In the World Cup, France and Argentine will start into the tournament today. Both teams are considered overall contenders for the trophy and, according to my model, also strong favorites in their current matches.
#SoccerPredictor #WorldCup2026 #DataAnalysis
#SoccerPredictor #WorldCup2026 #DataAnalysis
June 16, 2026 at 2:48 PM
In the World Cup, France and Argentine will start into the tournament today. Both teams are considered overall contenders for the trophy and, according to my model, also strong favorites in their current matches.
#SoccerPredictor #WorldCup2026 #DataAnalysis
#SoccerPredictor #WorldCup2026 #DataAnalysis
Next stage with a lot of good games!📊⚽
GER-DEN (ELO sum: 13.5),
FRA-BEL (15.3),
AUT-TUR (13.3) are standing out.
SUI-ITA could be interesting as a close game, too.
Two days of break for players and watchers now! 😴💭🏆
#EURO2024 #SoccerPredictor #ELO #EM2024
GER-DEN (ELO sum: 13.5),
FRA-BEL (15.3),
AUT-TUR (13.3) are standing out.
SUI-ITA could be interesting as a close game, too.
Two days of break for players and watchers now! 😴💭🏆
#EURO2024 #SoccerPredictor #ELO #EM2024
June 26, 2024 at 9:32 PM
Next stage with a lot of good games!📊⚽
GER-DEN (ELO sum: 13.5),
FRA-BEL (15.3),
AUT-TUR (13.3) are standing out.
SUI-ITA could be interesting as a close game, too.
Two days of break for players and watchers now! 😴💭🏆
#EURO2024 #SoccerPredictor #ELO #EM2024
GER-DEN (ELO sum: 13.5),
FRA-BEL (15.3),
AUT-TUR (13.3) are standing out.
SUI-ITA could be interesting as a close game, too.
Two days of break for players and watchers now! 😴💭🏆
#EURO2024 #SoccerPredictor #ELO #EM2024
#SoccerPredictor: Bundesliga (men's soccer) is starting again tonight. My Elo-like model now assumes a overall tight field: Bayern is favored against Hamburg only by 4 to 1. Additionally, *tension* will be monitored to indicate the need for strong adjustments.
#Bundesliga #Soccer #DataAnalysis
#Bundesliga #Soccer #DataAnalysis
August 22, 2025 at 6:19 PM
#SoccerPredictor: Bundesliga (men's soccer) is starting again tonight. My Elo-like model now assumes a overall tight field: Bayern is favored against Hamburg only by 4 to 1. Additionally, *tension* will be monitored to indicate the need for strong adjustments.
#Bundesliga #Soccer #DataAnalysis
#Bundesliga #Soccer #DataAnalysis
CAN really made it to the quarter finals of women's soccer at #Paris2024! Next, they face GER, with reasonable chances. The winner then challenges USA, if those prevail against JPN. ⚽ ✨ #wolyfoot #SoccerPredictor #Olympics
July 31, 2024 at 9:13 PM
CAN really made it to the quarter finals of women's soccer at #Paris2024! Next, they face GER, with reasonable chances. The winner then challenges USA, if those prevail against JPN. ⚽ ✨ #wolyfoot #SoccerPredictor #Olympics
📊⚽For late people in the betting games, here are the probabilites my model has calculated for round 3 of #EURO2024.
ESP and POR are set on first places in Group B / F, and POL on fourth place in Group D. Still, every match matters. 👍 #NoGamblingPolicy #SoccerPredictor #EM2024
ESP and POR are set on first places in Group B / F, and POL on fourth place in Group D. Still, every match matters. 👍 #NoGamblingPolicy #SoccerPredictor #EM2024
June 23, 2024 at 8:52 AM
📊⚽For late people in the betting games, here are the probabilites my model has calculated for round 3 of #EURO2024.
ESP and POR are set on first places in Group B / F, and POL on fourth place in Group D. Still, every match matters. 👍 #NoGamblingPolicy #SoccerPredictor #EM2024
ESP and POR are set on first places in Group B / F, and POL on fourth place in Group D. Still, every match matters. 👍 #NoGamblingPolicy #SoccerPredictor #EM2024
#Paris2024 update: women's soccer match for gold! ⚽
Yesterday, Germany defeated Spain with 1-0 and won bronze medals. Today, it is USA-BRA with 61-39 probabilities. Again, there is a reasonable chance for extra time and a shoot-out. 📊
Keep tuned! 📺
#SoccerPredictor #wolyfoot #Olympics #DataAnalysis
Yesterday, Germany defeated Spain with 1-0 and won bronze medals. Today, it is USA-BRA with 61-39 probabilities. Again, there is a reasonable chance for extra time and a shoot-out. 📊
Keep tuned! 📺
#SoccerPredictor #wolyfoot #Olympics #DataAnalysis
August 10, 2024 at 10:49 AM
#Paris2024 update: women's soccer match for gold! ⚽
Yesterday, Germany defeated Spain with 1-0 and won bronze medals. Today, it is USA-BRA with 61-39 probabilities. Again, there is a reasonable chance for extra time and a shoot-out. 📊
Keep tuned! 📺
#SoccerPredictor #wolyfoot #Olympics #DataAnalysis
Yesterday, Germany defeated Spain with 1-0 and won bronze medals. Today, it is USA-BRA with 61-39 probabilities. Again, there is a reasonable chance for extra time and a shoot-out. 📊
Keep tuned! 📺
#SoccerPredictor #wolyfoot #Olympics #DataAnalysis
Again, here are the probabilities my Elo model gives out for this week's UCL matches. PSG are favorites against Bayern, while Liverpool vs Real looks like a close thing.
#SoccerPredictor #UCL #ChampionsLeague
#SoccerPredictor #UCL #ChampionsLeague
November 4, 2025 at 10:37 AM
Again, here are the probabilities my Elo model gives out for this week's UCL matches. PSG are favorites against Bayern, while Liverpool vs Real looks like a close thing.
#SoccerPredictor #UCL #ChampionsLeague
#SoccerPredictor #UCL #ChampionsLeague
#Paris2024 update to the women's soccer competition! 🚨⚽
With a last minute win, CAN can still advance to quarter finales. They need to win against COL, though, for which my model gives a probability of 55%. 📊
#SoccerPredictor #wolyfoot #Olympics #WomensSoccer
With a last minute win, CAN can still advance to quarter finales. They need to win against COL, though, for which my model gives a probability of 55%. 📊
#SoccerPredictor #wolyfoot #Olympics #WomensSoccer
July 28, 2024 at 9:32 PM
#Paris2024 update to the women's soccer competition! 🚨⚽
With a last minute win, CAN can still advance to quarter finales. They need to win against COL, though, for which my model gives a probability of 55%. 📊
#SoccerPredictor #wolyfoot #Olympics #WomensSoccer
With a last minute win, CAN can still advance to quarter finales. They need to win against COL, though, for which my model gives a probability of 55%. 📊
#SoccerPredictor #wolyfoot #Olympics #WomensSoccer
📊⚽ #SoccerPredictor for the quarter finals of #EURO2024!
Here are the probabilities which model A gives the different outcomes after 90 minutes.
📺 All matches should be quite good, ELO sums are
ESP-GER: 16.7;
POR-FRA: 15.0;
ENG-SUI: 14.0;
NED-TUR: 13.3
#EM2024 #DataAnalysis
Here are the probabilities which model A gives the different outcomes after 90 minutes.
📺 All matches should be quite good, ELO sums are
ESP-GER: 16.7;
POR-FRA: 15.0;
ENG-SUI: 14.0;
NED-TUR: 13.3
#EM2024 #DataAnalysis
July 4, 2024 at 2:15 PM
📊⚽ #SoccerPredictor for the quarter finals of #EURO2024!
Here are the probabilities which model A gives the different outcomes after 90 minutes.
📺 All matches should be quite good, ELO sums are
ESP-GER: 16.7;
POR-FRA: 15.0;
ENG-SUI: 14.0;
NED-TUR: 13.3
#EM2024 #DataAnalysis
Here are the probabilities which model A gives the different outcomes after 90 minutes.
📺 All matches should be quite good, ELO sums are
ESP-GER: 16.7;
POR-FRA: 15.0;
ENG-SUI: 14.0;
NED-TUR: 13.3
#EM2024 #DataAnalysis
With regards to the input ratings, the spread has grown during the competition. This could mean there the input could have been more risky. 🤔
Here is the final tier list!
S-tier: USA ✨🥇
A-tier: GER 🥉, CAN, JPN, BRA 🥈.
B-tier: ESP, FRA, COL.
#SoccerPredictor #Paris2024 #wolyfoot #DataAnalysis
Here is the final tier list!
S-tier: USA ✨🥇
A-tier: GER 🥉, CAN, JPN, BRA 🥈.
B-tier: ESP, FRA, COL.
#SoccerPredictor #Paris2024 #wolyfoot #DataAnalysis
August 10, 2024 at 5:16 PM
With regards to the input ratings, the spread has grown during the competition. This could mean there the input could have been more risky. 🤔
Here is the final tier list!
S-tier: USA ✨🥇
A-tier: GER 🥉, CAN, JPN, BRA 🥈.
B-tier: ESP, FRA, COL.
#SoccerPredictor #Paris2024 #wolyfoot #DataAnalysis
Here is the final tier list!
S-tier: USA ✨🥇
A-tier: GER 🥉, CAN, JPN, BRA 🥈.
B-tier: ESP, FRA, COL.
#SoccerPredictor #Paris2024 #wolyfoot #DataAnalysis
#EURO2024: Only three matches left in round 2! 📊⚽
Here are the #ELO probabilites for June 25. 🇳🇱 🇦🇹 NED-AUT will be the match to watch: high stakes and high sum of ELO ratings.
Another question: Will the English team finally have a strong showing in this group stage? 🤔🇬🇧 #SoccerPredictor #EM2024
Here are the #ELO probabilites for June 25. 🇳🇱 🇦🇹 NED-AUT will be the match to watch: high stakes and high sum of ELO ratings.
Another question: Will the English team finally have a strong showing in this group stage? 🤔🇬🇧 #SoccerPredictor #EM2024
June 22, 2024 at 10:42 AM
#EURO2024: Only three matches left in round 2! 📊⚽
Here are the #ELO probabilites for June 25. 🇳🇱 🇦🇹 NED-AUT will be the match to watch: high stakes and high sum of ELO ratings.
Another question: Will the English team finally have a strong showing in this group stage? 🤔🇬🇧 #SoccerPredictor #EM2024
Here are the #ELO probabilites for June 25. 🇳🇱 🇦🇹 NED-AUT will be the match to watch: high stakes and high sum of ELO ratings.
Another question: Will the English team finally have a strong showing in this group stage? 🤔🇬🇧 #SoccerPredictor #EM2024
It's the third matchday of UCL. Here are the odds calculated by my Elo-style model.
This year, I test if such a model suffices or if one needs to incorporate results from the leagues in which the teams are also participating.
#soccer #SoccerPredictor #UCL #ChampionsLeague
This year, I test if such a model suffices or if one needs to incorporate results from the leagues in which the teams are also participating.
#soccer #SoccerPredictor #UCL #ChampionsLeague
October 20, 2025 at 5:55 PM
It's the third matchday of UCL. Here are the odds calculated by my Elo-style model.
This year, I test if such a model suffices or if one needs to incorporate results from the leagues in which the teams are also participating.
#soccer #SoccerPredictor #UCL #ChampionsLeague
This year, I test if such a model suffices or if one needs to incorporate results from the leagues in which the teams are also participating.
#soccer #SoccerPredictor #UCL #ChampionsLeague
This week's UCL sees the two best-performing teams face off: Arsenal vs Bayern. My model makes it out to be a very close match!
The third club with the perfect-until-now 12 points is Inter Milan which are travelling to play against Atletico Madrid.
#UCL #ChampionsLeague #soccer #SoccerPredictor
The third club with the perfect-until-now 12 points is Inter Milan which are travelling to play against Atletico Madrid.
#UCL #ChampionsLeague #soccer #SoccerPredictor
November 25, 2025 at 12:39 PM
This week's UCL sees the two best-performing teams face off: Arsenal vs Bayern. My model makes it out to be a very close match!
The third club with the perfect-until-now 12 points is Inter Milan which are travelling to play against Atletico Madrid.
#UCL #ChampionsLeague #soccer #SoccerPredictor
The third club with the perfect-until-now 12 points is Inter Milan which are travelling to play against Atletico Madrid.
#UCL #ChampionsLeague #soccer #SoccerPredictor
The UCL match-ups have been drawn today. The Elo-style model has been applied and shows that the effect of luck seems to be limited. Atletico Madrid and Eintracht Frankfurt might have had the worst luck, losing one or two points to the ideal value.
#soccer #SoccerPredictor #UCL #ChampionsLeague
#soccer #SoccerPredictor #UCL #ChampionsLeague
August 28, 2025 at 6:53 PM
The UCL match-ups have been drawn today. The Elo-style model has been applied and shows that the effect of luck seems to be limited. Atletico Madrid and Eintracht Frankfurt might have had the worst luck, losing one or two points to the ideal value.
#soccer #SoccerPredictor #UCL #ChampionsLeague
#soccer #SoccerPredictor #UCL #ChampionsLeague
#Paris2024 update!
Today is the day of the first matches in the women's soccer tournament ⚽. Using the same method as for #EURO2024, I give you the rough probabilities of their outcomes 📊. Missing expert ratings, the initial ELO numbers are determined from the FIFA World Ranking.
#SoccerPredictor
Today is the day of the first matches in the women's soccer tournament ⚽. Using the same method as for #EURO2024, I give you the rough probabilities of their outcomes 📊. Missing expert ratings, the initial ELO numbers are determined from the FIFA World Ranking.
#SoccerPredictor
July 25, 2024 at 5:39 AM
#Paris2024 update!
Today is the day of the first matches in the women's soccer tournament ⚽. Using the same method as for #EURO2024, I give you the rough probabilities of their outcomes 📊. Missing expert ratings, the initial ELO numbers are determined from the FIFA World Ranking.
#SoccerPredictor
Today is the day of the first matches in the women's soccer tournament ⚽. Using the same method as for #EURO2024, I give you the rough probabilities of their outcomes 📊. Missing expert ratings, the initial ELO numbers are determined from the FIFA World Ranking.
#SoccerPredictor
And for fun (and because of MSV Duisburg's participation), I also let a model run on 3. Liga. This is even harder to predict because expert opinion is hard to find. The inputs I used are derived from last season's performances.
#dritteliga #Fussball #SoccerPredictor #DataAnalysis
#dritteliga #Fussball #SoccerPredictor #DataAnalysis
August 1, 2025 at 2:46 PM
And for fun (and because of MSV Duisburg's participation), I also let a model run on 3. Liga. This is even harder to predict because expert opinion is hard to find. The inputs I used are derived from last season's performances.
#dritteliga #Fussball #SoccerPredictor #DataAnalysis
#dritteliga #Fussball #SoccerPredictor #DataAnalysis
Today, men's UEL has the first matches of its league stage. As a best guess, I use a tiered list of strengths to assume where the teams are standing. The English club Aston Villa seems to be the likeliest to win the trophy.
#SoccerPredictor #UEL #UEFA #EuropeLeague #BaseOdds #soccer
#SoccerPredictor #UEL #UEFA #EuropeLeague #BaseOdds #soccer
September 24, 2025 at 3:55 PM
Today, men's UEL has the first matches of its league stage. As a best guess, I use a tiered list of strengths to assume where the teams are standing. The English club Aston Villa seems to be the likeliest to win the trophy.
#SoccerPredictor #UEL #UEFA #EuropeLeague #BaseOdds #soccer
#SoccerPredictor #UEL #UEFA #EuropeLeague #BaseOdds #soccer
The Elo-style World Cup model looks to have worked quite well, with the lowest ranks among the eight quarter-finals are 15 and 16 (Norway and Switzerland). Addtionally, all Top 4 teams are still present.
#SoccerPredictor #WorldCup2026 #DataAnalysis
#SoccerPredictor #WorldCup2026 #DataAnalysis
July 9, 2026 at 9:26 AM
The Elo-style World Cup model looks to have worked quite well, with the lowest ranks among the eight quarter-finals are 15 and 16 (Norway and Switzerland). Addtionally, all Top 4 teams are still present.
#SoccerPredictor #WorldCup2026 #DataAnalysis
#SoccerPredictor #WorldCup2026 #DataAnalysis
The World Cup's new Round of 32 saw some slight surprises, but my model sees no upsets in the outcomes "after 90 minutes". For example, Germany drawing against Paraguay in regular time had been calculated to be quite possible. #SoccerPredictor #WorldCup2026 #DataAnalysis
July 4, 2026 at 7:04 AM
The World Cup's new Round of 32 saw some slight surprises, but my model sees no upsets in the outcomes "after 90 minutes". For example, Germany drawing against Paraguay in regular time had been calculated to be quite possible. #SoccerPredictor #WorldCup2026 #DataAnalysis
In today's World Cup matches, Germany has good chances against Cote d'Ivoire, according to my simple Elo-style model. In the match already-played, Netherlands made good on its status as favorite against Sweden.
#SoccerPredictor #DataAnalysis #WorldCup
#SoccerPredictor #DataAnalysis #WorldCup
June 20, 2026 at 7:21 PM
In today's World Cup matches, Germany has good chances against Cote d'Ivoire, according to my simple Elo-style model. In the match already-played, Netherlands made good on its status as favorite against Sweden.
#SoccerPredictor #DataAnalysis #WorldCup
#SoccerPredictor #DataAnalysis #WorldCup
Today, the World Cup features the last fixtures in the first matchday. My model sees England vs Croatia as reasonably close. #SoccerPredictor #WorldCup2026 #DataAnalysis
June 17, 2026 at 1:54 PM
Today, the World Cup features the last fixtures in the first matchday. My model sees England vs Croatia as reasonably close. #SoccerPredictor #WorldCup2026 #DataAnalysis
#SoccerPredictor: German DFB-Pokal is going into Round 2. Some little tweaks to the strength input try to compensate for league performances, which will help to test if a cup-only method predicts worse than an overall-strength model.
The closest big match is Frankfurt vs Dortmund.
#DFBPokal
The closest big match is Frankfurt vs Dortmund.
#DFBPokal
October 28, 2025 at 4:23 PM
#SoccerPredictor: German DFB-Pokal is going into Round 2. Some little tweaks to the strength input try to compensate for league performances, which will help to test if a cup-only method predicts worse than an overall-strength model.
The closest big match is Frankfurt vs Dortmund.
#DFBPokal
The closest big match is Frankfurt vs Dortmund.
#DFBPokal
Upcoming: UCL Matchday 2. I run an account on IG that applies an Elo-style model to the matches.
www.instagram.com/p/DPON-kqDYq...
#SoccerPredictor #ChampionsLeague #UCL #soccer #BaseOdds
www.instagram.com/p/DPON-kqDYq...
#SoccerPredictor #ChampionsLeague #UCL #soccer #BaseOdds
September 30, 2025 at 10:01 AM
Upcoming: UCL Matchday 2. I run an account on IG that applies an Elo-style model to the matches.
www.instagram.com/p/DPON-kqDYq...
#SoccerPredictor #ChampionsLeague #UCL #soccer #BaseOdds
www.instagram.com/p/DPON-kqDYq...
#SoccerPredictor #ChampionsLeague #UCL #soccer #BaseOdds
To give rough predictions for UCL (starting today), the strengths of all teams is the key input. From that, the Elo-style model I use calculates odds for each match.
#SoccerPredictor #ChampionsLeague #UCL #soccer #BaseOdds
#SoccerPredictor #ChampionsLeague #UCL #soccer #BaseOdds
September 16, 2025 at 9:58 AM
To give rough predictions for UCL (starting today), the strengths of all teams is the key input. From that, the Elo-style model I use calculates odds for each match.
#SoccerPredictor #ChampionsLeague #UCL #soccer #BaseOdds
#SoccerPredictor #ChampionsLeague #UCL #soccer #BaseOdds
#SoccerPredictor: To test the model's robustness, I put the strengths of Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga, 3. Liga into a model for DFB Pokal. After all matches, the model can then be evaluated. #dfbpokal #bundesliga #zweitebundesliga #dritteliga #baseodds
August 16, 2025 at 9:58 AM
#SoccerPredictor: To test the model's robustness, I put the strengths of Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga, 3. Liga into a model for DFB Pokal. After all matches, the model can then be evaluated. #dfbpokal #bundesliga #zweitebundesliga #dritteliga #baseodds