats...
Reform on 398 seats without tactical voting and 335 with tactical voting so easy to see why Reform now think FPTP is the way to go.
Labour pretty much wiped out with a predicted (at best) 41 seats...
#ElectoralCalculus update day!
Current polling Reform continues to slip back; now predicted to fall 78 seats short of a majority.
Greens, who believe they are the genuine challenger, still limping along in 4th, just like I said.
Current polling Reform continues to slip back; now predicted to fall 78 seats short of a majority.
Greens, who believe they are the genuine challenger, still limping along in 4th, just like I said.
May 1, 2026 at 8:12 AM
#ElectoralCalculus update day!
Current polling Reform continues to slip back; now predicted to fall 78 seats short of a majority.
Greens, who believe they are the genuine challenger, still limping along in 4th, just like I said.
Current polling Reform continues to slip back; now predicted to fall 78 seats short of a majority.
Greens, who believe they are the genuine challenger, still limping along in 4th, just like I said.