I can say with certainty that OpenAI cannot afford this. To do this before IPO is like putting a gun to your head and trying to ransom someone. Customers must be flipping their shit at their current token bills. And according to SemiAnalysis OpenAI lets you burn $14k of tokens on a $200 a month plan
June 11, 2026 at 3:37 AM
I can say with certainty that OpenAI cannot afford this. To do this before IPO is like putting a gun to your head and trying to ransom someone. Customers must be flipping their shit at their current token bills. And according to SemiAnalysis OpenAI lets you burn $14k of tokens on a $200 a month plan
does anyone at SemiAnalysis have a physics or engineering degree?
June 11, 2026 at 12:07 AM
does anyone at SemiAnalysis have a physics or engineering degree?
Even I’m not sure this will end well. Graphics courtesy of Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis.
September 23, 2025 at 5:42 AM
Even I’m not sure this will end well. Graphics courtesy of Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis.
everything semianalysis reports sounds insane
you’ll hate this. apparently Meta think they can’t afford *not* to build more compute considering what they can sell it for
newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/meta-compu...
newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/meta-compu...
July 5, 2026 at 12:56 AM
everything semianalysis reports sounds insane
semianalysis finally did a thread on inference margins (please do a full post) and I didn't know about this at all. "interactivity" is a stupid name for tokens per user per second, but it sounds like essentially by making generation slower they save a lot of money
xcancel.com/SemiAnalysis...
xcancel.com/SemiAnalysis...
March 27, 2026 at 10:01 PM
semianalysis finally did a thread on inference margins (please do a full post) and I didn't know about this at all. "interactivity" is a stupid name for tokens per user per second, but it sounds like essentially by making generation slower they save a lot of money
xcancel.com/SemiAnalysis...
xcancel.com/SemiAnalysis...
if you enjoyed spreadsheet people discourse, just wait till Anthropic releases their S-1 in a week showing a profitable Q2 (already reported but people wave it off) *and* a profitable Q3 (predicted by SemiAnalysis) and then lists a couple weeks later at $2T
August 22, 2026 at 2:43 PM
if you enjoyed spreadsheet people discourse, just wait till Anthropic releases their S-1 in a week showing a profitable Q2 (already reported but people wave it off) *and* a profitable Q3 (predicted by SemiAnalysis) and then lists a couple weeks later at $2T
SemiAnalysis saying frontier labs can do $100 billion in revs per GW
August 8, 2026 at 5:47 PM
SemiAnalysis saying frontier labs can do $100 billion in revs per GW
Why are In-n-Outs draining the oceans????
January 16, 2026 at 11:53 PM
Why are In-n-Outs draining the oceans????
gross margins 80% which is the number semianalysis has. But i feel like the caveat is "before revenue share with partners" which could be gigantic for all we know
September 13, 2026 at 10:43 PM
gross margins 80% which is the number semianalysis has. But i feel like the caveat is "before revenue share with partners" which could be gigantic for all we know
The grandiose projections you're seeing these days about "off-grid" data centers are almost certainly delusional -- produced, as @jigarshahdc.bsky.social says, by "28yos using Claude" rather than people with actual experience in the power sector.
The off-grid data center fantasy
A new SemiAnalysis forecast shows a coming surge of off-grid data centers. Are the numbers realistic?
www.latitudemedia.com
July 18, 2026 at 6:33 PM
The grandiose projections you're seeing these days about "off-grid" data centers are almost certainly delusional -- produced, as @jigarshahdc.bsky.social says, by "28yos using Claude" rather than people with actual experience in the power sector.
Intel Panther Lake Teardown – SemiAnalysis
Looking inside Intel 18A and Intel’s Panther Lake. A free SemiAnalysis STEEL teardown.
Looking inside Intel 18A and Intel’s Panther Lake. A free SemiAnalysis STEEL teardown.
Intel Panther Lake Teardown – SemiAnalysis
Looking inside Intel 18A and Intel’s Panther Lake. A free SemiAnalysis STEEL teardown.
news-area.com
September 29, 2026 at 4:04 AM
Intel Panther Lake Teardown – SemiAnalysis
Looking inside Intel 18A and Intel’s Panther Lake. A free SemiAnalysis STEEL teardown.
Looking inside Intel 18A and Intel’s Panther Lake. A free SemiAnalysis STEEL teardown.
New video with SemiAnalysis: www.youtube.com/watch?v=a-9e...
Top 10 largest AI Datacenters in 2026
YouTube video by SemiAnalysis
www.youtube.com
January 6, 2026 at 11:12 PM
New video with SemiAnalysis: www.youtube.com/watch?v=a-9e...
is this like $20B-$30B? where are they getting the cash??
January 3, 2026 at 5:55 PM
is this like $20B-$30B? where are they getting the cash??
Some absolutely insane numbers here.
July 14, 2025 at 3:02 PM
Some absolutely insane numbers here.
A thread on this and the Semianalysis blog post after having more time to stare at it.
newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/inferencem...
newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/inferencem...
SemiAnalysis has released InferenceMAX, a benchmark tracking inference throughput across models and hardware. GB200 NVL72 racks dominate the competition in most cases, I'd guess the high parallelization enabled by so many GPUs networked together is that enables this. inferencemax.semianalysis.com
October 14, 2025 at 7:22 PM
A thread on this and the Semianalysis blog post after having more time to stare at it.
newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/inferencem...
newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/inferencem...
Btw I was on the Lex podcast with my friend Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis to discuss the state of AI.
youtu.be/_1f-o0nqpEI?...
youtu.be/_1f-o0nqpEI?...
DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters | Lex Fridman Podcast #459
YouTube video by Lex Fridman
youtu.be
February 3, 2025 at 12:21 AM
Btw I was on the Lex podcast with my friend Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis to discuss the state of AI.
youtu.be/_1f-o0nqpEI?...
youtu.be/_1f-o0nqpEI?...
This post from SemiAnalysis is well worth reading, to get a direct insight into how the AI industry is completely disconnected from the climate consequences of what they're doing.
September 13, 2026 at 6:19 AM
This post from SemiAnalysis is well worth reading, to get a direct insight into how the AI industry is completely disconnected from the climate consequences of what they're doing.
Why "Dark Output", the AI-generated economic value that is currently invisible to national statistics, may be one of the hardest measurement problems in history (SemiAnalysis)
Main Link | Techmeme Permalink
Main Link | Techmeme Permalink
May 30, 2026 at 11:46 PM
Why "Dark Output", the AI-generated economic value that is currently invisible to national statistics, may be one of the hardest measurement problems in history (SemiAnalysis)
Main Link | Techmeme Permalink
Main Link | Techmeme Permalink
Fascinating piece by SemiAnalysis
Yes, electricity prices rose ~15% near new hyperscaler buildouts
No, it’s not the fault of AI datacenters. It turns out to be a fairly complex regulatory mechanism that’s badly broken
open.substack.com/pub/semianal...
Yes, electricity prices rose ~15% near new hyperscaler buildouts
No, it’s not the fault of AI datacenters. It turns out to be a fairly complex regulatory mechanism that’s badly broken
open.substack.com/pub/semianal...
Are AI Datacenters Increasing Electric Bills for American Households?
Power prices misconception, PJM's poor market design, Capacity prices 9.3x growth,
open.substack.com
May 18, 2026 at 7:57 PM
Fascinating piece by SemiAnalysis
Yes, electricity prices rose ~15% near new hyperscaler buildouts
No, it’s not the fault of AI datacenters. It turns out to be a fairly complex regulatory mechanism that’s badly broken
open.substack.com/pub/semianal...
Yes, electricity prices rose ~15% near new hyperscaler buildouts
No, it’s not the fault of AI datacenters. It turns out to be a fairly complex regulatory mechanism that’s badly broken
open.substack.com/pub/semianal...
Benchmarking AMD's MI300X and Nvidia's H100 and H200; in theory, AMD's GPU has advantages in specs and Total Cost of Ownership, but software bugs hold it back (Dylan Patel/SemiAnalysis)
Main Link | Techmeme Permalink
Main Link | Techmeme Permalink
December 25, 2024 at 9:30 AM
Benchmarking AMD's MI300X and Nvidia's H100 and H200; in theory, AMD's GPU has advantages in specs and Total Cost of Ownership, but software bugs hold it back (Dylan Patel/SemiAnalysis)
Main Link | Techmeme Permalink
Main Link | Techmeme Permalink
Dylan Patel, Founder of SemiAnalysis, on THE NVIDIA WAY
December 19, 2024 at 1:32 PM
Dylan Patel, Founder of SemiAnalysis, on THE NVIDIA WAY
Damn, SemiAnalysis nuked my stock again. My account just got obliterated.
June 9, 2026 at 10:18 PM
Damn, SemiAnalysis nuked my stock again. My account just got obliterated.