New stickers with cute girls are available in the store: www.kitsuprints.com/products/ssp2
December 7, 2024 at 3:11 PM
New stickers with cute girls are available in the store: www.kitsuprints.com/products/ssp2
The Northern Pacific Ocean is currently smashing temperature records.
And it is reaching these levels far earlier than the current generation of climate models had expected.
A short thread 🧵
And it is reaching these levels far earlier than the current generation of climate models had expected.
A short thread 🧵
September 18, 2025 at 10:44 AM
The Northern Pacific Ocean is currently smashing temperature records.
And it is reaching these levels far earlier than the current generation of climate models had expected.
A short thread 🧵
And it is reaching these levels far earlier than the current generation of climate models had expected.
A short thread 🧵
➡️Et même dans le scénario modéré SSP2-4.5, la remontée vers l’Europe de l’Est et le nord de l’Europe reste extrêmement marquée.
7/11
7/11
May 8, 2026 at 8:55 PM
➡️Et même dans le scénario modéré SSP2-4.5, la remontée vers l’Europe de l’Est et le nord de l’Europe reste extrêmement marquée.
7/11
7/11
Global temperature over the past two years have been very much on the high end of the range of future warming expected in a current policy-type scenario (SSP2-4.5) in the most recent IPCC report (which, itself, expects some near-term acceleration):
April 11, 2025 at 7:17 PM
Global temperature over the past two years have been very much on the high end of the range of future warming expected in a current policy-type scenario (SSP2-4.5) in the most recent IPCC report (which, itself, expects some near-term acceleration):
Un travail scientifique colossal.
De 1950 à 2100, nous avons mobilisé 10 modèles climatiques du CMIP6, 3 scénarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) et 12 indicateurs agroclimatiques clés : vernalisation, floraison, gel post-floraison, maturité, canicule, sécheresse, excès d’eau, etc.
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De 1950 à 2100, nous avons mobilisé 10 modèles climatiques du CMIP6, 3 scénarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) et 12 indicateurs agroclimatiques clés : vernalisation, floraison, gel post-floraison, maturité, canicule, sécheresse, excès d’eau, etc.
5/7
October 14, 2025 at 10:12 AM
Un travail scientifique colossal.
De 1950 à 2100, nous avons mobilisé 10 modèles climatiques du CMIP6, 3 scénarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) et 12 indicateurs agroclimatiques clés : vernalisation, floraison, gel post-floraison, maturité, canicule, sécheresse, excès d’eau, etc.
5/7
De 1950 à 2100, nous avons mobilisé 10 modèles climatiques du CMIP6, 3 scénarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) et 12 indicateurs agroclimatiques clés : vernalisation, floraison, gel post-floraison, maturité, canicule, sécheresse, excès d’eau, etc.
5/7
🐂💩📈
We are changing the climate of our planet faster than in the known history of our world.
Methane reached a record high of 1946.5 ppb!
That's already much higher than the peak of the mid range climate scenario SSP2-4.5, which peaks at ~1905 ppb in 2030!
We are changing the climate of our planet faster than in the known history of our world.
Methane reached a record high of 1946.5 ppb!
That's already much higher than the peak of the mid range climate scenario SSP2-4.5, which peaks at ~1905 ppb in 2030!
February 11, 2026 at 3:11 AM
🐂💩📈
We are changing the climate of our planet faster than in the known history of our world.
Methane reached a record high of 1946.5 ppb!
That's already much higher than the peak of the mid range climate scenario SSP2-4.5, which peaks at ~1905 ppb in 2030!
We are changing the climate of our planet faster than in the known history of our world.
Methane reached a record high of 1946.5 ppb!
That's already much higher than the peak of the mid range climate scenario SSP2-4.5, which peaks at ~1905 ppb in 2030!
When will the world really pass 1.5C (excluding year-to-year natural variability)?
The IPCC AR6 estimates it will happen around 2031 (with an uncertainty range spanning 2024 to 2043) in a current-policy-type SSP2-4.5 emissions scenario:
The IPCC AR6 estimates it will happen around 2031 (with an uncertainty range spanning 2024 to 2043) in a current-policy-type SSP2-4.5 emissions scenario:
February 14, 2024 at 11:59 PM
When will the world really pass 1.5C (excluding year-to-year natural variability)?
The IPCC AR6 estimates it will happen around 2031 (with an uncertainty range spanning 2024 to 2043) in a current-policy-type SSP2-4.5 emissions scenario:
The IPCC AR6 estimates it will happen around 2031 (with an uncertainty range spanning 2024 to 2043) in a current-policy-type SSP2-4.5 emissions scenario:
Les températures relevées en ce début d’année s’inscrivent dans la tranche haute des projections climatiques du GIEC (scénario SSP2-4.5), sans toutefois en sortir. En d’autres termes, le système climatique évolue rapidement, mais reste pour l’instant dans les limites des scénarios anticipés.
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2/3
April 24, 2025 at 8:14 PM
Les températures relevées en ce début d’année s’inscrivent dans la tranche haute des projections climatiques du GIEC (scénario SSP2-4.5), sans toutefois en sortir. En d’autres termes, le système climatique évolue rapidement, mais reste pour l’instant dans les limites des scénarios anticipés.
2/3
2/3
This is true when comparing the CMIP6 MMM to historical simulations, and AR6 assessed warming to observations:
CMIP6 MMM (SSP2-4.5)
1970-2014: 0.218C/decade
2015-2030: 0.303C/decade
Obs (Berkeley Earth) / AR6 Assessed (SSP2-4.5)
1970-2014: 0.184C/decade
2015-2030: 0.254C/decade
CMIP6 MMM (SSP2-4.5)
1970-2014: 0.218C/decade
2015-2030: 0.303C/decade
Obs (Berkeley Earth) / AR6 Assessed (SSP2-4.5)
1970-2014: 0.184C/decade
2015-2030: 0.254C/decade
October 13, 2023 at 4:27 PM
This is true when comparing the CMIP6 MMM to historical simulations, and AR6 assessed warming to observations:
CMIP6 MMM (SSP2-4.5)
1970-2014: 0.218C/decade
2015-2030: 0.303C/decade
Obs (Berkeley Earth) / AR6 Assessed (SSP2-4.5)
1970-2014: 0.184C/decade
2015-2030: 0.254C/decade
CMIP6 MMM (SSP2-4.5)
1970-2014: 0.218C/decade
2015-2030: 0.303C/decade
Obs (Berkeley Earth) / AR6 Assessed (SSP2-4.5)
1970-2014: 0.184C/decade
2015-2030: 0.254C/decade
In a new piece over at @carbonbrief.org I compare observed warming (and its historic rate) to three different future projections:
1) The IPCC AR6 assessed warming (SSP2-4.5)
2) The full CMIP6 ensemble (SSP2-4.5)
3) Hansen et al 2023's projected acceleration.
1) The IPCC AR6 assessed warming (SSP2-4.5)
2) The full CMIP6 ensemble (SSP2-4.5)
3) Hansen et al 2023's projected acceleration.
April 4, 2024 at 3:14 PM
In a new piece over at @carbonbrief.org I compare observed warming (and its historic rate) to three different future projections:
1) The IPCC AR6 assessed warming (SSP2-4.5)
2) The full CMIP6 ensemble (SSP2-4.5)
3) Hansen et al 2023's projected acceleration.
1) The IPCC AR6 assessed warming (SSP2-4.5)
2) The full CMIP6 ensemble (SSP2-4.5)
3) Hansen et al 2023's projected acceleration.
Such a warm summer in Europe would have been practically impossible in pre-industrial times.
Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, a summer like 2024 will be unusually cold in 2100.
Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, a summer like 2024 will be unusually cold in 2100.
September 6, 2024 at 9:01 AM
Such a warm summer in Europe would have been practically impossible in pre-industrial times.
Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, a summer like 2024 will be unusually cold in 2100.
Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, a summer like 2024 will be unusually cold in 2100.
I am just randomly updating some figures. Here is a comparison of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) Release 3 compared to the UN Population Division projections.
The SSPs cover the range reasonably well, but SSP1,3,4,5 are well outside of the probabilistic projections.
1/
The SSPs cover the range reasonably well, but SSP1,3,4,5 are well outside of the probabilistic projections.
1/
July 25, 2025 at 11:50 AM
I am just randomly updating some figures. Here is a comparison of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) Release 3 compared to the UN Population Division projections.
The SSPs cover the range reasonably well, but SSP1,3,4,5 are well outside of the probabilistic projections.
1/
The SSPs cover the range reasonably well, but SSP1,3,4,5 are well outside of the probabilistic projections.
1/
Le vrai sujet aujourd’hui, ce sont les scénarios intermédiaires à élevés. Et selon les trajectoires actuelles (ce que confirment d’ailleurs beaucoup de mes collègues climatologues) nous nous situons probablement entre un scénario modéré et un scénario élevé entre SSP2-4.5 & SSP3-7.0.
4/11
4/11
May 8, 2026 at 8:55 PM
Le vrai sujet aujourd’hui, ce sont les scénarios intermédiaires à élevés. Et selon les trajectoires actuelles (ce que confirment d’ailleurs beaucoup de mes collègues climatologues) nous nous situons probablement entre un scénario modéré et un scénario élevé entre SSP2-4.5 & SSP3-7.0.
4/11
4/11
Who’s going to tell XXL North Americans that they are ordinary humans?
Floor space. Resources. Affordabilty. Footprint. Impossible.
www.researchgate.net/figure/Floor...
Floor space. Resources. Affordabilty. Footprint. Impossible.
www.researchgate.net/figure/Floor...
March 15, 2026 at 10:11 AM
Who’s going to tell XXL North Americans that they are ordinary humans?
Floor space. Resources. Affordabilty. Footprint. Impossible.
www.researchgate.net/figure/Floor...
Floor space. Resources. Affordabilty. Footprint. Impossible.
www.researchgate.net/figure/Floor...
This apparent acceleration is also broadly consistent with our climate models, which expect a near-term acceleration in scenarios like SSP2-4.5 where aerosols emissions decline but CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions do not: www.carbonbrief.org/...
January 12, 2025 at 9:00 PM
This apparent acceleration is also broadly consistent with our climate models, which expect a near-term acceleration in scenarios like SSP2-4.5 where aerosols emissions decline but CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions do not: www.carbonbrief.org/...
When it comes to CO2, the world is following scenario SSP2-4.5 closest, which is why many conclude we're headed for 2.7°C by end of Century.
HOWEVER, SSP2-4.5 has us emitting about 76m t of SO2 per year in 2022, while we actually emitted 69m t. That could mean more warming than expected.
HOWEVER, SSP2-4.5 has us emitting about 76m t of SO2 per year in 2022, while we actually emitted 69m t. That could mean more warming than expected.
November 18, 2024 at 4:09 PM
When it comes to CO2, the world is following scenario SSP2-4.5 closest, which is why many conclude we're headed for 2.7°C by end of Century.
HOWEVER, SSP2-4.5 has us emitting about 76m t of SO2 per year in 2022, while we actually emitted 69m t. That could mean more warming than expected.
HOWEVER, SSP2-4.5 has us emitting about 76m t of SO2 per year in 2022, while we actually emitted 69m t. That could mean more warming than expected.
FOLKS - when we stop burning fossil fuels, oversizing agriculture and killing nature, the warming of Earth also stops worsening
No floppy optimism here; no hollow appeal to hope. The laws of physics that created this problem also govern the fact we can choose to stop it.
No floppy optimism here; no hollow appeal to hope. The laws of physics that created this problem also govern the fact we can choose to stop it.
August 20, 2026 at 12:16 PM
FOLKS - when we stop burning fossil fuels, oversizing agriculture and killing nature, the warming of Earth also stops worsening
No floppy optimism here; no hollow appeal to hope. The laws of physics that created this problem also govern the fact we can choose to stop it.
No floppy optimism here; no hollow appeal to hope. The laws of physics that created this problem also govern the fact we can choose to stop it.
Exactly as expected - right in line with projections
Climate model projections compared to observations in the Arctic
Note: The climate model projections here use SSP2-4.5/SSP3-7.0/RCP8.5, which consider some extreme greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. I will include more realistic SSP2-4.5 graphics in a future updat...
zacklabe.com
November 6, 2023 at 10:04 PM
Exactly as expected - right in line with projections
Here, for example, is the distribution of 2100 outcomes under a current-policy-type SSP2-4.5 scenario, which looks remarkably similar to the distribution of answers to the Guardian’s question:
May 9, 2024 at 3:32 PM
Here, for example, is the distribution of 2100 outcomes under a current-policy-type SSP2-4.5 scenario, which looks remarkably similar to the distribution of answers to the Guardian’s question:
Cooling Degree Days (CDD) is a measure of how much demand a place is likely to have for the use of artificial cooling.
In Paris, CDD has doubled over the last 40 years and is expected to redouble this century under current emission policies (SSP2-45).
In Paris, CDD has doubled over the last 40 years and is expected to redouble this century under current emission policies (SSP2-45).
June 26, 2026 at 7:14 AM
Cooling Degree Days (CDD) is a measure of how much demand a place is likely to have for the use of artificial cooling.
In Paris, CDD has doubled over the last 40 years and is expected to redouble this century under current emission policies (SSP2-45).
In Paris, CDD has doubled over the last 40 years and is expected to redouble this century under current emission policies (SSP2-45).
Where are global CO2 emissions heading?
Middle-of-the-road? But just because we have followed the SSP2-45, SSP4-60 path for 10 years, does not mean we follow it for the next 70 years.
Policy & technology have pushed the world away from the high-end, but 2.7C in 2100 & rising is not a good outcome!
Middle-of-the-road? But just because we have followed the SSP2-45, SSP4-60 path for 10 years, does not mean we follow it for the next 70 years.
Policy & technology have pushed the world away from the high-end, but 2.7C in 2100 & rising is not a good outcome!
November 21, 2025 at 9:07 AM
Where are global CO2 emissions heading?
Middle-of-the-road? But just because we have followed the SSP2-45, SSP4-60 path for 10 years, does not mean we follow it for the next 70 years.
Policy & technology have pushed the world away from the high-end, but 2.7C in 2100 & rising is not a good outcome!
Middle-of-the-road? But just because we have followed the SSP2-45, SSP4-60 path for 10 years, does not mean we follow it for the next 70 years.
Policy & technology have pushed the world away from the high-end, but 2.7C in 2100 & rising is not a good outcome!
SSP tweeps: does SSP2-45 have a lot of CCS/BECCS in it? I've looked at the numbers and am shocked at how much there is. But I'd like to verify I'm not doing something dumb.
cc: @pfriedling.bsky.social
cc: @pfriedling.bsky.social
August 31, 2026 at 5:50 AM
SSP tweeps: does SSP2-45 have a lot of CCS/BECCS in it? I've looked at the numbers and am shocked at how much there is. But I'd like to verify I'm not doing something dumb.
cc: @pfriedling.bsky.social
cc: @pfriedling.bsky.social
My other little frustration is "we are tracking SSP2-45, therefore we are head to X". Even I sometimes say that, but my thinking is rather different.
Just because we are following SSP2-45 for 10 years, does not mean we will follow it for 75 years. This is ridiculous.
5/
Just because we are following SSP2-45 for 10 years, does not mean we will follow it for 75 years. This is ridiculous.
5/
May 22, 2026 at 7:09 AM
My other little frustration is "we are tracking SSP2-45, therefore we are head to X". Even I sometimes say that, but my thinking is rather different.
Just because we are following SSP2-45 for 10 years, does not mean we will follow it for 75 years. This is ridiculous.
5/
Just because we are following SSP2-45 for 10 years, does not mean we will follow it for 75 years. This is ridiculous.
5/