Given the target put on the back of #Everton by the Premier League, this is genuinely mind blowing.
Via @priceoffootball.bsky.social
Via @priceoffootball.bsky.social
February 7, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Deficits in HANK models can be as inflationary as in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL). The mechanism, however, is different, grounded on micro evidence about consumption, and immune to FTPL controversies, from Angeletos, Lian, and Wolf https://www.nber.org/papers/w33102
November 6, 2024 at 6:00 PM
Deficits in HANK models can be as inflationary as in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL). The mechanism, however, is different, grounded on micro evidence about consumption, and immune to FTPL controversies, from Angeletos, Lian, and Wolf https://www.nber.org/papers/w33102
Post-Milei, surpluses apparently do respond to debt = passive fiscal policy (not FTPL). Meanwhile monetary policy was certainly active as they limited money growth. And the result was stable inflation.
A win for the conventional non-FTPL way of controlling inflation. 2/2
A win for the conventional non-FTPL way of controlling inflation. 2/2
December 10, 2024 at 9:03 PM
Post-Milei, surpluses apparently do respond to debt = passive fiscal policy (not FTPL). Meanwhile monetary policy was certainly active as they limited money growth. And the result was stable inflation.
A win for the conventional non-FTPL way of controlling inflation. 2/2
A win for the conventional non-FTPL way of controlling inflation. 2/2
Looks the opposite to me.
Pre-Milei, surpluses apparently did not respond to debt = active fiscal policy as required by FTPL. But debt/GDP was growing, contrary to the prediction of the FTPL that prices jump to ensure sustainable debt. (Maybe monetary policy was active even then?) 1/2
Pre-Milei, surpluses apparently did not respond to debt = active fiscal policy as required by FTPL. But debt/GDP was growing, contrary to the prediction of the FTPL that prices jump to ensure sustainable debt. (Maybe monetary policy was active even then?) 1/2
Probably the most compelling evidence I've seen for some sort of fiscal theory of the price level
cc @anthonyleezhang.bsky.social
ht x.com/AlecStapp/st...
cc @anthonyleezhang.bsky.social
ht x.com/AlecStapp/st...
December 10, 2024 at 9:03 PM
Looks the opposite to me.
Pre-Milei, surpluses apparently did not respond to debt = active fiscal policy as required by FTPL. But debt/GDP was growing, contrary to the prediction of the FTPL that prices jump to ensure sustainable debt. (Maybe monetary policy was active even then?) 1/2
Pre-Milei, surpluses apparently did not respond to debt = active fiscal policy as required by FTPL. But debt/GDP was growing, contrary to the prediction of the FTPL that prices jump to ensure sustainable debt. (Maybe monetary policy was active even then?) 1/2
Much bigger news that employment report. And really bad.
Expectation of tariffs or tariff chaos?
FTPL from rise in expected deficits?
Extrapolation from price of eggs?
Expectation of tariffs or tariff chaos?
FTPL from rise in expected deficits?
Extrapolation from price of eggs?
UMICH: "Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped up from 3.3% last month to 4.3% this month, the highest reading since November 2023 and marking two consecutive months of unusually large increases." Long-run expectations also ticked up.
www.sca.isr.umich.edu #NumbersDay
www.sca.isr.umich.edu #NumbersDay
Surveys of Consumers
www.sca.isr.umich.edu
February 7, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Much bigger news that employment report. And really bad.
Expectation of tariffs or tariff chaos?
FTPL from rise in expected deficits?
Extrapolation from price of eggs?
Expectation of tariffs or tariff chaos?
FTPL from rise in expected deficits?
Extrapolation from price of eggs?
You could also construe some of his deregulation as a positive supply shock. But FTPL story is the most persuasive, I agree.
December 10, 2024 at 4:58 AM
You could also construe some of his deregulation as a positive supply shock. But FTPL story is the most persuasive, I agree.
Parris Lilly: “This Industry Is Cooked.” - YouTube
www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTpL...
#GBN #GreenBloodNetwork #OneManDarkMan #DirtGriggity #ParrisLilly #GamingIndustry #GamingStudios #GamingHardware #Affordability via @griggity.bsky.social
www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTpL...
#GBN #GreenBloodNetwork #OneManDarkMan #DirtGriggity #ParrisLilly #GamingIndustry #GamingStudios #GamingHardware #Affordability via @griggity.bsky.social
Parris Lilly: “This Industry Is Cooked.”
YouTube video by GBN - Green Blood Network
www.youtube.com
June 27, 2026 at 8:34 PM
Parris Lilly: “This Industry Is Cooked.” - YouTube
www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTpL...
#GBN #GreenBloodNetwork #OneManDarkMan #DirtGriggity #ParrisLilly #GamingIndustry #GamingStudios #GamingHardware #Affordability via @griggity.bsky.social
www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTpL...
#GBN #GreenBloodNetwork #OneManDarkMan #DirtGriggity #ParrisLilly #GamingIndustry #GamingStudios #GamingHardware #Affordability via @griggity.bsky.social
Great debate, with 1 firm conclusion: Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) is the political right’s equivalent of the left’s MMT. Both blame deviations from predicted outcomes on unobservable shifts in public perceptions (whether gov debt will be paid off or whether it’s a reserve currency)
If you are ASSA come hear Ben Bernanke, John Cochrane, Christy Romer and I discuss inflation and monetary policy on Saturday morning at 8am.
January 5, 2025 at 7:35 PM
Great debate, with 1 firm conclusion: Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) is the political right’s equivalent of the left’s MMT. Both blame deviations from predicted outcomes on unobservable shifts in public perceptions (whether gov debt will be paid off or whether it’s a reserve currency)
BK: Taylor circularity ⇒ eigenvalues on edge of stability, π indeterminate along the stable manifold
FTPL: transversality in the bond market restores uniqueness via repricing to restore gov't solvency
Non-Ricardian: π pinned down by contemporary fiscal, Taylor coef doesn't determine stability
FTPL: transversality in the bond market restores uniqueness via repricing to restore gov't solvency
Non-Ricardian: π pinned down by contemporary fiscal, Taylor coef doesn't determine stability
Regular-brain: Kevin Warsh's first press conference was confusing.
Galaxy-brain: That press conference was circular.
Universe-brain: That was indeterminate, it failed
Blanchard-Kahn conditions.
The confusion financial markets felt coming out of that press conference derives from economic logic.
Galaxy-brain: That press conference was circular.
Universe-brain: That was indeterminate, it failed
Blanchard-Kahn conditions.
The confusion financial markets felt coming out of that press conference derives from economic logic.
June 23, 2026 at 4:29 PM
BK: Taylor circularity ⇒ eigenvalues on edge of stability, π indeterminate along the stable manifold
FTPL: transversality in the bond market restores uniqueness via repricing to restore gov't solvency
Non-Ricardian: π pinned down by contemporary fiscal, Taylor coef doesn't determine stability
FTPL: transversality in the bond market restores uniqueness via repricing to restore gov't solvency
Non-Ricardian: π pinned down by contemporary fiscal, Taylor coef doesn't determine stability
But (a) it's perhaps OK to reason from explicit policy statements about a desire to control debt and (b) most FTPL proponents repeatedly do the same - see the desire to explain current inflation with current high government spending.
January 5, 2025 at 8:24 PM
But (a) it's perhaps OK to reason from explicit policy statements about a desire to control debt and (b) most FTPL proponents repeatedly do the same - see the desire to explain current inflation with current high government spending.
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Join us on 25 September for a FREE family history webinar with expert genealogist Carole McCulloch. Usually priced at £10, you can come along for free when you sign up for the Family Tree newsletter!
August 20, 2025 at 7:02 PM
SPECIAL OFFER! FREE WEBINAR!
Sign up now: https://bit.ly/free-ftpl-webinar
Join us on 25 September for a FREE family history webinar with expert genealogist Carole McCulloch. Usually priced at £10, you can come along for free when you sign up for the Family Tree newsletter!
Sign up now: https://bit.ly/free-ftpl-webinar
Join us on 25 September for a FREE family history webinar with expert genealogist Carole McCulloch. Usually priced at £10, you can come along for free when you sign up for the Family Tree newsletter!
Per Christian Wolf: "We're happy to see this out, on deficits ➡️ inflation in HANK and in the FTPL. Some quick thoughts: HANK and the FTPL provide rather different accounts of how deficits drive inflation: because households are non-Ricardian in HANK, and through assumptions on equilibrium selection"
December 3, 2024 at 6:05 PM
Per Christian Wolf: "We're happy to see this out, on deficits ➡️ inflation in HANK and in the FTPL. Some quick thoughts: HANK and the FTPL provide rather different accounts of how deficits drive inflation: because households are non-Ricardian in HANK, and through assumptions on equilibrium selection"
IFALPA Female Pilots’ Working Group- 1st time in Africa/Middle East Region- graciously hosted by FTPL in Tunis. From leadership representation to post-maternity support, focused on real issues facing women pilots worldwide. #womeninaviation #womenpilots #IFALPAwomenpilots
June 4, 2025 at 4:46 PM
IFALPA Female Pilots’ Working Group- 1st time in Africa/Middle East Region- graciously hosted by FTPL in Tunis. From leadership representation to post-maternity support, focused on real issues facing women pilots worldwide. #womeninaviation #womenpilots #IFALPAwomenpilots
今度FTPLについてのセミナーをすることになったので、渡辺先生と岩本先生の『新しい物価理論』を読み直してるんだけど、読むたびに新しい気づきがあって良い本。
もちろん去年出たCochraneの本の方が直近の動向まで踏まえて書かれてる（し、そっちも参考にする）けど、読んでいて楽しいのは圧倒的に渡辺先生＆岩本先生の本。
もちろん去年出たCochraneの本の方が直近の動向まで踏まえて書かれてる（し、そっちも参考にする）けど、読んでいて楽しいのは圧倒的に渡辺先生＆岩本先生の本。
February 14, 2024 at 6:31 PM
今度FTPLについてのセミナーをすることになったので、渡辺先生と岩本先生の『新しい物価理論』を読み直してるんだけど、読むたびに新しい気づきがあって良い本。
もちろん去年出たCochraneの本の方が直近の動向まで踏まえて書かれてる（し、そっちも参考にする）けど、読んでいて楽しいのは圧倒的に渡辺先生＆岩本先生の本。
もちろん去年出たCochraneの本の方が直近の動向まで踏まえて書かれてる（し、そっちも参考にする）けど、読んでいて楽しいのは圧倒的に渡辺先生＆岩本先生の本。
Santander aplica teoria de Cochrane para projeções no Brasil
Santander aplica teoria de Cochrane para projeções no Brasil
A Teoria Fiscal do Nível de Preços (FTPL, na sigla em inglês), abordagem defendida pelo economista John Cochrane, começa a ganhar aplicações m...
valor.globo.com
September 11, 2026 at 11:07 AM
Santander aplica teoria de Cochrane para projeções no Brasil
Cochrane stresses that FTPL is observationally equivalent to anything else and I stress that active monetary RRR is observationally equivalent to anything else. So yeah, it's rather bad form to do what I'm doing here and reason from short run debt movements.
January 5, 2025 at 8:21 PM
Cochrane stresses that FTPL is observationally equivalent to anything else and I stress that active monetary RRR is observationally equivalent to anything else. So yeah, it's rather bad form to do what I'm doing here and reason from short run debt movements.
As of now, we at #FTPL do not believe #LuigiMangione is guilty of murder of UHC CEO #BrianThompson. Things are not adding up (& may not ever) so we're keeping open minds abt that aspect.
That said, one man w/a pistol & a populist agenda has shaken the stranglehold that corporate sociopaths.. 1of?
That said, one man w/a pistol & a populist agenda has shaken the stranglehold that corporate sociopaths.. 1of?
December 14, 2024 at 8:39 PM
As of now, we at #FTPL do not believe #LuigiMangione is guilty of murder of UHC CEO #BrianThompson. Things are not adding up (& may not ever) so we're keeping open minds abt that aspect.
That said, one man w/a pistol & a populist agenda has shaken the stranglehold that corporate sociopaths.. 1of?
That said, one man w/a pistol & a populist agenda has shaken the stranglehold that corporate sociopaths.. 1of?
FTPLを拡張した理論とやらの紹介が28ページから続くらしいが、FTPLの説明をしてるようにしか見えず、どこが拡張なのかわからない。もちろん当方FTPLについては無知。
September 22, 2026 at 1:14 AM
FTPLを拡張した理論とやらの紹介が28ページから続くらしいが、FTPLの説明をしてるようにしか見えず、どこが拡張なのかわからない。もちろん当方FTPLについては無知。
Santander aplica teoria de Cochrane para projeções
Santander aplica teoria de Cochrane para projeções
A Teoria Fiscal do Nível de Preços (FTPL, na sigla em inglês), abordagem defendida pelo economista John Cochrane, começa a ganhar aplicações mais c...
valor.globo.com
September 11, 2026 at 9:09 AM
Santander aplica teoria de Cochrane para projeções