#climateScenarios
An explainer on #climateScenarios I wrote.

Aimed at people in risk and finance, with some knowledge of SSPs and RCPs but missing detail. Also covers the (typical) disconnect between non-climate aspects and risk.

Physical uncertainty to follow!

www.jbarisk.com/news-blogs/h...
How are climate scenarios made?
Find out what's behind the alphabet soup of climate scenario names. JBA Risk Management's Head of Science, Dr Paul Young shares a technical explainer.
www.jbarisk.com
November 14, 2024 at 11:39 AM
🌍 Insurance rules start adapting to #climaterisk but a #safetransition also requires:

✅ To bridge the gaps in #climatescenarios
✅ To strengthen #transitionplan requirements
✅ To adjust pricing of risks

Read our blog🔗 finance-watch.org/blog/climate... #IAIS #ICPs
April 11, 2025 at 10:04 AM
Economic models ignore key risk drivers. To avoid a #climateminsky moment, prudential authorities can:
✅ Use qualitative #climatescenarios & reverse stress tests
✅ Apply stronger capital requirements for high-risk assets.

Read our paper 👉 www.finance-watch.org/policy-porta...
#ClimateLTV
March 29, 2025 at 7:01 AM
What would happen to the bacterial and #fungal communities associated with the sponge 𝘊𝘩𝘰𝘯𝘥𝘳𝘪𝘭𝘭𝘢 𝘯𝘶𝘤𝘶𝘭𝘢 under the projected #climatescenarios?

This data study examines the #microsymbionts and their composition as part of a controlled experiment spanning 3 months: doi.org/10.3897/BDJ....
April 29, 2026 at 1:24 PM
Transitions Risks will occur in the future due to fossil fuels reduction, this module explores how the demand of coal, gas and oil will change. #climatescenarios (1 / 4) → https://climatescenarios.org/fossil-fuels/
December 2, 2024 at 11:21 PM
9/ The window for action is closing fast. We can’t afford to plan our future on unrealistic quantifications.

📎 Read Finance Watch's full recommendations: 👉 finance-watch.org/policy-porta...

🔗 Forbes piece: forbes.com/sites/we-don...
#ClimateRisk #ClimateScenarios #TippingPoints #SafeTransition
50% GDP Collapse Ahead? Actuaries Sound The Alarm—Who’s Listening?
A 50% GDP collapse? Actuaries warn of economic devastation if we fail to act on climate risk. Entire industries could crumble—Why are we ignoring the warning?
forbes.com
April 24, 2025 at 9:08 AM
Updated climate scenarios phase out extreme worst-case emissions pathway as policy progress reshapes projections

🤖 IA: It's not clickbait ✅
👥 Users: It's not clickbait ✅

#climatescenarios #emissions #globalwarming

View full AI summary:
Updated climate scenarios phase out extreme worst-case emissions pathway as policy progress reshapes projections
A recent analysis discusses changes to the suite of global climate change scenarios used by scientists to project future warming outcomes. The article explains that the widely referenced high-emissions pathway known as RCP8.5, and its successor SSP5-8.5, has been removed from a new set of seven updated climate scenarios. These scenarios are used by researchers to model how the climate may evolve depending on different levels of greenhouse gas emissions and policy action. The worst-case scenario assumed a future in which countries make no meaningful effort to reduce emissions and continue expanding fossil fuel use. While this pathway has often been used as a benchmark for extreme climate risk in scientific literature and public discussion, recent assessments suggest it is becoming increasingly unlikely due to global climate policies, renewable energy growth, and partial decarbonisation trends. The article notes that the removal of this scenario reflects the idea that human action has already shifted the world away from the most extreme emissions trajectory. However, the update does not imply that climate risks have diminished significantly. Instead, scientists emphasise that while the most extreme outcomes may be less plausible, the world has also failed to achieve the most optimistic climate pathways. Current projections still show substantial warming under intermediate scenarios, depending on future emissions reductions. The revised scenario set aims to provide a more realistic framework for climate modelling, policy planning, and risk assessment. The discussion also highlights how climate scenarios influence public debate and political attention, noting interest from high-profile figures. Overall, the changes are presented as an adjustment to scientific modelling based on evolving real-world emissions trends, rather than a reduction in the urgency of climate action.
en.killbait.com
May 28, 2026 at 6:23 PM
It is quite likely that other discussions do include #climateScenarios, such as RCP8.5. But we were not discussing those discussions. Let's stick to the subject, please. It is quite impossible to have a decent discussion if we don't, wouldn't you agree?
July 24, 2025 at 7:28 AM
In the Paris Agreement of 2015, the international community agreed goals to keep temperatures from increasing, but how do we get there? #climatescenarios (1 / 4)
→ https://climatescenarios.org/emissions-gap/
December 2, 2024 at 11:21 PM
In this other chapter, we explain how to use co-production techniques to start or develop adaptation planning given different stages of the policy cycle. Read the Kenya case study → https://climatescenarios.org/kenya/
#climatescenarios
@PIK_Climate @IIASAVienna @SEIclimate @WUR
December 2, 2024 at 11:21 PM
We updated our #climatescenarios toolkit with a new module. What financial risks and opportunities does decarbonizing the power sector entail?

Continue reading here → https://climatescenarios.org/power-sector/

@PIK_Climate, @IIASAVienna, @SEIclimate, @WUR
December 2, 2024 at 11:11 PM
New module! @intasys & @framoriniii show simulation results that outline possible mitigation pathways for industrialized countries. Continue on #climatescenarios → https://climatescenarios.org/countries-pathways/

@PIK_Climate, @IIASAVienna, @SEIclimate, @WUR
December 2, 2024 at 11:11 PM
In this module, we illustrate how co-production techniques can be combined with scenarios to develop adaptation pathways for a CO2-neutral landscape. Read the Dutch Overijsselse Vecht case → https://climatescenarios.org/dutch
#climatescenarios
@PIK_Climate @IIASAVienna @SEIclimate...
December 2, 2024 at 11:11 PM
New this Wednesday! Three new modules on how to use co-production techniques by @InVogelvrijland, Lotte de Jong, @SaraTalebian, @Kasper2203, @HCarlsen_SEI, @zeto. Continue on #climatescenarios → https://climatescenarios.org/co-production/
@PIK_Climate @IIASAVienna @SEIclimate @WUR
December 2, 2024 at 11:06 PM
Is it possible to reach the Paris Agreement goals without putting food security at risk? Find out in our latest #climatescenarios module on the role of land for food production and climate protection → https://climatescenarios.org/land-use/
@PIK_Climate @IIASAVienna @SEIclimate @WUR
December 2, 2024 at 11:06 PM
Where did we pledge to invest and where should we invest money to reach the climate targets? Continue on #climatescenarios → https://climatescenarios.org/investment/ @PIK_Climate @IIASAVienna @SEIclimate @WUR @zeto
December 2, 2024 at 11:00 PM
What are extreme events? How do the affect land and population in a +1.5 °C, +2 °C, and +3 °C world? Find out in our latest #climatescenarios module → https://climatescenarios.org/extreme-events @PIK_Climate @IIASAVienna @SEIclimate @WUR
December 2, 2024 at 11:00 PM
The agenda will cover:

- How can industry balance future shifts with #HistoricalData?
- How do we convince management that these #WindTrends matter?
- Why use #ClimateScenarios in project development?
- Is uncertainty too great?
March 31, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Professor @alancmckinnon noting a recently published paper and saying that it is the scariest paper he has ever read. Paper is open access. #catastrophic #climatescenarios
December 3, 2024 at 4:02 AM