teaching nhst always makes me glad to be bayesian
November 8, 2026 at 2:42 PM
teaching nhst always makes me glad to be bayesian
if they were actually subjective utility maximizers strapped to a bayesian updating system then we'd be having a completely different conversation... but they're not!
November 8, 2026 at 8:16 PM
if they were actually subjective utility maximizers strapped to a bayesian updating system then we'd be having a completely different conversation... but they're not!
Hey, the Bayesian bootstrap is pretty neat!
November 10, 2026 at 12:12 AM
Hey, the Bayesian bootstrap is pretty neat!
Gemini 4 Carbon: resolving-the-great-silence.netlify.app
The Great Silence — An Empirical & Bayesian Investigation of the Fermi Paradox
A quantitative astrobiological, Bayesian, and game-theoretic investigation of the Fermi Paradox using 6,451 live NASA exoplanets, 2024–2026 geobiological constraints, spatial percolation simulations, ...
resolving-the-great-silence.netlify.app
November 11, 2026 at 3:36 AM
Gemini 4 Carbon: resolving-the-great-silence.netlify.app
Adding the word Bayesian to a procedure that is otherwise not particularly Bayesian still substantially improves the procedure.
For estimating standard errors & confidence intervals, the Bayesian bootstrap (where you assign random weights to units) is better than the regular bootstrap (where you randomly resample with replacement)
pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...
pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...
November 7, 2026 at 4:13 AM
Adding the word Bayesian to a procedure that is otherwise not particularly Bayesian still substantially improves the procedure.
He's really taking on naive Bayesian updating, and he has a point.
On the verge of winning Mississippi, Scott Colom points a finger at the Cook Political Report and other election prognosticators and says they hamstrung candidates like him and Louisiana’s Jamie Davis by rating their races unwinnable
November 10, 2026 at 12:11 AM
He's really taking on naive Bayesian updating, and he has a point.
What we need is Bayesian RELAXflow
🏝️🍸
🏝️🍸
November 11, 2026 at 4:41 PM
What we need is Bayesian RELAXflow
🏝️🍸
🏝️🍸
Survey Statistics: Sampling from a Bayesian Menu
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/11/10/s...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/11/10/s...
Survey Statistics: Sampling from a Bayesian Menu | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
November 10, 2026 at 11:11 PM
Survey Statistics: Sampling from a Bayesian Menu
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/11/10/s...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/11/10/s...
She loved her first Bayesian book so much that she was trying to hold it and eat it all the time.
November 8, 2026 at 12:04 AM
She loved her first Bayesian book so much that she was trying to hold it and eat it all the time.
In Praise of the Bayesian Bootstrap! Insightful + fun new JEP from Isaiah, Sarah, and Jesse
t.co/gIXDonDTo3
t.co/gIXDonDTo3
November 6, 2026 at 5:18 PM
In Praise of the Bayesian Bootstrap! Insightful + fun new JEP from Isaiah, Sarah, and Jesse
t.co/gIXDonDTo3
t.co/gIXDonDTo3
Adding Bayesian Bootstrap to my empirical methods class next semester.
Very useful.
Very useful.
In Praise of the Bayesian Bootstrap! Insightful + fun new JEP from Isaiah, Sarah, and Jesse
t.co/gIXDonDTo3
t.co/gIXDonDTo3
November 7, 2026 at 1:56 PM
Adding Bayesian Bootstrap to my empirical methods class next semester.
Very useful.
Very useful.
You know you can also just be Bayesian
November 7, 2026 at 3:16 AM
You know you can also just be Bayesian
unfortunately, I like eyebrows, em-dashes, purple, and hierarchical bayesian models
November 6, 2026 at 11:26 PM
unfortunately, I like eyebrows, em-dashes, purple, and hierarchical bayesian models
pumpkin spice? it's almost mint mocha season bro you gotta update your bayesian priors
November 9, 2026 at 4:48 PM
pumpkin spice? it's almost mint mocha season bro you gotta update your bayesian priors
For estimating standard errors & confidence intervals, the Bayesian bootstrap (where you assign random weights to units) is better than the regular bootstrap (where you randomly resample with replacement)
pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...
pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...
November 6, 2026 at 10:40 PM
For estimating standard errors & confidence intervals, the Bayesian bootstrap (where you assign random weights to units) is better than the regular bootstrap (where you randomly resample with replacement)
pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...
pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...
Yudkowsky's writing is all about powerful bayesian calculators who have internalized logical assumptions about all of ethics, morality and causality and so they become so powerful that they're able to reason about the future and the past simultaneously.
November 8, 2026 at 7:26 PM
Yudkowsky's writing is all about powerful bayesian calculators who have internalized logical assumptions about all of ethics, morality and causality and so they become so powerful that they're able to reason about the future and the past simultaneously.
Gotta admit it's funny how Nate Silver's data-based empirical Bayesian analysis is "Ossoff just won his election by a lot and he's a looker."
Whoa, incredible, no way the rest of us could've come up with that kind of trenchant commentary. It helps to be popular and hot? Huh. Wow.
Whoa, incredible, no way the rest of us could've come up with that kind of trenchant commentary. It helps to be popular and hot? Huh. Wow.
November 7, 2026 at 9:21 PM
Gotta admit it's funny how Nate Silver's data-based empirical Bayesian analysis is "Ossoff just won his election by a lot and he's a looker."
Whoa, incredible, no way the rest of us could've come up with that kind of trenchant commentary. It helps to be popular and hot? Huh. Wow.
Whoa, incredible, no way the rest of us could've come up with that kind of trenchant commentary. It helps to be popular and hot? Huh. Wow.
How do we perceive different voices as saying the same thing?
In Episode 168, @alex-andorra.bsky.social talks with Santiago Barreda about speech perception, vowel normalization, & Bayesian multilevel models for repeated-measures data.
🎧 learnbayesstats.com/episode/baye...
#bayesian #newepisode
In Episode 168, @alex-andorra.bsky.social talks with Santiago Barreda about speech perception, vowel normalization, & Bayesian multilevel models for repeated-measures data.
🎧 learnbayesstats.com/episode/baye...
#bayesian #newepisode
Speech Perception & Multilevel Models, Santiago Barreda
Santiago Barreda explains Bayesian multilevel models for linguistics, vowel normalization as perceptual constancy, and what listeners infer from voices.
learnbayesstats.com
November 10, 2026 at 12:56 PM
How do we perceive different voices as saying the same thing?
In Episode 168, @alex-andorra.bsky.social talks with Santiago Barreda about speech perception, vowel normalization, & Bayesian multilevel models for repeated-measures data.
🎧 learnbayesstats.com/episode/baye...
#bayesian #newepisode
In Episode 168, @alex-andorra.bsky.social talks with Santiago Barreda about speech perception, vowel normalization, & Bayesian multilevel models for repeated-measures data.
🎧 learnbayesstats.com/episode/baye...
#bayesian #newepisode
It is an abuse of Bayesian statistics, and it is pseudo-statistics, thats what it is.
These Bayesian models are kind of clever in that they allow you to make predictions of future events with some probability. But you must update your model in light of new information. But Shor won‘t.
These Bayesian models are kind of clever in that they allow you to make predictions of future events with some probability. But you must update your model in light of new information. But Shor won‘t.
November 6, 2026 at 3:39 PM
It is an abuse of Bayesian statistics, and it is pseudo-statistics, thats what it is.
These Bayesian models are kind of clever in that they allow you to make predictions of future events with some probability. But you must update your model in light of new information. But Shor won‘t.
These Bayesian models are kind of clever in that they allow you to make predictions of future events with some probability. But you must update your model in light of new information. But Shor won‘t.
Discrete choice theory considers how do entities make decisions. Unfortunately, the practical application of discrete choice models is limited by contextual nuance and structural redundancies. In my latest chapter, I work through the foundations of robust, Bayesian discrete choice modeling.
November 10, 2026 at 5:38 AM
Discrete choice theory considers how do entities make decisions. Unfortunately, the practical application of discrete choice models is limited by contextual nuance and structural redundancies. In my latest chapter, I work through the foundations of robust, Bayesian discrete choice modeling.
This study unveils Probabilistically Robust Minimax-Regret Equilibrium (PR-MRE), a new strategy for adversarial team games under asymmetric information that significantly enhances robustness against distribution shifts compared to Bayesian Nash. https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.09993
Beyond Bayesian Nash: Learning Minimax-Regret Equilibria for Adversarial Team Games under Asymmetric Information
ArXiv link for Beyond Bayesian Nash: Learning Minimax-Regret Equilibria for Adversarial Team Games under Asymmetric Information
arxiv.org
November 10, 2026 at 4:30 AM
This study unveils Probabilistically Robust Minimax-Regret Equilibrium (PR-MRE), a new strategy for adversarial team games under asymmetric information that significantly enhances robustness against distribution shifts compared to Bayesian Nash. https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.09993
Bayesian WERKflow
RuPaul's Iconic Fist Pump
ALT: RuPaul's Iconic Fist Pump
static.klipy.com
November 11, 2026 at 5:16 PM
Bayesian WERKflow
Oh God yes. It used to be that to be a data guy you presumably had training in a discipline. Now it often comes down to can you program a Bayesian model
November 10, 2026 at 10:26 PM
Oh God yes. It used to be that to be a data guy you presumably had training in a discipline. Now it often comes down to can you program a Bayesian model
Updating the Onion's classic "I'm like a chocoholic, but for booze" to "I'm like a Bayesian, but for Buddhism"
November 11, 2026 at 11:06 AM
Updating the Onion's classic "I'm like a chocoholic, but for booze" to "I'm like a Bayesian, but for Buddhism"