Wenn @markorummelsburg.bsky.social und die NOAA sich einig sind 😉, lohnt morgen Abend vielleicht ein Blick zum Himmel 🙂
🌈
raumwetter.de/etwas-aktivi...
🌈
raumwetter.de/etwas-aktivi...
October 1, 2026 at 6:46 AM
Wenn @markorummelsburg.bsky.social und die NOAA sich einig sind 😉, lohnt morgen Abend vielleicht ein Blick zum Himmel 🙂
🌈
raumwetter.de/etwas-aktivi...
🌈
raumwetter.de/etwas-aktivi...
Voorspelling van de zonnewind en de dichtheid van CME's.
Theoretische berekening van de dichtheid van de zonnewind en de dichtheid van coronale massa-ejecties.
Het gebruikte rekenmodel is WSA ENLIL (NOAA).
02 oktober Noorderlicht?
Theoretische berekening van de dichtheid van de zonnewind en de dichtheid van coronale massa-ejecties.
Het gebruikte rekenmodel is WSA ENLIL (NOAA).
02 oktober Noorderlicht?
September 29, 2026 at 6:18 PM
Voorspelling van de zonnewind en de dichtheid van CME's.
Theoretische berekening van de dichtheid van de zonnewind en de dichtheid van coronale massa-ejecties.
Het gebruikte rekenmodel is WSA ENLIL (NOAA).
02 oktober Noorderlicht?
Theoretische berekening van de dichtheid van de zonnewind en de dichtheid van coronale massa-ejecties.
Het gebruikte rekenmodel is WSA ENLIL (NOAA).
02 oktober Noorderlicht?
According to the WSA-ENLIL model (fig.), a CME is expected to graze the Earth late Friday afternoon and lead to increased geomagnetic activity. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr
September 29, 2026 at 4:00 PM
According to the WSA-ENLIL model (fig.), a CME is expected to graze the Earth late Friday afternoon and lead to increased geomagnetic activity. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr
🟡 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Fast CME from filament eruption (1586 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-16 22:00 AEST (~3h from now) (glancing blow).
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
Fast CME from filament eruption (1586 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-16 22:00 AEST (~3h from now) (glancing blow).
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
September 16, 2026 at 8:48 AM
🟡 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Fast CME from filament eruption (1586 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-16 22:00 AEST (~3h from now) (glancing blow).
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
Fast CME from filament eruption (1586 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-16 22:00 AEST (~3h from now) (glancing blow).
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
🟡 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Earth-directed CME detected (744 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-17 19:30 AEST (~63h from now) (glancing blow).
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
Earth-directed CME detected (744 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-17 19:30 AEST (~63h from now) (glancing blow).
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
September 14, 2026 at 6:35 PM
🟡 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Earth-directed CME detected (744 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-17 19:30 AEST (~63h from now) (glancing blow).
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
Earth-directed CME detected (744 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-17 19:30 AEST (~63h from now) (glancing blow).
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
🟡 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Fast CME from filament eruption (1305 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-16 22:00 AEST (~61h from now) (glancing blow).
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
Fast CME from filament eruption (1305 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-16 22:00 AEST (~61h from now) (glancing blow).
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
September 13, 2026 at 10:35 PM
🟡 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Fast CME from filament eruption (1305 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-16 22:00 AEST (~61h from now) (glancing blow).
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
Fast CME from filament eruption (1305 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-16 22:00 AEST (~61h from now) (glancing blow).
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
🟡 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Fast CME from C5.0 flare (1085 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-09 04:41 AEST (~44h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~27h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
Fast CME from C5.0 flare (1085 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-09 04:41 AEST (~44h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~27h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
September 6, 2026 at 10:27 PM
🟡 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Fast CME from C5.0 flare (1085 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-09 04:41 AEST (~44h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~27h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
Fast CME from C5.0 flare (1085 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-09 04:41 AEST (~44h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~27h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
Voorspelling van zonnewind en CME-snelheid.
Theoretische berekening van de snelheid van de zonnewind en de snelheid van coronale massa-ejecties.
Het gebruikte rekenmodel is WSA ENLIL (NOAA).
van 300 tot 430 km/s — normaal
Theoretische berekening van de snelheid van de zonnewind en de snelheid van coronale massa-ejecties.
Het gebruikte rekenmodel is WSA ENLIL (NOAA).
van 300 tot 430 km/s — normaal
September 6, 2026 at 9:52 PM
Voorspelling van zonnewind en CME-snelheid.
Theoretische berekening van de snelheid van de zonnewind en de snelheid van coronale massa-ejecties.
Het gebruikte rekenmodel is WSA ENLIL (NOAA).
van 300 tot 430 km/s — normaal
Theoretische berekening van de snelheid van de zonnewind en de snelheid van coronale massa-ejecties.
Het gebruikte rekenmodel is WSA ENLIL (NOAA).
van 300 tot 430 km/s — normaal
🟡 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Fast CME from C5.0 flare (1085 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-09 04:41 AEST (~50h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~27h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
Fast CME from C5.0 flare (1085 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-09 04:41 AEST (~50h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~27h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
September 6, 2026 at 4:35 PM
🟡 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Fast CME from C5.0 flare (1085 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-09 04:41 AEST (~50h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~27h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
Fast CME from C5.0 flare (1085 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-09 04:41 AEST (~50h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~27h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
🔴 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Fast CME from C8.5 flare (1110 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-08 09:21 AEST (~50h from now) — G1 storm possible. Disturbance expected to last ~23.8h.
Fast CME from C8.5 flare (1110 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-08 09:21 AEST (~50h from now) — G1 storm possible. Disturbance expected to last ~23.8h.
September 5, 2026 at 9:05 PM
🔴 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Fast CME from C8.5 flare (1110 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-08 09:21 AEST (~50h from now) — G1 storm possible. Disturbance expected to last ~23.8h.
Fast CME from C8.5 flare (1110 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-08 09:21 AEST (~50h from now) — G1 storm possible. Disturbance expected to last ~23.8h.
🔴 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Fast CME from C8.5 flare (1110 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-08 09:21 AEST (~50h from now) — G1 storm possible. Disturbance expected to last ~23.8h.
Fast CME from C8.5 flare (1110 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-08 09:21 AEST (~50h from now) — G1 storm possible. Disturbance expected to last ~23.8h.
September 5, 2026 at 9:05 PM
🔴 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Fast CME from C8.5 flare (1110 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-08 09:21 AEST (~50h from now) — G1 storm possible. Disturbance expected to last ~23.8h.
Fast CME from C8.5 flare (1110 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-08 09:21 AEST (~50h from now) — G1 storm possible. Disturbance expected to last ~23.8h.
🟡 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Fast CME from C6.4 flare (873 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-08 12:52 AEST (~60h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~24.5h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
Fast CME from C6.4 flare (873 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-08 12:52 AEST (~60h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~24.5h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
September 5, 2026 at 2:43 PM
🟡 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Fast CME from C6.4 flare (873 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-08 12:52 AEST (~60h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~24.5h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
Fast CME from C6.4 flare (873 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-08 12:52 AEST (~60h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~24.5h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
🟡 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Fast CME from C6.4 flare (873 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-08 12:52 AEST (~60h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~24.5h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
Fast CME from C6.4 flare (873 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-08 12:52 AEST (~60h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~24.5h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
September 5, 2026 at 2:35 PM
🟡 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Fast CME from C6.4 flare (873 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-08 12:52 AEST (~60h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~24.5h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
Fast CME from C6.4 flare (873 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-08 12:52 AEST (~60h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~24.5h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
🟡 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Fast CME from M3.0 flare (1323 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-06 04:00 AEST (~37h from now) (glancing blow).
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
Fast CME from M3.0 flare (1323 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-06 04:00 AEST (~37h from now) (glancing blow).
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
September 4, 2026 at 4:47 AM
🟡 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Fast CME from M3.0 flare (1323 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-06 04:00 AEST (~37h from now) (glancing blow).
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
Fast CME from M3.0 flare (1323 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-06 04:00 AEST (~37h from now) (glancing blow).
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
🟡 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Fast CME from filament eruption (1323 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-06 04:00 AEST (~66h from now) (glancing blow).
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
Fast CME from filament eruption (1323 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-06 04:00 AEST (~66h from now) (glancing blow).
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
September 2, 2026 at 11:35 PM
🟡 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Fast CME from filament eruption (1323 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-06 04:00 AEST (~66h from now) (glancing blow).
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
Fast CME from filament eruption (1323 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-09-06 04:00 AEST (~66h from now) (glancing blow).
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
Here we go. This is the NASA M2M WSA-ENLIL+Cone model prediction for the CME. A glancing blow, as indicated by lopsided EUV dimming. The arrival is expected on August 28th (Friday) around 10-11h UTC (+/-7h). Slow, not expecting much from this one.
August 25, 2026 at 1:31 PM
Here we go. This is the NASA M2M WSA-ENLIL+Cone model prediction for the CME. A glancing blow, as indicated by lopsided EUV dimming. The arrival is expected on August 28th (Friday) around 10-11h UTC (+/-7h). Slow, not expecting much from this one.
🟡 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Fast CME from M1.6 flare (1329 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-08-24 14:00 AEST (~60h from now) (glancing blow).
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
Fast CME from M1.6 flare (1329 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-08-24 14:00 AEST (~60h from now) (glancing blow).
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
August 21, 2026 at 3:35 PM
🟡 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Fast CME from M1.6 flare (1329 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-08-24 14:00 AEST (~60h from now) (glancing blow).
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
Fast CME from M1.6 flare (1329 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-08-24 14:00 AEST (~60h from now) (glancing blow).
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
Voorspelling van zonnewind en CME-snelheid
Theoretische berekening van de snelheid van de zonnewind en de snelheid van coronale massa-ejecties.
Het gebruikte rekenmodel is WSA ENLIL (NOAA).
van 321 naar 552 km/s
Theoretische berekening van de snelheid van de zonnewind en de snelheid van coronale massa-ejecties.
Het gebruikte rekenmodel is WSA ENLIL (NOAA).
van 321 naar 552 km/s
August 13, 2026 at 2:27 PM
Voorspelling van zonnewind en CME-snelheid
Theoretische berekening van de snelheid van de zonnewind en de snelheid van coronale massa-ejecties.
Het gebruikte rekenmodel is WSA ENLIL (NOAA).
van 321 naar 552 km/s
Theoretische berekening van de snelheid van de zonnewind en de snelheid van coronale massa-ejecties.
Het gebruikte rekenmodel is WSA ENLIL (NOAA).
van 321 naar 552 km/s
🟡 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Partial halo CME from M1.9 flare (1090 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-08-02 01:05 AEST (~41h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~24.6h.
Partial halo CME from M1.9 flare (1090 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-08-02 01:05 AEST (~41h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~24.6h.
July 30, 2026 at 9:46 PM
🟡 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Partial halo CME from M1.9 flare (1090 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-08-02 01:05 AEST (~41h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~24.6h.
Partial halo CME from M1.9 flare (1090 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-08-02 01:05 AEST (~41h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~24.6h.
🟡 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Fast CME from M1.9 flare (1549 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-08-02 01:05 AEST (~44h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~24.6h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
Fast CME from M1.9 flare (1549 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-08-02 01:05 AEST (~44h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~24.6h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
July 30, 2026 at 7:05 PM
🟡 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Fast CME from M1.9 flare (1549 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-08-02 01:05 AEST (~44h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~24.6h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
Fast CME from M1.9 flare (1549 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-08-02 01:05 AEST (~44h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~24.6h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
🟡 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Fast CME detected (827 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-07-27 05:25 AEST (~8h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~25.3h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
Fast CME detected (827 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-07-27 05:25 AEST (~8h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~25.3h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
July 26, 2026 at 11:38 AM
🟡 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Fast CME detected (827 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-07-27 05:25 AEST (~8h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~25.3h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
Fast CME detected (827 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-07-27 05:25 AEST (~8h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~25.3h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
🟡 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Fast CME detected (827 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-07-27 05:25 AEST (~48h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~25.3h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
Fast CME detected (827 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-07-27 05:25 AEST (~48h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~25.3h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
July 24, 2026 at 7:05 PM
🟡 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Fast CME detected (827 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-07-27 05:25 AEST (~48h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~25.3h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
Fast CME detected (827 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-07-27 05:25 AEST (~48h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~25.3h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
🟡 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Fast CME detected (977 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-07-24 05:02 AEST (~10h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~14.7h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
Fast CME detected (977 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-07-24 05:02 AEST (~10h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~14.7h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
July 23, 2026 at 8:32 AM
🟡 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Fast CME detected (977 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-07-24 05:02 AEST (~10h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~14.7h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
Fast CME detected (977 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-07-24 05:02 AEST (~10h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~14.7h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
🟡 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Fast CME detected (977 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-07-24 05:02 AEST (~44h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~14.7h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
Fast CME detected (977 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-07-24 05:02 AEST (~44h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~14.7h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
July 21, 2026 at 11:05 PM
🟡 CME update: WSA-ENLIL model confirms Earth arrival
Fast CME detected (977 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-07-24 05:02 AEST (~44h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~14.7h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events
Fast CME detected (977 km/s)
Estimated arrival: 2026-07-24 05:02 AEST (~44h from now). Disturbance expected to last ~14.7h.
Watch for Bz turning southward at impact — that's the aurora trigger. Track live → https://lumina.observer/events