I've been enjoying watching guys mansplain the Sahm rule to ... Claudia Sahm
November 12, 2023 at 11:21 PM
I've been enjoying watching guys mansplain the Sahm rule to ... Claudia Sahm
Cancer stupidly ‘showed up‘ in August 2024, around the same time the Sahm rule triggered … Very happy that the Sahm rule but not the Sahm broke. Win on both counts! Feels like forever ago.
February 4, 2026 at 11:22 PM
Cancer stupidly ‘showed up‘ in August 2024, around the same time the Sahm rule triggered … Very happy that the Sahm rule but not the Sahm broke. Win on both counts! Feels like forever ago.
I talked with @pkrugman.bsky.social on Tuesday about automatic stabilizers (policy based on changes in macro conditions) and the Sahm rule. The ongoing tariff policy chaos run by the President alone is as far from an automatic stabilizer as one can get. stayathomemacro.substack.com/cp/161228264
An Interview With Claudia Sahm
Of rules, recessions and more
stayathomemacro.substack.com
April 13, 2025 at 2:15 PM
I talked with @pkrugman.bsky.social on Tuesday about automatic stabilizers (policy based on changes in macro conditions) and the Sahm rule. The ongoing tariff policy chaos run by the President alone is as far from an automatic stabilizer as one can get. stayathomemacro.substack.com/cp/161228264
GOLDMAN: “.. the revised payroll trajectory now constitutes .. the ‘downside labor market risks’ cited by Chair Powell .. investors should take the weak signal seriously. And while the unemployment rate has moved up only very slowly .., a further rise may re-awaken ‘Sahm rule’-type recession fears.”
August 18, 2025 at 11:49 AM
GOLDMAN: “.. the revised payroll trajectory now constitutes .. the ‘downside labor market risks’ cited by Chair Powell .. investors should take the weak signal seriously. And while the unemployment rate has moved up only very slowly .., a further rise may re-awaken ‘Sahm rule’-type recession fears.”
new Sahm Rule / Waffle House Index just dropped
you know the us economy isn't looking good when the right wing talking points shift to transgender sports and it's not even a normal sport, it's fencing. like yeah if you hear about transgender ping pong start taking your money out of the bank
April 10, 2025 at 6:39 PM
new Sahm Rule / Waffle House Index just dropped
The U.S. is very close to triggering the SAHM rule, usually an accurate indicator of recession.
The rule is triggered when the three-month average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points, relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.
The rule is triggered when the three-month average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points, relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.
December 19, 2025 at 3:01 PM
The U.S. is very close to triggering the SAHM rule, usually an accurate indicator of recession.
The rule is triggered when the three-month average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points, relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.
The rule is triggered when the three-month average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points, relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.
NOTABLE LEADING INDICATORS OF A RECESSION:
-inverted yield curve
-the Sahm rule
-the White House saying the jobs reporting system is permanently damaged and they're just not going to release the numbers because they'd be wrong anyway
-inverted yield curve
-the Sahm rule
-the White House saying the jobs reporting system is permanently damaged and they're just not going to release the numbers because they'd be wrong anyway
WHITE HOUSE: FEDERAL STATISTICAL SYSTEM MAY HAVE PERMANENTLY BEEN DAMAGED WHITE HOUSE: OCTOBER JOBS REPORTS LIKELY NEVER RELEASED
November 12, 2025 at 6:55 PM
NOTABLE LEADING INDICATORS OF A RECESSION:
-inverted yield curve
-the Sahm rule
-the White House saying the jobs reporting system is permanently damaged and they're just not going to release the numbers because they'd be wrong anyway
-inverted yield curve
-the Sahm rule
-the White House saying the jobs reporting system is permanently damaged and they're just not going to release the numbers because they'd be wrong anyway
The Sahm Rule is flashing red, and the unemployment rate is rising.
What does this mean?
- For sure the economy is in a MALAISE. (Close to no job growth since Liberation Day.)
- I reckon it's in a jobless SLUMP.
- It may be in or on the cusp of a RECESSION.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=UBTN...
What does this mean?
- For sure the economy is in a MALAISE. (Close to no job growth since Liberation Day.)
- I reckon it's in a jobless SLUMP.
- It may be in or on the cusp of a RECESSION.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=UBTN...
The Sahm Rule Is Flashing Red: Justin Wolfers on Looming Recession Risk
What if the U.S. hasn’t really created any net new jobs since April—just as unemployment is starting to climb?
In this conversation, economist Justin Wolfers unpacks a sobering jobs report that…
www.youtube.com
December 17, 2025 at 2:10 PM
The Sahm Rule is flashing red, and the unemployment rate is rising.
What does this mean?
- For sure the economy is in a MALAISE. (Close to no job growth since Liberation Day.)
- I reckon it's in a jobless SLUMP.
- It may be in or on the cusp of a RECESSION.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=UBTN...
What does this mean?
- For sure the economy is in a MALAISE. (Close to no job growth since Liberation Day.)
- I reckon it's in a jobless SLUMP.
- It may be in or on the cusp of a RECESSION.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=UBTN...
The Sahm rule uses the 3-month average to smooth out noise in the unemployment rate. With October missing, the 3-month average is missing until January data are available.
Today in "adventures in false precision": If the unemployment rate comes in at 4.6% tomorrow, and does the same in December (not most people's base case, but hardly inconceivable), then the question of whether the Sahm Rule triggered will depend on how you handle October's missing number. #EconSky
December 16, 2025 at 11:47 AM
The Sahm rule uses the 3-month average to smooth out noise in the unemployment rate. With October missing, the 3-month average is missing until January data are available.
Are we in a recession?
Perhaps. Maybe. Hard to tell.
The Sahm Rule focuses on the 3-month average unemployment rate, and asking if it's risen half a point above its year-long low.
The low was 4.0% in January.
The latest (average of Sept & Nov, with Oct missing): 4.5%.
That's +0.5%.
Perhaps. Maybe. Hard to tell.
The Sahm Rule focuses on the 3-month average unemployment rate, and asking if it's risen half a point above its year-long low.
The low was 4.0% in January.
The latest (average of Sept & Nov, with Oct missing): 4.5%.
That's +0.5%.
December 16, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Are we in a recession?
Perhaps. Maybe. Hard to tell.
The Sahm Rule focuses on the 3-month average unemployment rate, and asking if it's risen half a point above its year-long low.
The low was 4.0% in January.
The latest (average of Sept & Nov, with Oct missing): 4.5%.
That's +0.5%.
Perhaps. Maybe. Hard to tell.
The Sahm Rule focuses on the 3-month average unemployment rate, and asking if it's risen half a point above its year-long low.
The low was 4.0% in January.
The latest (average of Sept & Nov, with Oct missing): 4.5%.
That's +0.5%.
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
fred.stlouisfed.org
February 27, 2025 at 1:51 PM
Remember the Sahm Rule? Markets don't either.
November 29, 2024 at 5:06 PM
Remember the Sahm Rule? Markets don't either.
The Sahm rule remains untriggered.
December 7, 2024 at 12:25 PM
The Sahm rule remains untriggered.
Two years ago the yield curve inverted, leading to many predictions of imminent recession based on this “sure-fire” indicator. We’re still waiting. Worth remembering if the next employment report breaches the Sahm Rule.
July 12, 2024 at 4:23 PM
Two years ago the yield curve inverted, leading to many predictions of imminent recession based on this “sure-fire” indicator. We’re still waiting. Worth remembering if the next employment report breaches the Sahm Rule.
Sahm Rule has now been triggered. As I wrote, this *probably* doesn’t mean we’re in a recession given special circumstances, but economy is now definitely pre-recessionary www.nytimes.com/2024/07/30/o...
Opinion | Keep Sahm and Carry On
A recession indicator may soon be triggered, but don’t panic.
www.nytimes.com
August 2, 2024 at 12:43 PM
Sahm Rule has now been triggered. As I wrote, this *probably* doesn’t mean we’re in a recession given special circumstances, but economy is now definitely pre-recessionary www.nytimes.com/2024/07/30/o...
Pour one out for yet another recession indicator: As of October, the "Sahm Rule" no longer suggests a recession has begun. (Notably, Claudia Sahm herself has been arguing for months that her rule might not be very informative this time around.)
November 1, 2024 at 1:06 PM
Pour one out for yet another recession indicator: As of October, the "Sahm Rule" no longer suggests a recession has begun. (Notably, Claudia Sahm herself has been arguing for months that her rule might not be very informative this time around.)
BofA: Sahm Rule trigger unlikely
March 3, 2026 at 9:13 PM
BofA: Sahm Rule trigger unlikely
Sahm Rule lowest in 3 years
July 2, 2026 at 1:59 PM
Sahm Rule lowest in 3 years
Fill in missing data as you see fit but don’t expect rules of thumb like the 0.5 in the Sahm rule to carry the same meaning. The data fog will lift gradually.
December 16, 2025 at 11:56 AM
Fill in missing data as you see fit but don’t expect rules of thumb like the 0.5 in the Sahm rule to carry the same meaning. The data fog will lift gradually.
Notable: The Sahm Rule Recession indicator is no longer flashing red. It fell back below the 0.5 trigger level in October, November and December.
Normally the Sahm Rule is triggered and it keeps going up as a recession becomes clearer.
This time? It's coming back down.
December level = 0.4
Normally the Sahm Rule is triggered and it keeps going up as a recession becomes clearer.
This time? It's coming back down.
December level = 0.4
January 10, 2025 at 2:10 PM
Notable: The Sahm Rule Recession indicator is no longer flashing red. It fell back below the 0.5 trigger level in October, November and December.
Normally the Sahm Rule is triggered and it keeps going up as a recession becomes clearer.
This time? It's coming back down.
December level = 0.4
Normally the Sahm Rule is triggered and it keeps going up as a recession becomes clearer.
This time? It's coming back down.
December level = 0.4
The Sahm rule was triggered by the jobs report, even though Claudia Sahm herself says we're probably not in a recession.
Beyond that, panics are sort of inherently irrational
Beyond that, panics are sort of inherently irrational
August 5, 2024 at 2:15 PM
The Sahm rule was triggered by the jobs report, even though Claudia Sahm herself says we're probably not in a recession.
Beyond that, panics are sort of inherently irrational
Beyond that, panics are sort of inherently irrational
That said I don't think the Sahm rule gets triggered this year either
July 10, 2025 at 1:17 PM
That said I don't think the Sahm rule gets triggered this year either
Sahm Rule not even close right now
May 5, 2026 at 11:21 AM
Sahm Rule not even close right now
A quick post on the Sahm Rule: substack.com/home/post/p-...
A Quick Post on the Sahm Rule
An Empirical Regularity, Not a Magic Incantation
substack.com
December 17, 2025 at 8:01 PM
A quick post on the Sahm Rule: substack.com/home/post/p-...