I met OASDI at a house party
July 3, 2025 at 4:27 PM
I met OASDI at a house party
It's been 1 million+ annually for more than 30 years (barring a pandemic year or two). Think about how that factors into, for example, OASDI trust fund projections. Cutting off immigration is going to hit social security hard.
Net US immigration was zero or slightly negative last year, in important new estimates by @stanveuger.bsky.social et al.
The loss of labor cut GDP growth by about 0.2 percentage points.
The loss of labor cut GDP growth by about 0.2 percentage points.
Macroeconomic implications of immigration flows in 2025 and 2026: January 2026 update | Brookings
Wendy Edelberg, Stan Veuger, and Tara Watson review immigration flow trends in 2025 and 2026, and analyze their macroeconomic implications.
www.brookings.edu
January 14, 2026 at 12:36 PM
It's been 1 million+ annually for more than 30 years (barring a pandemic year or two). Think about how that factors into, for example, OASDI trust fund projections. Cutting off immigration is going to hit social security hard.
Most of it takes effect now, upon Trump signing it into law.
Nothing in the bill on SSDI. But the $6,000 "senior bonus" is going to have a huge hit on OASDI by lowering the threshold on the amount of FICA taxes collected.
It puts OASDI in an even more fragile place budgetarily.
Nothing in the bill on SSDI. But the $6,000 "senior bonus" is going to have a huge hit on OASDI by lowering the threshold on the amount of FICA taxes collected.
It puts OASDI in an even more fragile place budgetarily.
When will the bill's provisions take effect?
Is there anything in the bill that puts Social Security Disability Insurance at risk?
Is there anything in the bill that puts Social Security Disability Insurance at risk?
July 3, 2025 at 7:20 PM
Most of it takes effect now, upon Trump signing it into law.
Nothing in the bill on SSDI. But the $6,000 "senior bonus" is going to have a huge hit on OASDI by lowering the threshold on the amount of FICA taxes collected.
It puts OASDI in an even more fragile place budgetarily.
Nothing in the bill on SSDI. But the $6,000 "senior bonus" is going to have a huge hit on OASDI by lowering the threshold on the amount of FICA taxes collected.
It puts OASDI in an even more fragile place budgetarily.
Social Security= OASDI. Old age, survivors and disability insurance. It’s labeled like that on every paycheck. People lack basic understanding of taxation and benefits. It should be taught in high school imo.
April 10, 2025 at 10:59 PM
Social Security= OASDI. Old age, survivors and disability insurance. It’s labeled like that on every paycheck. People lack basic understanding of taxation and benefits. It should be taught in high school imo.
The Byrd rule has six provisions, only two of which are about being budgetary. The other four prongs are:
-stick within committee’s jurisdiction
-don’t exceed committee’s instruction
-no long-term deficits in title
-no OASDI changes
Senate Rs are planning to violate two of those four other prongs
-stick within committee’s jurisdiction
-don’t exceed committee’s instruction
-no long-term deficits in title
-no OASDI changes
Senate Rs are planning to violate two of those four other prongs
June 6, 2025 at 6:19 PM
The Byrd rule has six provisions, only two of which are about being budgetary. The other four prongs are:
-stick within committee’s jurisdiction
-don’t exceed committee’s instruction
-no long-term deficits in title
-no OASDI changes
Senate Rs are planning to violate two of those four other prongs
-stick within committee’s jurisdiction
-don’t exceed committee’s instruction
-no long-term deficits in title
-no OASDI changes
Senate Rs are planning to violate two of those four other prongs
OASDI on your paystubs.
April 11, 2025 at 3:04 AM
OASDI on your paystubs.
“Staffing at Social Security” is a literally insane way to try and cut government spending
Also if you know someone who doesn’t get their OASDI payment in the coming months shout that from the rooftops
Also if you know someone who doesn’t get their OASDI payment in the coming months shout that from the rooftops
SSA is in complete chaos. Buried in this article is a service worker noting that "the phone never stops ringing" and **retirement claims aren't being processed**. Hard to overstate the significance of that. End goal is to privatize the agency. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
DOGE is driving Social Security cuts and will make mistakes, acting head says privately
The Social Security Administration’s acting commissioner said members of Elon Musk’s cost-cutting team are outsiders who are unfamiliar with the nuances of the agency’s programs.
www.washingtonpost.com
March 6, 2025 at 2:35 PM
“Staffing at Social Security” is a literally insane way to try and cut government spending
Also if you know someone who doesn’t get their OASDI payment in the coming months shout that from the rooftops
Also if you know someone who doesn’t get their OASDI payment in the coming months shout that from the rooftops
Today, members of the Wisconsin Alliance joined Social Security employees, AFGE, and Social Security Workers United in Milwaukee to advocate for a fully-staffed SSA. Even with 20 °F and winds at 25 MPH, we'll never stop fighting for our benefits and will always stay #SocialSecurityStrong!
January 14, 2026 at 8:51 PM
Today, members of the Wisconsin Alliance joined Social Security employees, AFGE, and Social Security Workers United in Milwaukee to advocate for a fully-staffed SSA. Even with 20 °F and winds at 25 MPH, we'll never stop fighting for our benefits and will always stay #SocialSecurityStrong!
Kathleen has the deep dive on the threat to Social Security (OASDI, SSDI, SSI). Very informative.
#econsky #sociology
#econsky #sociology
We have a paper out this morning on the risk of significant damage to Social Security from actions taken by the Trump Administration and DOGE.
Here’s a summary 🧵
www.cbpp.org/research/soc...
Here’s a summary 🧵
www.cbpp.org/research/soc...
Trump Administration, DOGE Activities Risk SSA Operations and Security of Personal Data | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
The Trump Administration — including Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency — has taken actions that risk creating unprecedented delays, degraded customer service, and unnecessary barri...
www.cbpp.org
March 25, 2025 at 1:07 PM
Kathleen has the deep dive on the threat to Social Security (OASDI, SSDI, SSI). Very informative.
#econsky #sociology
#econsky #sociology
Read the OASDI annual reports, I have.
Social Security benefits are fully funded to pay out 100% until around 2032. Then, until 2098 they can pay 70%.
Disability fully funded until 2098.
Just needs a small adjustment not a huge change to fully fund until the 22nd Century!
Social Security benefits are fully funded to pay out 100% until around 2032. Then, until 2098 they can pay 70%.
Disability fully funded until 2098.
Just needs a small adjustment not a huge change to fully fund until the 22nd Century!
March 21, 2025 at 11:43 PM
Read the OASDI annual reports, I have.
Social Security benefits are fully funded to pay out 100% until around 2032. Then, until 2098 they can pay 70%.
Disability fully funded until 2098.
Just needs a small adjustment not a huge change to fully fund until the 22nd Century!
Social Security benefits are fully funded to pay out 100% until around 2032. Then, until 2098 they can pay 70%.
Disability fully funded until 2098.
Just needs a small adjustment not a huge change to fully fund until the 22nd Century!
I would simply roll unemployment insurance into the SSA and OASDI (adjusting the rate ofc) bc they are really tracking the same thing, right? (Also move the entire levy onto the employer and make social security fully taxable to harmonize treatment with pensions/401ks)
December 29, 2025 at 3:44 PM
I would simply roll unemployment insurance into the SSA and OASDI (adjusting the rate ofc) bc they are really tracking the same thing, right? (Also move the entire levy onto the employer and make social security fully taxable to harmonize treatment with pensions/401ks)
It has NOTHING to do with the debt or deficit. It is an insurance program. It is funded by through payroll taxes by employees and employers.
The real name of the program is Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI), not Social Security.
The real name of the program is Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI), not Social Security.
February 10, 2025 at 2:09 PM
It has NOTHING to do with the debt or deficit. It is an insurance program. It is funded by through payroll taxes by employees and employers.
The real name of the program is Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI), not Social Security.
The real name of the program is Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI), not Social Security.
Every year the Social Security Trustees report on the fiscal health of the program, including the Trust Funds. It always gets media attention. I can't believe these people are in charge. www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2024/
March 14, 2025 at 7:17 PM
Every year the Social Security Trustees report on the fiscal health of the program, including the Trust Funds. It always gets media attention. I can't believe these people are in charge. www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2024/
"I find that a 10% decrease in field office employees in a county led to a 0.06% decrease in benefits enrollment for OASDI and 0.32% decrease in supplemental security insurance (SSI) enrollment, driven primarily by disability beneficiaries and low-income old-age SSI beneficiaries."
March 6, 2025 at 3:10 PM
"I find that a 10% decrease in field office employees in a county led to a 0.06% decrease in benefits enrollment for OASDI and 0.32% decrease in supplemental security insurance (SSI) enrollment, driven primarily by disability beneficiaries and low-income old-age SSI beneficiaries."
3/?
“Taxes are bad.”
LISV see no connection between govt revenue and govt services. AFAICT this also applies to OASDI taxes which are often printed right on the paycheck.
Lemma to this heuristic: getting out of paying taxes is good. Thus billionaires that get out of paying taxes are good.
“Taxes are bad.”
LISV see no connection between govt revenue and govt services. AFAICT this also applies to OASDI taxes which are often printed right on the paycheck.
Lemma to this heuristic: getting out of paying taxes is good. Thus billionaires that get out of paying taxes are good.
August 8, 2026 at 3:03 PM
3/?
“Taxes are bad.”
LISV see no connection between govt revenue and govt services. AFAICT this also applies to OASDI taxes which are often printed right on the paycheck.
Lemma to this heuristic: getting out of paying taxes is good. Thus billionaires that get out of paying taxes are good.
“Taxes are bad.”
LISV see no connection between govt revenue and govt services. AFAICT this also applies to OASDI taxes which are often printed right on the paycheck.
Lemma to this heuristic: getting out of paying taxes is good. Thus billionaires that get out of paying taxes are good.
In this chapter, the regime notifies its subjects that Social Security and Medicare are unsustainable because payroll taxes don't adequately cover it - when OASDI tax touches not one dollar of income over $176,100, nor capital gains.
.. and that they need to cut corporate taxes.
.. and that they need to cut corporate taxes.
March 9, 2025 at 4:58 PM
In this chapter, the regime notifies its subjects that Social Security and Medicare are unsustainable because payroll taxes don't adequately cover it - when OASDI tax touches not one dollar of income over $176,100, nor capital gains.
.. and that they need to cut corporate taxes.
.. and that they need to cut corporate taxes.
Medicare a Social Security are insurance programs funded by payroll taxes. They have nothing to do with the debt and deficit.
The official name for SS is OASDI, Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance.
The official name for SS is OASDI, Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance.
March 8, 2025 at 3:14 PM
Medicare a Social Security are insurance programs funded by payroll taxes. They have nothing to do with the debt and deficit.
The official name for SS is OASDI, Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance.
The official name for SS is OASDI, Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance.
Here are the ACTUAL figures, please repost: www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/O...
Social Security Beneficiary Statistics
Number of beneficiaries receiving OASDI benefits
www.ssa.gov
February 17, 2025 at 5:09 PM
Here are the ACTUAL figures, please repost: www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/O...
Fun Fact: While the Byrd Rule prevents changes to "social security" in budget reconciliation that applies to OASDI (Title II) not SSI (Title XVI), meaning that SSI reform is fair game for next years tax TCJA expiration legislative battle.
As part of my work, I have resolved to draw attention to the millions of people living with disabilities who have been left behind by America's safety net. This piece on the Roosevelt Forward blog is on SSI, a forgotten program in dire need of reform.
www.firesidestacks.com/p/50-years-i...
www.firesidestacks.com/p/50-years-i...
50 Years In, Most SSI Recipients Live in Poverty. That’s a Policy Choice.
Fifty years ago, the Social Security Administration’s Supplemental Security Income launched with the goal of offering aid to adults and children with disabilities, and to older adults with little to n...
www.firesidestacks.com
October 11, 2024 at 2:24 PM
Fun Fact: While the Byrd Rule prevents changes to "social security" in budget reconciliation that applies to OASDI (Title II) not SSI (Title XVI), meaning that SSI reform is fair game for next years tax TCJA expiration legislative battle.
マイノリティにはとことん冷たい…っていうか、税金として徴収されたもの（米国在住者の場合、OASDIという税で取られてる）、かつまだ受け取ってないものに対して全額課税するとか無茶苦茶すぎるんだけど、「あいつらならいくら殴っても殴り返してこないからやっちまえ」の精神でやってるんだろうね。
February 25, 2026 at 9:33 PM
マイノリティにはとことん冷たい…っていうか、税金として徴収されたもの（米国在住者の場合、OASDIという税で取られてる）、かつまだ受け取ってないものに対して全額課税するとか無茶苦茶すぎるんだけど、「あいつらならいくら殴っても殴り返してこないからやっちまえ」の精神でやってるんだろうね。
It's actually insurance. OASDI = Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance. Pays out if you become disabled, orphaned, widowed, or so old that work threatens your health. Everyone is at risk of crippling injury or getting old, so everyone pays in.
December 6, 2024 at 2:32 AM
It's actually insurance. OASDI = Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance. Pays out if you become disabled, orphaned, widowed, or so old that work threatens your health. Everyone is at risk of crippling injury or getting old, so everyone pays in.
Key items not allowed:
Does not produce a change in outlays or revenues, or the changes are merely incidental
Falls outside the jurisdiction of the committee that submitted it
Increases the deficit beyond the yrs covered by the instructions
Changes to Social Security (OASDI) programs
2/6
Does not produce a change in outlays or revenues, or the changes are merely incidental
Falls outside the jurisdiction of the committee that submitted it
Increases the deficit beyond the yrs covered by the instructions
Changes to Social Security (OASDI) programs
2/6
May 28, 2025 at 12:25 AM
Key items not allowed:
Does not produce a change in outlays or revenues, or the changes are merely incidental
Falls outside the jurisdiction of the committee that submitted it
Increases the deficit beyond the yrs covered by the instructions
Changes to Social Security (OASDI) programs
2/6
Does not produce a change in outlays or revenues, or the changes are merely incidental
Falls outside the jurisdiction of the committee that submitted it
Increases the deficit beyond the yrs covered by the instructions
Changes to Social Security (OASDI) programs
2/6
My current mission is to write about and draw useful lessons from this chart for a non-wonk audience. Probable not good that I started off thinking about integrals.
September 9, 2025 at 4:02 PM
My current mission is to write about and draw useful lessons from this chart for a non-wonk audience. Probable not good that I started off thinking about integrals.
The official name of Social Security is OASDI (Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance).
It's an INSURANCE program (so is Medicare) paid through a separate payroll tax.
Both Medicare and OASDI have surplus funds. These programs have nothing to do with the debt or deficit.
It's an INSURANCE program (so is Medicare) paid through a separate payroll tax.
Both Medicare and OASDI have surplus funds. These programs have nothing to do with the debt or deficit.
March 12, 2025 at 4:58 AM
The official name of Social Security is OASDI (Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance).
It's an INSURANCE program (so is Medicare) paid through a separate payroll tax.
Both Medicare and OASDI have surplus funds. These programs have nothing to do with the debt or deficit.
It's an INSURANCE program (so is Medicare) paid through a separate payroll tax.
Both Medicare and OASDI have surplus funds. These programs have nothing to do with the debt or deficit.