Traditionally, the US economy has always stalled once employment stopped growing. Remember the Sahm rule? My view back then was that people were misreading the labour market and Fed didnt need to cut. But I dont set policy. My point - it wasnt political
September 18, 2026 at 2:36 PM
Traditionally, the US economy has always stalled once employment stopped growing. Remember the Sahm rule? My view back then was that people were misreading the labour market and Fed didnt need to cut. But I dont set policy. My point - it wasnt political
Fed accounts using the post office as a brick-and-mortar access point. GI and child allowance deposited directly into the account. Sahm rule stimulus checks too.
This was a big focus of mine during my JFI days
jfiresearch.org/building-a-h...
This was a big focus of mine during my JFI days
jfiresearch.org/building-a-h...
September 10, 2026 at 12:36 PM
Fed accounts using the post office as a brick-and-mortar access point. GI and child allowance deposited directly into the account. Sahm rule stimulus checks too.
This was a big focus of mine during my JFI days
jfiresearch.org/building-a-h...
This was a big focus of mine during my JFI days
jfiresearch.org/building-a-h...
74K removed from prior months in revisions. June: +57K. 4.2% unemployment. If the deceleration continues one more month, the Sahm Rule crosses from market trivia into market risk. #macro
July 3, 2026 at 9:46 PM
74K removed from prior months in revisions. June: +57K. 4.2% unemployment. If the deceleration continues one more month, the Sahm Rule crosses from market trivia into market risk. #macro
The Sahm Rule was created as a fiscal trigger, and by and large my work mostly uses the turning point framework to do descriptive work, to highlight/characterize the labor market.
But county-level modified Sahm Rules can easily be adapted by policymakers at really any level fed/state/county.
2/n
But county-level modified Sahm Rules can easily be adapted by policymakers at really any level fed/state/county.
2/n
July 3, 2026 at 5:30 AM
The Sahm Rule was created as a fiscal trigger, and by and large my work mostly uses the turning point framework to do descriptive work, to highlight/characterize the labor market.
But county-level modified Sahm Rules can easily be adapted by policymakers at really any level fed/state/county.
2/n
But county-level modified Sahm Rules can easily be adapted by policymakers at really any level fed/state/county.
2/n
Sahm Rule lowest in 3 years
July 2, 2026 at 1:59 PM
Sahm Rule lowest in 3 years
🔴 the Sahm rule, hidden in the unemployment rate: the 3-month average rising ~0.5 percentage points above its 12-month low has historically flagged a recession underway — a real-time tell, with caveats (it measures the rise, not… A framework, not advice.
June 28, 2026 at 1:57 PM
🔴 the Sahm rule, hidden in the unemployment rate: the 3-month average rising ~0.5 percentage points above its 12-month low has historically flagged a recession underway — a real-time tell, with caveats (it measures the rise, not… A framework, not advice.
anyway was trying to find an old post where i showed how this picture of log-linear paths interrupted by "shocks" we call recessions is related to the Sahm rule
Deriving the Sahm rule from the DIEM
The Sahm rule naturally arises in the Dynamic Information Equilibrium Model (DIEM) with noise
infoeqm.substack.com
June 2, 2026 at 12:43 PM
anyway was trying to find an old post where i showed how this picture of log-linear paths interrupted by "shocks" we call recessions is related to the Sahm rule
June 2, 2026 at 4:36 AM
Sahm Rule not even close right now
May 5, 2026 at 11:21 AM
Sahm Rule not even close right now
The MRS collapses that workflow. Seven recession methodologies, fifty-plus indicators from FRED, a single composite risk score from 0 to 100, with the Sahm rule, yield curve, GDP rule, credit stress, leading indicators, and Blockcircle Labs metrics each broken out separately.
April 30, 2026 at 7:00 PM
The MRS collapses that workflow. Seven recession methodologies, fifty-plus indicators from FRED, a single composite risk score from 0 to 100, with the Sahm rule, yield curve, GDP rule, credit stress, leading indicators, and Blockcircle Labs metrics each broken out separately.
Hiring has slowed while layoffs are increasing.
Under Trump and Republicans, job creation has fallen to near-recession levels.
www.businessinsider.com/us-recession...
Under Trump and Republicans, job creation has fallen to near-recession levels.
www.businessinsider.com/us-recession...
Moody's top economist says the job market is sending a signal that the US may already be in a recession
Top economist Mark Zandi said he created a recession indicator based around the Sahm Rule, which flashed a positive signal for a downturn in January.
www.businessinsider.com
April 17, 2026 at 1:37 PM
Hiring has slowed while layoffs are increasing.
Under Trump and Republicans, job creation has fallen to near-recession levels.
www.businessinsider.com/us-recession...
Under Trump and Republicans, job creation has fallen to near-recession levels.
www.businessinsider.com/us-recession...
Maybe there should be a Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social rule for inflation as well
April 10, 2026 at 1:01 PM
Maybe there should be a Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social rule for inflation as well
Economist Mark Zandi Says There's One Signal US May Already Be in Recession - Business Insider share.google/7d6i3P19IZtG...
Moody's top economist says the job market is sending a signal that the US may already be in a recession
Top economist Mark Zandi said he created a recession indicator based around the Sahm Rule, which flashed a positive signal for a downturn in January.
share.google
April 9, 2026 at 3:05 AM
Economist Mark Zandi Says There's One Signal US May Already Be in Recession - Business Insider share.google/7d6i3P19IZtG...
#Moody's top #economist says the US job market is signaling that a #recession is already underway
www.businessinsider.com/us-recession...
www.businessinsider.com/us-recession...
Moody's top economist says the job market is sending a signal that the US may already be in a recession
Top economist Mark Zandi said he created a recession indicator based around the Sahm Rule, which flashed a positive signal for a downturn in January.
www.businessinsider.com
April 9, 2026 at 1:46 AM
#Moody's top #economist says the US job market is signaling that a #recession is already underway
www.businessinsider.com/us-recession...
www.businessinsider.com/us-recession...
Yep. A republican president and a republican congress. This all tracks.
www.businessinsider.com/us-recession...
www.businessinsider.com/us-recession...
Moody's top economist says the job market is sending a signal that the US may already be in a recession
Top economist Mark Zandi said he created a recession indicator based around the Sahm Rule, which flashed a positive signal for a downturn in January.
www.businessinsider.com
April 8, 2026 at 11:16 PM
Yep. A republican president and a republican congress. This all tracks.
www.businessinsider.com/us-recession...
www.businessinsider.com/us-recession...
When they say added "healthcare jobs" they're talking about caregiving, the fastest growing occupation in the US for a reason. Typically paid through Medicaide, low wages & lack of training makes the field unstable & impoverished, while Tech corps hire 30k/yr in India.
share.google/ah6N9SOTSuzi...
share.google/ah6N9SOTSuzi...
Moody's top economist says the job market is sending a signal that the US may already be in a recession
Top economist Mark Zandi said he created a recession indicator based around the Sahm Rule, which flashed a positive signal for a downturn in January.
share.google
April 8, 2026 at 9:48 PM
When they say added "healthcare jobs" they're talking about caregiving, the fastest growing occupation in the US for a reason. Typically paid through Medicaide, low wages & lack of training makes the field unstable & impoverished, while Tech corps hire 30k/yr in India.
share.google/ah6N9SOTSuzi...
share.google/ah6N9SOTSuzi...
We're winning so much that we're finally starting to admit that a recession is on its way
When you think about it about 2 yrs ago shortly after the election of Trump the recession would actually kick in due to moves he was making
No one wanted to admit it.
www.businessinsider.com/us-recession...
When you think about it about 2 yrs ago shortly after the election of Trump the recession would actually kick in due to moves he was making
No one wanted to admit it.
www.businessinsider.com/us-recession...
Moody's top economist says the job market is sending a signal that the US may already be in a recession
Top economist Mark Zandi said he created a recession indicator based around the Sahm Rule, which flashed a positive signal for a downturn in January.
www.businessinsider.com
April 8, 2026 at 4:26 PM
We're winning so much that we're finally starting to admit that a recession is on its way
When you think about it about 2 yrs ago shortly after the election of Trump the recession would actually kick in due to moves he was making
No one wanted to admit it.
www.businessinsider.com/us-recession...
When you think about it about 2 yrs ago shortly after the election of Trump the recession would actually kick in due to moves he was making
No one wanted to admit it.
www.businessinsider.com/us-recession...
is this anything? its the sahm rule plus labor participation in a way he says takes out immigration bsky.app/profile/t0us...
April 8, 2026 at 3:06 PM
is this anything? its the sahm rule plus labor participation in a way he says takes out immigration bsky.app/profile/t0us...