The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.75 per cent today as policymakers wait for more clarity on how tariffs will impact the economy.

Industry leaders say shifting U.S. trade policy is disrupting shipments, pricing and sales across the wine supply chain.

Industry leaders say shifting U.S. trade policy is disrupting shipments, pricing and sales across the wine supply chain.

Industry leaders warn that ongoing legal and market instability threatens €177 million in sales and deepens sector anxiety

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September opens in the red for US stocks as tariff uncertainty clouds Asia forecasts  Mitrade

FRANKFURT (Reuters) -The European Central Bank left its main interest rate unchanged at 2% as expected on Thursday, taking a break after a year of policy easing to wait for clarity over Europe’s future trade relations with the United States. With inflation now back at its 2% goal and interest rates down from 4% to 2% since June 2024, the ECB is not under pressure to act swiftly and policymakers offered no clues about their next move, keeping investors guessing. Sticking with its mantra of a meeting-by-meeting approach, the euro zone’s central bank said it would not pre-commit to any interest rate path and that decisions would be made based on incoming data. "The incoming information is broadly in line with the Governing Council’s previous assessment of the inflation outlook," the ECB said after a two-day policy meeting. "Domestic price pressures have continued to ease, with wages growing more slowly." Investors continued to bet on at least one more rate cut later this year, partly because U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war is weighing on growth and ultimately on prices. The outcome of European Union-U.S. trade talks remains uncertain but two diplomats with inside information said the two were heading towards a deal that would result in a broad tariff of 15% applying to EU goods. That would be worse than the ECB’s baseline scenario but better than the "severe" alternative it contemplated when it published its last economic projections in early June. Such an outcome would weigh on growth and probably push inflation lower, adding to the case for the ECB to provide more support to the economy through a further rate cut, especially as price growth is seen dipping below its 2% target over the next 18 months. But policymakers can afford to remain on the sidelines at least until the autumn and possibly longer. The 20-country euro zone economy is holding up well and fresh PMI survey data out just hours before the ECB’s policy decision suggested the bloc is weathering the trade chaos. "With uncertainty all around, an economy showing slight growth, increasing employment and weak inflation sounds surprisingly benign," ING economist Bert Colijn said. Attention will now turn to ECB President Christine Lagarde’s 1245 GMT news conference, at which she is likely to face questions about future rate cuts, the strength of the euro and the impact of tariffs. With valuations skyrocketing in 2024, many investors are uneasy putting more money into stocks. Unsure where to invest next? Get access to our proven portfolios and discover high-potential opportunities. In 2024 alone, ProPicks AI identified 2 stocks that surged over 150%, 4 additional stocks that leaped over 30%, and 3 more that climbed over 25%. That's an impressive track record. With portfolios tailored for Dow stocks, S&P stocks, Tech stocks, and Mid Cap stocks, you can explore various wealth-building strategies.

By Uditha Jayasinghe COLOMBO (Reuters) -Sri Lanka’s central bank held its benchmark interest rate steady at 7.75% on Wednesday, pausing after May’s surprise cut, to monitor the impact of U.S. tariffs and the effects of earlier monetary easing on the economy. The decision was widely expected, with most analysts in a Reuters poll predicting a hold amid stable inflation and a steady economic recovery. "The Board is of the view that the current monetary policy stance will help steer inflation towards the target of 5% in the period ahead while supporting growth," the Central Bank of Sri Lanka said in a statement. Supported by a $2.9 billion programme from the International Monetary Fund, the island nation is gradually recovering from its worst financial crisis in decades, triggered by a record dollar shortage three years ago. The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) had trimmed its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in May in a surprise move to support growth. The economy expanded 5% in 2024, and the central bank expects growth to remain between 4% and 5% this year. "If the recovery in headline and core inflation remains gradual, there can still be space for another 25 bps cut in the rest of the year," said Thilina Panduwawala, head of research at Frontier Research. Ten of 13 analysts and economists polled by Reuters had expected the CBSL to hold rates steady at its July meeting, citing benign inflation, stable growth, and uncertainty over U.S. trade policy. The United States initially imposed 44% tariffs on Sri Lankan goods but lowered them to 30% earlier this month. Apparel, Sri Lanka’s second-largest foreign exchange earner, is particularly exposed — the sector exports 40% of its output to the U.S. and brought in $4.8 billion last year. It employs around 300,000 people, most of them women.

European stocks set for another lower open as tariff uncertainty dents sentiment  CNBC

Europe stocks nudge higher despite tariff uncertainty; Ryanair profits soar 128%  CNBC

Investing.com – The economic outlook “improved slightly,” though persistent uncertainty and rising cost pressures, driven by President Trump’s tariffs and crackdown on immigration, continue to weigh on business sentiment, according to the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book released Wednesday. “Economic activity increased slightly from late May through early July,” the Fed said in its Beige Book, based on anecdotal information collected by its 12 reserve banks through July 8. But uncertainty remained “elevated, contributing to ongoing caution by businesses,” the report said. Nonauto consumer spending “declined in most Districts,” while auto sales “receded modestly on average, after consumers had rushed to buy vehicles earlier this year to avoid tariffs,” according to the report. The economic outlook, meanwhile, was “neutral to slightly pessimistic, the report suggested, as only two districts expected activity to increase, and others foresaw flat or slightly weaker activity, Labor Market Remains Cautious Amid Improved Availability Employment “increased very slightly overall,” with hiring still “generally cautious,” with many contacts flagging “ongoing economic and policy uncertainty.” In a sign that President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown is starting to take effect, the report said several districts pointed to “reduced availability of foreign-born workers, attributed to changes in immigration policy.” To keep costs lean as AI’s promise to boost productivity takes shape, some employers are accelerating AI adoption. Some companies “ramped up investments in automation and AI aimed at reducing the need for additional hiring.” Wages “increased modestly overall,” and layoffs, while limited, were “somewhat more common among manufacturers," the report said. Price Pressures Pick Up Pace as Tariff, Insurance Costs Build On the inflation front, prices “increased across Districts, with seven characterizing price growth as moderate and five characterizing it as modest,” little changed from the prior report. In all 12 Districts, “businesses reported experiencing modest to pronounced input cost pressures related to tariffs, especially for raw materials used in manufacturing and construction.” Firms also faced “rising insurance costs,” meanwhile, with many passing on "at least a portion of cost increases to consumers through price hikes or surcharges,” while others held off “because of customers’ growing price sensitivity, resulting in compressed profit margins.” The Fed noted that contacts in a wide range of industries “expected cost pressures to remain elevated in the coming months, increasing the likelihood that consumer prices will start to rise more rapidly by late summer.”

Investing.com-- The Bank of Japan could potentially delay its interest rate hikes to 2026, Capital Economics analysts warned on Tuesday, as the central bank grapples with heightened uncertainty over U.S. trade tariffs. The central bank had sharply toned down its hawkish rhetoric in recent months due to increased economic headwinds presented by U.S. tariffs, even as local inflation pushed higher. Trade talks between Tokyo and Washington are ongoing. But U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday said that Japan will face 25% tariffs on all exports to the United States, effective August 1. Capital Economics said that a swift trade deal between Tokyo and Japan could give the BOJ enough impetus to hike interest rates by October, especially with Japanese inflation trending steadily higher. “But any further delay in negotiations or a deal with a more drastic increase in US tariffs would probably convince the (BOJ) to delay tightening until next year,” Capital Economics analysts wrote in a note. The BOJ had hiked rates by 25 basis points to 0.50% in January, but had given scant signals on when it would hike next. The central bank was seen turning much more cautious in recent months, due to caution over the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs. This comes even as Japanese consumer inflation hit an over two-year high in May, amid high food prices and strong consumer spending. Tokyo has so far largely maintained its demands that it be exempt from all U.S. trade tariffs, which has proven to be a major hurdle for trade talks with Washington. But despite Trump flagging 25% tariffs on Japan, he signaled openness to reaching a trade deal before August 1. The U.S. president also said he was not a “100% firm” on the August 1 deadline. AI computing powers are changing the stock market. Investing.com's ProPicks AI includes 6 winning stock portfolios chosen by our advanced AI. In 2024 alone, ProPicks AI identified 2 stocks that surged over 150%, 4 additional stocks that leaped over 30%, and 3 more that climbed over 25%. Which stock will be the next to soar?

Investing.com -- The lack of clarity around US tariff policy is not expected to hold back US markets, according to Capital Economics, which maintains its outlook for US equities and the dollar to rally through the remainder of the year. The US tariff situation has impacted markets in two key ways over recent months. First is the direct effect on US inflation, economic growth, and potential central bank responses. With the administration extending the pause on additional "reciprocal" tariffs until next month, market participants must wait longer for clarity on the final tariff structure. Treasury Secretary Bessent has indicated that without deals, "Liberation Day" tariffs would begin in early August, but progress toward many of these agreements remains unclear. The second major question is how much trade policy uncertainty will affect US markets. The unpredictable development of the policy appeared to trigger early-April sell-offs in US assets and the dollar, raising concerns that policy uncertainty might deter investors from US markets for an extended period. However, these concerns seem to have diminished. The weekend’s announcement about the tariff pause extension did not cause any significant reaction in equity futures or the dollar. The US equity market is trading near all-time highs, and equity risk premiums have returned to levels close to recent lows. While Treasury bonds have recovered since April, this appears to reflect higher "term premia" being offset by increased expectations for rate cuts. This could indicate compensation for greater policy uncertainty, particularly regarding inflation effects, though it may also reflect concerns about the federal deficit. The dollar’s ongoing weakness could reflect some concern about US trade policy implementation, but might also stem from other factors, such as possible deliberate appreciation of certain currencies against it or changes in foreign exchange hedging behavior. Capital Economics maintains that tariff uncertainty alone is unlikely to severely impact the US economy or dampen investor enthusiasm for US equities. However, the firm believes the uncertainty will significantly influence the Federal Reserve, as many FOMC members appear reluctant to cut rates until the inflationary effects of tariffs become clearer. Capital Economics doubts the Fed will cut rates this year, which could negatively impact Treasury bonds but potentially boost the dollar eventually. This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C. With valuations skyrocketing in 2024, many investors are uneasy putting more money into stocks. Unsure where to invest next? Get access to our proven portfolios and discover high-potential opportunities. In 2024 alone, ProPicks AI identified 2 stocks that surged over 150%, 4 additional stocks that leaped over 30%, and 3 more that climbed over 25%. That's an impressive track record. With portfolios tailored for Dow stocks, S&P stocks, Tech stocks, and Mid Cap stocks, you can explore various wealth-building strategies.

Investing.com - Two major U.S. stock average log fresh record closing highs to end a holiday-shortened trading week, although the buoyant mood fails to extend into Europe with uncertainty still swirling around an aggressive U.S. trade agenda. The U.S. Congress passes President Donald Trump’s giant policy bill, in a key legislative win that came despite some intraparty detractors. Trump also suggests Hamas could deliver its decision on a temporary ceasefire with Israel in the coming hours. 1. S&P 500, Nasdaq notch record closes The benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite both logged fresh all-time peaks on Thursday, as investors cheered a strong U.S. jobs report and shrugged off predictions that the Federal Reserve would now opt not to slash interest rates this month. By the end of trading on the final day of a holiday-shortened week, the S&P 500 had climbed by 0.8% and the Nasdaq had advanced by 1.0%. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average also gained 0.7%, hovering within striking distance of its own record high. Stock markets in the U.S. will be shuttered on Friday for the Independence Day holiday. Labor Department data showed that the U.S. added more roles than anticipated in June, although the numbers masked a slowdown in private hiring to an eight-month low. The unemployment also ticked down to 4.1%, but this was partly driven by more Americans choosing to leave the workforce, while a decline in the length of the average work week suggested that businesses may be ratcheting down hours. Still, the figures underlined broad resilience in the labor market that, coupled with recently benign inflationary pressures, could persuade Fed policymakers to hold off on cutting borrowing costs at their next two-day gathering on July 29-30. Meanwhile, in individual stocks, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA)’s market capitalization surged to nearly $4 trillion. The designer of high-end artificial intelligence chips and focal point of a boom in enthusiasm around the nascent technology is now on pace to become the most valuable company in history. 2. Congress passes Trump’s signature policy bill The House of Representatives approved the Senate’s version of President Trump’s massive tax-cuts and spending bill, as Republicans in the lower chamber won over party holdouts to overcome staunch Democratic opposition. It marks a significant victory for Trump, who has invested much of his political capital into pushing the bill through Congress prior to a self-imposed July 4 deadline. Trump is now due to sign it into law at an event on Friday. Trump has argued that the measures -- which included an extension to his 2017 tax cuts and other promised tax reductions as well as elevated spending on defense and border security -- will fuel economic growth. He told reporters that the bill would now put the U.S. on a "rocket ship." But the bill’s detractors, including a handful of Republicans, have voiced concerns around its impact on the nation’s finances. Key food-assistance and health care programs would also be cut, and tax breaks for clean energy projects rolled back, to help offset the costs of the bill. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that it will add more than $3 trillion to the already sky-high U.S. debt pile and remove health coverage for millions of Americans. The White House has disputed the forecasts. 3. Trump to send out tariff letters But, even with the unexpectedly solid labor market figures and Trump’s sprawling policy bill now in the rearview mirror, lingering uncertainty over U.S. tariffs has dampened what was an otherwise upbeat vibe heading into the Fourth of July weekend. Attention is now turning to the upcoming expiration of a pause to sweeping "reciprocal" levies next week, with investors unclear over how Trump will approach the deadline. Despite claims at the beginning of the 90-day delay that the Trump administration would pursue individual trade deals with dozens of countries, Washington has only revealed framework pacts with three nations: China, Britain and, earlier this week, Vietnam. Trump has suggested that a "couple" more could soon be revealed. But the president has appeared to pivot away from the goal of securing a raft of these agreements, saying that he will start sending letters out to trading partners on Friday specifying what tariff rates they will incur on imported goods into the U.S. He seemed to acknowledge the difficulty of negotiating trade deals with as many as 170 countries, saying "they’re very much more complicated." 4. Trump expects Hamas ceasefire decision in 24 hours Elsewhere, Trump said it will be known in 24 hours if the Palestinian militant group Hamas has agreed to accept a ceasefire deal with Israel. Both sides have been engaged in brutal fighting for decades, but the latest bout of violence began in October 2023 when Hamas attacked Israel. Trump noted earlier this week that Israel had agreed to the conditions of a 60-day halt to hostilities that could open the door to a more permanent end to the war. Citing a source close to Hamas, Reuters reported that the group was seeking guarantees that the U.S.-backed framework truce would lead to peace. Meanwhile, Trump hinted that the Abraham Accords, a deal signed in his first term that aimed to normalize relations between Israel and some Gulf states, could be expanded. "I think a lot of people are going to be joining the Abraham Accords," he said. 5. Oil prices choppy Crude prices hovered around the flatline in thin trading ahead of the weekend’s OPEC+ meeting, which is expected to result in an increase in production. At 03:42 ET, Brent futures dropped 0.1% to $68.75 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures added 0.1% to $67.05 a barrel. Both contracts were up between 1% to 2% this week, bouncing back from double-digit losses during the prior week. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, is expected to once again hike production by 411,000 barrels a day in August, at the weekend’s meeting, following similar hikes in the past three months. The production hikes come as the OPEC+ scales back two years of sharp production cuts, in part to offset the economic impact of persistently low oil prices. Elsewhere, U.S. news website Axios reported on Thursday that the U.S. was planning to meet with Iran next week to restart nuclear talk, while Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran remains committed to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

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