Voorspelling van de zonnewind en de dichtheid van CME's.
Theoretische berekening van de dichtheid van de zonnewind en de dichtheid van coronale massa-ejecties.
Het gebruikte rekenmodel is WSA ENLIL (NOAA).
02 oktober Noorderlicht?
Theoretische berekening van de dichtheid van de zonnewind en de dichtheid van coronale massa-ejecties.
Het gebruikte rekenmodel is WSA ENLIL (NOAA).
02 oktober Noorderlicht?
September 29, 2026 at 6:18 PM
Voorspelling van de zonnewind en de dichtheid van CME's.
Theoretische berekening van de dichtheid van de zonnewind en de dichtheid van coronale massa-ejecties.
Het gebruikte rekenmodel is WSA ENLIL (NOAA).
02 oktober Noorderlicht?
Theoretische berekening van de dichtheid van de zonnewind en de dichtheid van coronale massa-ejecties.
Het gebruikte rekenmodel is WSA ENLIL (NOAA).
02 oktober Noorderlicht?
According to the WSA-ENLIL model (fig.), a CME is expected to graze the Earth late Friday afternoon and lead to increased geomagnetic activity. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr
September 29, 2026 at 4:00 PM
According to the WSA-ENLIL model (fig.), a CME is expected to graze the Earth late Friday afternoon and lead to increased geomagnetic activity. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr
Heads up Aurora fans. Maybe tonight! www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa...
WSA-ENLIL Solar Wind Prediction | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
www.swpc.noaa.gov
September 1, 2025 at 8:07 PM
Heads up Aurora fans. Maybe tonight! www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa...
An Earth-directed CME is on the way! Predicted arrival time is 10 UT on Feb 18 +/- 7 hr according to the NASA M2M WSA ENLIL+Cone model.
The model is predicting Kp 6-8 possible, but I always take these with a grain of salt and am only thinking G1-G2 for this CME (if it arrives).
#heliophysics
The model is predicting Kp 6-8 possible, but I always take these with a grain of salt and am only thinking G1-G2 for this CME (if it arrives).
#heliophysics
February 16, 2026 at 7:44 PM
An Earth-directed CME is on the way! Predicted arrival time is 10 UT on Feb 18 +/- 7 hr according to the NASA M2M WSA ENLIL+Cone model.
The model is predicting Kp 6-8 possible, but I always take these with a grain of salt and am only thinking G1-G2 for this CME (if it arrives).
#heliophysics
The model is predicting Kp 6-8 possible, but I always take these with a grain of salt and am only thinking G1-G2 for this CME (if it arrives).
#heliophysics
In case you are wondering about the NASA M2M prediction for the X1.9 CME, they are modeling it as a miss. Here is the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model showing the shock and bulk heading east of the Earth.
#heliophysics
#heliophysics
December 2, 2025 at 5:19 AM
In case you are wondering about the NASA M2M prediction for the X1.9 CME, they are modeling it as a miss. Here is the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model showing the shock and bulk heading east of the Earth.
#heliophysics
#heliophysics
The X8.1 flare did technically launch a CME, but it is WIMPPPYYY. It is a glancing blow at Earth and traveling very slow at < 300 km/s. Here is the NASA M2M WSA-ENLIL+Cone model for the CME. It may arrive on Feb 5, but I am placing zero bets on this doing anything for us...
February 2, 2026 at 4:04 PM
The X8.1 flare did technically launch a CME, but it is WIMPPPYYY. It is a glancing blow at Earth and traveling very slow at < 300 km/s. Here is the NASA M2M WSA-ENLIL+Cone model for the CME. It may arrive on Feb 5, but I am placing zero bets on this doing anything for us...
New moon dark sky aurora forecast.
NOAA 📸 Earth is the little yellow dot to the right of the centered sun emitting the CME, the coronal mass ejection, toward us that creates a geomagnetic storm and auroras.
NOAA WSA-ENLIL Solar Wind Prediction
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa...
NOAA 📸 Earth is the little yellow dot to the right of the centered sun emitting the CME, the coronal mass ejection, toward us that creates a geomagnetic storm and auroras.
NOAA WSA-ENLIL Solar Wind Prediction
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa...
March 17, 2026 at 5:15 PM
New moon dark sky aurora forecast.
NOAA 📸 Earth is the little yellow dot to the right of the centered sun emitting the CME, the coronal mass ejection, toward us that creates a geomagnetic storm and auroras.
NOAA WSA-ENLIL Solar Wind Prediction
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa...
NOAA 📸 Earth is the little yellow dot to the right of the centered sun emitting the CME, the coronal mass ejection, toward us that creates a geomagnetic storm and auroras.
NOAA WSA-ENLIL Solar Wind Prediction
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa...
Here is the WSA-ENLIL+Cone Model for the farsided CME from today (no impact to Earth). Look how fast it transits the time to 1 AU (this model goes out to 2 AU).
We would likely see impact in ~19 hours if this CME were directed at Earth.
#heliophysics
We would likely see impact in ~19 hours if this CME were directed at Earth.
#heliophysics
December 18, 2024 at 12:59 AM
Here is the WSA-ENLIL+Cone Model for the farsided CME from today (no impact to Earth). Look how fast it transits the time to 1 AU (this model goes out to 2 AU).
We would likely see impact in ~19 hours if this CME were directed at Earth.
#heliophysics
We would likely see impact in ~19 hours if this CME were directed at Earth.
#heliophysics
We may not have any Earth-directed CMEs, but a high-speed stream is currently affecting us, and round two may be right around the corner. According to NOAA WSA-ENLIL modeling, we may see another CIR+HSS combo ramping up around Dec 16. This may trigger minor-moderate geomagnetic storming.
December 13, 2025 at 9:36 PM
We may not have any Earth-directed CMEs, but a high-speed stream is currently affecting us, and round two may be right around the corner. According to NOAA WSA-ENLIL modeling, we may see another CIR+HSS combo ramping up around Dec 16. This may trigger minor-moderate geomagnetic storming.
Direct hit! Here is a preliminary WSA ENLIL+Cone model of the M8.1 CME from NASA M2M. Earth shock arrival time is calculated to be Dec 9, 4 UT +/- 7 hr (Monday night).
G2-G3 conditions may be possible, but we'll see what the official forecast from NOAA SWPC is. Stay tuned...
G2-G3 conditions may be possible, but we'll see what the official forecast from NOAA SWPC is. Stay tuned...
December 6, 2025 at 11:41 PM
Direct hit! Here is a preliminary WSA ENLIL+Cone model of the M8.1 CME from NASA M2M. Earth shock arrival time is calculated to be Dec 9, 4 UT +/- 7 hr (Monday night).
G2-G3 conditions may be possible, but we'll see what the official forecast from NOAA SWPC is. Stay tuned...
G2-G3 conditions may be possible, but we'll see what the official forecast from NOAA SWPC is. Stay tuned...
Here is the latest NASA M2M WSA ENLIL+Cone model for the X1.5 CME. It was a pretty impressive eruption yet mostly directed east of Earth and blocked somewhat by a neighboring coronal hole. Still, we may see a glancing blow around March 31, 14 UT according to this run.
March 30, 2026 at 6:35 PM
Here is the latest NASA M2M WSA ENLIL+Cone model for the X1.5 CME. It was a pretty impressive eruption yet mostly directed east of Earth and blocked somewhat by a neighboring coronal hole. Still, we may see a glancing blow around March 31, 14 UT according to this run.
#Aurora: initial NASA WSA-ENLIL+Cone model results suggest a possible glancing blow by the CME from the X2.2 flare earlier today. CME arrival is expected on December 11th. Awaiting other model results.
December 8, 2024 at 5:28 PM
#Aurora: initial NASA WSA-ENLIL+Cone model results suggest a possible glancing blow by the CME from the X2.2 flare earlier today. CME arrival is expected on December 11th. Awaiting other model results.
Jetzt wird es spannend...
October 10, 2024 at 2:52 PM
Jetzt wird es spannend...
Here is the NOAA SWPC WSA-ENLIL model containing at least the M9.5 and X1 CMEs. We may expect to see an arrival around 18 UT tomorrow which is around lunchtime here in the U.S. Currently, G3 / Kp 7 conditions are predicted, but we'll see what happens!
June 3, 2026 at 5:39 PM
Here is the NOAA SWPC WSA-ENLIL model containing at least the M9.5 and X1 CMEs. We may expect to see an arrival around 18 UT tomorrow which is around lunchtime here in the U.S. Currently, G3 / Kp 7 conditions are predicted, but we'll see what happens!
The M7.1 CME has been modeled by NASA with the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to deliver a glancing blow at Earth around 21 UT on Jan 2. Impacts may be minor-moderate (G1-G2/Kp 5-6) geomagnetic storming pending the official NOAA SWPC prediction. Mid-latitude auroras possible!
December 31, 2025 at 5:05 PM
The M7.1 CME has been modeled by NASA with the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to deliver a glancing blow at Earth around 21 UT on Jan 2. Impacts may be minor-moderate (G1-G2/Kp 5-6) geomagnetic storming pending the official NOAA SWPC prediction. Mid-latitude auroras possible!
Things are heating up a bit. Here is the NASA M2M WSA-ENLIL+Cone model for the filament CME near AR 4334 on Jan 8. Impact may occur around 10 UT on Jan 10. As always, L1 will be the final judge of this CME which is only a glancing blow at Earth according to this model run.
January 9, 2026 at 5:35 AM
Things are heating up a bit. Here is the NASA M2M WSA-ENLIL+Cone model for the filament CME near AR 4334 on Jan 8. Impact may occur around 10 UT on Jan 10. As always, L1 will be the final judge of this CME which is only a glancing blow at Earth according to this model run.
Here is the NASA M2M WSA ENLIL+Cone model for the M2.75 CME which launched earlier today. It is a flanking hit to Earth with speeds ~700 km/s (not bad!) and could prompt another G2 watch from NOAA SWPC for Friday March 20. Impact in this model is for 17 UT +/- 7 hr that day.
March 18, 2026 at 5:36 PM
Here is the NASA M2M WSA ENLIL+Cone model for the M2.75 CME which launched earlier today. It is a flanking hit to Earth with speeds ~700 km/s (not bad!) and could prompt another G2 watch from NOAA SWPC for Friday March 20. Impact in this model is for 17 UT +/- 7 hr that day.
Here is the NASA M2M WSA-ENLIL+Cone model of the second X2.5 CME from AR 4419. Much like the first X2.5 flare, the CME produced was not Earth-directed as the active region is near the Sun's western limb.
April 24, 2026 at 4:39 PM
Here is the NASA M2M WSA-ENLIL+Cone model of the second X2.5 CME from AR 4419. Much like the first X2.5 flare, the CME produced was not Earth-directed as the active region is near the Sun's western limb.
Here is the freeze frame of the NOAA SWPC WSA-ENLIL model and more information about this event. Mid-latitude aurora may be possible tonight into Sunday. Make sure to watch space weather data closely and follow real-time data products to have the most success chasing the aurora.
January 1, 2026 at 2:44 PM
Here is the freeze frame of the NOAA SWPC WSA-ENLIL model and more information about this event. Mid-latitude aurora may be possible tonight into Sunday. Make sure to watch space weather data closely and follow real-time data products to have the most success chasing the aurora.
Es kann sich lohnen nachts nochmal Richtung Norden zu schauen. #aurora #sonnensturm
January 20, 2026 at 2:52 PM
Es kann sich lohnen nachts nochmal Richtung Norden zu schauen. #aurora #sonnensturm
Aurora sky watchers from middle to high latitudes should be alert beginning as early as tonight.
November 30, 2023 at 8:38 AM
Aurora sky watchers from middle to high latitudes should be alert beginning as early as tonight.
Voorspelling van zonnewind en CME-snelheid
Theoretische berekening van de snelheid van de zonnewind en de snelheid van coronale massa-ejecties.
Het gebruikte rekenmodel is WSA ENLIL (NOAA).
van 321 naar 552 km/s
Theoretische berekening van de snelheid van de zonnewind en de snelheid van coronale massa-ejecties.
Het gebruikte rekenmodel is WSA ENLIL (NOAA).
van 321 naar 552 km/s
August 13, 2026 at 2:27 PM
Voorspelling van zonnewind en CME-snelheid
Theoretische berekening van de snelheid van de zonnewind en de snelheid van coronale massa-ejecties.
Het gebruikte rekenmodel is WSA ENLIL (NOAA).
van 321 naar 552 km/s
Theoretische berekening van de snelheid van de zonnewind en de snelheid van coronale massa-ejecties.
Het gebruikte rekenmodel is WSA ENLIL (NOAA).
van 321 naar 552 km/s
This shows that the geomagnetic storm may not hit for another 20 hours but could last days.
📸 WSA-Enlil Prediction
Spaceweather.com
Space Weather Enthusiasts Dashboard, NOAA Space Weather Prediction
www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/...
📸 WSA-Enlil Prediction
Spaceweather.com
Space Weather Enthusiasts Dashboard, NOAA Space Weather Prediction
www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/...
June 25, 2025 at 1:05 AM
This shows that the geomagnetic storm may not hit for another 20 hours but could last days.
📸 WSA-Enlil Prediction
Spaceweather.com
Space Weather Enthusiasts Dashboard, NOAA Space Weather Prediction
www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/...
📸 WSA-Enlil Prediction
Spaceweather.com
Space Weather Enthusiasts Dashboard, NOAA Space Weather Prediction
www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/...
Voorspelling van zonnewind en CME-snelheid.
Theoretische berekening van de snelheid van de zonnewind en de snelheid van coronale massa-ejecties.
Het gebruikte rekenmodel is WSA ENLIL (NOAA).
van 300 tot 430 km/s — normaal
Theoretische berekening van de snelheid van de zonnewind en de snelheid van coronale massa-ejecties.
Het gebruikte rekenmodel is WSA ENLIL (NOAA).
van 300 tot 430 km/s — normaal
September 6, 2026 at 9:52 PM
Voorspelling van zonnewind en CME-snelheid.
Theoretische berekening van de snelheid van de zonnewind en de snelheid van coronale massa-ejecties.
Het gebruikte rekenmodel is WSA ENLIL (NOAA).
van 300 tot 430 km/s — normaal
Theoretische berekening van de snelheid van de zonnewind en de snelheid van coronale massa-ejecties.
Het gebruikte rekenmodel is WSA ENLIL (NOAA).
van 300 tot 430 km/s — normaal
Modeling the coronal mass ejection heading our way (or maybe starting to arrive?)
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa...
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa...
WSA-ENLIL Solar Wind Prediction | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
www.swpc.noaa.gov
October 10, 2024 at 5:30 PM
Modeling the coronal mass ejection heading our way (or maybe starting to arrive?)
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa...
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa...