Hyde T. Voltyge
@hydevoltyge.bsky.social
he/him
Virginian Wikipedia enthusiast
crosstab reader
I still support marginalized communities
I have only contempt for transphobes
vegan ace
Virginian Wikipedia enthusiast
crosstab reader
I still support marginalized communities
I have only contempt for transphobes
vegan ace
Pinned
Hyde T. Voltyge
@hydevoltyge.bsky.social
· Mar 17
😐 Hey @hydevoltyge.bsky.social! You're walking the middle path in your online conversations. Your sentiment score is -0.01 (perfectly balanced). Neither overly critical nor excessively sweet - the Switzerland of Bluesky!
I'm framing this
Washington Republican gerrymander using the 2020 presidential dataset, biggest Dem win I could find recently besides Insurance Commissioner lol, DRA did not have that
6 R - 4 D
WA-10 is D+67.7% (More northerly small central district)
6 R - 4 D
WA-10 is D+67.7% (More northerly small central district)
September 18, 2026 at 3:19 PM
Washington Republican gerrymander using the 2020 presidential dataset, biggest Dem win I could find recently besides Insurance Commissioner lol, DRA did not have that
6 R - 4 D
WA-10 is D+67.7% (More northerly small central district)
6 R - 4 D
WA-10 is D+67.7% (More northerly small central district)
national security is when Americans are sent overseas to die in illegal offensive wars in service of war crimes against schoolchildren, directed by the geniuses who shared their confdential gov Signal channel to a reporter
there is nothing secure about this
cheap gas or mass murder? tough one
there is nothing secure about this
cheap gas or mass murder? tough one
Roger Marshall: I'm sorry gas prices are going up but your national security is more important than your pocketbook
September 18, 2026 at 3:12 PM
national security is when Americans are sent overseas to die in illegal offensive wars in service of war crimes against schoolchildren, directed by the geniuses who shared their confdential gov Signal channel to a reporter
there is nothing secure about this
cheap gas or mass murder? tough one
there is nothing secure about this
cheap gas or mass murder? tough one
Reposted by Hyde T. Voltyge
What is happening on the ground per reports for the GOP seems nothing short of an apocalyptic event
Nobody wants to canvass from Michigan to Florida. The people who do are meeting angry voters and support evaporating
Nobody wants to canvass from Michigan to Florida. The people who do are meeting angry voters and support evaporating
September 18, 2026 at 3:03 PM
What is happening on the ground per reports for the GOP seems nothing short of an apocalyptic event
Nobody wants to canvass from Michigan to Florida. The people who do are meeting angry voters and support evaporating
Nobody wants to canvass from Michigan to Florida. The people who do are meeting angry voters and support evaporating
Reposted by Hyde T. Voltyge
Historically the out-party wins about 70% of races Cook calls toss-up at 45 days before the election.
September 18, 2026 at 2:42 PM
Historically the out-party wins about 70% of races Cook calls toss-up at 45 days before the election.
Reposted by Hyde T. Voltyge
New analysis: Expert handicappers like the Cook Political Report are probably underestimating Democratic odds of winning the House by about 30 points. That's based on an analysis of their historical ratings, not polls or other models.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-09-18...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-09-18...
The race raters are lowballing the Democrats
Based on my analysis of their historical ratings, Cook, Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball are probably underestimating Democrats' House win probability by about 30 percentage points
www.gelliottmorris.com
September 18, 2026 at 2:42 PM
New analysis: Expert handicappers like the Cook Political Report are probably underestimating Democratic odds of winning the House by about 30 points. That's based on an analysis of their historical ratings, not polls or other models.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-09-18...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-09-18...
Reposted by Hyde T. Voltyge
“Why D+13?”- 1) string of high quality polls from Economist/CBS/Marquette w/ D+11-13 GB leads
“But don’t polls overrate Dems?” - Not systematically. Further as Elliott Morris showed, A) recall vote weighting is biased towards GOP, B) Asking about individual candidates improves Dem margin by 3 pts
“But don’t polls overrate Dems?” - Not systematically. Further as Elliott Morris showed, A) recall vote weighting is biased towards GOP, B) Asking about individual candidates improves Dem margin by 3 pts
September 18, 2026 at 2:41 PM
“Why D+13?”- 1) string of high quality polls from Economist/CBS/Marquette w/ D+11-13 GB leads
“But don’t polls overrate Dems?” - Not systematically. Further as Elliott Morris showed, A) recall vote weighting is biased towards GOP, B) Asking about individual candidates improves Dem margin by 3 pts
“But don’t polls overrate Dems?” - Not systematically. Further as Elliott Morris showed, A) recall vote weighting is biased towards GOP, B) Asking about individual candidates improves Dem margin by 3 pts
GOP gerrymander of Michigan, constructed on the 2022 SecState election (Bluest election data in DRA in recent years)
8 R - 5 D
No districts flip at all on any datasets except for Obama's runs, 06 in 2012 and then all but 04 and 05 in 2008.
MI-12 is bluest in 2022, D+57.63%
8 R - 5 D
No districts flip at all on any datasets except for Obama's runs, 06 in 2012 and then all but 04 and 05 in 2008.
MI-12 is bluest in 2022, D+57.63%
September 18, 2026 at 2:38 PM
GOP gerrymander of Michigan, constructed on the 2022 SecState election (Bluest election data in DRA in recent years)
8 R - 5 D
No districts flip at all on any datasets except for Obama's runs, 06 in 2012 and then all but 04 and 05 in 2008.
MI-12 is bluest in 2022, D+57.63%
8 R - 5 D
No districts flip at all on any datasets except for Obama's runs, 06 in 2012 and then all but 04 and 05 in 2008.
MI-12 is bluest in 2022, D+57.63%
If I were running against Greg Abbott for Governor and diesel was at $5.98 a gallon, I'd be running ads about Greg "High Prices" Abbott
Very nicely suited to the existing cost of living issues too
Very nicely suited to the existing cost of living issues too
September 18, 2026 at 1:43 PM
If I were running against Greg Abbott for Governor and diesel was at $5.98 a gallon, I'd be running ads about Greg "High Prices" Abbott
Very nicely suited to the existing cost of living issues too
Very nicely suited to the existing cost of living issues too
Reposted by Hyde T. Voltyge
The NY Times is in “but her emails” mode regarding Abdul El-Sayed and Hasan Piker. Relentless and unfair. Where’s the big story about a Republican megadonor who is a white supremacist? Maybe NYT has heard of him. His name‘s Elon Musk.
September 17, 2026 at 9:23 PM
The NY Times is in “but her emails” mode regarding Abdul El-Sayed and Hasan Piker. Relentless and unfair. Where’s the big story about a Republican megadonor who is a white supremacist? Maybe NYT has heard of him. His name‘s Elon Musk.
Reposted by Hyde T. Voltyge
RFK Jr. wants people to get sick. He wants them to get sick and he thinks it is a good thing if they die, since those who live will have "natural immunity" and emerge stronger and fitter.
“On Thursday, Mr. Gorton said that “the success of the polio vaccine was a massive medical fraud” and that widespread vaccination was a “public health disaster.” He received a standing ovation…
Mr. Kennedy spoke next, linking arms with the group even as measles cases continue to rise”
Mr. Kennedy spoke next, linking arms with the group even as measles cases continue to rise”
RFK Jr. Assures Vaccine Skeptics They Have a ‘Friend at the White House’
The health secretary spoke at a conference featuring misinformation about vaccines, including a claim that the success of the polio vaccines was a “fraud.”
www.nytimes.com
September 18, 2026 at 12:37 PM
RFK Jr. wants people to get sick. He wants them to get sick and he thinks it is a good thing if they die, since those who live will have "natural immunity" and emerge stronger and fitter.
This was on my mind due to another conversation but this is a nice resource for checking if a sample size is adequate in polling
Many fewer respondents required for high populations than you might imagine!
www.research-advisors.com/tools/Sample...
Many fewer respondents required for high populations than you might imagine!
www.research-advisors.com/tools/Sample...
Sample Size Table
www.research-advisors.com
September 18, 2026 at 1:06 PM
This was on my mind due to another conversation but this is a nice resource for checking if a sample size is adequate in polling
Many fewer respondents required for high populations than you might imagine!
www.research-advisors.com/tools/Sample...
Many fewer respondents required for high populations than you might imagine!
www.research-advisors.com/tools/Sample...
Reposted by Hyde T. Voltyge
Part of what Mamdani is doing is explaining to people how government works. We've had 50 years of the GOP making sure it doesn't do anything but hurt and troll, while they yell that it's useless.
Mamdani is like "no, it's for fixing shit and making decisions" and
Mamdani is like "no, it's for fixing shit and making decisions" and
Surprised Pikachu Face - Mind Blown Meme
Alt: Surprised Pikachu Face - Mind Blown Meme
static.klipy.com
September 18, 2026 at 12:43 PM
Part of what Mamdani is doing is explaining to people how government works. We've had 50 years of the GOP making sure it doesn't do anything but hurt and troll, while they yell that it's useless.
Mamdani is like "no, it's for fixing shit and making decisions" and
Mamdani is like "no, it's for fixing shit and making decisions" and
Here are the Dem-endorsed candidates for Chesapeake's local elections (Early voting starts in Virginia today!)
As a sicko who follows this stuff and who remembers some of the past elections somewhat well... I think I *recognize* six of the ten lol
www.chesapeakedemocrats.com/democratic-c...
As a sicko who follows this stuff and who remembers some of the past elections somewhat well... I think I *recognize* six of the ten lol
www.chesapeakedemocrats.com/democratic-c...
Democratic Endorsed Candidates 2026 – Chesapeake Democratic Committee
National Candidates
www.chesapeakedemocrats.com
September 18, 2026 at 12:10 PM
Here are the Dem-endorsed candidates for Chesapeake's local elections (Early voting starts in Virginia today!)
As a sicko who follows this stuff and who remembers some of the past elections somewhat well... I think I *recognize* six of the ten lol
www.chesapeakedemocrats.com/democratic-c...
As a sicko who follows this stuff and who remembers some of the past elections somewhat well... I think I *recognize* six of the ten lol
www.chesapeakedemocrats.com/democratic-c...
I think Germany should've kept their nuclear plants!
That said, this will require a whole lot more solar and all now. I support nuclear but it isn't going to solve an acute shortage with any necessary speed
That said, this will require a whole lot more solar and all now. I support nuclear but it isn't going to solve an acute shortage with any necessary speed
SAUDI ARABIA INFORMS EUROPEAN OIL REFINERS THEY WILL NOT RECEIVE ANY CRUDE OIL NEXT MONTH.
September 18, 2026 at 11:58 AM
I think Germany should've kept their nuclear plants!
That said, this will require a whole lot more solar and all now. I support nuclear but it isn't going to solve an acute shortage with any necessary speed
That said, this will require a whole lot more solar and all now. I support nuclear but it isn't going to solve an acute shortage with any necessary speed
I'm seeing forecasts anywhere from 12.8% to 25.9% margin for Warner in VA-SEN this November lol
September 18, 2026 at 11:49 AM
I'm seeing forecasts anywhere from 12.8% to 25.9% margin for Warner in VA-SEN this November lol
Reposted by Hyde T. Voltyge
Again, there is clear evidence a data center moratorium would peel far more votes away from the GOP than the 10-15 (not thousand, literally 10-15 total) who might switch over this same crowd’s demand to betray queer people. It’s malpractice that the party won’t ditch these professional losers.
Fail. (Big piece on this tomorrow.) www.politico.com/news/2026/09...
Democratic advisers are warning their candidates not to go too hard at AI
Democratic consultants are warning their candidates in some key races not to lean into AI regulations out of fear that powerful tech groups could spend heavily against them.
www.politico.com
September 18, 2026 at 10:51 AM
Again, there is clear evidence a data center moratorium would peel far more votes away from the GOP than the 10-15 (not thousand, literally 10-15 total) who might switch over this same crowd’s demand to betray queer people. It’s malpractice that the party won’t ditch these professional losers.
TPSI has unfortunately done the only two polls of Virginia's US Senate race
And I know for a fact that the first one was done using a panel by the data harvesting scam service Pollfish
So there's basically complete junk to go on, pollster that makes things up using a fraudulent data source
And I know for a fact that the first one was done using a panel by the data harvesting scam service Pollfish
So there's basically complete junk to go on, pollster that makes things up using a fraudulent data source
Hey so just that we are keeping score here
TPSI has admitted to rigging their FL-GOV GOP primary polls, switching votes to Fishback from Collins.
So yeah I think it's fair to question all their output
MI average gets that much more accurate with an untrustworthy pollster removed.
TPSI has admitted to rigging their FL-GOV GOP primary polls, switching votes to Fishback from Collins.
So yeah I think it's fair to question all their output
MI average gets that much more accurate with an untrustworthy pollster removed.
MORE MI-SEN POLLING
More Abdul leads!
More Abdul leads!
September 18, 2026 at 11:20 AM
TPSI has unfortunately done the only two polls of Virginia's US Senate race
And I know for a fact that the first one was done using a panel by the data harvesting scam service Pollfish
So there's basically complete junk to go on, pollster that makes things up using a fraudulent data source
And I know for a fact that the first one was done using a panel by the data harvesting scam service Pollfish
So there's basically complete junk to go on, pollster that makes things up using a fraudulent data source
yeah I'm thinking Achilles gets around 40% for SEN in Idaho
that is hardly based on the bizarre poll last night but actually on the Peak Insights (R) Risch-sponsored poll last month, with what I think they did to skew the results
zero chance of breaking 45% etc. Safe R
that is hardly based on the bizarre poll last night but actually on the Peak Insights (R) Risch-sponsored poll last month, with what I think they did to skew the results
zero chance of breaking 45% etc. Safe R
September 18, 2026 at 10:53 AM
yeah I'm thinking Achilles gets around 40% for SEN in Idaho
that is hardly based on the bizarre poll last night but actually on the Peak Insights (R) Risch-sponsored poll last month, with what I think they did to skew the results
zero chance of breaking 45% etc. Safe R
that is hardly based on the bizarre poll last night but actually on the Peak Insights (R) Risch-sponsored poll last month, with what I think they did to skew the results
zero chance of breaking 45% etc. Safe R
Update: I have seen this firm did internal work for AZ-01 GOP candidate Joseph Chaplik several months ago
they were wrong. very wrong.
and there's another time it was used...
yeah so they had Rasner in MoE. he lost by 44. but it appears to be a GOP pollster
cowboystatedaily.com/2024/08/27/r...
they were wrong. very wrong.
and there's another time it was used...
yeah so they had Rasner in MoE. he lost by 44. but it appears to be a GOP pollster
cowboystatedaily.com/2024/08/27/r...
September 18, 2026 at 10:23 AM
Update: I have seen this firm did internal work for AZ-01 GOP candidate Joseph Chaplik several months ago
they were wrong. very wrong.
and there's another time it was used...
yeah so they had Rasner in MoE. he lost by 44. but it appears to be a GOP pollster
cowboystatedaily.com/2024/08/27/r...
they were wrong. very wrong.
and there's another time it was used...
yeah so they had Rasner in MoE. he lost by 44. but it appears to be a GOP pollster
cowboystatedaily.com/2024/08/27/r...
I will look at the crosstabs... But this is an independent pollster as far as I see. And wow is that a horrid number for an incumbent lol
I'm completely stunned, I had this Safe R, I'll have to consider if that needs to change based on these crosstabs.
I'm completely stunned, I had this Safe R, I'll have to consider if that needs to change based on these crosstabs.
September 18, 2026 at 3:40 AM
I will look at the crosstabs... But this is an independent pollster as far as I see. And wow is that a horrid number for an incumbent lol
I'm completely stunned, I had this Safe R, I'll have to consider if that needs to change based on these crosstabs.
I'm completely stunned, I had this Safe R, I'll have to consider if that needs to change based on these crosstabs.
Thinking about that statistic that Beto 2018 with Hispanic voters + Harris 2024 with white voters is enough for Blue Texas
Beto got within 2.56%... Harris lost by 13.68%. Harris lost over 10 points of margin statewide from Hispanic voters. Catastrophic. 64% Beto -> 55% Trump. Good thing that's over
Beto got within 2.56%... Harris lost by 13.68%. Harris lost over 10 points of margin statewide from Hispanic voters. Catastrophic. 64% Beto -> 55% Trump. Good thing that's over
September 18, 2026 at 3:19 AM
Thinking about that statistic that Beto 2018 with Hispanic voters + Harris 2024 with white voters is enough for Blue Texas
Beto got within 2.56%... Harris lost by 13.68%. Harris lost over 10 points of margin statewide from Hispanic voters. Catastrophic. 64% Beto -> 55% Trump. Good thing that's over
Beto got within 2.56%... Harris lost by 13.68%. Harris lost over 10 points of margin statewide from Hispanic voters. Catastrophic. 64% Beto -> 55% Trump. Good thing that's over
Reposted by Hyde T. Voltyge
anyway any Democrat treating these 50s-ass 'concerns' as legitimate or calling women men because of the sequence of how they identified deserve the same fate as Seth Moulton and it is our *duty* as cis allies to fight these battles
the idea that burly trans women might harm our delicate cis women or whatever is a direct fucking echo of the case for segregated athletics and ngl it concerns me how many cis people can't see that from the start bsky.app/profile/lith...
The analogy I go with is that nobody is stoking a panic over Dutch people in basketball despite them having a clear physiological advantage (taller on average)
September 18, 2026 at 1:49 AM
anyway any Democrat treating these 50s-ass 'concerns' as legitimate or calling women men because of the sequence of how they identified deserve the same fate as Seth Moulton and it is our *duty* as cis allies to fight these battles
Now how did Zogby manage to go from D+9 to now D+6 GCB lol
September 18, 2026 at 2:56 AM
Now how did Zogby manage to go from D+9 to now D+6 GCB lol
Fantastic. It would be a very good thing for policy in this country in a way that I hope my moderate friends can appreciate about AES as well for him to be a Senator: All four current physicians in the Senate are Republicans. How about a physician who cares about people writing bills on medicine?
Happy National Birth Center Week!
I look forward to continue working alongside birth centers like Birth Detroit and Birth Center Equity to build a future where every mom and baby survives child birth in our country.
I look forward to continue working alongside birth centers like Birth Detroit and Birth Center Equity to build a future where every mom and baby survives child birth in our country.
September 18, 2026 at 2:42 AM
Fantastic. It would be a very good thing for policy in this country in a way that I hope my moderate friends can appreciate about AES as well for him to be a Senator: All four current physicians in the Senate are Republicans. How about a physician who cares about people writing bills on medicine?
Okay the Two Steps From Hell - style backing soundtrack to the vocals was a shock to me and also really good
I have no idea if this is effective being three minutes but this is the best campaign music there's been in 25 years (You know what I'm thinking of before that)
I have no idea if this is effective being three minutes but this is the best campaign music there's been in 25 years (You know what I'm thinking of before that)
September 18, 2026 at 2:34 AM
Okay the Two Steps From Hell - style backing soundtrack to the vocals was a shock to me and also really good
I have no idea if this is effective being three minutes but this is the best campaign music there's been in 25 years (You know what I'm thinking of before that)
I have no idea if this is effective being three minutes but this is the best campaign music there's been in 25 years (You know what I'm thinking of before that)