Sept qtr GDP grth +3.4% with strong consumer & AI driven capex (mostly imported w net exports detracting)
Real pers spending flat in Sep but after strong mths
Jobless claims fell,remain low
Core PCE too hi at 0.3%mom/3.1%yoy
(EvercoreISI & Bloomberg charts)
Sept qtr GDP grth +3.4% with strong consumer & AI driven capex (mostly imported w net exports detracting)
Real pers spending flat in Sep but after strong mths
Jobless claims fell,remain low
Core PCE too hi at 0.3%mom/3.1%yoy
(EvercoreISI & Bloomberg charts)
A goldilocks report - not too hot/not too cold - eases overheating fears & takes some pressure of Fed.
(EvercoreISI charts)
A goldilocks report - not too hot/not too cold - eases overheating fears & takes some pressure of Fed.
(EvercoreISI charts)
Unemp rose from 4.09% to 4.14% but this was due to higher participation.
This marginally increases case for a Sept hike, but CPI will be key. Wages grth remains benign +0.2%m/+3.1%y
(EvercoreISI chart)
Unemp rose from 4.09% to 4.14% but this was due to higher participation.
This marginally increases case for a Sept hike, but CPI will be key. Wages grth remains benign +0.2%m/+3.1%y
(EvercoreISI chart)
That compares with about 20% after the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930."
Chris Anstey
At just 20% sparked a world trade war,
the #GreatDepression and into the dirty 30s.
#TrumpTarrifs #Tradewar #EconomicWarfare #Trump
That compares with about 20% after the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930."
Chris Anstey
At just 20% sparked a world trade war,
the #GreatDepression and into the dirty 30s.
#TrumpTarrifs #Tradewar #EconomicWarfare #Trump
That compares with about 20% after teh Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930,"
Chris Anstey
As usual, he is NOT putting on Reciprocal Tariffs.
THESE ARE #TRUMPTARIFFS!
..and WHAT happened in 1930?
#GreatDepression2.0
#MarketCrash
That compares with about 20% after teh Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930,"
Chris Anstey
As usual, he is NOT putting on Reciprocal Tariffs.
THESE ARE #TRUMPTARIFFS!
..and WHAT happened in 1930?
#GreatDepression2.0
#MarketCrash
🚨
#alwaysbecharging
🚨
#alwaysbecharging
#artificialIntelligence #block #evercoreIsi #mastercard #ryanMcinerney #visaInc.
#nile1
#artificialIntelligence #block #evercoreIsi #mastercard #ryanMcinerney #visaInc.
#nile1
h/t os @ evercoreisi
h/t os @ evercoreisi
And my piece: www.nytimes.com/2025/03/31/o...
And my piece: www.nytimes.com/2025/03/31/o...
Airfares slowed but AI continued to boost software prices.
Implies a softening in core PCE to 3.3%y taking pressure off Warsh for a Jul hike. Rising oil prices & AI impacts still pose a risk tho.
(Bloomberg&EvercoreISI charts)
Airfares slowed but AI continued to boost software prices.
Implies a softening in core PCE to 3.3%y taking pressure off Warsh for a Jul hike. Rising oil prices & AI impacts still pose a risk tho.
(Bloomberg&EvercoreISI charts)
Payrolls +172k (mkt +88k), 3 mth avg +188k, prior 2 mths revised +93k
Unemp flat at 4.3%
AHE +0.3%m/3.4%y, down from 3.6%y
Adds to the case the next move by the Fed will be up
Money mkt has 100% prob a hike by Dec
(EvercoreISI charts)
Payrolls +172k (mkt +88k), 3 mth avg +188k, prior 2 mths revised +93k
Unemp flat at 4.3%
AHE +0.3%m/3.4%y, down from 3.6%y
Adds to the case the next move by the Fed will be up
Money mkt has 100% prob a hike by Dec
(EvercoreISI charts)
1 year inflation expectations fell 4.5%, 5-10 year inflation expectations fell slightly to 3.4%…remaining well above the pre 2025 range.
(Bloomberg and EvercoreISI charts)
1 year inflation expectations fell 4.5%, 5-10 year inflation expectations fell slightly to 3.4%…remaining well above the pre 2025 range.
(Bloomberg and EvercoreISI charts)
Leaves Fed focussed on inflation, with rates to stay on hold for now.
(EvercoreISI charts)
Leaves Fed focussed on inflation, with rates to stay on hold for now.
(EvercoreISI charts)
US productivity growth remains far stronger than in Australia.
(EvercoreISI chart)
US productivity growth remains far stronger than in Australia.
(EvercoreISI chart)
(EvercoreISI chart)
(EvercoreISI chart)
Core CPI was better behaved (for now) at +0.2%m/2.6%y but implies core PCE ~3.1%y.
Leaves Fed on hold. Last year Trumps tariffs meant higher than otherwise Fed rates, this year it’s the War!
(EvercoreISI chart)
Core CPI was better behaved (for now) at +0.2%m/2.6%y but implies core PCE ~3.1%y.
Leaves Fed on hold. Last year Trumps tariffs meant higher than otherwise Fed rates, this year it’s the War!
(EvercoreISI chart)
Feb pers income just +0.1%,real spending just 0.1%. Savings rate well below pre covid
Core PCE +0.4%mom/3%yoy as exp. Core goods +0.8%m..tariffs?
Initial jobless claim +16k but still low
Leaves fed on hold
(EvercoreISI charts)
Feb pers income just +0.1%,real spending just 0.1%. Savings rate well below pre covid
Core PCE +0.4%mom/3%yoy as exp. Core goods +0.8%m..tariffs?
Initial jobless claim +16k but still low
Leaves fed on hold
(EvercoreISI charts)
Q4 GDP revised to just 0.7%ar from 1.4% with weaker consumer & trade
Jan real personal spending just +0.1%m
Jan core PCE +0.4%m/3.1%y as exp..will keep Fed on hold
Jan openings rose with quits down slightly
Jan core capital goods orders were flat
(EvercoreISI charts)
Q4 GDP revised to just 0.7%ar from 1.4% with weaker consumer & trade
Jan real personal spending just +0.1%m
Jan core PCE +0.4%m/3.1%y as exp..will keep Fed on hold
Jan openings rose with quits down slightly
Jan core capital goods orders were flat
(EvercoreISI charts)
Feb payrolls -92k v mkt exp for +55k,unemp rose to 4.4%, wages +0.4%m/3.8%y.
Likely impacted by strike & storms & could just be in process of bottoming..Fed will take wait & see approach.
Jan retail sales -0.2% but ex auto & gas was an ok +0.3%m
(EvercoreISI charts)
Feb payrolls -92k v mkt exp for +55k,unemp rose to 4.4%, wages +0.4%m/3.8%y.
Likely impacted by strike & storms & could just be in process of bottoming..Fed will take wait & see approach.
Jan retail sales -0.2% but ex auto & gas was an ok +0.3%m
(EvercoreISI charts)