Da es bei #Bohndesliga International von #RocketBeans diskutiert wurde: Nach den Elo-Zahlen hat PSG tatsächlich durch die Ziehung einen Nachteil gegenüber Bayern von 5 erwarteten Punkte bei etwa derselben Spielstärke. Die beiden sind aber auch die stärksten Outlier. #baseodds #UCL #ChampionsLeague

Today, men's UEL has the first matches of its league stage. As a best guess, I use a tiered list of strengths to assume where the teams are standing. The English club Aston Villa seems to be the likeliest to win the trophy.
#SoccerPredictor #UEL #UEFA #EuropeLeague #BaseOdds #soccer

Upcoming: UCL Matchday 2. I run an account on IG that applies an Elo-style model to the matches.
www.instagram.com/p/DPON-kqDYq...
#SoccerPredictor #ChampionsLeague #UCL #soccer #BaseOdds

To give rough predictions for UCL (starting today), the strengths of all teams is the key input. From that, the Elo-style model I use calculates odds for each match.
#SoccerPredictor #ChampionsLeague #UCL #soccer #BaseOdds

#SoccerPredictor: To test the model's robustness, I put the strengths of Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga, 3. Liga into a model for DFB Pokal. After all matches, the model can then be evaluated. #dfbpokal #bundesliga #zweitebundesliga #dritteliga #baseodds

Before DFB-Pokal starts in two weeks, there will be already two rounds of 2. Bundesliga. I applied my base-odds model to it. The input strengths are tiers from last season, modified after reading up on expertise re changes during the summer break.
#Soccer #SoccerPredictor #BaseOdds #ZweiteBundesliga

#ClubWorldCup: The round of sixteen saw some surprises. Now one team in the final will not be one of the former favorites.
#fifacwc #baseodds #SoccerPredictor

The next round has some cool match-ups:
PSG-Botafogo, Flamengo-Chelsea, Bayern-Boca, Sundowns-Dortmund, River Plate-Monterrey, Real Madrid-Pacucha.
#ClubWorldCup #SportsData #BaseOdds

#SoccerPredictor: Club World Cup incoming!
This tournament will see clubs taking each other's measure on the global scale. While European teams are considered the best, there might be surprises.
Here are the numbers used in my base-odds model, and the resulting probabilities.
#ClubWorldCup #BaseOdds

On Threads, you find me reviewing the soccer model I have done a trial run for in this Bundesliga season:
www.threads.com/@baseodds/po...
#DataAnalysis #SoccerPredictor #BaseOdds #EloModel

The second one is English-language and posts about Bundesliga and Champions League:
www.instagram.com/baseodds/

The UEFA #ChampionsLeague (for men's #soccer clubs) is returning in 11 days!
The new format sees each team play against eight opponents, drawn from ranking-based pots for equal chances. My model validates the fairness: each team's odds depend mainly on their own strength.
#baseodds #DataAnalysis

Tomorrow, round 2 of German football #Bundesliga starts. ⚽
Here are the odds my model is expecting for each match. 📊
If you only watch one game, make it Leverkusen-Leipzig! ✨
#SoccerPredictor #baseodds #BuLi

C-3PO : Sir, the possibility of successfully navigating an asteroid field is approximately 3,720 to 1.
Han Solo : Never tell me the odds. As a language-based model, you probably just assumed that sounded close enough.
C-3PO:
C-3PO: I miss my little number cruncher.
#StarWars #odds #baseodds #LLM

You can follow this modeling endeavour on instagram, at
baseodds (English language) and
baseodds_de (German).
Here is the English-language account:
www.instagram.com/baseodds/
#BaseOdds #SoccerPredictor #DataAnalysis #SoccerStats #Bundesliga #BuLi #Elo

This season, I will try my Elo-based model for German football league #Bundesliga! ⚽📊
Here are the probabilities the model gives for the first matches. I use them in WDR's free #AlleGegenPistor betting game. Hoping for a cool season, have fun!
#SoccerPredictor #BuLi #BaseOdds

Bei #AlleGegenPistor habe ich noch schnell den ersten Spieltag getippt. Viel Erfolg an alle, die teilnehmen! ⚽ #SoccerPredictor #NoGamblingPolicy #Bundesliga #BuLi #BaseOdds