The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. The LTCM rule always applies.
October 27, 2025 at 5:35 PM
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. The LTCM rule always applies.
LTCM FTW
RETVRN
RETVRN
🚨 Remember when the US Treasury caused that major yen rally in ‘98?
Us neither
www.ft.com/content/5506...
Us neither
www.ft.com/content/5506...
Remember when the US Treasury caused that major yen rally in ‘98?
Us neither
www.ft.com
August 5, 2026 at 12:39 PM
LTCM FTW
RETVRN
RETVRN
LTCM vibes tonight.
April 9, 2025 at 5:08 AM
LTCM vibes tonight.
LTCM for US semis foundries or something
*INTEL IS SAID TO ASK APPLE TO INVEST AS PART OF COMEBACK BID
*INTEL IS SAID TO ASK APPLE TO INVEST AS PART OF COMEBACK BID
September 24, 2025 at 7:49 PM
LTCM for US semis foundries or something
*INTEL IS SAID TO ASK APPLE TO INVEST AS PART OF COMEBACK BID
*INTEL IS SAID TO ASK APPLE TO INVEST AS PART OF COMEBACK BID
gonna go with
covid
2008
maybe during ltcm
covid
2008
maybe during ltcm
“Rare, ugly and worrying”. That is how Krishna Guha, vice-chair at Evercore ISI, described the market moves today. In the last 30 yrs he said there are only four other episodes in which the U.S dollar index depreciated more than 1.5% with the yield on U.S. 30-year government debt up more than 10bps
April 10, 2025 at 11:16 PM
gonna go with
covid
2008
maybe during ltcm
covid
2008
maybe during ltcm
The Situational Awareness thing? Yeah, that’s legit. Insanely bad risk management.
LTCM? Same deal.
Random sell side analyst missing a forecast for quarterly EPS? Yeah not so much.
LTCM? Same deal.
Random sell side analyst missing a forecast for quarterly EPS? Yeah not so much.
August 2, 2026 at 3:20 PM
The Situational Awareness thing? Yeah, that’s legit. Insanely bad risk management.
LTCM? Same deal.
Random sell side analyst missing a forecast for quarterly EPS? Yeah not so much.
LTCM? Same deal.
Random sell side analyst missing a forecast for quarterly EPS? Yeah not so much.
Or the 2008 Lehman Brothers collapse or the 1998 LTCM collapse.
They all know about that stuff. I suspect the idea that deregulation was to blame creates so much cognitive dissonance their head implodes.
They all know about that stuff. I suspect the idea that deregulation was to blame creates so much cognitive dissonance their head implodes.
Oh hell yes, let's absolutely get rid of the FDIC. Would love to have re learn all the lessons of the New Deal again.
www.wsj.com/finance/regu...
www.wsj.com/finance/regu...
Exclusive | Trump Advisers Seek to Shrink or Eliminate Bank Regulators
Advisers asked potential nominees whether Trump could abolish the FDIC.
www.wsj.com
December 13, 2024 at 12:55 AM
Or the 2008 Lehman Brothers collapse or the 1998 LTCM collapse.
They all know about that stuff. I suspect the idea that deregulation was to blame creates so much cognitive dissonance their head implodes.
They all know about that stuff. I suspect the idea that deregulation was to blame creates so much cognitive dissonance their head implodes.
Perhaps worth noting that today’s small-versus-large reversal has also echoed post-LTCM behavior. 🤔
January 23, 2026 at 2:56 PM
Perhaps worth noting that today’s small-versus-large reversal has also echoed post-LTCM behavior. 🤔
And wasn't that "dark money from AIPAC" also spent against the candidate who WON?
bsky.app/profile/ltcm...
bsky.app/profile/ltcm...
to be fair... Fetterman appeared to be more progressive and then had a stroke and turned into a DINO, and with luck, will be voted out next election. I am more upset that Kat Abughazaleh lost her primary thanks to Dark Money from AIPAC
March 21, 2026 at 3:11 AM
And wasn't that "dark money from AIPAC" also spent against the candidate who WON?
bsky.app/profile/ltcm...
bsky.app/profile/ltcm...
The University of Chicago is really just LTCM with a school attached to it
August 18, 2025 at 3:57 PM
The University of Chicago is really just LTCM with a school attached to it
The next LTCM will be a robot
July 28, 2025 at 6:34 PM
The next LTCM will be a robot
So Bessent thinks LTCM was okay.
Bessent doesn't like Nic.
Bessent doesn't like the K shaped economy.
Did I miss anything?
Bessent doesn't like Nic.
Bessent doesn't like the K shaped economy.
Did I miss anything?
August 5, 2026 at 7:14 PM
So Bessent thinks LTCM was okay.
Bessent doesn't like Nic.
Bessent doesn't like the K shaped economy.
Did I miss anything?
Bessent doesn't like Nic.
Bessent doesn't like the K shaped economy.
Did I miss anything?
Note to self: XLP/SPY is echoing post-LTCM behavior, suggesting a mature secular regime.
September 23, 2025 at 12:07 PM
Note to self: XLP/SPY is echoing post-LTCM behavior, suggesting a mature secular regime.
Wait so yesterday was LTCM for crypto? Lmao
October 11, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Wait so yesterday was LTCM for crypto? Lmao
Strong LTCM vibe
Have you seen terms like “off the runs”, “basis trades” and “swap spreads” bandied about over the past few days and been a little baffled?
Then Alphaville has you covered in our guide to the top trades of the fixed income relative value pantheon. www.ft.com/content/6e62...
Then Alphaville has you covered in our guide to the top trades of the fixed income relative value pantheon. www.ft.com/content/6e62...
The trades threatening the Treasury market
A guide to the hedge fund strategies fuelling the tariff turmoil
www.ft.com
April 9, 2025 at 4:43 PM
Strong LTCM vibe
yep, LTCM in one sentence
September 25, 2026 at 11:04 PM
yep, LTCM in one sentence
LTCM was fun though right
Here are two analog charts, the first from Datatrek comping the Nasdaq since the end of 2022 with the post-Netscape '90s move.
The second, using Bespoke's Haystack pattern-recognition tool, shows S&P 500 with one of its closest matches in terms of a one-year path, the one that began in Jan. 1999.
The second, using Bespoke's Haystack pattern-recognition tool, shows S&P 500 with one of its closest matches in terms of a one-year path, the one that began in Jan. 1999.
August 21, 2025 at 2:58 PM
LTCM was fun though right
You should care about this because bonds aren't just boring financial instruments (they are that are more!).
They’re the world's largest early warning system and they tell us a lot about correlated risks.
(Laughs in LTCM)
They’re the world's largest early warning system and they tell us a lot about correlated risks.
(Laughs in LTCM)
April 9, 2025 at 4:56 AM
You should care about this because bonds aren't just boring financial instruments (they are that are more!).
They’re the world's largest early warning system and they tell us a lot about correlated risks.
(Laughs in LTCM)
They’re the world's largest early warning system and they tell us a lot about correlated risks.
(Laughs in LTCM)
Or the 2008 Lehman Brothers collapse or the 1998 LTCM collapse.
They all know about that stuff. I suspect the idea that deregulation was to blame creates so much cognitive dissonance their head implodes.
They all know about that stuff. I suspect the idea that deregulation was to blame creates so much cognitive dissonance their head implodes.
Oh hell yes, let's absolutely get rid of the FDIC. Would love to have re learn all the lessons of the New Deal again.
www.wsj.com/finance/regu...
www.wsj.com/finance/regu...
Exclusive | Trump Advisers Seek to Shrink or Eliminate Bank Regulators
Advisers asked potential nominees whether Trump could abolish the FDIC.
www.wsj.com
December 13, 2024 at 1:29 PM
Or the 2008 Lehman Brothers collapse or the 1998 LTCM collapse.
They all know about that stuff. I suspect the idea that deregulation was to blame creates so much cognitive dissonance their head implodes.
They all know about that stuff. I suspect the idea that deregulation was to blame creates so much cognitive dissonance their head implodes.
Archegos - LTCM - Situational Awareness - Citadel
August 17, 2026 at 6:40 PM
Archegos - LTCM - Situational Awareness - Citadel
Common response is "yeah but this time is worse". Prior instances:
1998 - LTCM blows up & EM crash
2000/2001/2002 - Tech bubble pops
2008 - GFC
2011 - US ratings cut/EZ debt crisis
2015 - yuan devaluation
2016 - oil collapse
2018 - Fed tightening
2020 - COVID
2022 - see 2018
2023 - see 2018/2022
1998 - LTCM blows up & EM crash
2000/2001/2002 - Tech bubble pops
2008 - GFC
2011 - US ratings cut/EZ debt crisis
2015 - yuan devaluation
2016 - oil collapse
2018 - Fed tightening
2020 - COVID
2022 - see 2018
2023 - see 2018/2022
March 13, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Common response is "yeah but this time is worse". Prior instances:
1998 - LTCM blows up & EM crash
2000/2001/2002 - Tech bubble pops
2008 - GFC
2011 - US ratings cut/EZ debt crisis
2015 - yuan devaluation
2016 - oil collapse
2018 - Fed tightening
2020 - COVID
2022 - see 2018
2023 - see 2018/2022
1998 - LTCM blows up & EM crash
2000/2001/2002 - Tech bubble pops
2008 - GFC
2011 - US ratings cut/EZ debt crisis
2015 - yuan devaluation
2016 - oil collapse
2018 - Fed tightening
2020 - COVID
2022 - see 2018
2023 - see 2018/2022
It's too big to save. No policy tools left, Fed totally lacks credibility. It is going to fail and the scariest thing is that it could possibly take down the whole global economy with it - like (GFC+LTCM+Evergrande)*100...
Terrifying.
Terrifying.
October 7, 2025 at 11:24 PM
It's too big to save. No policy tools left, Fed totally lacks credibility. It is going to fail and the scariest thing is that it could possibly take down the whole global economy with it - like (GFC+LTCM+Evergrande)*100...
Terrifying.
Terrifying.