Delicious interactive data products by time slice and exceedance probability, I love it so much - THANK YOU NOAA
January 29, 2026 at 7:47 PM
Delicious interactive data products by time slice and exceedance probability, I love it so much - THANK YOU NOAA
⚡️Update: Radiation levels within limits after Chornobyl drone strike, Zelensky says.
"As of now, there is no exceedance of radiation safety limits. But there is clearly an exceedance of even Russia's already sky-high arrogance," Zelensky said.
"As of now, there is no exceedance of radiation safety limits. But there is clearly an exceedance of even Russia's already sky-high arrogance," Zelensky said.
'Sky-high arrogance' — Russian drone strikes spent nuclear fuel storage in Chornobyl, Energoatom says
The attack partially destroyed the repository's container reception building, though no spent nuclear fuel was being stored there at the time.
kyivindependent.com
June 7, 2026 at 9:13 AM
⚡️Update: Radiation levels within limits after Chornobyl drone strike, Zelensky says.
"As of now, there is no exceedance of radiation safety limits. But there is clearly an exceedance of even Russia's already sky-high arrogance," Zelensky said.
"As of now, there is no exceedance of radiation safety limits. But there is clearly an exceedance of even Russia's already sky-high arrogance," Zelensky said.
Guess how that turned out.
Limiting Overshoot - Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return
Limiting global warming to 1.5°C remains a cornerstone of the Paris Agreement, yet under current policies and alternative near-term trajectories, exceedance of 1.5°C is now widely assessed as unavoida...
www.unep.org
September 10, 2026 at 10:59 PM
Guess how that turned out.
Congratulations to my student, Maggie Ma, for publishing her first #rstats package {ggincerta} on CRAN 🥳
Spatial uncertainty visualisation (bivariate, pixel, exceedance, glyph), like {Vizumap}, but fully integrated with ggplot2 -- a much simpler API with all the advantages of the ggplot2 system.
Spatial uncertainty visualisation (bivariate, pixel, exceedance, glyph), like {Vizumap}, but fully integrated with ggplot2 -- a much simpler API with all the advantages of the ggplot2 system.
November 16, 2025 at 4:51 AM
Congratulations to my student, Maggie Ma, for publishing her first #rstats package {ggincerta} on CRAN 🥳
Spatial uncertainty visualisation (bivariate, pixel, exceedance, glyph), like {Vizumap}, but fully integrated with ggplot2 -- a much simpler API with all the advantages of the ggplot2 system.
Spatial uncertainty visualisation (bivariate, pixel, exceedance, glyph), like {Vizumap}, but fully integrated with ggplot2 -- a much simpler API with all the advantages of the ggplot2 system.
Wow. From NOAA:
“Estimated rainfall amounts from Helene across the southern Appalachians had an Annual Recurrence Interval greater than 1000-years over a wide area; meaning there is less than a 0.1% chance (annual exceedance probability) of that happening in any given year.”
“Estimated rainfall amounts from Helene across the southern Appalachians had an Annual Recurrence Interval greater than 1000-years over a wide area; meaning there is less than a 0.1% chance (annual exceedance probability) of that happening in any given year.”
October 4, 2024 at 1:19 AM
Wow. From NOAA:
“Estimated rainfall amounts from Helene across the southern Appalachians had an Annual Recurrence Interval greater than 1000-years over a wide area; meaning there is less than a 0.1% chance (annual exceedance probability) of that happening in any given year.”
“Estimated rainfall amounts from Helene across the southern Appalachians had an Annual Recurrence Interval greater than 1000-years over a wide area; meaning there is less than a 0.1% chance (annual exceedance probability) of that happening in any given year.”
#NowReading
New report from UNEP: 'Limiting Overshoot, Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return’
Details ⬇️
New report from UNEP: 'Limiting Overshoot, Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return’
Details ⬇️
Global warming is set to cross 1.5°C, pushing climate risks and impacts to increasingly dangerous heights, a new UNEP report warns.
Predicted impacts include extreme weather and threats to human health and economies.
Predicted impacts include extreme weather and threats to human health and economies.
September 2, 2026 at 1:21 PM
#NowReading
New report from UNEP: 'Limiting Overshoot, Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return’
Details ⬇️
New report from UNEP: 'Limiting Overshoot, Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return’
Details ⬇️
Some terrifically titled papers from a discovered collection of NASA research documents found in a skip
(with thanks to @juliarez.placid.horse)
(with thanks to @juliarez.placid.horse)
February 3, 2026 at 9:34 AM
Some terrifically titled papers from a discovered collection of NASA research documents found in a skip
(with thanks to @juliarez.placid.horse)
(with thanks to @juliarez.placid.horse)
You can find @unep.org's new report 'Limiting Overshoot - Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return' here: www.unep.org/resources/li...
Limiting Overshoot - Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return
Limiting global warming to 1.5°C remains a cornerstone of the Paris Agreement, yet under current policies and alternative near-term trajectories, exceedance of 1.5°C is now widely assessed as unavoida...
www.unep.org
September 2, 2026 at 5:13 AM
You can find @unep.org's new report 'Limiting Overshoot - Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return' here: www.unep.org/resources/li...
And another beautiful @unep.org Climate report completely failing to cover aerosols...
'Limiting overshoot
Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C
and pathways towards return'
Reducing air pollution increases warming, especially regionally!
'Limiting overshoot
Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C
and pathways towards return'
Reducing air pollution increases warming, especially regionally!
September 2, 2026 at 3:04 PM
And another beautiful @unep.org Climate report completely failing to cover aerosols...
'Limiting overshoot
Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C
and pathways towards return'
Reducing air pollution increases warming, especially regionally!
'Limiting overshoot
Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C
and pathways towards return'
Reducing air pollution increases warming, especially regionally!
The report is here: www.unep.org/resources/li...
Read it, and weep.
And when you're done let's take back our children's future.
Read it, and weep.
And when you're done let's take back our children's future.
Limiting Overshoot - Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return
Limiting global warming to 1.5°C remains a cornerstone of the Paris Agreement, yet under current policies and alternative near-term trajectories, exceedance of 1.5°C is now widely assessed as unavoida...
www.unep.org
September 2, 2026 at 6:06 AM
The report is here: www.unep.org/resources/li...
Read it, and weep.
And when you're done let's take back our children's future.
Read it, and weep.
And when you're done let's take back our children's future.
The D.C. plane collision is more evidence that it's time for a much broader review of aviation safety protocols, Capt. C.B. “Sully” Sullenberger says on CNN.
"A single mistake, a single error, a single exceedance should not cause a fatal crash."
"A single mistake, a single error, a single exceedance should not cause a fatal crash."
January 31, 2025 at 3:54 PM
The D.C. plane collision is more evidence that it's time for a much broader review of aviation safety protocols, Capt. C.B. “Sully” Sullenberger says on CNN.
"A single mistake, a single error, a single exceedance should not cause a fatal crash."
"A single mistake, a single error, a single exceedance should not cause a fatal crash."
Here is this November compared to all prior Novembers in the record. This year saw the largest exceedance of a prior November record by far in the JRA-55 dataset.
December 2, 2023 at 10:33 PM
Here is this November compared to all prior Novembers in the record. This year saw the largest exceedance of a prior November record by far in the JRA-55 dataset.
▪️Exceedance of organic substances was observed in the sections: Salgir River (within Simferopol and below the urban-type settlement GRES), village Pionerskoye.
▪️Exceedance of petroleum products was found in the section: Salgir River, 0.1 km below the urban-type settlement GRES.
4/4
▪️Exceedance of petroleum products was found in the section: Salgir River, 0.1 km below the urban-type settlement GRES.
4/4
October 12, 2025 at 4:09 PM
▪️Exceedance of organic substances was observed in the sections: Salgir River (within Simferopol and below the urban-type settlement GRES), village Pionerskoye.
▪️Exceedance of petroleum products was found in the section: Salgir River, 0.1 km below the urban-type settlement GRES.
4/4
▪️Exceedance of petroleum products was found in the section: Salgir River, 0.1 km below the urban-type settlement GRES.
4/4
Limiting Overshoot - Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return
Authors: UNEP
Limiting global warming to 1.5°C remains a cornerstone of the Paris Agreement, yet under current policies and alternative near-term trajectories, exceedance of 1.5°C is now widely assessed as unavoidable.
Authors: UNEP
Limiting global warming to 1.5°C remains a cornerstone of the Paris Agreement, yet under current policies and alternative near-term trajectories, exceedance of 1.5°C is now widely assessed as unavoidable.
Limiting Overshoot - Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return
Limiting global warming to 1.5°C remains a cornerstone of the Paris Agreement, yet under current policies and alternative near-term trajectories, exceedance of 1.5°C is now widely assessed as unavoida...
www.unep.org
September 4, 2026 at 11:58 AM
Limiting Overshoot - Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return
Authors: UNEP
Limiting global warming to 1.5°C remains a cornerstone of the Paris Agreement, yet under current policies and alternative near-term trajectories, exceedance of 1.5°C is now widely assessed as unavoidable.
Authors: UNEP
Limiting global warming to 1.5°C remains a cornerstone of the Paris Agreement, yet under current policies and alternative near-term trajectories, exceedance of 1.5°C is now widely assessed as unavoidable.
In the midst of an energy crisis that exposes the risks of oil, coal and gas dependency, and amid new warnings of a looming 1.5°C exceedance, Bonn climate talks must sustain political momentum for a just transition away from fossil fuels & accelerate efforts to end forest destruction
PRESS RELEASE
PRESS RELEASE
Bonn climate talks a chance to sustain just transition, forest protection momentum - Greenpeace International
UN climate talks must sustain political momentum towards a just transition away from fossil fuels and efforts to end forest destruction by 2030 amid new warnings of a looming 1.5°C exceedance.
www.greenpeace.org
June 8, 2026 at 10:16 AM
In the midst of an energy crisis that exposes the risks of oil, coal and gas dependency, and amid new warnings of a looming 1.5°C exceedance, Bonn climate talks must sustain political momentum for a just transition away from fossil fuels & accelerate efforts to end forest destruction
PRESS RELEASE
PRESS RELEASE
A new report out from @unep.org documents our collective failure to limit global heating to 1.5 degrees and makes an urgent call for action to return from overshoot before it's too late. "Overshoot is not an argument for resignation, but rather for urgency to action." www.unep.org/resources/li...
Limiting Overshoot - Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return
Limiting global warming to 1.5°C remains a cornerstone of the Paris Agreement, yet under current policies and alternative near-term trajectories, exceedance of 1.5°C is now widely assessed as unavoida...
www.unep.org
September 3, 2026 at 10:50 AM
A new report out from @unep.org documents our collective failure to limit global heating to 1.5 degrees and makes an urgent call for action to return from overshoot before it's too late. "Overshoot is not an argument for resignation, but rather for urgency to action." www.unep.org/resources/li...
"Even if we cannot avoid overshooting 1.5°C, the 1.5°C target remains relevant. Every fraction of a degree counts, and global climate efforts must therefore focus on limiting the exceedance of 1.5°C and returning to safe levels as quickly as possible."
Climate action is falling terribly short
Time to bury the 1.5C goal?
Absolutely not - why the 1.5 goal must prevail
(even when global warming exceeds 1.5C)
My opinion for Project Syndicate 👇
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/a...
Time to bury the 1.5C goal?
Absolutely not - why the 1.5 goal must prevail
(even when global warming exceeds 1.5C)
My opinion for Project Syndicate 👇
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/a...
The 1.5°C Target for Global Warming Must Prevail | by Joeri Rogelj - Project Syndicate
Joeri Rogelj argues that the threshold established by the Paris agreement remains crucial – even if it is breached.
www.project-syndicate.org
November 19, 2024 at 8:58 PM
"Even if we cannot avoid overshooting 1.5°C, the 1.5°C target remains relevant. Every fraction of a degree counts, and global climate efforts must therefore focus on limiting the exceedance of 1.5°C and returning to safe levels as quickly as possible."
Additionally, an exceedance of the maximum permissible concentration of harmful benzene - a carcinogen that accumulates in the body - has been recorded in Tuapse.
This could have been avoided - had Russia not exacted an illegal and genocidal invasion of its neighbour.
3/3
This could have been avoided - had Russia not exacted an illegal and genocidal invasion of its neighbour.
3/3
April 28, 2026 at 12:04 PM
Additionally, an exceedance of the maximum permissible concentration of harmful benzene - a carcinogen that accumulates in the body - has been recorded in Tuapse.
This could have been avoided - had Russia not exacted an illegal and genocidal invasion of its neighbour.
3/3
This could have been avoided - had Russia not exacted an illegal and genocidal invasion of its neighbour.
3/3
Eyeballing NOAA data, it looks to me like the highest water level yet reached at the Atlantic City gauge is about a 1-in-2 year event (about 50% chance per year), about 5 times more likely due to sea level rise than it would have been 60 years ago
Extreme Water Levels - Atlantic City, NJ - NOAA Tides & Currents
Extreme Storm Tides, a map of coastal exceedance probability levels
tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov
September 26, 2026 at 2:21 PM
Eyeballing NOAA data, it looks to me like the highest water level yet reached at the Atlantic City gauge is about a 1-in-2 year event (about 50% chance per year), about 5 times more likely due to sea level rise than it would have been 60 years ago
If you haven't yet taken time to read the UNEP report 'Limiting Overshoot: Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return' then do.
Limiting Overshoot - Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return
Limiting global warming to 1.5°C remains a cornerstone of the Paris Agreement, yet under current policies and alternative near-term trajectories, exceedance of 1.5°C is now widely assessed as unavoida...
www.unep.org
September 3, 2026 at 9:49 AM
If you haven't yet taken time to read the UNEP report 'Limiting Overshoot: Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return' then do.
"Limiting global warming to 1.5°C remains a cornerstone of the Paris Agreement, yet under current policies and alternative near-term trajectories, exceedance of 1.5°C is now widely assessed as unavoidable"
Sobering report and a wake up call
www.unep.org/resources/li...
Sobering report and a wake up call
www.unep.org/resources/li...
Limiting Overshoot - Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return
Limiting global warming to 1.5°C remains a cornerstone of the Paris Agreement, yet under current policies and alternative near-term trajectories, exceedance of 1.5°C is now widely assessed as unavoida...
www.unep.org
September 2, 2026 at 2:17 PM
"Limiting global warming to 1.5°C remains a cornerstone of the Paris Agreement, yet under current policies and alternative near-term trajectories, exceedance of 1.5°C is now widely assessed as unavoidable"
Sobering report and a wake up call
www.unep.org/resources/li...
Sobering report and a wake up call
www.unep.org/resources/li...
UN report here www.unep.org/resources/li...
Limiting Overshoot - Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return
Limiting global warming to 1.5°C remains a cornerstone of the Paris Agreement, yet under current policies and alternative near-term trajectories, exceedance of 1.5°C is now widely assessed as unavoida...
www.unep.org
September 2, 2026 at 8:49 PM
UN report here www.unep.org/resources/li...
We wrote an article about this: www.nature.com/articles/ncl...
Importance of the pre-industrial baseline for likelihood of exceeding Paris goals - Nature Climate Change
In order to meet internationally agreed temperature limits, it is important to have a defined baseline. This study shows for low-emission scenarios the likelihood and timing of exceedance are highly d...
www.nature.com
January 31, 2025 at 4:45 AM
We wrote an article about this: www.nature.com/articles/ncl...
a “thousand year storm” is NOT AN INTERVAL ITS AN ANNUAL EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY
September 19, 2025 at 1:34 PM
a “thousand year storm” is NOT AN INTERVAL ITS AN ANNUAL EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY