What is the probability that two closet cases would wind up talking about another man's ass? Yes, 100%!
November 2, 2026 at 6:03 PM
What is the probability that two closet cases would wind up talking about another man's ass? Yes, 100%!
The same Marty O’Donell who is going to get CRUSHED in his race
October 30, 2026 at 10:27 PM
The same Marty O’Donell who is going to get CRUSHED in his race
With high probability, if you’re reading this, you’re closer to space than to Belgium.
October 31, 2026 at 9:57 PM
With high probability, if you’re reading this, you’re closer to space than to Belgium.
i am convinced this is normal exponential decay, it is the probability that you have directly noticed something he is doing directly causing you a problem in your life
One of the claims I keep seeing is "nobody minded Trump until gas prices went up" and certainly that marginal voter exists, but on the whole that is not quite right - after an initial crash, his numbers have ticked down at a steady, regular rate.
People started losing patience before gas prices.
People started losing patience before gas prices.
November 2, 2026 at 2:48 AM
i am convinced this is normal exponential decay, it is the probability that you have directly noticed something he is doing directly causing you a problem in your life
EVERCORE:
“.. Our updated 60% probability that Democrats take the Senate is split between a 40% chance of a precarious 51-seat majority and a 20% chance of 52+ seats.”
“.. Our updated 60% probability that Democrats take the Senate is split between a 40% chance of a precarious 51-seat majority and a 20% chance of 52+ seats.”
October 30, 2026 at 9:25 PM
EVERCORE:
“.. Our updated 60% probability that Democrats take the Senate is split between a 40% chance of a precarious 51-seat majority and a 20% chance of 52+ seats.”
“.. Our updated 60% probability that Democrats take the Senate is split between a 40% chance of a precarious 51-seat majority and a 20% chance of 52+ seats.”
3/ So it's a question of which poison you pick: (a) Lower probability of discovering a job to apply to; higher probability of speaking to a person (b) Higher probability of discovering a job to apply to; lower probability of speaking to a person.
I don't know which one is worse
I don't know which one is worse
October 31, 2026 at 12:19 AM
3/ So it's a question of which poison you pick: (a) Lower probability of discovering a job to apply to; higher probability of speaking to a person (b) Higher probability of discovering a job to apply to; lower probability of speaking to a person.
I don't know which one is worse
I don't know which one is worse
This and people not understanding probability both drive me insane.
November 2, 2026 at 2:48 AM
This and people not understanding probability both drive me insane.
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE (11/2): Kansas
Democrat Adam Hamilton is now narrowly favored to win.
Our forecast gives Hamilton a 51% win probability. Democrats have not won a Senate race in Kansas since 1932.
Democrat Adam Hamilton is now narrowly favored to win.
Our forecast gives Hamilton a 51% win probability. Democrats have not won a Senate race in Kansas since 1932.
November 2, 2026 at 5:48 PM
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE (11/2): Kansas
Democrat Adam Hamilton is now narrowly favored to win.
Our forecast gives Hamilton a 51% win probability. Democrats have not won a Senate race in Kansas since 1932.
Democrat Adam Hamilton is now narrowly favored to win.
Our forecast gives Hamilton a 51% win probability. Democrats have not won a Senate race in Kansas since 1932.
It would be fun to assign a probability on each one of those conditionals.
November 2, 2026 at 5:59 PM
It would be fun to assign a probability on each one of those conditionals.
It is insane how Nebraska has managed to find itself on the wrong side of every slim probability it encounters for nearly two decades.
November 1, 2026 at 3:21 AM
It is insane how Nebraska has managed to find itself on the wrong side of every slim probability it encounters for nearly two decades.
Dohrmann, her voice steady again: Given the totality of circumstances, there is not fair probability that any false statement was made...thank you.
She returns to the defense table.
She returns to the defense table.
October 29, 2026 at 9:01 PM
Dohrmann, her voice steady again: Given the totality of circumstances, there is not fair probability that any false statement was made...thank you.
She returns to the defense table.
She returns to the defense table.
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE (10/29): Senate
Kansas: Leans R -> Toss Up
Democrats now have a 60% probability of winning control of the Senate; our forecast gives Democrats the advantage in 52 seats.
Democrats are forecasted to flip Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.
Kansas: Leans R -> Toss Up
Democrats now have a 60% probability of winning control of the Senate; our forecast gives Democrats the advantage in 52 seats.
Democrats are forecasted to flip Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.
October 29, 2026 at 3:00 PM
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE (10/29): Senate
Kansas: Leans R -> Toss Up
Democrats now have a 60% probability of winning control of the Senate; our forecast gives Democrats the advantage in 52 seats.
Democrats are forecasted to flip Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.
Kansas: Leans R -> Toss Up
Democrats now have a 60% probability of winning control of the Senate; our forecast gives Democrats the advantage in 52 seats.
Democrats are forecasted to flip Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.
The probability for 40 °C threshold was found to be 0.53 % in the 2025 climate, which is a 1-in-190-year event.
The odds for a new Fennoscandian all-time record, 38.0 °C, was higher: only 4.0% (25 year return period) in the current climate.
These are not negligible probabilities.
The odds for a new Fennoscandian all-time record, 38.0 °C, was higher: only 4.0% (25 year return period) in the current climate.
These are not negligible probabilities.
November 2, 2026 at 7:35 AM
The probability for 40 °C threshold was found to be 0.53 % in the 2025 climate, which is a 1-in-190-year event.
The odds for a new Fennoscandian all-time record, 38.0 °C, was higher: only 4.0% (25 year return period) in the current climate.
These are not negligible probabilities.
The odds for a new Fennoscandian all-time record, 38.0 °C, was higher: only 4.0% (25 year return period) in the current climate.
These are not negligible probabilities.
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE (10/29): House
FL-4: Likely-R → Lean R
NY-17: Tossup → Lean D
PA-1: Lean R → Tossup
Democrats have an 80% probability of winning the House, with a forecasted total of 238 seats. 10 seats remain Tossups.
218 seats are needed for a majority.
FL-4: Likely-R → Lean R
NY-17: Tossup → Lean D
PA-1: Lean R → Tossup
Democrats have an 80% probability of winning the House, with a forecasted total of 238 seats. 10 seats remain Tossups.
218 seats are needed for a majority.
October 29, 2026 at 4:01 PM
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE (10/29): House
FL-4: Likely-R → Lean R
NY-17: Tossup → Lean D
PA-1: Lean R → Tossup
Democrats have an 80% probability of winning the House, with a forecasted total of 238 seats. 10 seats remain Tossups.
218 seats are needed for a majority.
FL-4: Likely-R → Lean R
NY-17: Tossup → Lean D
PA-1: Lean R → Tossup
Democrats have an 80% probability of winning the House, with a forecasted total of 238 seats. 10 seats remain Tossups.
218 seats are needed for a majority.
Bayes tells us crashouts of this magnitude increase probability of a substance problem
November 2, 2026 at 2:53 AM
Bayes tells us crashouts of this magnitude increase probability of a substance problem
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE (10/31): House
Democrats have an 83% probability of winning the House and are now favored in 241 seats, with 13 Tossups remaining.
Democratic odds continue to improve as Election Day approaches.
Democrats have an 83% probability of winning the House and are now favored in 241 seats, with 13 Tossups remaining.
Democratic odds continue to improve as Election Day approaches.
October 31, 2026 at 5:37 PM
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE (10/31): House
Democrats have an 83% probability of winning the House and are now favored in 241 seats, with 13 Tossups remaining.
Democratic odds continue to improve as Election Day approaches.
Democrats have an 83% probability of winning the House and are now favored in 241 seats, with 13 Tossups remaining.
Democratic odds continue to improve as Election Day approaches.
Was screaming, crying, begging the faithfuls to banish someone else knowing they had a Traitor in the bag, do these people not understand probability!
The James Acaster twist completely melted my brain #CelebrityTraitors
October 29, 2026 at 10:03 PM
Was screaming, crying, begging the faithfuls to banish someone else knowing they had a Traitor in the bag, do these people not understand probability!
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE (11/2): House
Democrats now have an 84% probability of winning control of the House, their highest point of the cycle.
Our forecast expects Democrats to win 241 seats. 218 seats are needed for a majority.
Democrats now have an 84% probability of winning control of the House, their highest point of the cycle.
Our forecast expects Democrats to win 241 seats. 218 seats are needed for a majority.
November 2, 2026 at 3:18 PM
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE (11/2): House
Democrats now have an 84% probability of winning control of the House, their highest point of the cycle.
Our forecast expects Democrats to win 241 seats. 218 seats are needed for a majority.
Democrats now have an 84% probability of winning control of the House, their highest point of the cycle.
Our forecast expects Democrats to win 241 seats. 218 seats are needed for a majority.
Dohrmann goes over the probable cause standard. There must be fair probability that a crime occurred, not mere suspicion or reasonable suspicion. Has to be probable that a crime occurred. That standard not met here.
October 29, 2026 at 8:04 PM
Dohrmann goes over the probable cause standard. There must be fair probability that a crime occurred, not mere suspicion or reasonable suspicion. Has to be probable that a crime occurred. That standard not met here.
high probability this backfires even more spectacularly on the trumpist wing of the GOP in AK
October 31, 2026 at 7:51 PM
high probability this backfires even more spectacularly on the trumpist wing of the GOP in AK
October 30, 2026 at 8:34 AM