Pennsylvania's Electric Utilities May Be Overstating Data Center Projections
Concerns are emerging that Pennsylvania’s electric utilities may be overstating the number of data centers and other large energy projects anticipated to come online. These potentially exaggerated figures, submitted to PJM, the regional grid operator, have significantly altered projections for electricity demand. Inaccurate demand forecasting can lead to artificial price increases, ultimately impacting Pennsylvania residents.
PJM's recent forecasts indicate a substantial rise in electricity consumption across the Mid-Atlantic region, largely attributed to the anticipated growth of data centers powering artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and digital storage. Pennsylvania has been identified as a key hub for this expansion, due to factors like location and lower energy costs. However, the accuracy of these projections is now being questioned.
Testimony recently revealed that multiple electric utilities might be counting the same prospective data centers multiple times across different forecasts. Connecting to the electrical grid is a lengthy process, often taking years, especially for large users like data centers. Each utility holds a monopoly over specific areas, leading data centers to "venue shop," seeking the utility that can most quickly connect them to the grid. A preliminary inquiry from one utility could be treated as a pending application by another, and then used to justify infrastructure upgrades, essentially inflating the perceived certainty of these projects. These inflated assumptions feed directly into the energy market pricing model.
As a result, PJM believes it needs to plan for a potentially unrealistic surge in energy demand. This triggers the approval of transmission projects, capacity procurements, and grid reinforcements based on these potentially inflated figures. These costs are then passed on to consumers in the form of higher electricity bills. This process, which should be a careful and measured approach to infrastructure planning, has become a speculative exercise with consumers bearing the financial burden.
While Pennsylvania needs modern infrastructure and aims to attract data centers, sound policy requires reliable data. Allowing utilities to report speculative projects as guaranteed growth creates incentives for unnecessary spending, hinders smaller, more efficient energy solutions, and increases costs for families and businesses.
Legislative action is needed. First, a full audit of pending data center projections submitted by electric utilities should be mandated. Second, the Public Utility Commission should revise the methodology for counting and reporting future demand, focusing only on projects with contractual commitments. Third, transparency from PJM regarding how these projections influence pricing and capital investment is crucial.
The rapid technological changes brought about by the AI boom and digital transition highlight the need to adapt past bureaucratic processes to the evolving energy market. Energy markets must be built on reality, not speculation.
Athan Koutsiouroumbas is a managing director at Long Nyquist and Associates and a former congressional chief of staff. Follow him on X at @Athan_K.