The graph is from Sarah Bianchi, Matt Aks and Karlin Gatton at EvercoreISI.
And my piece: www.nytimes.com/2025/03/31/o...
And my piece: www.nytimes.com/2025/03/31/o...
April 3, 2025 at 12:14 AM
The graph is from Sarah Bianchi, Matt Aks and Karlin Gatton at EvercoreISI.
And my piece: www.nytimes.com/2025/03/31/o...
And my piece: www.nytimes.com/2025/03/31/o...
- Chris McNally, an analyst at investment bank #EvercoreISI, wrote last week, in a note to clients, after visiting the latest Shanghai show, that “investors have yet to grasp just how far ahead China may be” -
🚨
#alwaysbecharging
🚨
#alwaysbecharging
May 20, 2025 at 8:56 PM
- Chris McNally, an analyst at investment bank #EvercoreISI, wrote last week, in a note to clients, after visiting the latest Shanghai show, that “investors have yet to grasp just how far ahead China may be” -
🚨
#alwaysbecharging
🚨
#alwaysbecharging
Matthew Aks, EvercoreISI: Trump’s willingness to even make the $5,000 check proposal, along with other more realistic spending proposals from both sides, underscore that recent market signals have yet to change the conversation on deficits in Washington.
September 11, 2026 at 10:53 AM
Matthew Aks, EvercoreISI: Trump’s willingness to even make the $5,000 check proposal, along with other more realistic spending proposals from both sides, underscore that recent market signals have yet to change the conversation on deficits in Washington.
US small business optimism down, capex plans down, uncertainty up, prices up. (Tariffs again)
(EvercoreISI charts)
(EvercoreISI charts)
March 11, 2025 at 9:41 PM
US small business optimism down, capex plans down, uncertainty up, prices up. (Tariffs again)
(EvercoreISI charts)
(EvercoreISI charts)
US job openings down in Dec, quits pretty stable.
(EvercoreISI chart)
(EvercoreISI chart)
February 4, 2025 at 10:12 PM
US job openings down in Dec, quits pretty stable.
(EvercoreISI chart)
(EvercoreISI chart)
US Aug payrolls much > exp +162k, prior 2 mths revised +55k, 3 mth avg +71k.
Unemp rose from 4.09% to 4.14% but this was due to higher participation.
This marginally increases case for a Sept hike, but CPI will be key. Wages grth remains benign +0.2%m/+3.1%y
(EvercoreISI chart)
Unemp rose from 4.09% to 4.14% but this was due to higher participation.
This marginally increases case for a Sept hike, but CPI will be key. Wages grth remains benign +0.2%m/+3.1%y
(EvercoreISI chart)
September 4, 2026 at 10:40 PM
US Aug payrolls much > exp +162k, prior 2 mths revised +55k, 3 mth avg +71k.
Unemp rose from 4.09% to 4.14% but this was due to higher participation.
This marginally increases case for a Sept hike, but CPI will be key. Wages grth remains benign +0.2%m/+3.1%y
(EvercoreISI chart)
Unemp rose from 4.09% to 4.14% but this was due to higher participation.
This marginally increases case for a Sept hike, but CPI will be key. Wages grth remains benign +0.2%m/+3.1%y
(EvercoreISI chart)
US NFIB small business optimism down a bit in Jan but remaining high.
(EvercoreISI chart)
(EvercoreISI chart)
February 11, 2025 at 10:08 PM
US NFIB small business optimism down a bit in Jan but remaining high.
(EvercoreISI chart)
(EvercoreISI chart)
" #EvercoreISI puts the weighted-average #Tariffs rate at 29%.
That compares with about 20% after the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930."
Chris Anstey
At just 20% sparked a world trade war,
the #GreatDepression and into the dirty 30s.
#TrumpTarrifs #Tradewar #EconomicWarfare #Trump
That compares with about 20% after the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930."
Chris Anstey
At just 20% sparked a world trade war,
the #GreatDepression and into the dirty 30s.
#TrumpTarrifs #Tradewar #EconomicWarfare #Trump
April 3, 2025 at 1:20 AM
" #EvercoreISI puts the weighted-average #Tariffs rate at 29%.
That compares with about 20% after the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930."
Chris Anstey
At just 20% sparked a world trade war,
the #GreatDepression and into the dirty 30s.
#TrumpTarrifs #Tradewar #EconomicWarfare #Trump
That compares with about 20% after the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930."
Chris Anstey
At just 20% sparked a world trade war,
the #GreatDepression and into the dirty 30s.
#TrumpTarrifs #Tradewar #EconomicWarfare #Trump
" #EvercoreISI puts the weighted-average #Tariffs rate at 29%.
That compares with about 20% after teh Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930,"
Chris Anstey
As usual, he is NOT putting on Reciprocal Tariffs.
THESE ARE #TRUMPTARIFFS!
..and WHAT happened in 1930?
#GreatDepression2.0
#MarketCrash
That compares with about 20% after teh Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930,"
Chris Anstey
As usual, he is NOT putting on Reciprocal Tariffs.
THESE ARE #TRUMPTARIFFS!
..and WHAT happened in 1930?
#GreatDepression2.0
#MarketCrash
April 3, 2025 at 12:58 AM
" #EvercoreISI puts the weighted-average #Tariffs rate at 29%.
That compares with about 20% after teh Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930,"
Chris Anstey
As usual, he is NOT putting on Reciprocal Tariffs.
THESE ARE #TRUMPTARIFFS!
..and WHAT happened in 1930?
#GreatDepression2.0
#MarketCrash
That compares with about 20% after teh Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930,"
Chris Anstey
As usual, he is NOT putting on Reciprocal Tariffs.
THESE ARE #TRUMPTARIFFS!
..and WHAT happened in 1930?
#GreatDepression2.0
#MarketCrash
More poor US data:
Feb personal inc > exp but spending < exp (real consumption running +0.2% rate in Q1) & core PCE inflation +0.37%mom/2.8%yoy, > exp
Uni Mich consumer confidence down & 1 yr & 5-10 yr infl expectations rose to 5% and 4.1%
Not good for Fed
EvercoreISI charts
Feb personal inc > exp but spending < exp (real consumption running +0.2% rate in Q1) & core PCE inflation +0.37%mom/2.8%yoy, > exp
Uni Mich consumer confidence down & 1 yr & 5-10 yr infl expectations rose to 5% and 4.1%
Not good for Fed
EvercoreISI charts
March 28, 2025 at 10:47 PM
More poor US data:
Feb personal inc > exp but spending < exp (real consumption running +0.2% rate in Q1) & core PCE inflation +0.37%mom/2.8%yoy, > exp
Uni Mich consumer confidence down & 1 yr & 5-10 yr infl expectations rose to 5% and 4.1%
Not good for Fed
EvercoreISI charts
Feb personal inc > exp but spending < exp (real consumption running +0.2% rate in Q1) & core PCE inflation +0.37%mom/2.8%yoy, > exp
Uni Mich consumer confidence down & 1 yr & 5-10 yr infl expectations rose to 5% and 4.1%
Not good for Fed
EvercoreISI charts
US existing home sales -3.6% in March to a nine month low with higher mortgage rates impacting along with weaker consumer confidence.
(EvercoreISI chart)
(EvercoreISI chart)
April 13, 2026 at 11:18 PM
US existing home sales -3.6% in March to a nine month low with higher mortgage rates impacting along with weaker consumer confidence.
(EvercoreISI chart)
(EvercoreISI chart)
US initial jobless claims -2k and remaining low, continuing claims +36k.
April existing home sales -0.5%mom and remaining weak.
(EvercoreISI and Bloomberg charts)
April existing home sales -0.5%mom and remaining weak.
(EvercoreISI and Bloomberg charts)
May 22, 2025 at 11:01 PM
US initial jobless claims -2k and remaining low, continuing claims +36k.
April existing home sales -0.5%mom and remaining weak.
(EvercoreISI and Bloomberg charts)
April existing home sales -0.5%mom and remaining weak.
(EvercoreISI and Bloomberg charts)
US April pers income +0.8%mom, but spending slowed to +0.2%mom with saving rate up…consumers getting cautious.
Core PCE inflation +0.1%mom slowing to 2.5%yoy. This is good news for the Fed but given the tariff threat will remain it will wait & see mode
(EvercoreISI charts)
Core PCE inflation +0.1%mom slowing to 2.5%yoy. This is good news for the Fed but given the tariff threat will remain it will wait & see mode
(EvercoreISI charts)
May 30, 2025 at 11:19 PM
US April pers income +0.8%mom, but spending slowed to +0.2%mom with saving rate up…consumers getting cautious.
Core PCE inflation +0.1%mom slowing to 2.5%yoy. This is good news for the Fed but given the tariff threat will remain it will wait & see mode
(EvercoreISI charts)
Core PCE inflation +0.1%mom slowing to 2.5%yoy. This is good news for the Fed but given the tariff threat will remain it will wait & see mode
(EvercoreISI charts)
Messy US data
Jan personal spending -0.2%mom
This plus surge in imports pushed Atlanta Fed GDPNow to -1.5% Mar qtr GDP grth.
Jan core PCE +0.28%mom/2.6%yoy…equal lowest since 2021.
Boosts prospects for Fed rate cuts this yr…money mkt is back to nearly 3 cuts
EvercoreISI charts
Jan personal spending -0.2%mom
This plus surge in imports pushed Atlanta Fed GDPNow to -1.5% Mar qtr GDP grth.
Jan core PCE +0.28%mom/2.6%yoy…equal lowest since 2021.
Boosts prospects for Fed rate cuts this yr…money mkt is back to nearly 3 cuts
EvercoreISI charts
February 28, 2025 at 10:48 PM
Messy US data
Jan personal spending -0.2%mom
This plus surge in imports pushed Atlanta Fed GDPNow to -1.5% Mar qtr GDP grth.
Jan core PCE +0.28%mom/2.6%yoy…equal lowest since 2021.
Boosts prospects for Fed rate cuts this yr…money mkt is back to nearly 3 cuts
EvercoreISI charts
Jan personal spending -0.2%mom
This plus surge in imports pushed Atlanta Fed GDPNow to -1.5% Mar qtr GDP grth.
Jan core PCE +0.28%mom/2.6%yoy…equal lowest since 2021.
Boosts prospects for Fed rate cuts this yr…money mkt is back to nearly 3 cuts
EvercoreISI charts
US Jan PPI also stronger than expected with core +0.3%m/3.6%y, but components that feed into core PCE were softer suggesting Jan core PCE +0.29%m/2.6%y…so not so bad for Fed but will still leave it cautious for now
Initial jobless claims -7k and remaining low
EvercoreISI charts
Initial jobless claims -7k and remaining low
EvercoreISI charts
February 13, 2025 at 9:00 PM
US Jan PPI also stronger than expected with core +0.3%m/3.6%y, but components that feed into core PCE were softer suggesting Jan core PCE +0.29%m/2.6%y…so not so bad for Fed but will still leave it cautious for now
Initial jobless claims -7k and remaining low
EvercoreISI charts
Initial jobless claims -7k and remaining low
EvercoreISI charts
US Jan payrolls +143k, < exp and earlier payrolls revised down but recent payrolls revised up.
Unemp fell to 4% from 4.1%
Avg hrly earnings +0.5%m/4.1%y, > exp but could be due to a mix shift
Leans a little hawkish suggesting even less chance of a Mar Fed cut
(EvercoreISI charts)
Unemp fell to 4% from 4.1%
Avg hrly earnings +0.5%m/4.1%y, > exp but could be due to a mix shift
Leans a little hawkish suggesting even less chance of a Mar Fed cut
(EvercoreISI charts)
February 7, 2025 at 10:08 PM
US Jan payrolls +143k, < exp and earlier payrolls revised down but recent payrolls revised up.
Unemp fell to 4% from 4.1%
Avg hrly earnings +0.5%m/4.1%y, > exp but could be due to a mix shift
Leans a little hawkish suggesting even less chance of a Mar Fed cut
(EvercoreISI charts)
Unemp fell to 4% from 4.1%
Avg hrly earnings +0.5%m/4.1%y, > exp but could be due to a mix shift
Leans a little hawkish suggesting even less chance of a Mar Fed cut
(EvercoreISI charts)
US Jan payrolls +143k, less than expected and earlier payrolls revised down but recent payrolls revised up.
Unemp fell to 4% from 4.1%
Avg hrly earnings +0.5%m/4.1%y, > exp but could be due to a mix shift
Leans a little hawkish suggesting even less chance of a Mar Fed cut
(EvercoreISI charts)
Unemp fell to 4% from 4.1%
Avg hrly earnings +0.5%m/4.1%y, > exp but could be due to a mix shift
Leans a little hawkish suggesting even less chance of a Mar Fed cut
(EvercoreISI charts)
February 7, 2025 at 10:03 PM
US Jan payrolls +143k, less than expected and earlier payrolls revised down but recent payrolls revised up.
Unemp fell to 4% from 4.1%
Avg hrly earnings +0.5%m/4.1%y, > exp but could be due to a mix shift
Leans a little hawkish suggesting even less chance of a Mar Fed cut
(EvercoreISI charts)
Unemp fell to 4% from 4.1%
Avg hrly earnings +0.5%m/4.1%y, > exp but could be due to a mix shift
Leans a little hawkish suggesting even less chance of a Mar Fed cut
(EvercoreISI charts)
Mixed US JOLTs report for Oct with job openings rate up versus August but quits and hiring rate down.
US small biz optimism up slightly in November.
(EvercoreISI and Bloomberg charts)
US small biz optimism up slightly in November.
(EvercoreISI and Bloomberg charts)
December 9, 2025 at 9:40 PM
Mixed US JOLTs report for Oct with job openings rate up versus August but quits and hiring rate down.
US small biz optimism up slightly in November.
(EvercoreISI and Bloomberg charts)
US small biz optimism up slightly in November.
(EvercoreISI and Bloomberg charts)
US NY Fed 1 yr ahead consumer inflation expectations stable in Jan (pre tariff announcements) but Uni Mich 1 year ahead consumer inflation expectations up sharply in Feb (post tariff headlines)
(EvercoreISI charts)
(EvercoreISI charts)
February 11, 2025 at 10:06 PM
US NY Fed 1 yr ahead consumer inflation expectations stable in Jan (pre tariff announcements) but Uni Mich 1 year ahead consumer inflation expectations up sharply in Feb (post tariff headlines)
(EvercoreISI charts)
(EvercoreISI charts)
US Oct Phily Fed manu index fell 36 points to -12.8 more than offsetting the stronger NY Fed index.
Prices rose and remain elevated
Oct NAHB rose to 37 but remains soft
(EvercoreISI and Bloomberg charts)
Prices rose and remain elevated
Oct NAHB rose to 37 but remains soft
(EvercoreISI and Bloomberg charts)
October 16, 2025 at 9:27 PM
US Oct Phily Fed manu index fell 36 points to -12.8 more than offsetting the stronger NY Fed index.
Prices rose and remain elevated
Oct NAHB rose to 37 but remains soft
(EvercoreISI and Bloomberg charts)
Prices rose and remain elevated
Oct NAHB rose to 37 but remains soft
(EvercoreISI and Bloomberg charts)
US initial jobless claims +14k, still low but maybe starting to trend up again. Continuing claims +22k
April ending home sales -6.3%mom and -3.5%yoy …remaining weak.
(EvercoreISI charts)
April ending home sales -6.3%mom and -3.5%yoy …remaining weak.
(EvercoreISI charts)
May 29, 2025 at 11:09 PM
US initial jobless claims +14k, still low but maybe starting to trend up again. Continuing claims +22k
April ending home sales -6.3%mom and -3.5%yoy …remaining weak.
(EvercoreISI charts)
April ending home sales -6.3%mom and -3.5%yoy …remaining weak.
(EvercoreISI charts)
US April job openings +2.7%mom and hiring up but quits down…overall suggesting jobs market still fairly solid. At least up to April. Will leave Fed in wait and see mode.
(EvercoreISI charts)
(EvercoreISI charts)
June 3, 2025 at 11:14 PM
US April job openings +2.7%mom and hiring up but quits down…overall suggesting jobs market still fairly solid. At least up to April. Will leave Fed in wait and see mode.
(EvercoreISI charts)
(EvercoreISI charts)
German fiscal stimulus (defence and infrastructure) passed the Bundestag (lower house). Upper house votes on Friday. Could provide a ~1% of GDP stimulus over the year ahead.
German business expectations are up.
(EvercoreISI chart)
German business expectations are up.
(EvercoreISI chart)
March 18, 2025 at 11:24 PM
German fiscal stimulus (defence and infrastructure) passed the Bundestag (lower house). Upper house votes on Friday. Could provide a ~1% of GDP stimulus over the year ahead.
German business expectations are up.
(EvercoreISI chart)
German business expectations are up.
(EvercoreISI chart)
US initial jobless claims -10k, but continuing claims +37K and continuing higher suggesting falling job openings
May durable goods orders +16.4%mom due to aircraft orders, core capital goods orders +1.7%mom but after -1.4%mom.
(EvercoreISI charts)
May durable goods orders +16.4%mom due to aircraft orders, core capital goods orders +1.7%mom but after -1.4%mom.
(EvercoreISI charts)
June 26, 2025 at 11:06 PM
US initial jobless claims -10k, but continuing claims +37K and continuing higher suggesting falling job openings
May durable goods orders +16.4%mom due to aircraft orders, core capital goods orders +1.7%mom but after -1.4%mom.
(EvercoreISI charts)
May durable goods orders +16.4%mom due to aircraft orders, core capital goods orders +1.7%mom but after -1.4%mom.
(EvercoreISI charts)
Messy US data
Initial jobless claims +8k, rising trend but still low. Continuing claims -3k
April US trade deficit down as imports fall back after tariff front running, esp in gold
Productivity growth revised down in Q1, but still +1.3%yoy
(EvercoreISI, Bloomberg charts)
Initial jobless claims +8k, rising trend but still low. Continuing claims -3k
April US trade deficit down as imports fall back after tariff front running, esp in gold
Productivity growth revised down in Q1, but still +1.3%yoy
(EvercoreISI, Bloomberg charts)
June 5, 2025 at 10:58 PM
Messy US data
Initial jobless claims +8k, rising trend but still low. Continuing claims -3k
April US trade deficit down as imports fall back after tariff front running, esp in gold
Productivity growth revised down in Q1, but still +1.3%yoy
(EvercoreISI, Bloomberg charts)
Initial jobless claims +8k, rising trend but still low. Continuing claims -3k
April US trade deficit down as imports fall back after tariff front running, esp in gold
Productivity growth revised down in Q1, but still +1.3%yoy
(EvercoreISI, Bloomberg charts)