Competitive authoritarianism. Right off the checklist. Current forecast at Metaculus is 41% for charges against a leading Democrat this year www.metaculus.com/c/brightline...
March 4, 2025 at 8:58 PM
Competitive authoritarianism. Right off the checklist. Current forecast at Metaculus is 41% for charges against a leading Democrat this year www.metaculus.com/c/brightline...
yup! also im not sure how much metacalculus is truly LW/rat sphere but in this benchmark AGI has not been achieved
www.metaculus.com/futureeval/l...
www.metaculus.com/futureeval/l...
Top Model Leaderboards | Metaculus
Full AI model leaderboard for Metaculus FutureEval
www.metaculus.com
September 22, 2026 at 1:56 PM
yup! also im not sure how much metacalculus is truly LW/rat sphere but in this benchmark AGI has not been achieved
www.metaculus.com/futureeval/l...
www.metaculus.com/futureeval/l...
Top Model Leaderboards | Metaculus
Full AI model leaderboard for Metaculus FutureEval
www.metaculus.com
September 22, 2026 at 1:57 PM
The questions and discussion on Metaculus are often very interesting:
Going to Metaculus to get my news always makes me feel like I'm living in the future
November 20, 2024 at 6:06 AM
The questions and discussion on Metaculus are often very interesting:
Metaculus forecasters now expect "weak AGI" to arrive later than they did just before the launch of ChatGPT
March 10, 2026 at 4:00 PM
Metaculus forecasters now expect "weak AGI" to arrive later than they did just before the launch of ChatGPT
Going to Metaculus to get my news always makes me feel like I'm living in the future
November 20, 2024 at 5:21 AM
Going to Metaculus to get my news always makes me feel like I'm living in the future
Forget the AIs, we need better humans
www.economist.com/science-and-...
www.economist.com/science-and-...
September 17, 2026 at 6:58 PM
Forget the AIs, we need better humans
www.economist.com/science-and-...
www.economist.com/science-and-...
but but but my betting markets... (time to check whether metaculus had a market on this and did better)
February 2, 2025 at 12:42 AM
but but but my betting markets... (time to check whether metaculus had a market on this and did better)
Video of Astra winning Montezuma's Revenge: www.youtube.com/watch?v=AeWL...
Metaculus page: www.metaculus.com/questions/34...
Metaculus page: www.metaculus.com/questions/34...
Astra plays Montezuma's Revenge
YouTube video by swish fever
www.youtube.com
September 8, 2026 at 4:58 PM
Video of Astra winning Montezuma's Revenge: www.youtube.com/watch?v=AeWL...
Metaculus page: www.metaculus.com/questions/34...
Metaculus page: www.metaculus.com/questions/34...
I'm honored of placing first in the Astral Codex Ten - Metaculus tournament for 2025, out of 2975 competitors (top 0.03%)! 🏆🔮
This 1st place win comes after placing 12th in 2024, 12th in 2023, and 20th in 2022.
Predicting 2025 - of all years - was quite a challenge. 💪
This 1st place win comes after placing 12th in 2024, 12th in 2023, and 20th in 2022.
Predicting 2025 - of all years - was quite a challenge. 💪
February 3, 2026 at 7:33 PM
I'm honored of placing first in the Astral Codex Ten - Metaculus tournament for 2025, out of 2975 competitors (top 0.03%)! 🏆🔮
This 1st place win comes after placing 12th in 2024, 12th in 2023, and 20th in 2022.
Predicting 2025 - of all years - was quite a challenge. 💪
This 1st place win comes after placing 12th in 2024, 12th in 2023, and 20th in 2022.
Predicting 2025 - of all years - was quite a challenge. 💪
New Metaculus prediction contests to estimate future outcomes for foreign aid after the Trump admin actions against USAID www.metaculus.com/tournament/u...
March 4, 2025 at 8:50 PM
New Metaculus prediction contests to estimate future outcomes for foreign aid after the Trump admin actions against USAID www.metaculus.com/tournament/u...
Really cannot hold comparison to metaculus comments, real alpha there
June 17, 2025 at 11:35 PM
Really cannot hold comparison to metaculus comments, real alpha there
been thinking about this
something like metaculus but with explicit probabilistic modeling and computation built-in
probably using squiggle or a similar language
something like metaculus but with explicit probabilistic modeling and computation built-in
probably using squiggle or a similar language
i think someone should make wikibayes. trying to do this as an individual is hard and there's so many places for potential bias to creep in...
May 11, 2025 at 8:11 PM
been thinking about this
something like metaculus but with explicit probabilistic modeling and computation built-in
probably using squiggle or a similar language
something like metaculus but with explicit probabilistic modeling and computation built-in
probably using squiggle or a similar language
For those interested in forecasting, our new report compares political science expert predictions of democratic erosion with @metaculus.bsky.social forecasts and AI forecasts from Mantic
Check out the full US Democracy Threat Index we co-created with Metaculus here www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...
Check out the full US Democracy Threat Index we co-created with Metaculus here www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...
October 1, 2025 at 6:08 PM
For those interested in forecasting, our new report compares political science expert predictions of democratic erosion with @metaculus.bsky.social forecasts and AI forecasts from Mantic
Check out the full US Democracy Threat Index we co-created with Metaculus here www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...
Check out the full US Democracy Threat Index we co-created with Metaculus here www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...
Weakly General AI achieved (at least according to the criteria set in Metaculus in 2020) & a year before the most recent predictions:
✅Loebner prize was a weak Turing Test, equivalent achieved by GPT-4.5
✅Winograd passed by GPT-3
✅SAT passed at 75% by GPT-4
✅Montezuma's Revenge beaten by GPT-6
✅Loebner prize was a weak Turing Test, equivalent achieved by GPT-4.5
✅Winograd passed by GPT-3
✅SAT passed at 75% by GPT-4
✅Montezuma's Revenge beaten by GPT-6
September 8, 2026 at 4:53 PM
Weakly General AI achieved (at least according to the criteria set in Metaculus in 2020) & a year before the most recent predictions:
✅Loebner prize was a weak Turing Test, equivalent achieved by GPT-4.5
✅Winograd passed by GPT-3
✅SAT passed at 75% by GPT-4
✅Montezuma's Revenge beaten by GPT-6
✅Loebner prize was a weak Turing Test, equivalent achieved by GPT-4.5
✅Winograd passed by GPT-3
✅SAT passed at 75% by GPT-4
✅Montezuma's Revenge beaten by GPT-6
There was one metric from metaculus that AGI was something like
"A digital system that can
a. pass an extensive turing test
b. score very well on a difficult coding benchmark
c. assemble a ferrari from instructions"
Which like we're basically at a and b and decades away from c at the current pace
"A digital system that can
a. pass an extensive turing test
b. score very well on a difficult coding benchmark
c. assemble a ferrari from instructions"
Which like we're basically at a and b and decades away from c at the current pace
February 19, 2026 at 1:24 AM
There was one metric from metaculus that AGI was something like
"A digital system that can
a. pass an extensive turing test
b. score very well on a difficult coding benchmark
c. assemble a ferrari from instructions"
Which like we're basically at a and b and decades away from c at the current pace
"A digital system that can
a. pass an extensive turing test
b. score very well on a difficult coding benchmark
c. assemble a ferrari from instructions"
Which like we're basically at a and b and decades away from c at the current pace
Experts identified Patel's confirmation (now official) and the White House revoking media credentials as the most likely events that pose a significant threat to democracy.
After adjusting for pessimism bias, expert forecasts correspond closely with forecasters on the Metaculus prediction platform.
After adjusting for pessimism bias, expert forecasts correspond closely with forecasters on the Metaculus prediction platform.
February 24, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Experts identified Patel's confirmation (now official) and the White House revoking media credentials as the most likely events that pose a significant threat to democracy.
After adjusting for pessimism bias, expert forecasts correspond closely with forecasters on the Metaculus prediction platform.
After adjusting for pessimism bias, expert forecasts correspond closely with forecasters on the Metaculus prediction platform.
Our new Bright Line Watch forecasting Q on Metaculus is up: forecasters expect non-routine military or federalized National Guard deployments to four large metro areas by 11/3/26 www.metaculus.com/questions/38...
July 9, 2025 at 8:10 PM
Our new Bright Line Watch forecasting Q on Metaculus is up: forecasters expect non-routine military or federalized National Guard deployments to four large metro areas by 11/3/26 www.metaculus.com/questions/38...
do you use metaculus? if so what are your use patterns like?
(addressed to the commons)
(addressed to the commons)
Also this is unrelated but how do I find out if I am good or bad at Metaculus?
February 17, 2025 at 2:12 AM
do you use metaculus? if so what are your use patterns like?
(addressed to the commons)
(addressed to the commons)
Metaculus v Polymarket predicting the Iran attack -- @kikollan.llaneras.es in @elpais.com: elpais.com/actualidad/n...
March 8, 2026 at 9:35 PM
Metaculus v Polymarket predicting the Iran attack -- @kikollan.llaneras.es in @elpais.com: elpais.com/actualidad/n...
Ambitious Metaculus/Convergence Analysis survey on the economic impact of AI.
www.convergenceanalysis.org/threshold-20...
www.convergenceanalysis.org/threshold-20...
February 25, 2025 at 7:58 AM
Ambitious Metaculus/Convergence Analysis survey on the economic impact of AI.
www.convergenceanalysis.org/threshold-20...
www.convergenceanalysis.org/threshold-20...
Metaculus vs Manifold? pros/cons?
Thanks, I'll read the thread here. I don't have any strong prior on whether the format of Metaculus vs Manifold produces more accurate results, and my only weak update from that is knowing that Metaculus had more accurate forecasts of the 2020 election. Wonder if there's more data on that.
February 17, 2025 at 9:07 PM
Metaculus vs Manifold? pros/cons?
imagine if I could spell Metaculus correctly the first time
March 14, 2025 at 2:14 PM
imagine if I could spell Metaculus correctly the first time
(one of our Bright Line Watch-contributed questions on Metaculus)
October 7, 2025 at 1:40 AM
(one of our Bright Line Watch-contributed questions on Metaculus)
The company says its system beat all 676 human participants in this summer's Metaculus Cup, including professional forecasters. It also says Mantic finished ahead of the competing AI startups and frontier models running on Metaculus' standardized harness.
September 22, 2026 at 3:00 PM
The company says its system beat all 676 human participants in this summer's Metaculus Cup, including professional forecasters. It also says Mantic finished ahead of the competing AI startups and frontier models running on Metaculus' standardized harness.