Following sex workers on Instagram ❌
Paying for sex and attempting to cover it up with a payoff while breaking campaign finance laws ✅
Paying for sex and attempting to cover it up with a payoff while breaking campaign finance laws ✅
November 8, 2025 at 4:56 PM
Following sex workers on Instagram ❌
Paying for sex and attempting to cover it up with a payoff while breaking campaign finance laws ✅
Paying for sex and attempting to cover it up with a payoff while breaking campaign finance laws ✅
"I crank through ten indicators where we might expect to see that payoff. But there is no employment or wage-growth boom for native-born workers in this data. I can’t find it." newsletter.mikekonczal.com/p/can-we-fin...
Can We Find Literally Any Sign Deportations Are Helping Native-Born Workers?
Shoot the moon! Ten hypotheses, ten charts, and no payoff for native-born workers.
newsletter.mikekonczal.com
September 25, 2026 at 2:18 PM
"I crank through ten indicators where we might expect to see that payoff. But there is no employment or wage-growth boom for native-born workers in this data. I can’t find it." newsletter.mikekonczal.com/p/can-we-fin...
J.D. Vance promised seven million sidelined men would come roaring back into work. A year of data says native-born male employment ran below its 2024 level—and the “women took all the jobs because men replaced deported immigrants” story turns out to be pure invention":
**CROSSPOST: MIKE... 1/
**CROSSPOST: MIKE... 1/
CROSSPOST: MIKE KONCZAL: Can We Find Literally Any Sign Deportations Are Helping Native-Born Workers?
Mike’s subheadline: “Shoot the moon! Ten hypotheses, ten charts, and no payoff for native-born workers”; the phantom deportation dividend as foreign-born complement, not substitute for, native-born...
braddelong.substack.com
October 1, 2026 at 3:04 PM
J.D. Vance promised seven million sidelined men would come roaring back into work. A year of data says native-born male employment ran below its 2024 level—and the “women took all the jobs because men replaced deported immigrants” story turns out to be pure invention":
**CROSSPOST: MIKE... 1/
**CROSSPOST: MIKE... 1/
I did a big dive to see if I could literally find any labor market variable that was better for native-born workers now than it was in 2024, and couldn't find anything. And, well, nothing.
Here are the ten biggest misses, but there's so many more.
newsletter.mikekonczal.com/p/can-we-fin...
Here are the ten biggest misses, but there's so many more.
newsletter.mikekonczal.com/p/can-we-fin...
Can We Find Literally Any Sign Deportations Are Helping Native-Born Workers?
Shoot the moon! Ten hypotheses, ten charts, and no payoff for native-born workers.
newsletter.mikekonczal.com
September 23, 2026 at 7:12 PM
I did a big dive to see if I could literally find any labor market variable that was better for native-born workers now than it was in 2024, and couldn't find anything. And, well, nothing.
Here are the ten biggest misses, but there's so many more.
newsletter.mikekonczal.com/p/can-we-fin...
Here are the ten biggest misses, but there's so many more.
newsletter.mikekonczal.com/p/can-we-fin...
Nice explanation from @philipncohen.com on the faults in pronatalism. Even if you could massively & sustainably boost the fertility rate, you'd have to raise those kids! The dependency ratio would get a lot worse for decades before the (small) payoff.
familyinequality.wordpress.com/2025/06/10/p...
familyinequality.wordpress.com/2025/06/10/p...
Projections show that increasing the birth rate (as if you could) is the wrong way to get more workers
A little math shows that increasing the birthrate is a slow, expensive, and ineffective way to get more workers.
familyinequality.wordpress.com
July 22, 2025 at 11:18 PM
Nice explanation from @philipncohen.com on the faults in pronatalism. Even if you could massively & sustainably boost the fertility rate, you'd have to raise those kids! The dependency ratio would get a lot worse for decades before the (small) payoff.
familyinequality.wordpress.com/2025/06/10/p...
familyinequality.wordpress.com/2025/06/10/p...
"I remain surprised by how hard it is to find a broad payoff for native-born workers here...If they expected these deportations to have such amazing upsides...simple economic theory and a well-developed empirical literature would all have told them otherwise:"
open.substack.com/pub/mikekonc...
open.substack.com/pub/mikekonc...
Can We Find Literally Any Sign Deportations Are Helping Native-Born Workers?
Shoot the moon! Ten hypotheses, ten charts, and no payoff for native-born workers.
open.substack.com
September 30, 2026 at 3:15 PM
"I remain surprised by how hard it is to find a broad payoff for native-born workers here...If they expected these deportations to have such amazing upsides...simple economic theory and a well-developed empirical literature would all have told them otherwise:"
open.substack.com/pub/mikekonc...
open.substack.com/pub/mikekonc...
- They are pouring billions into AI because they expect it to pay off big in the end.
- That payoff comes from eliminating human workers. Nothing else.
AI exists to destroy the value of human labor. Everything else is trivia. …
- That payoff comes from eliminating human workers. Nothing else.
AI exists to destroy the value of human labor. Everything else is trivia. …
August 1, 2025 at 4:51 PM
- They are pouring billions into AI because they expect it to pay off big in the end.
- That payoff comes from eliminating human workers. Nothing else.
AI exists to destroy the value of human labor. Everything else is trivia. …
- That payoff comes from eliminating human workers. Nothing else.
AI exists to destroy the value of human labor. Everything else is trivia. …
To be fair Trump probably just wants a payoff. Stick a millions dollars into Trump's bank account, and he'll let the Korean workers in.
September 9, 2025 at 7:09 PM
To be fair Trump probably just wants a payoff. Stick a millions dollars into Trump's bank account, and he'll let the Korean workers in.
Trump admin says 75k employees (out of 2MM eligible) accepted the “Fork” resignation offer.
If true - a big if - that’s 3.75% of the workforce.
But in 2023, 6% of federal employees left anyway, due to normal attrition — and without a generous 6-months DOGE payoff.
www.nbcnews.com/politics/whi...
If true - a big if - that’s 3.75% of the workforce.
But in 2023, 6% of federal employees left anyway, due to normal attrition — and without a generous 6-months DOGE payoff.
www.nbcnews.com/politics/whi...
White House says about 75K federal workers accepted 'deferred resignation' offer
The offer’s deadline closed Wednesday after a federal judge ruled to end a temporary pause to the program ordered last week.
www.nbcnews.com
February 21, 2025 at 1:52 PM
Trump admin says 75k employees (out of 2MM eligible) accepted the “Fork” resignation offer.
If true - a big if - that’s 3.75% of the workforce.
But in 2023, 6% of federal employees left anyway, due to normal attrition — and without a generous 6-months DOGE payoff.
www.nbcnews.com/politics/whi...
If true - a big if - that’s 3.75% of the workforce.
But in 2023, 6% of federal employees left anyway, due to normal attrition — and without a generous 6-months DOGE payoff.
www.nbcnews.com/politics/whi...
But even that he doesn’t get right!
The policy shifts paid off, in many ways, DURING Biden’s term, eg unemployment went record lows. Real wages rose among the lower income. Unions pensions were improved!
It wasn’t some far off, payoff for workers.
www.epi.org/publication/...
The policy shifts paid off, in many ways, DURING Biden’s term, eg unemployment went record lows. Real wages rose among the lower income. Unions pensions were improved!
It wasn’t some far off, payoff for workers.
www.epi.org/publication/...
Fastest wage growth over the last four years among historically disadvantaged groups: Low-wage workers’ wages surged after decades of slow growth
In stark contrast to prior decades, low-wage workers experienced dramatically fast real wage growth between 2019 and 2023, but many workers continue to suffer from grossly inadequate wages and middle-...
www.epi.org
January 4, 2025 at 6:51 PM
But even that he doesn’t get right!
The policy shifts paid off, in many ways, DURING Biden’s term, eg unemployment went record lows. Real wages rose among the lower income. Unions pensions were improved!
It wasn’t some far off, payoff for workers.
www.epi.org/publication/...
The policy shifts paid off, in many ways, DURING Biden’s term, eg unemployment went record lows. Real wages rose among the lower income. Unions pensions were improved!
It wasn’t some far off, payoff for workers.
www.epi.org/publication/...
The all donated Trump in the hopes he will be able to abolish all workers rights. Remove the minimum wage. Allow for indentured “employees”. They placed the bet and still hoping for the big payoff. No OSHA no labour boards of any kind to protect and help workers exploited by corporate greed.
October 30, 2025 at 2:53 PM
The all donated Trump in the hopes he will be able to abolish all workers rights. Remove the minimum wage. Allow for indentured “employees”. They placed the bet and still hoping for the big payoff. No OSHA no labour boards of any kind to protect and help workers exploited by corporate greed.
I can. Cheap consumer goods were neoliberalism's payoff for allowing unions to be gutted & intl. capital to leverage global supply chains
Idk what the solution is, bc I don't like the idea of hoarding wealth for Global North workers, but worker liberation will entail rising prices for ordinary ppl
Idk what the solution is, bc I don't like the idea of hoarding wealth for Global North workers, but worker liberation will entail rising prices for ordinary ppl
I can't even bring myself to type out a good post about the perverse relationship between cheap consumer goods and workers liberation. We're so cooked guys
“Americans have taken it for granted for generations that milk is cheap and plentiful. Few of them realize that the current political climate around the issue of undocumented immigrants could put that longstanding privilege in danger.”
October 15, 2024 at 6:11 PM
I can. Cheap consumer goods were neoliberalism's payoff for allowing unions to be gutted & intl. capital to leverage global supply chains
Idk what the solution is, bc I don't like the idea of hoarding wealth for Global North workers, but worker liberation will entail rising prices for ordinary ppl
Idk what the solution is, bc I don't like the idea of hoarding wealth for Global North workers, but worker liberation will entail rising prices for ordinary ppl
Considering the final vote for Elon's payoff package isn't done yet (Thursday), this story could absolutely affect the outcome.
Kudos to the plaintiffs and their representation for having impeccable timing.
Kudos to the plaintiffs and their representation for having impeccable timing.
June 12, 2024 at 8:13 PM
Considering the final vote for Elon's payoff package isn't done yet (Thursday), this story could absolutely affect the outcome.
Kudos to the plaintiffs and their representation for having impeccable timing.
Kudos to the plaintiffs and their representation for having impeccable timing.
The downwind "payoff" is also providing an ownership so solvent that they do not care about a workers' strike, poor products, or any kind of consumer backlash. The ownership would continue and replace as needed, or shut down the company with no regard to employees or market, on a whim.
September 29, 2025 at 2:07 PM
The downwind "payoff" is also providing an ownership so solvent that they do not care about a workers' strike, poor products, or any kind of consumer backlash. The ownership would continue and replace as needed, or shut down the company with no regard to employees or market, on a whim.
Nonunion management wants to protect profits & their unilateral power, so they react to a strong union threat by making their jobs more like union jobs.
This union substitution strategy preemptively reduces the payoff to their workers of unionizing.
This union substitution strategy preemptively reduces the payoff to their workers of unionizing.
October 31, 2023 at 11:36 PM
Nonunion management wants to protect profits & their unilateral power, so they react to a strong union threat by making their jobs more like union jobs.
This union substitution strategy preemptively reduces the payoff to their workers of unionizing.
This union substitution strategy preemptively reduces the payoff to their workers of unionizing.
Good read, although the point is succinct.
AI currently cannot replace workers. That's not the reason for the layoffs. There are two reasons.
1. CEOs want to make it look like they've replaced workers with AI for credibility in the tech.
2. AI costs money. So do people. CEOs are picking one.
AI currently cannot replace workers. That's not the reason for the layoffs. There are two reasons.
1. CEOs want to make it look like they've replaced workers with AI for credibility in the tech.
2. AI costs money. So do people. CEOs are picking one.
Tech companies are cutting jobs and betting on AI. The payoff is far from guaranteed
AI experts say we’re living in an experiment that may fundamentally change the model of work
www.theguardian.com
April 7, 2026 at 6:28 AM
Good read, although the point is succinct.
AI currently cannot replace workers. That's not the reason for the layoffs. There are two reasons.
1. CEOs want to make it look like they've replaced workers with AI for credibility in the tech.
2. AI costs money. So do people. CEOs are picking one.
AI currently cannot replace workers. That's not the reason for the layoffs. There are two reasons.
1. CEOs want to make it look like they've replaced workers with AI for credibility in the tech.
2. AI costs money. So do people. CEOs are picking one.
"isn't badly-coded, un-maintainable software a small price to pay if the larger payoff is being able to fire workers and treat those who remain like (censored)?" mastodon.social/@prietschka/...
Paul Rietschka (@prietschka@mastodon.social)
I mean, I guess?
But what you're missing here, my dear Hoye, is that this allows companies to de-skill workers and reduce head counts and standard salary rates.
And isn't badly-coded, un-maintainab...
mastodon.social
June 19, 2026 at 1:57 PM
"isn't badly-coded, un-maintainable software a small price to pay if the larger payoff is being able to fire workers and treat those who remain like (censored)?" mastodon.social/@prietschka/...
It looks like "some college* has an effect of about 20 percent over just high school, which is certainly not nothing, but there's a big jump between that and holding the B.A.
cew.georgetown.edu/cew-reports/...
cew.georgetown.edu/cew-reports/...
The College Payoff: More Education Doesn’t Always Mean More Earnings - CEW Georgetown
Workers with higher levels of education tend to earn more than those with less education, but that isn't always the case.
cew.georgetown.edu
May 5, 2026 at 9:57 PM
It looks like "some college* has an effect of about 20 percent over just high school, which is certainly not nothing, but there's a big jump between that and holding the B.A.
cew.georgetown.edu/cew-reports/...
cew.georgetown.edu/cew-reports/...
right? the auto workers guy was the only one out there sticking it to the regime—and then only because they had just cleaned house due to a big payoff scandal
September 27, 2026 at 6:22 PM
right? the auto workers guy was the only one out there sticking it to the regime—and then only because they had just cleaned house due to a big payoff scandal
This looks and feels like like a twofer: using ICE to terrorize immigrant construction workers and a shakedown from a deep pocketed foreign company for a payoff in exchange for a tariff exemption.
September 5, 2025 at 2:55 PM
This looks and feels like like a twofer: using ICE to terrorize immigrant construction workers and a shakedown from a deep pocketed foreign company for a payoff in exchange for a tariff exemption.
"As for the U.S. in particular, one estimate concludes that international trade alone led to 'an increase of $7,014 in [inflation-adjusted] GDP per capita and $18,131 in GDP per household' in the United States between 1950 and 2016." www.piie.com/publications...
The Payoff to America from Globalization: A Fresh Look with a Focus on Costs to Workers
Hufbauer and Lu, updating a landmark PIIE study made in 2005, calculate the payoff to the United States from trade expansion from 1950 to 2016 at $2.1 trillion. The payoff has stemmed from trade expan...
www.piie.com
October 2, 2026 at 8:54 PM
"As for the U.S. in particular, one estimate concludes that international trade alone led to 'an increase of $7,014 in [inflation-adjusted] GDP per capita and $18,131 in GDP per household' in the United States between 1950 and 2016." www.piie.com/publications...
What an offensive thing to say. No #Tories will be shot or gassed and they will all go away with a payoff far better than any of the workers whose jobs they destroyed. So not at all like the Somme. Entitled twats with an overactive sense of their own importance.
June 22, 2024 at 9:58 AM
What an offensive thing to say. No #Tories will be shot or gassed and they will all go away with a payoff far better than any of the workers whose jobs they destroyed. So not at all like the Somme. Entitled twats with an overactive sense of their own importance.
This is why CEOs stopped pensions and switched workers to 401K etc.... It keeps the losses in the workers portfolio instead of the Company or organizations. Workers are forced to gamble their savings to the amount that the Company will match by investing in stocks etc. Instead of mortgage payoff...
July 23, 2026 at 9:06 PM
This is why CEOs stopped pensions and switched workers to 401K etc.... It keeps the losses in the workers portfolio instead of the Company or organizations. Workers are forced to gamble their savings to the amount that the Company will match by investing in stocks etc. Instead of mortgage payoff...
Co-ops
Nobody is motivated to expand the ones that exist or create new ones?
Workers could organize a non-profit co-op. Payoff could be there for the work to set up & better employment long term.
Nobody is motivated to expand the ones that exist or create new ones?
Workers could organize a non-profit co-op. Payoff could be there for the work to set up & better employment long term.
June 14, 2025 at 10:45 PM
Co-ops
Nobody is motivated to expand the ones that exist or create new ones?
Workers could organize a non-profit co-op. Payoff could be there for the work to set up & better employment long term.
Nobody is motivated to expand the ones that exist or create new ones?
Workers could organize a non-profit co-op. Payoff could be there for the work to set up & better employment long term.
The payoff is concrete: Amazon can keep drivers in Amazon uniforms while arguing they aren’t Amazon employees—and workers lose a path to hold the company accountable under labor law.
September 3, 2026 at 11:43 AM
The payoff is concrete: Amazon can keep drivers in Amazon uniforms while arguing they aren’t Amazon employees—and workers lose a path to hold the company accountable under labor law.