#SampleSize
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countofgartmore.bsky.social
sometimes when i'm feeling particularly devilish i go to r/samplesize and just spout nonsense in surveys.
November 5, 2026 at 9:44 PM
mzloteanu.bsky.social
#statstab #678 How Many Participants Do I Need to Test an Interaction?

Thoughts: The shape of your interaction can require a huge sample (unlike what G*Power says)

#samplesize #power #interaction #experiment #tutorial #guide

doi.org/10.1177/2515...
October 28, 2026 at 6:14 PM
mzloteanu.bsky.social
#statstab #677* Reference for the claim that you need 16 times as much data to estimate interactions as to estimate main effects

Thoughts: Nice discussion of an older paper/problem.

*fixed the numbering!

#interaction #debate #discussion #samplesize

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/10/16/r...
Reference for the claim that you need 16 times as much data to estimate interactions as to estimate main effects | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
October 26, 2026 at 6:23 PM
overshove.bsky.social
Your hourly rate over 100 hours can look very different from your rate over 500. Variance in live poker is wide, and short stretches can flatter or punish you. The data gets more useful the longer you collect it. #SampleSize #LivePoker
October 12, 2026 at 8:00 AM
overshove.bsky.social
A few hundred hours of live cash feels like a lot when you are living it. But statistically it is still a small window. Before drawing conclusions about your edge, keep logging and let the hours build. #LivePoker #SampleSize
October 8, 2026 at 11:15 AM
gogoglen.bsky.social
A smaller, sample size, Friendship Star quilt for the next series of maker's markets.

#friendship #star #quilt #samplesize #makersmarket #malequilter #australia #quiltsky
September 27, 2026 at 10:33 PM
rockotactics.bsky.social
Einfach mal ein paar Daten im Vergleich zur letzten Saison.
6 Spieltage sind nach wie vor eine zu kleine Samplesize für einen guten Vergleich. Daten 25/26 auf die ganze Saison gesehen.
Die Farben habe ich nur gewählt, damit man direkt sieht was sich wie entwickelt hat. Ohne Wertung.
#Arminia
September 21, 2026 at 8:05 PM
davidmichels.bsky.social
Oh ik weet hoe ai werkt hoor haha. Maar de samplesize is mij te klein. Vind het wel zo voelen en met de check ook geloofwaardig, maar niet per se overtuigd.
September 18, 2026 at 6:04 PM
rockotactics.bsky.social
Alles natürlich noch mit einer extrem geringen Samplesize aber ich bin gespannt wie es sich entwickelt
September 14, 2026 at 8:37 PM
tuepae.bsky.social
Du kannst es aber nicht mit Statistiken vergleichen, die über ne ganze Saison gehen. Gerade in der zweiten Liga. Vielleicht spielen bis auf Nürnberg alle unsere Gegner gegen den Abstieg. Dann sind die Zahlen auf jeden Fall verzerrt. 5 Spiele sind einfach ne viel zu kleine Samplesize.
September 12, 2026 at 3:35 PM
hobitten1992.bsky.social
Jeg ser at FCK alltime har vundet betydeligt flere kampe hjemme end ude.

At gøre samplesize mindre, ved udelukkende at kigge på pokalfinaler, det må i gerne, det bliver jeres pointe bare ikke stærkere af.

FCK er bedre i Parken, end udenfor, deraf konkurrenceforvridningen.
September 12, 2026 at 1:01 PM
rockotactics.bsky.social
Ergänzend: wir lassen auch die wenigsten Torschüsse zu

Letzte Saison zum Vergleich
Platz 5 zugelassene xG
Platz 5 zugelassene Torschüsse
Platz 11 Gegentore
Platz 15 bei Gegentore - xGA

Diese Saison
Platz 1
Platz 2
Platz 9
Platz 18

Samplesize noch halt klein
deshalb vor allem das Nürnbergspiel
September 8, 2026 at 1:27 PM
rockotactics.bsky.social
Also so ein Spiel reißt aktuell halt noch sehr viel raus bei der kleinen samplesize
September 8, 2026 at 12:07 PM
aleatoricfc.bsky.social
With no edge at all, Kelly beats flat 49.9% of the time. My gap sits at the 44th percentile of that noise.

This settles nothing.

Locked before kickoff:
aleatoricfc.github.io/aleatoric-ve...
t.me/aleatoricfc

#SportsBetting #KellyCriterion #SampleSize
September 6, 2026 at 6:35 PM
aleatoricfc.bsky.social
Don't trust me. Especially now.

Each morning pre-kickoff: my games and markets, plus a signed SHA-256 of the picks. Pinned: key, steps, verify.py.

Proof I can't lie. Not that I have an edge.

t.me/aleatoricfc

#SportsBetting #LossAversion #SampleSize
September 5, 2026 at 8:31 AM
mzloteanu.bsky.social
#statstab #609 When power analyses based on pilot data are biased: Inaccurate effect size estimators and follow-up bias

Thoughts: Don't judge effects by impressive pilot data.

#poweranalysis #bias #samplesize #error #eta2 #omega #epsilon #effectsize

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
When power analyses based on pilot data are biased: Inaccurate effect size estimators and follow-up bias
When designing a study, the planned sample size is often based on power analyses. One way to choose an effect size for power analyses is by relying on…
www.sciencedirect.com
September 3, 2026 at 5:25 PM
aleatoricfc.bsky.social
That lead could just be luck.

I replayed the same 34 bets with no skill involved. Kelly still finished this far ahead 2 times in 5.

Direction matches theory. Size proves nothing.

aleatoricfc.github.io/aleatoric-ve...
t.me/aleatoricfc

#SportsBetting #KellyCriterion #SampleSize
September 3, 2026 at 8:00 AM
random-mdn.bsky.social
🦖 MediaTrackSupportedConstraints: sampleSi… 🦖

https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/API/MediaTrackSupportedConstraints/sampleSize

The MediaTrackSupportedConstraints dictionary's sampleSize property is a read-only Boolean value which is present (and set to true) in the object retu…

#webdev
MediaTrackSupportedConstraints: sampleSi…
The MediaTrackSupportedConstraints dictionary's sampleSize property is a read-only Boolean value which is present (and set to true) in the object retu…
developer.mozilla.org
August 29, 2026 at 1:42 PM
saegge.eurosky.social
(war nur ein sekundäres Ergebnis und natürlich sehr schlechte samplesize dafür aber das kam da halt so raus und ist auch komplett erwartbar)
August 28, 2026 at 10:21 PM
aleatoricfc.bsky.social
That mechanism cuts both ways. Wrong probabilities and Kelly amplifies the error instead.

With no edge at all it still beats flat 53% of the time.

Direction matches theory, but 18 bets prove nothing.

t.me/aleatoricfc

#SportsBetting #Kelly #SampleSize
August 29, 2026 at 9:44 AM
rockotactics.bsky.social
Ich mich erneut was unsere Vereins-DNA sein soll

Wenn ichs richtig im kopf hab sollte sich das Spiel mit Ball verbessern, der Ansatz mit hohem Pressing aber nicht

Die samplesize in der Liga ist sehr klein aber die neuen Abläufe relativ klar
August 27, 2026 at 8:37 AM
mzloteanu.bsky.social
#statstab #603 A More Complete Post on Decision Theory and EVSI in A/B Testing

Thoughts: Interesting to consider, mostly for replications imo.

#samplesize #poweranalysis #bayesian #evsi #loss #utility #ABtesting #decisiontheory

dpananos.github.io/posts/2026-0...
A More Complete Post on Decision Theory and EVSI in A/B Testing – Demetri Pananos Ph.D
dpananos.github.io
August 26, 2026 at 5:52 PM
aleatoricfc.bsky.social
The honest part.

With no edge at all, Kelly still beats flat 54% of the time — it leans on short odds and short odds land. Some of this gap is free.

Direction matches theory, but 11 bets prove nothing.

t.me/aleatoricfc

#SportsBetting #Kelly #SampleSize
August 26, 2026 at 7:00 AM
aleatoricfc.bsky.social
Don't trust me.

Each morning before kickoff: my games and markets, plus a signed SHA-256 of the picks. They follow next day. Pinned: key, steps, verify.py.

Proof I can't lie. Not that I have an edge.

t.me/aleatoricfc

#SportsBetting #Anchoring #SampleSize
August 24, 2026 at 8:47 AM
aleatoricfc.bsky.social
Before you are impressed: Kelly leans to short odds, and short odds land more often. With no edge at all it still beats flat ~55% of the time.

Direction matches theory. Eight bets settle nothing.

t.me/aleatoricfc

#SportsBetting #Kelly #SampleSize
August 23, 2026 at 10:18 AM