This mostly just illustrates the weakness of Bayesianism as a methodological approach rather than saying anything.
Bayesian methods with spatiotemporal and zoonotic data indicate odds of 15,000:1 that the COVID-19 pandemic resulted from an accidental lab leak rather than a wildlife mammal, from Andrew T. Levin https://www.nber.org/papers/w33428
February 8, 2025 at 2:02 PM
This mostly just illustrates the weakness of Bayesianism as a methodological approach rather than saying anything.
How I explain frequentism vs Bayesianism to my students
June 24, 2025 at 12:29 PM
How I explain frequentism vs Bayesianism to my students
He’s gotten so bad that anyone who takes anything he says seriously gets an instant downgrade from me these days. Unlike Nate, I actually do Bayesianism.
January 22, 2026 at 1:49 PM
He’s gotten so bad that anyone who takes anything he says seriously gets an instant downgrade from me these days. Unlike Nate, I actually do Bayesianism.
bayesianism? oh you mean the codified gambler's fallacy?
March 10, 2025 at 10:37 AM
bayesianism? oh you mean the codified gambler's fallacy?
Bayesianism is ZuTara while Frequentism is KatAang.
August 30, 2025 at 10:13 AM
Bayesianism is ZuTara while Frequentism is KatAang.
Is Bayesianism the cross fit of statistical inference?
November 20, 2024 at 11:20 AM
Is Bayesianism the cross fit of statistical inference?
Ok but my subjective Bayesianism is woke theory is looking pretty good now
April 3, 2025 at 6:14 PM
Ok but my subjective Bayesianism is woke theory is looking pretty good now
Bayesianism is the Rawlsianism of statistics. No further questions.
March 9, 2025 at 3:13 PM
Bayesianism is the Rawlsianism of statistics. No further questions.
Bayesianism intensifies
You can put a lot of takes on this project, but here's mine:
Null hypothesis significance testing is an abject failure at providing any sort of useful framework for statistical research in the social sciences.
Null hypothesis significance testing is an abject failure at providing any sort of useful framework for statistical research in the social sciences.
February 11, 2026 at 7:42 PM
Bayesianism intensifies
2010 me: what is the future like
2025 me: dystopian but also they used Bayesianism to implement Internet Foucault
2025 me: dystopian but also they used Bayesianism to implement Internet Foucault
October 17, 2025 at 9:58 PM
2010 me: what is the future like
2025 me: dystopian but also they used Bayesianism to implement Internet Foucault
2025 me: dystopian but also they used Bayesianism to implement Internet Foucault
In general I think we as a culture really need to bring positivism back. A lot of otherwise skeptical/rational people have recently abandoned it in favor of bayesianism but the issue with bayesianism is it's not really very robust to people trying to manipulate you by shaping your priors
August 28, 2025 at 12:54 AM
In general I think we as a culture really need to bring positivism back. A lot of otherwise skeptical/rational people have recently abandoned it in favor of bayesianism but the issue with bayesianism is it's not really very robust to people trying to manipulate you by shaping your priors
Bayesianism can't explain this. (It can.)
March 22, 2026 at 4:32 PM
Bayesianism can't explain this. (It can.)
low social decoupling is bad bayesianism
March 14, 2026 at 8:18 PM
low social decoupling is bad bayesianism
It is difficult to practice Bayesianism in a minefield.
November 28, 2025 at 6:16 AM
It is difficult to practice Bayesianism in a minefield.
The prior gets left behind. If you’re still talking about your prior at the end of your little anecdote you have failed to do Bayesianism
September 4, 2026 at 4:00 AM
The prior gets left behind. If you’re still talking about your prior at the end of your little anecdote you have failed to do Bayesianism
Hot take: Bayesianism is kinda silly
September 23, 2024 at 4:37 PM
Hot take: Bayesianism is kinda silly
They will be *scandalised* to find that the frequentist foundation of statistics is openly debated and that Objective Bayesianism as a statistical epistemology is actually quite popular
These fools are about to be absolutely fuckass mad, just infuriated and offended beyond all belie, when they find out that truth does not consist in a proposition corresponding to facts but rather is a disquotational device used for blind ascriptions.
April 20, 2026 at 9:10 AM
They will be *scandalised* to find that the frequentist foundation of statistics is openly debated and that Objective Bayesianism as a statistical epistemology is actually quite popular
December 17, 2024 at 1:31 AM
bayesianism is out. it's passe. the next big thing is complexified probability theory. if your priors don't have a phase angle you're not gonna make it.
September 9, 2026 at 12:20 AM
bayesianism is out. it's passe. the next big thing is complexified probability theory. if your priors don't have a phase angle you're not gonna make it.
Bayesianism is just Frequentism when our universe is a sample draw from the population of universes; this is not even hard.
Send tweet.
(Cunningham's Law says I'm about to learn about Bayesianism.)
Send tweet.
(Cunningham's Law says I'm about to learn about Bayesianism.)
September 25, 2026 at 3:37 PM
Bayesianism is just Frequentism when our universe is a sample draw from the population of universes; this is not even hard.
Send tweet.
(Cunningham's Law says I'm about to learn about Bayesianism.)
Send tweet.
(Cunningham's Law says I'm about to learn about Bayesianism.)
Well, more of a vulgar Bayesianism
September 16, 2026 at 6:11 AM
Well, more of a vulgar Bayesianism
Brainwashing my students this semester with ideology (epistemic Bayesianism)
February 23, 2025 at 10:10 PM
Brainwashing my students this semester with ideology (epistemic Bayesianism)
"Bayesianism" as practiced by "rationalists" is the stupidest fucking bullshit I've ever seen. Where did you get the input numbers from, you clowns?
February 8, 2025 at 3:31 PM
"Bayesianism" as practiced by "rationalists" is the stupidest fucking bullshit I've ever seen. Where did you get the input numbers from, you clowns?
plus that guy's whole argument is dumb. "The left didn't forecast inflation and weren't hawkish at the time therefore they can't complain about it now."
My brother in Christ why do you hate Bayesianism so much.
My brother in Christ why do you hate Bayesianism so much.
July 27, 2026 at 6:15 PM
plus that guy's whole argument is dumb. "The left didn't forecast inflation and weren't hawkish at the time therefore they can't complain about it now."
My brother in Christ why do you hate Bayesianism so much.
My brother in Christ why do you hate Bayesianism so much.