Oil shipments from the Persian Gulf are recovering toward prewar levels as U.S.-protected tankers resume voyages through the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran faces pressure from an American naval blockade, according to analysts and U.S. officials cited by the New York Post.

"Hormuz is no longer behaving like a chokepoint under effective Iranian control."

The oil is flowing again in the Persian Gulf — even as Iran is choking…

Iran's grip on oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz is weakening as the US Navy and Gulf producers get better at repelling attacks, according to The Wall Street Journal. Regional crude exports have rebounded to near-prewar levels while Tehran's own stockpiles dwindle, raising fears it could resort to renewed military escalation to regain leverage in talks with Washington. The post Iran's oil stockpile nears empty as US-led Hormuz blockade holds appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.

The oil is flowing again in the Persian Gulf — even as Iran is choking on fumes. Oil exports from the region have rebounded to 72% of pre-war levels and cr

Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have reached nearly prewar levels, with daily shipments averaging over 13 million barrels, according to analysts. This increase comes as US naval forces continue to s… · Photo : A.Davey · CC BY · Flickr

Oil flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz is on the rise as ships confidently sail under US protection — with the Persian Gulf’s crude exports reaching an average of more than 13 million barrel…

Crude oil exports from key Middle ‌East producers rebounded in September to 12.8 million barrels per day, the highest since the US-Israeli war with Iran started in February, data from Kpler showed on ...

The U.S. says it controls the Strait of Hormuz, but shipping remains far below prewar levels. As sanctions squeeze Iran, both sides believe time is on their side – a calculation that could prolong the...

If you think your energy costs are high now, the situation may be about to get a whole lot worse. With traffic in the Strait of Hormuz – normally the primary route for oil leaving the Middle East – hovering below 15% of prewar levels, oil prices have increased from US$65 a barrel before the conflict in Iran began in February 2026 to more than $100 a barrel in mid-September. When the U.S. and Israel first attacked Iran, analysts feared prices would soon reach $150 or even $200 a barrel. That hasn’t happened yet. But seven months into the conflict, with no clear end in sight, the global oil market has now largely exhausted the safety measures that exist to keep a lid on petroleum prices. As researchers who study the relationship between energy and national security, we have been following these dynamics throughout the conflict, and the oil market is now showing signs that significant price hikes – and perhaps even shortages – may be on the way. The squeeze tightens Some oil has been able to make it out of the Persian Gulf despite the closure of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia increased output via its East-West pipeline, which runs...

Oil-related prices are high, but poised to go even higher. Afry Harvy/iStock / Getty Images Plus If you think your energy costs are high now, the situation may be about to get a whole lot worse. With traffic in the Strait of Hormuz – normally the primary route for oil leaving the Middle East – hovering below 15% of prewar levels , oil prices have increased from US$65 a barrel before the conflict in Iran began in February 2026 to more than $100 a barrel in mid-September. When the U.S. and Israel first attacked Iran, analysts feared prices would soon reach $150 or even $200 a barrel. That hasn’t happened yet. But seven months into the conflict, with no clear end in sight, the global oil market has now largely exhausted the safety measures that exist to keep a lid on petroleum prices. As researchers who study the relationship between energy and national security , we have been following these dynamics throughout the conflict, and the oil market is now showing signs that significant price hikes – and perhaps even shortages – may be on the way. The squeeze tightens Some oil has been able to make it out of the Persian Gulf despite the closure of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia increased output via its East-West pipeline , which runs from Abqaiq on the Persian Gulf overland to Yanbu on the coast of the Red Sea. At full capacity, that pipeline can carry as much as 7 million barrels per day , although only about 4 million to 5 million barrels per day are typically exported. But attacks on the pipeline in mid-September that Saudi Arabia blames on Iran-backed militias based in Iraq forced the Saudis to temporarily halt oil shipments through that pipeline. The pipeline has now restarted operations at very low volumes, but it will likely take at least six to eight weeks to regain full capacity. Even this short cessation has tightened already constrained oil markets, and the threat of further Houthi attacks on Red Sea oil exports will only add to inflationary pressures. Saudi Arabia has options for oil exports, but interruptions in supply affect global markets. Murat Usubali/Anadolu via Getty Images Meanwhile, in Russia, Ukrainian drone attacks have damaged refineries , reducing Russian production of diesel fuel and prompting the country to ban exports of it . That has removed another 3% of the global daily supply of diesel, an important fuel for trucking and shipping . When diesel costs go up, the result is inflation in the cost of goods across the global economy. Feeling the pinch In the U.S., 47 states experienced record-high diesel prices on Sept. 22, with the national average reaching $6.52 per gallon. The high prices prompted President Donald Trump to threaten to ban diesel exports , a move analysts suggest would make matters worse by accentuating global supply shortages and driving world prices upward . Beyond diesel, motor oil prices have quadrupled , and supply shortages are starting to take hold. For instance, Costco has almost doubled its prices for motor oil and has limited the amount customers can buy. The upshot from all this is that Americans are spending a lot more on fuel in 2026 as compared to 2025. Between March 1 and late September, Americans spent an additional $72 billion on gasoline compared to the same period a year ago, as well as $45 billion more on diesel. That’s $117 billion in additional fuel costs, above and beyond the costs of the war itself, which the Pentagon estimated at $45 billion as of early September. These shocks are even more acute outside the United States, which is the world’s largest energy producer. South and Southeast Asian countries, which were more reliant on imports from the Persian Gulf than the United States, were hit hard soon after the war broke out. Some of them have had to ration fuel , while others enacted emergency measures like shortening the work or school week to reduce fuel use . These challenges are now hitting Europe hard as well. On Sept. 20, some 15% of French service stations had reportedly run out of either diesel or gas . Limited tools left The international community has already taken most of the measures available to curb oil demand and boost its supply. Those moves have reduced the scale of oil price increases, but they did not prevent them entirely. Now, the toolbox is largely empty, leaving prices on the brink of spiking again. In March 2026, a coordinated effort among 32 countries released more than 400 million barrels of oil into the global market from those countries’ strategic reserves. Those stockpiles are now substantially depleted, and it is not clear how much additional oil that countries will be willing or even able to release as the war continues. Since the war began, the United States alone has released 130 million barrels , leaving its reserves at a 40-year low . The U.S. may not be able to release much more without compromising the structural integrity of the salt caverns where the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is stored. The role of China China has played the largest role in containing global oil prices to date by releasing official reserves as well as what now seem to be massive additional reserves not previously disclosed to the public . The country reduced its crude oil imports by nearly 50% between February and June 2026. The increased electrification of the Chinese economy played a key role in reducing Chinese demand for oil during this period. More than 60% of new passenger car sales in China are electric vehicles or plug-in hybrids, and 30% of its heavy truck sales are now electric. China has worked very hard over many years to boost the number of electric cars on the country’s roads. CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images Overall, China’s electrification of its transport sector allowed it to reduce oil consumption by 1.35 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026. Other countries are looking to China for help as well. The country’s international sales of electric vehicles, batteries and solar panels have skyrocketed , as other countries seek to insulate themselves from oil market shocks. Less encouragingly when it comes to greenhouse gas emissions, China has used more coal to offset oil demand and as an alternative means of petrochemical production as well. Of perhaps more immediate concern, China’s oil demand is now starting to creep up again, with crude imports rising 6.2% in August 2026 as compared with the previous month. Even if its imports don’t reach prewar levels any time soon, increased Chinese demand, coupled with a tighter oil market, may result in additional price hikes over the next few weeks. China still has about four to six months of stockpiles, including commercial and strategic reserves, but Beijing may soon seek to gradually restock its inventories , although the Chinese may postpone these purchases if prices continue to soar. In France, lines at gas stations in 2026 are similar to 1970s lines in the U.S., with customers lining up in hope of getting fuel before it runs out. Romain Gautier/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images A look ahead Sustained conflict in Iran – itself a major oil producer – continued disruptions of oil shipments in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran-linked militias’ disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea could mean the reemergence of the nightmare scenarios analysts envisioned when the fighting began. It’s not clear if that would translate into simply much higher prices at the pump or turn into 1970s-style shortages , where there’s not enough fuel available at any price and lines stretch around the block at gas stations. With the 2026 midterm elections looming, the White House will want to avoid that scenario at all costs. But the Trump administration has already released large amounts from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and has rejected policies that would have reduced oil demand, such as stricter fuel economy standards or incentives for electric vehicle adoption. At this point, Trump has relatively few options available to blunt new price shocks, the effects of which may be visible not just at the pump but also at the ballot box. Joshua Busby is affiliated with the Center for Climate and Security and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Greg Pollock is affiliated with Georgetown University and the Center for Climate and Security.

"Hormuz is no longer behaving like a chokepoint under effective Iranian control."

Egypt's intelligence chief, Abbas Kamel, phoned Netanyahu directly with a warning just days before the Oct 7 Hamas attack, according to Arab government officials cited by The Wall Street Journal. The disclosure adds to a growing list of overlooked cautions reaching Netanyahu before the assault that killed roughly 1,200 people. With Israeli elections approaching, the report has intensified debate over the premier's prewar conduct. The post Egypt warned Netanyahu days before Oct 7 attack; Prime Minister's Office denies claim appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.