like it's one of those things that would end up creating an instant american failstate
January 14, 2026 at 9:26 PM
like it's one of those things that would end up creating an instant american failstate
It's genuinely wild that people think an American failstate is more likely than a realignment
this is a sentiment you hear largely from centrists who have never had any ambition other than a long national decline
February 21, 2025 at 1:57 AM
It's genuinely wild that people think an American failstate is more likely than a realignment
what if we did the failstate of Nixon, Carter, and LBJ at the same time?
Trump becoming a flanderized version of Jimmy Carter is sorta funny
The belief in trans rights entering the median voters body as Trump makes gas cost $8/gallon
March 9, 2026 at 1:37 AM
what if we did the failstate of Nixon, Carter, and LBJ at the same time?
Actually think probably the biggest risk in the short term, particularly if we actually get some kind of Iranian failstate, is 400+ kilos of loose HEU
Like, this is honestly, the biggest risk from the strikes on Iran. Every fucking tinpot dictator at the strikes and be like resume change? No fucking way, get me some nukes.
Kim Jong-un (watching the Mideast): build me another dozen thermonuclear weapons
March 2, 2026 at 3:05 AM
Actually think probably the biggest risk in the short term, particularly if we actually get some kind of Iranian failstate, is 400+ kilos of loose HEU
The failstate of too much worldbuilding is that your eyes glaze over at a pointless description of a battle no one cares about. The failstate of too little worldbuilding is this map. I prefer the former, I would love to flood your bookshelf with the former
June 21, 2025 at 8:33 PM
The failstate of too much worldbuilding is that your eyes glaze over at a pointless description of a battle no one cares about. The failstate of too little worldbuilding is this map. I prefer the former, I would love to flood your bookshelf with the former
in conclusion, the failstate was reached in November 2024; all that remains is finding out which flavors of bad we land on
April 5, 2026 at 7:51 PM
in conclusion, the failstate was reached in November 2024; all that remains is finding out which flavors of bad we land on
Yeah, losing the Exorbitant Privilege™ is probably the most catastrophic tail risk of this moment, short of like an American Failstate and an RFKlague
The end of dollar hegemony will transform U.S. debt from a fiscal drag into a high-yield fusion bomb.
For decades dollarization has generated structural demand for U.S. treasuries, depressing the interest rates the U.S. needs to offer to service its debt.
For decades dollarization has generated structural demand for U.S. treasuries, depressing the interest rates the U.S. needs to offer to service its debt.
one thing that I think we really don't think about is if Trump fucks up America's macro privileges or role in the international system and Americans are forced to end up dealing with a economic system that doesn't allow for the same old fiscal fixes as before
November 16, 2025 at 7:39 PM
Yeah, losing the Exorbitant Privilege™ is probably the most catastrophic tail risk of this moment, short of like an American Failstate and an RFKlague
Honestly a miracle we avoided an Imperial Japanese failstate where the US, ROC, and USSR are fighting organized pockets of IJA in 1947 or something
August 8, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Honestly a miracle we avoided an Imperial Japanese failstate where the US, ROC, and USSR are fighting organized pockets of IJA in 1947 or something
I think a genuine realignment of electorate preferences is much more likely than a failstate
November 21, 2025 at 4:40 PM
I think a genuine realignment of electorate preferences is much more likely than a failstate
Its probably not great when one of the 2 partners is openly going for failstate, and the other is just bored and up for whatever
March 7, 2026 at 10:11 PM
Its probably not great when one of the 2 partners is openly going for failstate, and the other is just bored and up for whatever
the failstate of the exception
February 15, 2025 at 8:56 PM
the failstate of the exception
Interessiert das in diesem Failstate noch jemanden?
January 31, 2025 at 9:34 PM
Interessiert das in diesem Failstate noch jemanden?
"explosive" seems like a failstate in this instance
Explosive Ass Sex 24 Ladies 8 Hours 2-Disc Set
March 2, 2026 at 3:29 AM
"explosive" seems like a failstate in this instance
i know Canada doesn't want to think about this but we genuinely need to be prepared for either an American failstate *or* an expansionist NatCon regime
really do think it's time for both the Tories, Liberals, and NDP to start talking about what we're going to do in order to establish indigenous intelligence gathering + military defense over relying on the Yanks
February 22, 2025 at 2:48 AM
i know Canada doesn't want to think about this but we genuinely need to be prepared for either an American failstate *or* an expansionist NatCon regime
funniest possible failstate is defaulting on the national debt while simultaneously trying to do executive maximalism everywhere else
Debt ceiling reactivates January 1st, and we'll hit it almost instantly. Fortunately Trump's steady hand will be navigating us through these rocky waters.
November 26, 2024 at 8:15 PM
funniest possible failstate is defaulting on the national debt while simultaneously trying to do executive maximalism everywhere else
when you realize that pretty much every endo and hrt provider still treats transition as a failstate to be avoided and that their primary concern is that we don't have "too much" change so we can detransition later it all starts making a lot more sense
September 30, 2026 at 8:01 PM
when you realize that pretty much every endo and hrt provider still treats transition as a failstate to be avoided and that their primary concern is that we don't have "too much" change so we can detransition later it all starts making a lot more sense
Machtergreifung. Und wieder ist die @cducsu.de Steigbügelhalter.
Ein schwarzer Tag für die Demokratie in Europa.
#Magdeburg #failState #Sachsen-Anhalt
Ein schwarzer Tag für die Demokratie in Europa.
#Magdeburg #failState #Sachsen-Anhalt
October 6, 2026 at 5:13 PM
Machtergreifung. Und wieder ist die @cducsu.de Steigbügelhalter.
Ein schwarzer Tag für die Demokratie in Europa.
#Magdeburg #failState #Sachsen-Anhalt
Ein schwarzer Tag für die Demokratie in Europa.
#Magdeburg #failState #Sachsen-Anhalt
I don't think they can consolidate a sustainable regime but they can fuck up enough to get to a failstate and that is Not Good
February 16, 2025 at 6:24 AM
I don't think they can consolidate a sustainable regime but they can fuck up enough to get to a failstate and that is Not Good
American Failstate → RFKlauge → Losing the Exorbitant Privelege → Pete Hegseth Loses A Stupid War → CI/CT Calamity
probably decent primer for "really bad tail risks in order of badness"
probably decent primer for "really bad tail risks in order of badness"
November 16, 2025 at 7:42 PM
American Failstate → RFKlauge → Losing the Exorbitant Privelege → Pete Hegseth Loses A Stupid War → CI/CT Calamity
probably decent primer for "really bad tail risks in order of badness"
probably decent primer for "really bad tail risks in order of badness"
but the failstate outcomes are uh, very, very bad
modal Trump outcome is moderate to severe misery, a real but not existential rise in political violence, and Dem landslides in 2026 and 2028 with some worrying litigation that doesn't reverse the outcome
November 13, 2024 at 12:50 AM
but the failstate outcomes are uh, very, very bad
But I think Amerimaidan is much more likely than a failstate
November 21, 2025 at 5:23 PM
But I think Amerimaidan is much more likely than a failstate
if brandon gets arrested this is probably the failstate for america
wonder what happens when high ranking Democrats end up on the list
November 9, 2024 at 11:14 AM
if brandon gets arrested this is probably the failstate for america