Great set of final NYT polls for the Democrats, particularly Michigan, Texas and Kansas.
Also they changed their methodology from previous cycles which actually boosts the Republicans. Image on the right shows what they'd be on the old methodology.
Feeling a bit more confident in my predictions...
Also they changed their methodology from previous cycles which actually boosts the Republicans. Image on the right shows what they'd be on the old methodology.
Feeling a bit more confident in my predictions...
November 2, 2026 at 7:35 AM
Great set of final NYT polls for the Democrats, particularly Michigan, Texas and Kansas.
Also they changed their methodology from previous cycles which actually boosts the Republicans. Image on the right shows what they'd be on the old methodology.
Feeling a bit more confident in my predictions...
Also they changed their methodology from previous cycles which actually boosts the Republicans. Image on the right shows what they'd be on the old methodology.
Feeling a bit more confident in my predictions...
ridiculous map. Russia did not “invade” Cuba. Conversely it *did* invade Germany, but you’re not counting that bc it would lead to people asking some obvious questions about your methodology.
If russia hasn’t attacked your country yet, just wait a little…
November 1, 2026 at 4:51 PM
ridiculous map. Russia did not “invade” Cuba. Conversely it *did* invade Germany, but you’re not counting that bc it would lead to people asking some obvious questions about your methodology.
"listening is unscientific" is terrrrrrible methodology
November 2, 2026 at 6:25 AM
"listening is unscientific" is terrrrrrible methodology
Ah bringing metrics based business methodology to sermon prep, what could go wrong with this?
October 31, 2026 at 12:53 PM
Ah bringing metrics based business methodology to sermon prep, what could go wrong with this?
#Stonewall
This goes for the UK government on human rights too.
If they hone a methodology for destroying the #HumanRights of one group, they create a weapon that can be turned against anyone.
This goes for the UK government on human rights too.
If they hone a methodology for destroying the #HumanRights of one group, they create a weapon that can be turned against anyone.
Hell, the entire queer community. S'onewall has shown they'll abandon one group, we now have to believe they'll abandon any other group too.
November 1, 2026 at 11:24 AM
#Stonewall
This goes for the UK government on human rights too.
If they hone a methodology for destroying the #HumanRights of one group, they create a weapon that can be turned against anyone.
This goes for the UK government on human rights too.
If they hone a methodology for destroying the #HumanRights of one group, they create a weapon that can be turned against anyone.
Give Olivia Reingold some credit, this is a major leap in journalistic methodology from "I read some tweets"
November 2, 2026 at 11:55 PM
Give Olivia Reingold some credit, this is a major leap in journalistic methodology from "I read some tweets"
I actually appreciate that he showed what the old modeling result would be vs. the new methodology. Made me feel better about the current projections
November 2, 2026 at 4:07 AM
I actually appreciate that he showed what the old modeling result would be vs. the new methodology. Made me feel better about the current projections
I'm in the Department of Anesthesiology, Pharmacology, and Therapeutics and the Therapeutics Initiative @drug-evidence.bsky.social
I'll be doing all the causal inference & translational methodology research you love, plus helping the BC government answer pressing questions about medical treatments!
I'll be doing all the causal inference & translational methodology research you love, plus helping the BC government answer pressing questions about medical treatments!
November 2, 2026 at 9:42 PM
I'm in the Department of Anesthesiology, Pharmacology, and Therapeutics and the Therapeutics Initiative @drug-evidence.bsky.social
I'll be doing all the causal inference & translational methodology research you love, plus helping the BC government answer pressing questions about medical treatments!
I'll be doing all the causal inference & translational methodology research you love, plus helping the BC government answer pressing questions about medical treatments!
Reminder: Polls don't vote; people vote. So please, get out and vote first! But still, this is an interesting discussion re the methodology of polling and a reminder that polls are snapshots in time and are not static facts.
www.nytimes.com/2026/10/28/i...
www.nytimes.com/2026/10/28/i...
Can You Trust the Midterm Polls? Three Times Journalists Talk It Out. (Gift Article)
Members of the team behind the Times/Siena Poll on what the data show, how they’ve improved their methodology and what it means to be “right.”
www.nytimes.com
November 2, 2026 at 12:28 PM
Reminder: Polls don't vote; people vote. So please, get out and vote first! But still, this is an interesting discussion re the methodology of polling and a reminder that polls are snapshots in time and are not static facts.
www.nytimes.com/2026/10/28/i...
www.nytimes.com/2026/10/28/i...
"we created a new methodology that makes democrats look like they aren't performing that well because the media narrative cannot be that people are swinging HUGE for democrats,"
November 2, 2026 at 1:48 AM
"we created a new methodology that makes democrats look like they aren't performing that well because the media narrative cannot be that people are swinging HUGE for democrats,"
this place's Andrews+5 is unfortunately a junk methodology if you ask me
Little better than a push poll
static1.squarespace.com/static/54512...
Little better than a push poll
static1.squarespace.com/static/54512...
November 3, 2026 at 12:13 AM
this place's Andrews+5 is unfortunately a junk methodology if you ask me
Little better than a push poll
static1.squarespace.com/static/54512...
Little better than a push poll
static1.squarespace.com/static/54512...
I’ve had an unintentional experiment using this methodology on one of my YT channels that got discovered by Lula supporters the day after the Brazilian election.
Result: more views on one video than I’ve ever had in ten years doing news analysis.
Brazil has written the new political guidebook.
Result: more views on one video than I’ve ever had in ten years doing news analysis.
Brazil has written the new political guidebook.
From coordinated social media campaigns to reclaiming national symbols, the online strategy mobilized many to vote for Lula, in an effort that experts say offers a striking example of how the Brazilian left learned to fight the right on its turf. https://cnn.it/48sYbEp
November 2, 2026 at 10:58 AM
I’ve had an unintentional experiment using this methodology on one of my YT channels that got discovered by Lula supporters the day after the Brazilian election.
Result: more views on one video than I’ve ever had in ten years doing news analysis.
Brazil has written the new political guidebook.
Result: more views on one video than I’ve ever had in ten years doing news analysis.
Brazil has written the new political guidebook.
“I disapprove of your statistical analysis methodology, you PETA’Q!” *swings batleth*
*parries with my own batleth* “My methodology is consistent with Koloth, Torghn, et al! You have brought dishonor on your house with this specious critique!”
*parries with my own batleth* “My methodology is consistent with Koloth, Torghn, et al! You have brought dishonor on your house with this specious critique!”
October 30, 2026 at 2:46 PM
“I disapprove of your statistical analysis methodology, you PETA’Q!” *swings batleth*
*parries with my own batleth* “My methodology is consistent with Koloth, Torghn, et al! You have brought dishonor on your house with this specious critique!”
*parries with my own batleth* “My methodology is consistent with Koloth, Torghn, et al! You have brought dishonor on your house with this specious critique!”
The better solution is to simply exclude pollsters who refuse to release methodology too.
October 31, 2026 at 7:06 PM
The better solution is to simply exclude pollsters who refuse to release methodology too.
Likewise.
If there is an AI crash, and there very well could be, I don't think it would prove his methodology right.
If there is an AI crash, and there very well could be, I don't think it would prove his methodology right.
October 30, 2026 at 11:25 AM
Likewise.
If there is an AI crash, and there very well could be, I don't think it would prove his methodology right.
If there is an AI crash, and there very well could be, I don't think it would prove his methodology right.
github.com/obra/superpowers and github.com/ovid/paad together work well for me flow is sp:brainstorm paad:pushback sp:write-plan paad:alignment sp:subagent-implementation - both have other useful skills in them but that is main flow
GitHub - obra/superpowers: An agentic skills framework & software development methodology that works.
An agentic skills framework & software development methodology that works. - obra/superpowers
github.com
November 1, 2026 at 9:33 PM
github.com/obra/superpowers and github.com/ovid/paad together work well for me flow is sp:brainstorm paad:pushback sp:write-plan paad:alignment sp:subagent-implementation - both have other useful skills in them but that is main flow
siena is probably the best pollster in the US. not always the most accurate but their methodology is grounded, measured, statistically sound, etc. and NYT poll team is very good.
Yesterday Cohn told us they saw some wacky raw numbers showing insane Dem leads and they decided to "deskew" em bc vibes
Yesterday Cohn told us they saw some wacky raw numbers showing insane Dem leads and they decided to "deskew" em bc vibes
November 3, 2026 at 1:40 AM
siena is probably the best pollster in the US. not always the most accurate but their methodology is grounded, measured, statistically sound, etc. and NYT poll team is very good.
Yesterday Cohn told us they saw some wacky raw numbers showing insane Dem leads and they decided to "deskew" em bc vibes
Yesterday Cohn told us they saw some wacky raw numbers showing insane Dem leads and they decided to "deskew" em bc vibes
Is it good when you describe your methodology as a choose your own adventure?
November 2, 2026 at 5:09 AM
Is it good when you describe your methodology as a choose your own adventure?
lol at it already
November 3, 2026 at 3:00 AM
lol at it already
Like the polls are the polls. The Times should explain its methodology but Healy is basically admitting that he's sensitive to whether right wing complainers will see it and "not trust it." It is an admission that is consistent with other's complaints that he's a ref being worked.
November 2, 2026 at 3:23 PM
Like the polls are the polls. The Times should explain its methodology but Healy is basically admitting that he's sensitive to whether right wing complainers will see it and "not trust it." It is an admission that is consistent with other's complaints that he's a ref being worked.
Right, exactly: the most useful issue polling is trendline polling - where you ask an identical question using the same methodology many times over a long period. Presidential approval, economic sentiment - there are a few topics that get this treatment.
But most of it is one-off.
But most of it is one-off.
It is probably possible to do issue polling that's at least somewhat meaningful (shifts in how the exact same wording gets answered over time are probably capturing something real, for instance)
But my *god* the vast majority of it is just air
But my *god* the vast majority of it is just air
November 2, 2026 at 2:45 AM
Right, exactly: the most useful issue polling is trendline polling - where you ask an identical question using the same methodology many times over a long period. Presidential approval, economic sentiment - there are a few topics that get this treatment.
But most of it is one-off.
But most of it is one-off.
every time I draw a real life man I happen to like from a tv show or movie I must turn off every impulse I have when I draw a cartoon big tiddy lady- it's an artistic pursuit driven by love but applying the complete opposite methodology
November 1, 2026 at 6:48 PM
every time I draw a real life man I happen to like from a tv show or movie I must turn off every impulse I have when I draw a cartoon big tiddy lady- it's an artistic pursuit driven by love but applying the complete opposite methodology
people, please check your halloween candy, I found a copy of Feyerabend's "Against Method" in a Snickers wrapper and children need a thorough grounding in philosophy of science before tackling critiques of absolute methodology
October 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM
people, please check your halloween candy, I found a copy of Feyerabend's "Against Method" in a Snickers wrapper and children need a thorough grounding in philosophy of science before tackling critiques of absolute methodology
what the hell is going on with Marist's methodology
October 27, 2026 at 4:08 AM
what the hell is going on with Marist's methodology
Is their methodology still ridiculous like it was in 2020?
November 2, 2026 at 9:34 PM
Is their methodology still ridiculous like it was in 2020?