India has become the diesel supplier of last resort, and Reliance's Jamnagar complex shipped more of the fuel in October than in any month for a year and a half. Reliance Industries (NSE: RELIANCE) loaded an estimated 541,000 barrels per day (bpd) of diesel and gasoil for export in October, up from about 483,000 bpd in September and 322,000 bpd in June, according to Kpler ship-tracking figures published by The New Indian Express on October 29. That took the Mumbai-based group's diesel shipments to an 18-month high, and India's national total reached 700,000 bpd, the most since September 2025, according to Sumit Ritolia, lead refining analyst at Kpler. Reliance's estimated diesel and gasoil exports, thousand bpd, 2026. Source: Kpler ship-tracking estimates, reported by The New Indian Express, October 29, 2026. IntelliNews India is capturing a larger refining margin as fuel supply tightens across several major producing regions. The Iran war that began on February 28 choked Gulf product flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and the International Energy Agency estimates the region's diesel exports fell from about 1.6mn bpd before the war to roughly 400,000 bpd by August. Ukrainian drones have knocked a large share of Russia's refining capacity offline, and Beijing kept Chinese fuel exports on a tight leash in October. Jamnagar, with about 1.4mn b/d of capacity on one site, is among the few plants with barrels to spare. Buyers across the Atlantic are paying heavily for those barrels, with ultra-low-sulphur diesel in New York Harbor averaging $5.20 a gallon in the week to October 23, or about $218 a barrel, against roughly $99 per barrel in January and February before the war. American drivers paid $6.35 a gallon at the pump on October 26, a few cents short of the year's peak of $6.53 on September 21. In Europe, France is due to release 10mn barrels of diesel from its strategic stocks on November 1 to cool record pump prices. New York Harbor ultra-low-sulphur diesel spot price, weekly average, $ per barrel. Source: US Energy Information Administration, released October 28, 2026. IntelliNews Russian oil helped Indian refiners through the worst of the summer, but its share of their crude slate is shrinking. After Gulf supply was disrupted they took record volumes of Russian crude in June and July. Kpler data then showed Russia's share of Indian crude imports dropping to about 35% in September from 56% in July, as Iraqi and Saudi sellers cut prices and freight on Russian cargoes soared, and state-owned refiners have swung back to Gulf crude for November. Moscow's headline export earnings have held up regardless: Russia's seaborne crude shipments were worth $2.76bn in the week to October 25, the largest weekly sum since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, according to Bloomberg tanker tracking, with China and India still the main buyers. That wartime high beat the previous record, set in the week to September 27, by only $10mn, and it measures the gross value of cargoes rather than tax receipts. Federal oil and gas revenue fell 17.2% y/y to RUB5.471 trillion ($67.8bn) in the first nine months of 2026. Washington has loosened its own rules to get more fuel on the water: the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued General License 135 on October 9, the day US President Donald Trump spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin, authorising the sale, delivery, offloading and importation of Russian-origin diesel until April 7, 2027. The licence still bars any debit to US accounts held by Russia's central bank, its National Wealth Fund or its Finance Ministry. A week later Trump put a sweeping Russia sanctions package on hold, citing the national interest. The White House also wants Indian refining capacity, and is looking to Jamnagar to process heavy Venezuelan crude into diesel before the November 3 midterm elections, The Economic Times reported, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio casting India as a refining superpower. New Delhi has eased its own brake on exports, cutting the diesel export duty to INR8.50 ($0.08) a litre from INR16 on October 16, after it had stood at INR25 in early September. Russian diesel is also flowing again, but slowly and mostly to old customers. Cargoes have resumed to Turkey and Brazil, the first tankers sent towards the US have struggled to find buyers, and Moscow will keep its ban on exports by producers until the end of the year except under quotas, Kommersant reported on October 29. Nayara Energy, the other private refiner in the Kpler figures and part-owned by Russia's Rosneft, has gone the other way, shipping about 39,000 bpd of diesel in October against 98,000 bpd in July, Kpler estimates show. Reliance's run depends on Western diesel staying near $200 a barrel, on Gulf refineries staying short and on a US licence that the Treasury can withdraw at any time, while Middle Eastern crude flows are already recovering. This article was produced with the help of IntelliNews Lambda analytical tool

U.S. oil and gas companies earned more than $130 billion in profits during the six months to September as the war with Iran drove up global energy prices, benefiting producers and refiners while households faced higher fuel costs. The estimate, based on the financial performance of more than 50 large U.S. oil and gas companies, covers April through September and excludes earnings from March, when the conflict began, and October.

Ali Pervaiz Malik promises some relief on Monday and talks with refiners on Tuesday, but gives no exact cut or new price

Pakistan's listed oil refineries face an estimated monthly financial burden of PKR 9.4 billion after the government shifted the impact of higher petrol import costs onto domestic refiners to keep retail prices unchanged, according to research reports by Arif Habib Limited (AHL) and Intermarket Securities. The revised pricing mechanism, approved by the federal cabinet on October 30 and reflected in the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority's (OGRA) pricing notification effective October 31, requires local refineries to surrender part of the petroleum levy to offset higher import costs. #### How did the government keep petrol prices unchanged? The government kept petrol at PKR 377.91 per liter despite higher import costs. The petroleum development levy remained unchanged at PKR 80 per liter, while a separate PKR 14.71 per liter adjustment was recovered through domestic refineries rather than passed on to consumers. The increase in import costs was driven by a rise in the petrol import premium from USD 19.88 to USD 25.52 per barrel and an increase in customs duty from PKR 20.56 to PKR 26.15 per liter. According to OGRA's pricing calculations, the benchmark ex-refinery/import price increased by PKR 15.13 per liter to PKR 282.26. The increase was offset by the PKR 14.71 petroleum levy adjustment and a PKR 0.42 per liter decline in the inland freight equalization margin (IFEM), keeping the ex-depot price unchanged. #### Why must refineries surrender PKR 49.02 per liter? Domestic refineries meet only around 30% of Pakistan's petrol demand, while the remainder is supplied through imports. Because the PKR 14.71 adjustment is calculated against total national consumption but recovered from domestic refineries, the effective amount rises to PKR 49.02 per liter of petrol sold by refineries to oil marketing companies (OMCs). OGRA's October 31 price calculation confirms that refineries must surrender PKR 49.02 per liter on their petrol sales to OMCs. Intermarket Securities estimated that this would translate into approximately USD 28 per barrel, pushing gross refining margins (GRMs) on petrol from around USD 4.8 per barrel into negative territory at approximately minus USD 23 per barrel. The brokerage said the adjustment would be recalculated every two weeks based on changes in the import premium, customs duty differential and domestic petrol supply share. #### Which refineries face the biggest financial impact? AHL estimates that the measure will impose a pre-tax burden of around PKR 9.4 billion, or approximately PKR 5.9 billion after tax, on the listed refining sector in November. Its estimate excludes Pak-Arab Refinery Limited (PARCO). According to the supplied company-level estimates, Attock Refinery Limited (ATRL) would bear 34.8% of the total burden, with the highest estimated after-tax earnings impact of PKR 19.35 per share. Cnergyico would account for 28.3% of the burden, with an estimated post-tax impact of PKR 0.31 per share, while Pakistan Refinery Limited (PRL) would absorb 20%, translating into an impact of PKR 1.89 per share. National Refinery Limited (NRL) would account for the remaining 16.9%, with an estimated post-tax earnings impact of PKR 12.51 per share. Intermarket Securities' separate estimates, based on average monthly sales during the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, showed a combined monthly pre-tax impact of PKR 12.43 billion across the four listed refineries. Under its calculations, ATRL would face a monthly impact of PKR 4.1 billion, NRL PKR 2.93 billion, PRL PKR 2.71 billion and Cnergyico PKR 2.69 billion. #### Could the new pricing rule affect refinery upgrades? Intermarket Securities described the measure as a significant regulatory risk for the refining sector, noting that petrol is among the industry's higher-margin products and the levy surrender could substantially erode profitability. The brokerage also raised concerns that the adjustment effectively offsets the increase in customs duty on petrol, despite the Brownfield Refinery Policy providing for deemed duty proceeds to be held in dedicated accounts to help finance refinery upgrades. However, Intermarket Securities said it had not incorporated the full impact into its earnings estimates, citing industry resistance and its understanding that the measure could be temporary. The cabinet-approved pricing arrangement is initially for 30 days, with refinery pricing components linked to their March 7, 2026 levels. The separate petroleum levy notification should not be interpreted as automatically expiring after that period. Both brokerage estimates highlight the financial uncertainty facing domestic refiners as the government seeks to shield consumers from higher petrol costs by shifting part of the adjustment to the refining sector.

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The $320.5 million deal comes as U.S. refiners net record profits from global price spikes for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel stemming from conflicts in the Middle East and Russia.