RBADVISERS: “.. If the 30-Year TBond yield is rising because of crowding out by hyperscalers’ debt issuance then why aren’t high yield bond spreads widening? Is the US a worse credit than high yield bonds?”
August 22, 2026 at 2:10 PM
RBADVISERS: “.. If the 30-Year TBond yield is rising because of crowding out by hyperscalers’ debt issuance then why aren’t high yield bond spreads widening? Is the US a worse credit than high yield bonds?”
My brother is on the spectrum. He made an absolute fortune trading Tbond futures in Chicago. He did eventually pay off the IRS and can dunk a basketball, always wins at games
April 22, 2025 at 12:43 PM
My brother is on the spectrum. He made an absolute fortune trading Tbond futures in Chicago. He did eventually pay off the IRS and can dunk a basketball, always wins at games
I am surprised that nobody in the u.s talk about the Tbond effect. Thats probably the cause to suspend for 90days.
April 10, 2025 at 9:33 PM
I am surprised that nobody in the u.s talk about the Tbond effect. Thats probably the cause to suspend for 90days.
Why what @benbraun.bsky.social says matters: Tbonds (and Fannie/Freddie MBS/debt) are the foundation for the global financial system. Mess up the TBond market and everything else gets messed up. Hi eigenvector centrality in network analysis terms.
bsky.app/profile/thun...
bsky.app/profile/thun...
Time really is a circle. Leveraged hedge funds make billions; bets blow up; dash for cash; the Fed steps in; repeat. Here's what I wrote four years ago about central banks as guarantors of this unjust and inefficient (some might say: stupid) system.
benjaminbraun.org/assets/pubs/...
benjaminbraun.org/assets/pubs/...
April 9, 2025 at 11:36 AM
Why what @benbraun.bsky.social says matters: Tbonds (and Fannie/Freddie MBS/debt) are the foundation for the global financial system. Mess up the TBond market and everything else gets messed up. Hi eigenvector centrality in network analysis terms.
bsky.app/profile/thun...
bsky.app/profile/thun...
Nothing = 125% duties + stop rare earths export + stop boeing + sell “some” Tbond + buy 50 tons of gold (March) + …
Quietly
Win
Quietly
Win
April 23, 2025 at 4:37 PM
Nothing = 125% duties + stop rare earths export + stop boeing + sell “some” Tbond + buy 50 tons of gold (March) + …
Quietly
Win
Quietly
Win
Despite the federal debt to GDP ratio rising steadily during the last 40 years, the 10-year Tbond yield has persistently declined! Bond Vigilante sightings appear to be more folklore than fact! See my latest report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
December 15, 2025 at 12:58 PM
Despite the federal debt to GDP ratio rising steadily during the last 40 years, the 10-year Tbond yield has persistently declined! Bond Vigilante sightings appear to be more folklore than fact! See my latest report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
i Make Assolhes Greater Again stanno ammazzando il dollaro, e non capisco perché la UE non si muova compatta, anche se so bene che non è tra le sue competenze.
Però sarebbe bello creare sportelli per informare gli americani sui vantaggi di diventare europei (lavoro a parte), vendere tbond, eccetera
Però sarebbe bello creare sportelli per informare gli americani sui vantaggi di diventare europei (lavoro a parte), vendere tbond, eccetera
Investors dodge U.S. dollar and Treasurys, scared by Trump’s trade war
The dollar has lost almost 10 percent of its value since Inauguration Day with roughly half of that decline coming this month.
www.washingtonpost.com
April 15, 2025 at 9:12 PM
i Make Assolhes Greater Again stanno ammazzando il dollaro, e non capisco perché la UE non si muova compatta, anche se so bene che non è tra le sue competenze.
Però sarebbe bello creare sportelli per informare gli americani sui vantaggi di diventare europei (lavoro a parte), vendere tbond, eccetera
Però sarebbe bello creare sportelli per informare gli americani sui vantaggi di diventare europei (lavoro a parte), vendere tbond, eccetera
@rbreich.bsky.social @meidastouch.com @karaswisher.bsky.social @bullwark.bsky.social @therickwilson.bsky.social
Regardless of BBB final timing,will pass cuz of GOP cowardice+bribes. But bond market to react IMMEDIATELY to earlier TrumpRecession start ,4+ points higher TBond rates, related inflation
Regardless of BBB final timing,will pass cuz of GOP cowardice+bribes. But bond market to react IMMEDIATELY to earlier TrumpRecession start ,4+ points higher TBond rates, related inflation
July 2, 2025 at 9:03 AM
@rbreich.bsky.social @meidastouch.com @karaswisher.bsky.social @bullwark.bsky.social @therickwilson.bsky.social
Regardless of BBB final timing,will pass cuz of GOP cowardice+bribes. But bond market to react IMMEDIATELY to earlier TrumpRecession start ,4+ points higher TBond rates, related inflation
Regardless of BBB final timing,will pass cuz of GOP cowardice+bribes. But bond market to react IMMEDIATELY to earlier TrumpRecession start ,4+ points higher TBond rates, related inflation
Il perché dell'attivismo di bessent degli.ultimi giorni col tbond stabilmente sopra il 5%
Se altri seguiranno saranno guai seri
Aumento delle tasse e
drastico taglio al budget militare
(Dismissione di metà delle dieci portaerei per fare un esempio)
Se altri seguiranno saranno guai seri
Aumento delle tasse e
drastico taglio al budget militare
(Dismissione di metà delle dieci portaerei per fare un esempio)
The Norwegian oil fund may cut US Treasury holdings by $80 billion, the FT reports.
September 4, 2026 at 1:28 PM
Il perché dell'attivismo di bessent degli.ultimi giorni col tbond stabilmente sopra il 5%
Se altri seguiranno saranno guai seri
Aumento delle tasse e
drastico taglio al budget militare
(Dismissione di metà delle dieci portaerei per fare un esempio)
Se altri seguiranno saranno guai seri
Aumento delle tasse e
drastico taglio al budget militare
(Dismissione di metà delle dieci portaerei per fare un esempio)
Treasury bond, or T-bond, are long-term debt securities issued by the U.S. Federal government, with maturities of either 20 or 30 years. #finsurlog #finance #Treasurybond #Tbond
Read more at: finsurlog.com/what-is-trea...
Read more at: finsurlog.com/what-is-trea...
April 1, 2025 at 11:47 AM
Treasury bond, or T-bond, are long-term debt securities issued by the U.S. Federal government, with maturities of either 20 or 30 years. #finsurlog #finance #Treasurybond #Tbond
Read more at: finsurlog.com/what-is-trea...
Read more at: finsurlog.com/what-is-trea...
On est sur une reprise en V assez stupéfiante, on peut s interroger sur le Tbond par contre et donc le couple action/ taux, la chute du USD en arbitre (ce qui majore le risque de hausse de taux via la prudence des investisseurs off shore).
Si on doit rester uniquement sur des éléments "marché".
Si on doit rester uniquement sur des éléments "marché".
May 18, 2025 at 2:51 PM
On est sur une reprise en V assez stupéfiante, on peut s interroger sur le Tbond par contre et donc le couple action/ taux, la chute du USD en arbitre (ce qui majore le risque de hausse de taux via la prudence des investisseurs off shore).
Si on doit rester uniquement sur des éléments "marché".
Si on doit rester uniquement sur des éléments "marché".
Chinese banks trimming their dollar bond holdings, whilst not constituting an outright 'dollar dump' - yet - must still be seen as evidence of a slow-moving decoupling from the US currency. Bne IntelliNews #Beijing #DollarDump #ChineseBanks #Tbond #CurrencyDecoupling
COMMENT: Beijing’s T-bond trim indicative of an eventual dollar dump
Chinese banks trimming their dollar bond holdings, whilst not constituting an outright 'dollar dump' - yet - must still be seen as evidence of a slow-moving decoupling from the US currency.
dlvr.it
February 15, 2026 at 3:45 AM
Chinese banks trimming their dollar bond holdings, whilst not constituting an outright 'dollar dump' - yet - must still be seen as evidence of a slow-moving decoupling from the US currency. Bne IntelliNews #Beijing #DollarDump #ChineseBanks #Tbond #CurrencyDecoupling
Would make you think the US TBond is riskier 😅
August 22, 2026 at 2:12 PM
Would make you think the US TBond is riskier 😅
A questi tassi e con l'inflazione da dazi sono curioso di vedere che succede se parte il sell Tbond...
February 7, 2025 at 8:40 AM
A questi tassi e con l'inflazione da dazi sono curioso di vedere che succede se parte il sell Tbond...
87. The Hunchback of Notre Dame
📕 10. Probablemente la peli más madura de Disney, sabéis de sobra los motivos.
🎵 10. Solo el combo TBoND + Hellfire ya es para ponerle el 10, pero tiene varios temazos más.
⭐️The Bells of Notre Dame
📕 10. Probablemente la peli más madura de Disney, sabéis de sobra los motivos.
🎵 10. Solo el combo TBoND + Hellfire ya es para ponerle el 10, pero tiene varios temazos más.
⭐️The Bells of Notre Dame
a cartoon of a man standing on a wooden structure
ALT: a cartoon of a man standing on a wooden structure
media.tenor.com
January 20, 2025 at 9:54 PM
87. The Hunchback of Notre Dame
📕 10. Probablemente la peli más madura de Disney, sabéis de sobra los motivos.
🎵 10. Solo el combo TBoND + Hellfire ya es para ponerle el 10, pero tiene varios temazos más.
⭐️The Bells of Notre Dame
📕 10. Probablemente la peli más madura de Disney, sabéis de sobra los motivos.
🎵 10. Solo el combo TBoND + Hellfire ya es para ponerle el 10, pero tiene varios temazos más.
⭐️The Bells of Notre Dame
$NCLH Goldman upgraded the stk in early Dec, I thought at that time there would be a capital raise, and today they announced $1.8 bil senior notes. Usual WStreet bs. Most companies issued debt in 2020 during the pandemic and now need to refinance, 10 yr tbond is knocking on 4.7%, Not Good!
January 7, 2025 at 4:37 PM
$NCLH Goldman upgraded the stk in early Dec, I thought at that time there would be a capital raise, and today they announced $1.8 bil senior notes. Usual WStreet bs. Most companies issued debt in 2020 during the pandemic and now need to refinance, 10 yr tbond is knocking on 4.7%, Not Good!
That's exactly right. I'm an American, a Minnesotan. We're living through Hell because Congress won't take the keys away from Grandpa. You don't have to over-analyse anything he says. He's got dementia. Take care of yourselves, but we must push Congress. Your TBond move helped! Money & markets talk.
January 22, 2026 at 11:25 AM
That's exactly right. I'm an American, a Minnesotan. We're living through Hell because Congress won't take the keys away from Grandpa. You don't have to over-analyse anything he says. He's got dementia. Take care of yourselves, but we must push Congress. Your TBond move helped! Money & markets talk.
@robcyran.bsky.social Rob, Important: To ‘own the libs’ with terrorising nominations, Trump47 IMO has moved Next Recession forward 6 mo. How to know for certain? Look to 2/10 Tbond inversions, mult sessions (I predicted Sp ‘20 US & UK mini-recessions using that tool.
@rbreich.bsky.social @briantylercohen.bsky.social @robarmstrong.bsky.social
Trump47’s cabinet selection fiascos (RUS agent as Intel Head? Suspected pedophile @ DoJ?) have spooked markets. The Donald now may face imperative to get TaxCut4Rich #2 done H1 ‘25 in order to avoid long-overdue recession?
Trump47’s cabinet selection fiascos (RUS agent as Intel Head? Suspected pedophile @ DoJ?) have spooked markets. The Donald now may face imperative to get TaxCut4Rich #2 done H1 ‘25 in order to avoid long-overdue recession?
November 16, 2024 at 5:26 PM
@robcyran.bsky.social Rob, Important: To ‘own the libs’ with terrorising nominations, Trump47 IMO has moved Next Recession forward 6 mo. How to know for certain? Look to 2/10 Tbond inversions, mult sessions (I predicted Sp ‘20 US & UK mini-recessions using that tool.
Never in the history of the 30 year TBond #TYX has the rate diverged so far from the 50 month SMA as in October 2023
Weekly chart: downtrend (Lower lows, lower highs)
Likelihood that #TYX hits 50 month SMA, currently 3.299% is extremely high
∴ Long $ZB_F $US_F /ZBH25 /USH25
Weekly chart: downtrend (Lower lows, lower highs)
Likelihood that #TYX hits 50 month SMA, currently 3.299% is extremely high
∴ Long $ZB_F $US_F /ZBH25 /USH25
December 5, 2024 at 5:30 PM