My consensus top 300 big board for fantasy football 2026:
We're all gonna die.
We're all gonna die.
April 7, 2026 at 3:52 PM
My consensus top 300 big board for fantasy football 2026:
We're all gonna die.
We're all gonna die.
JPMORGAN: “.. Bear-case of ~4,000 (no tariff relief, PE 16x, 2026 EPS of $250 vs. consensus of $307, implying 2 years of no real EPS growth) ..
“.. Base-case PT of 5,200 (partial tariff relief, PE 18.5x, 2026 EPS of $280)
“.. Bull-case of 5,800 (PE 20x, 2026 EPS of $290).” [Dubravko]
“.. Base-case PT of 5,200 (partial tariff relief, PE 18.5x, 2026 EPS of $280)
“.. Bull-case of 5,800 (PE 20x, 2026 EPS of $290).” [Dubravko]
April 7, 2025 at 11:10 AM
JPMORGAN: “.. Bear-case of ~4,000 (no tariff relief, PE 16x, 2026 EPS of $250 vs. consensus of $307, implying 2 years of no real EPS growth) ..
“.. Base-case PT of 5,200 (partial tariff relief, PE 18.5x, 2026 EPS of $280)
“.. Bull-case of 5,800 (PE 20x, 2026 EPS of $290).” [Dubravko]
“.. Base-case PT of 5,200 (partial tariff relief, PE 18.5x, 2026 EPS of $280)
“.. Bull-case of 5,800 (PE 20x, 2026 EPS of $290).” [Dubravko]
GOLDMAN: “.. Consensus estimates show hyperscaler YoY capex growth slowing from 75% in 3Q to 54% in 4Q and to 24% by the end of 2026. We expect AI spending will exceed consensus estimates again this quarter, but agree that a deceleration in the pace of AI capex growth is likely in 2026.”
January 11, 2026 at 1:07 PM
GOLDMAN: “.. Consensus estimates show hyperscaler YoY capex growth slowing from 75% in 3Q to 54% in 4Q and to 24% by the end of 2026. We expect AI spending will exceed consensus estimates again this quarter, but agree that a deceleration in the pace of AI capex growth is likely in 2026.”
GOLDMAN: “We have cut our 2025 US growth forecast to 1.7% Q4/Q4 — our first below-consensus call in 2½ years — and raised our US inflation forecast, both on the back of more adverse tariff assumptions. By contrast, our Euro area growth forecast has risen .. especially for 2026 - 2027 ..” [Hatzius]
March 10, 2025 at 11:26 PM
GOLDMAN: “We have cut our 2025 US growth forecast to 1.7% Q4/Q4 — our first below-consensus call in 2½ years — and raised our US inflation forecast, both on the back of more adverse tariff assumptions. By contrast, our Euro area growth forecast has risen .. especially for 2026 - 2027 ..” [Hatzius]
The 2026 NFL Draft Consensus Big Board is live: 300 players, 103 big boards
www.wideleft.football/p/2026-nfl-d...
www.wideleft.football/p/2026-nfl-d...
2026 NFL Draft Consensus Big Board: The Top 300 Players in the 2026 NFL Draft, According to 103 Analysts
The 2026 Consensus Big Board is live. 300 players are ranked using data from 103 draft analysts. What makes this consensus board unique? What can we learn from it?
www.wideleft.football
April 17, 2026 at 1:32 PM
The 2026 NFL Draft Consensus Big Board is live: 300 players, 103 big boards
www.wideleft.football/p/2026-nfl-d...
www.wideleft.football/p/2026-nfl-d...
1/ 🧬 A big #Pathoplexus milestone: you can now optionally include raw sequencing reads alongside your consensus sequences!
Hosting raw reads alongside consensus data helps improve reproducibility & allow in-depth analyses.
📰 Read more: pathoplexus.org/news/2026-09...
Hosting raw reads alongside consensus data helps improve reproducibility & allow in-depth analyses.
📰 Read more: pathoplexus.org/news/2026-09...
September 22, 2026 at 8:06 PM
1/ 🧬 A big #Pathoplexus milestone: you can now optionally include raw sequencing reads alongside your consensus sequences!
Hosting raw reads alongside consensus data helps improve reproducibility & allow in-depth analyses.
📰 Read more: pathoplexus.org/news/2026-09...
Hosting raw reads alongside consensus data helps improve reproducibility & allow in-depth analyses.
📰 Read more: pathoplexus.org/news/2026-09...
Tesla's Q4 results tomorrow should be bad. Consensus estimates are way "out to lunch", especially on 2026 outlook.
There won't be any "driverless robotaxis" for the general public in 2026, which means that potential losses could tank the stock.
#$TSLA
bradmunchen.substack.com/p/tesla-q4-2...
There won't be any "driverless robotaxis" for the general public in 2026, which means that potential losses could tank the stock.
#$TSLA
bradmunchen.substack.com/p/tesla-q4-2...
Tesla Q4 2025 Earnings Preview: 33% EPS Miss
While my estimates might be too bearish, consensus estimates are way too bullish.
bradmunchen.substack.com
January 27, 2026 at 7:42 PM
Tesla's Q4 results tomorrow should be bad. Consensus estimates are way "out to lunch", especially on 2026 outlook.
There won't be any "driverless robotaxis" for the general public in 2026, which means that potential losses could tank the stock.
#$TSLA
bradmunchen.substack.com/p/tesla-q4-2...
There won't be any "driverless robotaxis" for the general public in 2026, which means that potential losses could tank the stock.
#$TSLA
bradmunchen.substack.com/p/tesla-q4-2...
🧵Things that wont happen in 2026.
some "hilariously" bold off-consensus forecasts
some "hilariously" bold off-consensus forecasts
December 23, 2025 at 3:07 PM
🧵Things that wont happen in 2026.
some "hilariously" bold off-consensus forecasts
some "hilariously" bold off-consensus forecasts
Here's your latest ENSO update -- the current consensus is neutrality for the rest of 2025. In other words, human extinction by 2026 is looking increasingly unlikely.
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...
April 28, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Here's your latest ENSO update -- the current consensus is neutrality for the rest of 2025. In other words, human extinction by 2026 is looking increasingly unlikely.
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...
APOLLO: “.. The upward consensus revision to 2026 earnings for the S&P 500 since Liberation Day comes entirely from the Magnificent 7 .. Earnings expectations for the S&P 493 have remained suppressed ..
“.. The bottom line is .. equity investors are dramatically overexposed to AI.”
“.. The bottom line is .. equity investors are dramatically overexposed to AI.”
September 17, 2025 at 11:30 AM
APOLLO: “.. The upward consensus revision to 2026 earnings for the S&P 500 since Liberation Day comes entirely from the Magnificent 7 .. Earnings expectations for the S&P 493 have remained suppressed ..
“.. The bottom line is .. equity investors are dramatically overexposed to AI.”
“.. The bottom line is .. equity investors are dramatically overexposed to AI.”
I used the Consensus Big Board to grade every team's draft using two different methods.
I also talked about "groupthink" and why the Consensus Board has historical validity
The 2026 NFL Consensus Big Board Grades The Draft
www.wideleft.football/p/the-2026-n...
I also talked about "groupthink" and why the Consensus Board has historical validity
The 2026 NFL Consensus Big Board Grades The Draft
www.wideleft.football/p/the-2026-n...
The 2026 NFL Consensus Big Board Grades The Draft
The aggregated opinion of 134 draft analysts might not be what you want to hear, but I have it anyway. Using the ranks of the Consensus Big Board, what can we say about this year's NFL draft classes?
www.wideleft.football
April 26, 2026 at 4:58 AM
I used the Consensus Big Board to grade every team's draft using two different methods.
I also talked about "groupthink" and why the Consensus Board has historical validity
The 2026 NFL Consensus Big Board Grades The Draft
www.wideleft.football/p/the-2026-n...
I also talked about "groupthink" and why the Consensus Board has historical validity
The 2026 NFL Consensus Big Board Grades The Draft
www.wideleft.football/p/the-2026-n...
"Come elections in November 2025 and November 2026, we will look back on the big ugly bill as part of the springboard that gave rise to a new American consensus.”
✍️ @normeisen.bsky.social
✍️ @normeisen.bsky.social
Where we go from here
Some July 4th Optimism—Publisher’s Roundup 25
contrarian.substack.com
July 7, 2025 at 1:36 PM
"Come elections in November 2025 and November 2026, we will look back on the big ugly bill as part of the springboard that gave rise to a new American consensus.”
✍️ @normeisen.bsky.social
✍️ @normeisen.bsky.social
My latest blog piece. Marra and Burnham now insist there needs to be a 'consensus' on independence before there can be an indyref. There was previously a cross-party consensus on a trigger for an indyref. What happened to it?
weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2026/09/25/w...
weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2026/09/25/w...
What happened to the old consensus on an indyref trigger?
I was supposed to have been going to Lochgilphead today to do an event for Aye Fyne, but here I am at home nursing a very painful ankle and hirpling gingerly about the house – but only when I…
weegingerdug.wordpress.com
September 25, 2026 at 6:00 PM
My latest blog piece. Marra and Burnham now insist there needs to be a 'consensus' on independence before there can be an indyref. There was previously a cross-party consensus on a trigger for an indyref. What happened to it?
weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2026/09/25/w...
weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2026/09/25/w...
Same deal, with 2025 and 2026 estimated unit sales. At the end of 2022, analysts estimated TSLA would sell 2.92mm units in 2025 and 3.75mm units in 2026. Shares traded at about $115. Now? 30% and 35% lower for sales but the stock is 3x higher.
Lol. Lmao.
Lol. Lmao.
February 5, 2025 at 2:13 PM
Same deal, with 2025 and 2026 estimated unit sales. At the end of 2022, analysts estimated TSLA would sell 2.92mm units in 2025 and 3.75mm units in 2026. Shares traded at about $115. Now? 30% and 35% lower for sales but the stock is 3x higher.
Lol. Lmao.
Lol. Lmao.
There is an elite consensus against trans people and in favor of collaboration with fascism. This consensus has got to be defied and fought against for the next two years and any candidate who sells out LGBTQ+ people *must* be targeted for 2026 so these quislings can be replaced in a blue wave.
December 11, 2024 at 10:04 PM
There is an elite consensus against trans people and in favor of collaboration with fascism. This consensus has got to be defied and fought against for the next two years and any candidate who sells out LGBTQ+ people *must* be targeted for 2026 so these quislings can be replaced in a blue wave.
G&R: “.. we believe the market has it almost exactly backwards. The consensus assumes that the end of the war will mark the end of the crisis. We believe it may mark the moment the crisis finally arrives.”
@jessefelder.com
thefelderreport.com/2026/09/05/t...
@jessefelder.com
thefelderreport.com/2026/09/05/t...
September 5, 2026 at 1:48 PM
G&R: “.. we believe the market has it almost exactly backwards. The consensus assumes that the end of the war will mark the end of the crisis. We believe it may mark the moment the crisis finally arrives.”
@jessefelder.com
thefelderreport.com/2026/09/05/t...
@jessefelder.com
thefelderreport.com/2026/09/05/t...
“.. In our view, stable incoming headline inflation and strong GDP data coupled with the lack of consensus among the 2026 Fed voting members will lead to a ‘do nothing’ approach for the first half of 2026 ..”
@yardeniresearch.bsky.social
@yardeniresearch.bsky.social
January 13, 2026 at 11:20 PM
“.. In our view, stable incoming headline inflation and strong GDP data coupled with the lack of consensus among the 2026 Fed voting members will lead to a ‘do nothing’ approach for the first half of 2026 ..”
@yardeniresearch.bsky.social
@yardeniresearch.bsky.social
You decide!
270 to win has created this great interactive map to that allows you to create what winning back the house looks like.
What does having control of the House look like to you ?
270 to win has created this great interactive map to that allows you to create what winning back the house looks like.
What does having control of the House look like to you ?
Consensus 2026 House of Representatives Election Forecast - 270toWin
The current consensus forecast for the 2026 House elections. All 435 seats will be contested.
www.270towin.com
June 15, 2026 at 10:52 PM
You decide!
270 to win has created this great interactive map to that allows you to create what winning back the house looks like.
What does having control of the House look like to you ?
270 to win has created this great interactive map to that allows you to create what winning back the house looks like.
What does having control of the House look like to you ?
Italy Secures Consensus at UN for Milano–Cortina 2026 Olympic Truce Resolution
www.onestnetwork.com/post/italy-s...
www.onestnetwork.com/post/italy-s...
Italy Secures Consensus at UN for Milano–Cortina 2026 Olympic Truce Resolution
The UN General Assembly adopted the Olympic Truce resolution for the Milano–Cortina 2026 Winter Games by consensus, an outcome facilitated by Italy as host nation. With 165 co-sponsors, the resolution...
www.onestnetwork.com
November 19, 2025 at 11:32 PM
Italy Secures Consensus at UN for Milano–Cortina 2026 Olympic Truce Resolution
www.onestnetwork.com/post/italy-s...
www.onestnetwork.com/post/italy-s...
tracking picks vs consensus here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
2026 Consensus Board (134 Boards)
docs.google.com
April 24, 2026 at 12:09 AM
tracking picks vs consensus here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
I love this google sheet which lets you know that at least five players have been drafted 200 spots higher than their consensus big board ranking docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
2026 NFL Draft Live Tracker & Consensus Big Board
docs.google.com
April 25, 2026 at 3:14 PM
I love this google sheet which lets you know that at least five players have been drafted 200 spots higher than their consensus big board ranking docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Here’s the conundrum, 1979-2026: government after government has tried to tear down the postwar consensus, to unleash the power of the free market. The problem is that the public like and want the postwar consensus and they’ll annihilate any government that tries to live their dream in reality.
June 4, 2026 at 12:52 PM
Here’s the conundrum, 1979-2026: government after government has tried to tear down the postwar consensus, to unleash the power of the free market. The problem is that the public like and want the postwar consensus and they’ll annihilate any government that tries to live their dream in reality.
SEP adds 25 bps to rate forecast for 2026, 50 bps to 2027/2028. Those are both more hawkish than expected by 25 bps. 2029 forecast 25 bps above economist consensus.
September 16, 2026 at 6:03 PM
SEP adds 25 bps to rate forecast for 2026, 50 bps to 2027/2028. Those are both more hawkish than expected by 25 bps. 2029 forecast 25 bps above economist consensus.