Poland’s economy is expected to grow 3% in 2027, up from a previous forecast of 2.9%, although growth will slow from 3.5% this year as investment loses momentum, Fitch Ratings said.

Poland is facing a growing demographic challenge as the ratio of non-working individuals to employed persons continues to rise.

Reading of outlook for Poland’s manufacturing sector remains negative

Investing.com -- Fitch Ratings revised Poland’s credit outlook to Negative from Stable on Friday, while affirming the country’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at ’A-’. The move underscores growing concerns around fiscal slippage and political headwinds that are expected to complicate efforts to rein in public debt in the coming years. The ratings agency cited deteriorating public finances and rising deficits as key drivers behind the revised outlook. Fitch now projects deficits to average 6.7% of GDP between 2024 and 2025, as Poland contends with rising expenditures on public wages, pensions, defense, and debt servicing. Official data show the fiscal deficit in 2024 widened to 6.6% of GDP, overshooting both the government’s target of 5.7% and Fitch’s earlier forecast of 6.2%. Government spending rose to nearly 50% of GDP, up from 43.6% in 2021, driven by rigid expenditure commitments and mounting military allocations. Looking ahead, the deficit is projected to stay elevated, at 6.9% in 2025 and 6.8% in 2026, well above the ’A’ median level of 2.9%. Even with measures such as freezing income tax thresholds and moderating future salary growth, Fitch expects only marginal deficit reduction through 2027. General government debt is forecast to rise sharply, reaching 68.3% of GDP by 2027, compared with 49.5% in 2023. “We expect Poland’s interest payments to rise from 5.1% of government revenues in 2024 to 7.2% in 2027,” Fitch said, pointing to high future financing needs and continued primary deficits. Political dynamics further complicate the outlook, with increased veto activity from President Karol Nawrocki and resistance to fiscal tightening. The impasse within the coalition government has already derailed attempts at tax reform, and upcoming elections in 2027 are expected to limit appetite for austerity measures. 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. Despite fiscal pressures, Poland continues to benefit from resilient macroeconomic fundamentals and a robust external position. Fitch forecasts real GDP growth to average 3.2% in both 2025 and 2026, outpacing peers, supported by domestic demand and increased absorption of EU funds. External buffers also remain strong, with international reserves expected to reach $249 billion by year-end, covering more than five months of external payments. However, Fitch warned that without a credible adjustment plan, Poland’s debt trajectory could compromise future rating stability. The best opportunities often hide in plain sight—buried among thousands of stocks you'd never have time to research individually. That's why smart investors use our Stock Screener with 50+ predefined screens and 160+ customizable filters to surface hidden gems instantly. For example, the Piotroski's Picks method averages 23% annual returns by focusing on financial strength, and you can get it as a standalone screen. Momentum Masters catches stocks gaining serious traction, while Blue-Chip Bargains finds undervalued giants. With screens for dividends, growth, value, and more, you'll discover opportunities others miss. Our current favorite screen is Under $10/share, which is great for discovering stocks trading under $10 with recent price momentum showing some very impressive returns!

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Investing.com -- The introduction of new tariffs by the United States could potentially slow the growth of the Polish economy, according to Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk. He expressed his concerns last Thursday, stating that the economic growth of the country could experience a decrease of 0.4% as a result of these tariffs. Tusk provided a preliminary assessment, indicating that the new U.S. tariffs might lead to a reduction in the Polish Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 0.4%. He further added that the economic loss could exceed 10 billion zlotys ($2.63 billion). The prime minister shared this information through a post on the X. The new tariffs imposed by the United States are expected to have a significant impact on various economies around the world, including Poland. The potential economic loss for Poland, as stated by Prime Minister Tusk, is a substantial amount, indicating the severity of the impact of these tariffs on the country’s economy. This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

WARSAW (Reuters) - Average annual inflation in Poland will amount to 4.1% in 2025, and it will then slow to 3.2% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, according to forecasts published on Monday in the central bank macroeconomic survey. Inflation stood at 4.9% year-on-year in March, statistics office data showed. The experts surveyed also expect a slowdown in the pace of economic activity in 2026-2027, and the central forecast predicted that gross domestic product growth would amount to 3.3% and 3.1% respectively, compared with 3.5% in 2025. "Respondents to the macroeconomic survey expect the average annual NBP reference rate to be between 5.35% and 5.71% this year, with the central forecast being 5.57%," the National Bank of Poland said in the report. In 2026, according to the central forecast, it is expected to be 4.52%, and 3.74% in 2027. The main reference interest rate has remained at 5.75% since October 2023. The MPC meets this week and will announce its decision on Wednesday, but none of the analysts surveyed by Reuters expects an interest rate cut in April. The some MPC members said that the easing of monetary policy might begin in the second half of the year, after the publication of the central bank’s inflation projection in July. The March round of the macroeconomic survey was conducted between March 13 and 25, 2025. Twenty-two external experts representing financial institutions, analytical and research centres, as well as business and employee organizations, took part, the NBP reported.